Stat Correction & Final 4 scenarios

I was going through the score sheet trying to figure out just how exactly we could wind up with a 5-way tie for 2nd place.  In the course of doing that, something didn't seem to be adding up.  My first check was to recalculate the points I had scored everyone, and those looked to be correct.  That's the good news.  The points rankings that I send out with each update are right.  That's good because that's what really determines the winner.

From there, I re-calculated the remaining 8 scenarios across everyone's picks and the results came out a little different.  My guess is that when I was making the initial spreadsheet I extended the points one cell too far.  There are a series of "if" statements that assign points, and for the Sweet 16 games, it assigns 4 points to the winner, 8 points to the Elite 8 winners, 16 to the semi-final winners, and 32 to the champion.  I must have messed up the point allocations there.   The good news is that I doesn't look like I screwed it too bad, since the same people as before can still win, just different places.  So, here's how all 8 scenarios in the Final 4 can play out.

Loyola-Chicago beats Villanova

Irene H. #7 wins 1st place.

Dennis R. wins 2nd place.

Larry G. #2 wins 3rd place.

Winner of tie-breaker between Larry G. #5 & Hal R. #2 wins 4th place.

Loyola-Chicago beats Kansas

Andrew D.#2 wins 1st place.

Kirt R. #2 wins 2nd place.

Winner of tie-breaker between Max A. #3 & Jeff Sag. #2 wins 3rd place.

Loser of tie-breaker between Max A. #3 & Jeff Sag. #2 wins 4th place.

  

Michigan beats Villanova

Larry G. #2 wins 1st place.

Hal R. #2 wins 2nd place.

Bosun S. wins 3rd place.

Irene H. #6 wins 4th place.

Michigan beats Kansas

Larry G. #2 wins 1st place.

Hal R. #2 wins 2nd place.

Bosun S. wins 3rd place.

Kirt R. #2 wins 4th place.

Villanova beats Loyola-Chicago

Larry G. #5 wins 1st place.

Miguel D. wins 2nd place.

Winner of 4-way tie-breaker between Scott K.#1, Malcolm X. #1, Jeff M. & Daisy N. #13 wins 3rd place.

2nd place of 4-way tie-breaker between Scott K.#1, Malcolm X. #1, Jeff M. & Daisy N. #13 wins 4th place.

Villanova beats Michigan

Malcolm X. #1 wins 1st place.

Chad L. #3 wins 2nd place.

Adam E. wins 3rd place.

Grant F. wins 4th place.

Kansas beats Loyola-Chicago

Andrew D. #2 wins 1st place.

Kirt R. #2 wins 2nd place.

Max A. #3 wins 3rd place.

Michelle L. #3 wins 4th place.

Kansas beats Michigan

Kirt R. #2 wins 1st place.

Andrew D. #2 wins 2nd place.

Michelle L. #3 wins 3rd place.

Max A. #3 wins 4th place.

So, after looking at everything, all the same people that were eligible for the payouts are still eligible.  No new people were added, and nobody was dropped.  Some of the potential payouts got shifted a little bit, but that seems to be it.

Sorry for the confusion.  Glad it didn't totally screw everything up.  Also glad I caught it now before I started telling people that they won only to have the math work out wrong.

Good luck!!!

NCAA - Final 4 set

I think I've made it pretty clear that I have four milestone days in every tournament.  The first is Selection Sunday.  That's like Christmas morning.  It kicks everything off and is ripe with excitement.  The second day didn't really happen this year, and that is when the people that pick only by the seeds get knocked out of all payouts.  The third is my annual get together during the Sweet 16 with Szecho Lin, and the last of those things days is the day that Duke gets knocked out of the pool.  That was today.  I hate Duke.  I'm glad they are out, and I am especially glad that Grayson Allen missed a shot that could've won the game.  He's a dirty player, and that seemed like karmic justice.

What that leaves us with is 20 people left alive for only 4 places.  It also means that there is no way we can have a tie for first, which is nice.  There are still some ways ties could be in play for 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  As a matter of fact, there's a nightmare scenario where a 5-way tie for 2nd could happen.  Let's hope it doesn't come down to that.

So, here are the points totals:

1. Andrew D. #2: 85 (-59)

2. Irene H. #7: 82 (-94)

3. Dennis R.: 79 (-97)

4. Larry G. #2: 78 (-50)

5. Kirt R. #2: 77 (-51)

6. Hal R. #2: 75 (-53)

7. Larry G. #5: 75 (-69)

8. April K.: 74 (-102)

8. Becca T.: 74 (-102)

10. Miguel D.: 73 (-71)

11. Pete J. #3: 73 (-103)

12. Dan S. #2: 73 (-119)

13. Jay H. #3: 72 (-104)

14. Malcolm X #1: 71 (-57)

15. Max A. #3: 71 (-73)

15. Daisy N. #13: 71 (-73)

15. Scott K. #1: 71 (-73)

15. Jeff M.: 71 (-73)

19. Brad R.: 71 (-105)

19. Irene H. #2: 71 (-105)

19. Jeff Sag. #2: 71 (-105)

22. Chad L. #3: 70 (-58)

23. Andrzej R.: 70 (-74)

23. Seth D.: 70 (-74)

25. Scott Has.: 70 (-106)

25. Damien R. #3: 70 (-106)

27. Pete J. #5: 70 (-122)

28. Adam E.: 69 (-59)

29. Rob S. #1: 69 (-75)

30. Amaris S.: 69 (-107)

31. CSU #1: 69 (-123)

32. Michelle L. #3: 68 (-60)

33. Eric V. #2: 68 (-76)

34. Gigi I.: 68 (-108)

35. Grant F.: 67 (-61)

36. Damien R. #2: 67 (-77)

37. David S.: 67 (-109)

37. Jay C.: 67 (-109)

37. Paul W.: 67 (-109)

37. Larry G. #3: 67 (-109)

37. Virginia L.: 67 (-109)

42. Tim N.: 66 (-62)

43. Hutch H. #2: 66 (-78)

43. Josh C.: 66 (-78)

43. Ben P.: 66 (-78)

43. Taima #2: 66 (-78)

47. Roth W.: 66 (-110)

48. Brent E. #3: 65 (-63)

49. Alex N. #2: 65 (-79)

49. Brent E. #2: 65 (-79)

51. Brent E. #1: 65 (-111)

52. Scott K.: 65 (-127)

52. Tomas L. #1: 65 (-127)

54. Bosun S.: 64 (-80)

54. Irene H. #3: 64 (-80)

54. Kirt R. #1: 64 (-80)

57. Hal R. #3: 64 (-112)

57. Larry G. #1: 64 (-112)

59. Kiah H.: 64 (-128)

59. Brent S. #1: 64 (-128)

61. Nikolajs B.: 63 (-81)

61. Brett G. #2: 63 (-81)

61. Kansas C.: 63 (-81)

64. Ben S. #1: 63 (-113)

64. Mindi W.: 63 (-113)

66. Josh D. #1: 63 (-129)

66. Tomas L. #2: 63 (-129)

68. Valerie D.: 62 (-82)

69. Ken Pom: 62 (-114)

69. Wayne D. #3: 62 (-114)

69. Bhav D. #1: 62 (-114)

72. Bhav D. #2: 62 (-130)

73. Pete J. #4: 61 (-67)

74. Missy W. #1: 61 (-83)

74. Josh D. #3: 61 (-83)

74. Jeff Sag. #1: 61 (-83)

74. Elizabeth N. #1: 61 (-83)

74. Michelle L. #2: 61 (-83)

79. Luis B. #1: 61 (-131)

79. Michelle L. #4: 61 (-131)

79. Irene H. #1: 61 (-131)

79. Mike S. #1: 61 (-131)

83. Daisy N. #1: 60 (-84)

83. Hutch H. #1: 60 (-84)

85. Brent S. #2: 60 (-132)

85. Matt N.: 60 (-132)

87. Jim D. #1: 59 (-85)

87. Klei R.: 59 (-85)

89. Ben S. #4: 59 (-117)

89. CSU #2: 59 (-117)

89. E Rucker #2: 59 (-117)

89. Dan S. #1: 59 (-117)

93. Mike S. #2: 59 (-133)

93. Mason A. #2: 59 (-133)

95. Howard S. #2: 58 (-118)

95. Karen C.: 58 (-118)

95. Brad E.: 58 (-118)

95. Ben S. #2: 58 (-118)

95. Trent L.: 58 (-118)

100. David W. #1: 58 (-134)

100. Marc R.: 58 (-134)

100. Scott Her. #2: 58 (-134)

100. Brett G. #4: 58 (-134)

100. Jay H. #1: 58 (-134)

100. Brett G. #1: 58 (-134)

106. Veronica A.: 57 (-87)

106. Irene H. #6: 57 (-87)

108. Ben J. #1: 57 (-119)

108. Ben J. #4: 57 (-119)

108. Joe D. #1: 57 (-119)

111. Howard S. #1: 57 (-135)

111. John M. #2: 57 (-135)

111. Uproxx: 57 (-135)

111. Chris M.: 57 (-135)

115. Max A. #1: 56 (-88)

115. Wayne D. #1: 56 (-88)

115. Pete J. #1: 56 (-88)

115. Jim D. #2: 56 (-88)

115. Taima #1: 56 (-88)

120. Andrew D. #1: 56 (-120)

120. Alex N. #3: 56 (-120)

122. Jaxon S.: 56 (-136)

122. Chad L. #2: 56 (-136)

122. Barack O.: 56 (-136)

122. Kate G.: 56 (-136)

122. Alex N. #1: 56 (-136)

127. Mike McQ.: 55 (-89)

127. Scott Her. #1: 55 (-89)

127. Matt M.: 55 (-89)

130. Luis B. #3: 55 (-121)

131. Nick I.: 55 (-137)

131. Eric V. #1: 55 (-137)

133. Joe D. #2: 54 (-90)

133. Mason A. #1: 54 (-90)

135. Michelle L. #5: 54 (-122)

135. Craig G.: 54 (-122)

137. David W. #2: 54 (-138)

137. Brett G. #3: 54 (-138)

137. Sulbum H.: 54 (-138)

137. Luis B. #2: 54 (-138)

141. Damien R. #1: 53 (-91)

141. William G.: 53 (-91)

143. Jace D.: 53 (-123)

144. Elizabeth N. #2: 53 (-139)

144. Scott K. #2: 53 (-139)

144. Michelle R.: 53 (-139)

147. Joel S.: 52 (-92)

147. Jay H. #2: 52 (-92)

147. Daisy N. #2: 52 (-92)

147. Dustin B.: 52 (-92)

151. Daisy N. #3: 52 (-140)

151. Dylan B.: 52 (-140)

151. Jared B.: 52 (-140)

154. Pete J. #2: 51 (-141)

154. Wayne D. #2: 51 (-141)

156. Daisy N. #6: 50 (-94)

156. Adam S. #2: 50 (-94)

158. Chris T. #2: 50 (-142)

158. Todd K. #1: 50 (-142)

158. Arianna S.: 50 (-142)

161. Mike W.: 49 (-95)

161. Jim W.: 49 (-95)

163. Stefan K. #2: 49 (-127)

163. Daisy N. #7: 49 (-127)

165. Joe D. #4: 49 (-143)

165. Ally H.: 49 (-143)

165. Daisy N. #11: 49 (-143)

165. Missy W. #2: 49 (-143)

169. Mike N.: 48 (-128)

170. Suki I.: 48 (-144)

170. Ray W. #2: 48 (-144)

172. Ben S. #3: 47 (-97)

173. Adam S. #1: 47 (-129)

173. Ben J. #3: 47 (-129)

175. Ava S.: 47 (-145)

175. Jim D. #3: 47 (-145)

175. Irene H. #4: 47 (-145)

175. Michelle L. #1: 47 (-145)

175. Larry G. #4: 47 (-145)

175. Hal R. #1: 47 (-145)

175. Julie S.: 47 (-145)

175. Stefan K. #1: 47 (-145)

183. Allison C.: 46 (-130)

184. Becky H.: 46 (-146)

184. Rob S. #2: 46 (-146)

184. Malcolm X #2: 46 (-146)

184. Alyssa B.: 46 (-146)

184. Szecho L. #2: 46 (-146)

189. Daisy N. #5: 45 (-131)

189. E Rucker #1: 45 (-131)

191. Josh D. #2: 45 (-147)

191. Ben J. #2: 45 (-147)

191. Todd K. #2: 45 (-147)

191. Dane R.: 45 (-147)

191. Daisy N. #4: 45 (-147)

191. Daniel C.: 45 (-147)

191. Chrissy I.: 45 (-147)

198. Alex N. #4: 44 (-148)

198. Jackson I.: 44 (-148)

200. Ryan W.: 43 (-149)

201. Max A. #2: 42 (-134)

202. Ray W. #3: 41 (-135)

203. Brett K. #2: 40 (-152)

203. Daisy N. #10: 40 (-152)

203. Dan D. #2: 40 (-152)

203. Joe D. #3: 40 (-152)

203. Rob I.: 40 (-152)

208. Brett W.: 39 (-153)

209. John M. #3: 38 (-154)

209. Chris T. #1: 38 (-154)

209. Chad L. #5: 38 (-154)

209. Chad L. #1: 38 (-154)

209. Chad L. #4: 38 (-154)

214. Brett K. #1: 37 (-107)

215. Daisy N. #8: 37 (-139)

216. Szecho L. #1: 37 (-155)

216. Ray W. #1: 37 (-155)

218. Dan D. #1: 36 (-156)

218. Irene H. #5: 36 (-156)

220. Daisy N. #9: 35 (-157)

221. John M. #1: 34 (-158)

222. Stephen N.: 33 (-159)

223. Daisy N. #12: 30 (-162)

224. Brett K. #3: 29 (-163)

...and the eliminations matrix:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Adam E.	Syracuse	Syracuse		Syracuse
Adam S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Adam S. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alex N. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alex N. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue	Purdue
Alex N. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse
Alex N. #4	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Allison C.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ally H.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alyssa B.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Amaris S.	Purdue	Purdue	Florida St.	Florida St.
Andrew D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Andrew D. #2			Texas Tech	Purdue
Andrzej R.	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Duke	Duke
April K.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue	Purdue
Arianna S.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ava S.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Clemson	Clemson
Barack O.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Becca T.	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Purdue	Purdue
Becky H.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Florida St.	Florida St.
Ben J. #1	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Ben J. #2	Sweet 16	W. Va.	W. Va.	Clemson
Ben J. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben J. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben P.	Texas A&M	Purdue	Syracuse	Florida St.
Ben S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben S. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben S. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben S. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Bhav D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M
Bhav D. #2	Texas A&M	Florida St.	Florida St.	Florida St.
Bosun S.	Texas Tech	Syracuse		Purdue
Brad E.	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Brad R.	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Brent E. #1	Sweet 16	Kentucky	Kentucky	Syracuse
Brent E. #2	Syracuse	Syracuse	Purdue	Purdue
Brent E. #3	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Purdue	Duke
Brent S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brent S. #2	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Brett G. #1	W. Va.	W. Va.	Texas Tech	Texas Tech
Brett G. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brett G. #3	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Purdue	Purdue
Brett G. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse
Brett K. #1	Sweet 16	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky
Brett K. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Kentucky	Kentucky
Brett K. #3	W. Va.	Clemson	Gonzaga	W. Va.
Brett W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chad L. #1	Sweet 16	Nevada	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Chad L. #2	Sweet 16	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Chad L. #3	Syracuse		Syracuse	Syracuse
Chad L. #4	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Clemson	W. Va.
Chad L. #5	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chris M.	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Chris T. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chris T. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chrissy I.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
Craig G.	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Purdue
CSU #1	Kentucky	Duke	Duke	Duke
CSU #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #1	Clemson	Kentucky	Clemson	Clemson
Daisy N. #10	Sweet 16	Kentucky	Clemson	Purdue
Daisy N. #11	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #12	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #13	Florida St.
Daisy N. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M
Daisy N. #3	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Daisy N. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #5	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #6	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Daisy N. #7	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #8	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #9	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #1	Texas A&M	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Purdue
Damien R. #2	Syracuse	Texas Tech	Syracuse	Texas Tech
Damien R. #3	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Duke	Duke
Dan D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dan D. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dan S. #1	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	W. Va.
Dan S. #2	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Dane R.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daniel C.	Sweet 16	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
David S.	Syracuse	Kentucky	Purdue	Purdue
David W. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
David W. #2	Texas A&M	Syracuse	W. Va.	Gonzaga
Dennis R.	Florida St.		Florida St.	Florida St.
Dustin B.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Dylan B.	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
E Rucker #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
E Rucker #2	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Elizabeth N. #1	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Purdue
Elizabeth N. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Eric V. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Eric V. #2	Purdue	Florida St.	Syracuse	Purdue
Gigi I.	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Gonzaga	Purdue
Grant F.	Clemson	Duke	Purdue
Hal R. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Hal R. #2	Sweet 16		Texas Tech
Hal R. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas Tech	W. Va.
Howard S. #1	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Howard S. #2	Texas A&M	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Hutch H. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M
Hutch H. #2	Sweet 16	Purdue	Florida St.	Florida St.
Irene H. #1	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Purdue	Florida St.
Irene H. #2	Duke	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	Duke
Irene H. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #5	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #6	Clemson	Purdue	Syracuse
Irene H. #7		Florida St.	Purdue	Purdue
Jace D.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jackson I.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jared B.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Jaxon S.	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Jay C.	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Purdue	Purdue
Jay H. #1	W. Va.	W. Va.	Syracuse	Syracuse
Jay H. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M
Jay H. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse
Jeff M.	Duke
Jeff Sag. #1	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Purdue
Jeff Sag. #2	Kentucky	Kentucky
Jim D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim D. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim D. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim W.	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	W. Va.
Joe D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Joe D. #2	W. Va.	W. Va.	Purdue	Purdue
Joe D. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Joe D. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Joel S.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #2	Clemson	Syracuse	Purdue	Purdue
John M. #3	W. Va.	W. Va.	Clemson	Clemson
Josh C.	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Florida St.	Florida St.
Josh D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Josh D. #2	Purdue	Purdue	W. Va.	Clemson
Josh D. #3	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Purdue
Julie S.	W. Va.	Syracuse	Syracuse	W. Va.
Kansas C.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M
Karen C.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Kentucky
Kate G.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ken Pom	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Purdue	Purdue
Kiah H.	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Clemson
Kirt R. #1	Texas A&M	Syracuse	Purdue	Syracuse
Kirt R. #2			Texas Tech
Klei R.	Texas A&M	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Syracuse
Larry G. #1	Sweet 16	Clemson	Duke	Duke
Larry G. #2		Texas Tech		Texas Tech
Larry G. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Larry G. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Larry G. #5	Sweet 16
Luis B. #1	Texas A&M	Purdue	Florida St.	Florida St.
Luis B. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Luis B. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Malcolm X #1
Malcolm X #2	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Purdue	Purdue
Marc R.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mason A. #1	Gonzaga	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
Mason A. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Matt M.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
Matt N.	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Syracuse
Max A. #1	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Max A. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Max A. #3	Texas A&M	Florida St.
Michelle L. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #3	Purdue	Texas Tech
Michelle L. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue	Florida St.
Michelle L. #5	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Michelle R.	Florida St.	Clemson	Texas Tech	Texas Tech
Miguel D.		Syracuse	Purdue	Purdue
Mike McQ.	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky
Mike N.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mike S. #1	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Florida St.
Mike S. #2	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Mike W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mindi W.	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	Texas Tech
Missy W. #1	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Missy W. #2	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
Nick I.	Gonzaga	Clemson	Clemson	Clemson
Nikolajs B.	Florida St.	Florida St.	Florida St.	Florida St.
Paul W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Pete J. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Gonzaga
Pete J. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Kentucky
Pete J. #3	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Pete J. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Pete J. #5	Kentucky	Duke	Florida St.	Florida St.
Ray W. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray W. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray W. #3	Sweet 16	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky
Rob I.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
Rob S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue
Rob S. #2	Sweet 16	W. Va.	Florida St.	Florida St.
Roth W.	Sweet 16	Duke	Duke	Duke
Ryan W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott Has.	Syracuse	Purdue	Purdue	Florida St.
Scott Her. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott Her. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott K.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott K. #1	Syracuse
Scott K. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Seth D.	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Duke	Duke
Stefan K. #1	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
Stefan K. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Stephen N.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Suki I.	Purdue	Clemson	Gonzaga	Purdue
Sulbum H.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Szecho L. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Szecho L. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Taima #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Taima #2	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Syracuse	Syracuse
Tim N.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue
Todd K. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Todd K. #2	Clemson	Clemson	Clemson	Purdue
Tomas L. #1	Texas Tech	Clemson	Syracuse	Syracuse
Tomas L. #2	Gonzaga	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	Syracuse
Trent L.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
Uproxx	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Syracuse
Valerie D.	Gonzaga	Syracuse	Gonzaga	Syracuse
Veronica A.	Syracuse	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Virginia L.	Sweet 16	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Wayne D. #1	Texas A&M	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	Gonzaga
Wayne D. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Wayne D. #3	Purdue	Purdue	Syracuse	Syracuse
William G.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16

There are only 8 ways the rest of the tournament can play out, so the math gets pretty easy.  Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Larry G. #2 (25%)

1.: Andrew D. #2 (25%)

3.: Malcolm X #1 (12.5%)

3.: Kirt R. #2 (12.5%)

3.: Miguel D. (12.5%)

3.: Irene H. #7 (12.5%)

Since there are only 6 people alive, here's how each of them can win:

Larry G. #2:  Michigan wins it all.  Nothing else matters.

Andrew D. #2:  Kansas vs. Loyola-Chicago in the finals.  It doesn't matter who wins.

Malcolm X. #1: Villanova beats Michigan in the finals.

Kirt R. #2: Kansas beats Michigan in the finals.

Miguel D.: Villanova beats Loyola-Chicago in the finals.

Irene H. #7: Loyola-Chicago beats Villanova in the finals.

We'll see how it plays out, but there is somewhat of a chance that Irene H. #7 could still win, despite picking Arizona to win it all.  That's why I say to never give up in this pool.  You are never out until you are mathematically eliminated.  Plus, it would be a great story if Loyola-Chicago actually did win.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd:

1.: Hal R. #2 (25%)

1.: Kirt R. #2 (25%)

3.: Dennis R. (12.5%)

3.: Andrew D. #2 (12.5%)

3.: Chad L. #3 (12.5%)

6.: Malcolm X #1 (2.5%)

6.: Jeff M. (2.5%)

6.: Larry G. #5 (2.5%)

6.: Scott K. #1 (2.5%)

6.: Daisy N. #13 (2.5%)

Notice that the people tied for 6th place have < 1/8 chance of winning despite there only being 8 ways to win?  That's the 5-way tie scenario I was talking about.  It would happen if Villanova beat Loyola-Chicago in the finals.  If it comes down to it, I'll ask for tiebreakers unless you have already submitted one.  I don't like deciding things on tie-breakers, so I hope this doesn't happen.

Here are the probabilities for 3rd place:

1.: Bosun S. (25%)

2.: Max A. #3 (18.75%)

3.: Adam E. (12.5%)

3.: Larry G. #2 (12.5%)

3.: Michelle L. #3 (12.5%)

6.: Jeff Sag. #2 (6.25%)

7.: Malcolm X #1 (2.5%)

7.: Jeff M. (2.5%)

7.: Daisy N. #13 (2.5%)

7.: Larry G. #5 (2.5%)

7.: Scott K. #1 (2.5%)

...and 4th place:

1.: Max A. #3 (18.75%)

2.: Irene H. #6 (12.5%)

2.: Kirt R. #2 (12.5%)

2.: Michelle L. #3 (12.5%)

2.: Grant F. (12.5%)

2.: Hal R. #2 (12.5%)

7.: Jeff Sag. #2 (6.25%)

8.: Malcolm X #1 (2.5%)

8.: Jeff M. (2.5%)

8.: Larry G. #5 (2.5%)

8.: Scott K. #1 (2.5%)

8.: Daisy N. #13 (2.5%)

That's it for now.  I'll be back later this week with what to expect in the Final 4.  Good luck!!!