Well, it should not be a surprise to anyone who got knocked
out today. Since the first game didn't
mean anything at all, and all the eliminations were in yesterday's post, all
you needed to do was read to the end of that and you would know if you were out
or not.
Most years, if people ask me how to win this pool, I usually
say that you have to get the winner right.
I usually add that you probably need to get the other finalist
right. Then, I say that there is usually
a wacky region where a semi-surprise team comes out. You need to get as many points as possible
out of that region to put yourself in contention. This year, there were two regions that met
that description. The South was an
extreme case. No one had Loyola-Chicago
making the Final 4. If you look at the
standings, the people that had Michigan coming out of the West at right at the
top. Tomorrow will really be a
difference-maker. I'm going out on a
limb and say that in order to win this pool, you probably need to go 2/2
tomorrow.
In the South region, there were 32 points possible. The average entry got 5.31 points. That's amazing. The best anyone did was a tie between Nick I.
and Julie S., who both managed to get 12 points. Compliments of 4 points for Loyola-Chicago in
the Elite 8. I don't have a lot of
history to fall back on, but I can't imagine any region in history that is this
bad. Most times, you can get some cheap
points compliments of the #1 seed.
In the West region, we fared better, although not
great. The average bracket got 12.75
points. The best of the bracket was
Bosun S., who managed to get a very respectable 26/32 possible points. As a matter of fact, the only points he lost
were Texas A&M (2 points) in the Sweet 16 and Florida State in the Elite 8
(4 points). That's what is keeping that
entry alive, since he has Michigan State in the Finals, but is still alive for
1st and 3rd place.
For those that are concerned about points, here they are:
...and the elimination matrix:
Here are the updated probabilities for 1st place:
...and 2nd place:
...and 3rd place:
...and 4th place:
That means that there are only 36 people are still alive for
anything. We lost 14 people today. We will lose more tomorrow. The first game of the day is Texas Tech and
Villanova. Here are the eliminations:
If Villanova wins:
If Texas Tech wins:
It looks like there are a few people that appear on a both
lists. This means that you are not
eliminated, but because the points are getting more spread out, you can't be
eligible to win certain places. It's not
the worst place in the world to be.
Remember this is just the first game. Almost everyone needs something in the second
game of the day (Duke / Kansas), but I'll get to that game in the space between
games.
Good luck to everyone!!!!
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Saturday, March 24, 2018
NCAA 2018 - 1/2 the Final 4 decided
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