NCAA DAy IV - Heading into the home stretch

The upsets keep on coming.  Auburn got tortured by Clemson to insure that no region goes to the Sweet 16 strictly by the seeds.  About 60 people got some points, which is a huge total for today.  One person got points for Kansas State, so virtually nothing got decided there.

I'll be quick with the update as I want to spend the bottom part here as an explanation of what comes after the Sweet 16 is set.

Here's the updated standings:

1. Dennis R.: 43 (-83)

2. Brad R.: 43 (-95)

3. Larry G. #2: 42 (-40)

4. Bosun S.: 42 (-64)

5. Matt N.: 42 (-122)

6. Irene H. #2: 41 (-35)

7. Missy W. #1: 41 (-45)

8. Tomas L. #1: 41 (-87)

9. Mindi W.: 41 (-95)

10. Pete J. #3: 41 (-97)

11. David S.: 41 (-99)

12. Bhav D. #2: 40 (-40)

13. Eric V. #2: 40 (-58)

14. Kirt R. #1: 40 (-70)

15. Scott Has.: 40 (-84)

16. Gigi I.: 40 (-90)

17. Ken Pom: 40 (-96)

18. Wayne D. #3: 40 (-98)

19. David W. #2: 40 (-124)

20. Scott Her. #2: 40 (-132)

21. Elizabeth N. #1: 39 (-41)

22. Andrew D. #2: 39 (-53)

23. Irene H. #6: 39 (-65)

23. Jeff Sag. #1: 39 (-65)

23. Luis B. #1: 39 (-65)

26. Ava S.: 39 (-71)

27. Amaris S.: 39 (-89)

27. Irene H. #1: 39 (-89)

29. Ben J. #1: 39 (-93)

30. Joe D. #1: 39 (-101)

31. Dan S. #2: 39 (-113)

32. Pete J. #5: 38 (-28)

33. Daisy N. #1: 38 (-42)

34. Brad E.: 38 (-52)

35. Dustin B.: 38 (-58)

36. Ben P.: 38 (-68)

36. Wayne D. #1: 38 (-68)

38. Jared B.: 38 (-78)

38. Taima #1: 38 (-78)

40. Irene H. #7: 38 (-88)

41. Andrew D. #1: 38 (-102)

42. Alyssa B.: 38 (-120)

43. Barack O.: 38 (-126)

43. Kate G.: 38 (-126)

45. CSU #1: 37 (-29)

46. Malcolm X #1: 37 (-39)

47. Michelle L. #4: 37 (-41)

48. Grant F.: 37 (-43)

49. Alex N. #2: 37 (-45)

49. Brent E. #2: 37 (-45)

49. Josh D. #2: 37 (-45)

49. Kirt R. #2: 37 (-45)

49. Veronica A.: 37 (-45)

54. Mike McQ.: 37 (-51)

55. Adam E.: 37 (-53)

55. Brent E. #3: 37 (-53)

57. Jeff M.: 37 (-55)

58. Rob S. #1: 37 (-57)

59. Stefan K. #1: 37 (-59)

60. Howard S. #1: 37 (-61)

60. Miguel D.: 37 (-61)

62. Daisy N. #13: 37 (-67)

62. Max A. #3: 37 (-67)

62. Nikolajs B.: 37 (-67)

62. Scott K. #1: 37 (-67)

66. Klei R.: 37 (-71)

67. Tomas L. #2: 37 (-91)

68. Brent E. #1: 37 (-97)

68. Michelle R.: 37 (-97)

70. Jay C.: 37 (-99)

71. Dan S. #1: 37 (-103)

71. Larry G. #3: 37 (-103)

71. Paul W.: 37 (-103)

71. Virginia L.: 37 (-103)

75. Missy W. #2: 37 (-109)

76. E Rucker #2: 37 (-111)

76. Luis B. #3: 37 (-111)

78. Mike S. #2: 37 (-115)

79. Ally H.: 37 (-117)

79. Scott K. #2: 37 (-117)

79. Stefan K. #2: 37 (-117)

82. Hal R. #1: 37 (-119)

83. Michelle L. #3: 36 (-40)

84. Valerie D.: 36 (-52)

85. Daisy N. #2: 36 (-54)

85. Max A. #1: 36 (-54)

87. Andrzej R.: 36 (-56)

88. Suki I.: 36 (-62)

89. Hutch H. #2: 36 (-68)

89. Joe D. #2: 36 (-68)

89. Taima #2: 36 (-68)

92. Jim D. #2: 36 (-70)

93. Hutch H. #1: 36 (-74)

94. Chad L. #2: 36 (-76)

95. Jay H. #2: 36 (-78)

95. Joe D. #3: 36 (-78)

97. Becca T.: 36 (-92)

97. Howard S. #2: 36 (-92)

99. Jay H. #3: 36 (-98)

100. Trent L.: 36 (-100)

101. Craig G.: 36 (-104)

102. Jay H. #1: 36 (-116)

103. Jackson I.: 36 (-122)

104. Todd K. #1: 36 (-124)

105. Luis B. #2: 36 (-128)

105. Marc R.: 36 (-128)

107. Irene H. #5: 36 (-150)

108. Jeff Sag. #2: 35 (-37)

109. Josh D. #3: 35 (-41)

110. Nick I.: 35 (-43)

111. Larry G. #5: 35 (-59)

112. Todd K. #2: 35 (-61)

113. Chris M.: 35 (-69)

114. Jim D. #3: 35 (-71)

114. Kansas C.: 35 (-71)

116. Ben S. #4: 35 (-99)

116. Eric V. #1: 35 (-99)

118. Chrissy I.: 35 (-101)

118. Mike S. #1: 35 (-101)

120. Ben S. #1: 35 (-103)

120. Julie S.: 35 (-103)

122. Daniel C.: 35 (-107)

123. Ben J. #2: 35 (-117)

124. Ben J. #3: 35 (-119)

124. Uproxx: 35 (-119)

126. Wayne D. #2: 35 (-123)

127. Pete J. #2: 35 (-125)

128. Brett W.: 35 (-143)

129. Roth W.: 34 (-44)

130. Jaxon S.: 34 (-46)

131. Josh C.: 34 (-48)

131. Malcolm X #2: 34 (-48)

133. Larry G. #1: 34 (-50)

134. Chad L. #3: 34 (-52)

134. Michelle L. #5: 34 (-52)

134. Rob S. #2: 34 (-52)

137. Brent S. #2: 34 (-62)

138. Damien R. #3: 34 (-92)

139. Brett G. #3: 34 (-96)

140. Dylan B.: 34 (-98)

140. Kiah H.: 34 (-98)

142. Karen C.: 34 (-100)

143. Alex N. #1: 34 (-102)

144. Arianna S.: 34 (-108)

144. Ben S. #2: 34 (-108)

146. Brent S. #1: 34 (-120)

147. Chad L. #5: 34 (-144)

148. Hal R. #2: 33 (-43)

149. John M. #2: 33 (-61)

150. Damien R. #2: 33 (-63)

151. Brett G. #2: 33 (-71)

152. Damien R. #1: 33 (-73)

152. Elizabeth N. #2: 33 (-73)

154. Matt M.: 33 (-75)

155. Michelle L. #2: 33 (-77)

156. Scott Her. #1: 33 (-83)

157. Daisy N. #7: 33 (-105)

158. Scott K.: 33 (-121)

159. Larry G. #4: 33 (-123)

160. Irene H. #4: 33 (-131)

161. Daisy N. #11: 33 (-137)

162. Daisy N. #3: 32 (-50)

163. Mike N.: 32 (-58)

164. Seth D.: 32 (-60)

165. Brett G. #1: 32 (-64)

166. Chad L. #4: 32 (-70)

167. Mason A. #1: 32 (-72)

168. Brett K. #2: 32 (-74)

168. Irene H. #3: 32 (-74)

170. Joel S.: 32 (-78)

171. Pete J. #1: 32 (-80)

172. April K.: 32 (-96)

173. Daisy N. #10: 32 (-98)

173. Hal R. #3: 32 (-98)

175. Bhav D. #1: 32 (-104)

175. David W. #1: 32 (-104)

177. Alex N. #3: 32 (-106)

178. Becky H.: 32 (-108)

179. John M. #3: 32 (-114)

180. Brett G. #4: 32 (-124)

181. Dan D. #2: 32 (-126)

181. Sulbum H.: 32 (-126)

183. Chad L. #1: 32 (-128)

184. Ray W. #2: 32 (-130)

185. Chris T. #2: 32 (-136)

186. Jim D. #1: 31 (-51)

187. Jim W.: 31 (-77)

187. William G.: 31 (-77)

189. Mike W.: 31 (-85)

190. CSU #2: 31 (-107)

191. Ben J. #4: 31 (-111)

192. Adam S. #1: 31 (-123)

193. Mason A. #2: 31 (-127)

194. Michelle L. #1: 31 (-135)

195. Rob I.: 30 (-48)

196. Adam S. #2: 30 (-52)

196. Daisy N. #6: 30 (-52)

198. Alex N. #4: 30 (-78)

199. Szecho L. #2: 30 (-116)

200. Allison C.: 30 (-122)

201. John M. #1: 30 (-154)

202. Pete J. #4: 29 (-61)

202. Ray W. #3: 29 (-61)

204. Szecho L. #1: 29 (-87)

205. Daisy N. #5: 29 (-113)

205. Dane R.: 29 (-113)

207. Jace D.: 29 (-123)

207. Josh D. #1: 29 (-123)

209. Ray W. #1: 29 (-149)

210. Dan D. #1: 28 (-66)

211. Chris T. #1: 28 (-80)

212. E Rucker #1: 27 (-65)

213. Daisy N. #9: 27 (-83)

214. Ryan W.: 27 (-131)

215. Tim N.: 26 (-56)

216. Max A. #2: 26 (-64)

217. Daisy N. #12: 26 (-120)

218. Brett K. #1: 25 (-77)

219. Daisy N. #4: 25 (-85)

220. Joe D. #4: 25 (-105)

221. Daisy N. #8: 25 (-129)

222. Ben S. #3: 23 (-91)

223. Brett K. #3: 23 (-103)

223. Stephen N.: 23 (-103)

...and net points:

1. Pete J. #5 (10)

2. CSU #1 (8)

3. Irene H. #2 (6)

4. Larry G. #2 (2)

5. Bhav D. #2 (0)

6. Elizabeth N. #1 (-2)

6. Malcolm X #1 (-2)

6. Jeff Sag. #2 (-2)

9. Missy W. #1 (-4)

9. Daisy N. #1 (-4)

9. Michelle L. #4 (-4)

9. Michelle L. #3 (-4)

13. Grant F. (-6)

13. Josh D. #3 (-6)

15. Alex N. #2 (-8)

15. Brent E. #2 (-8)

15. Josh D. #2 (-8)

15. Kirt R. #2 (-8)

15. Veronica A. (-8)

15. Nick I. (-8)

21. Roth W. (-10)

21. Hal R. #2 (-10)

23. Jaxon S. (-12)

24. Andrew D. #2 (-14)

24. Brad E. (-14)

24. Mike McQ. (-14)

24. Josh C. (-14)

24. Malcolm X #2 (-14)

29. Adam E. (-16)

29. Brent E. #3 (-16)

29. Valerie D. (-16)

29. Larry G. #1 (-16)

33. Eric V. #2 (-18)

33. Jeff M. (-18)

33. Daisy N. #2 (-18)

33. Max A. #1 (-18)

33. Chad L. #3 (-18)

33. Michelle L. #5 (-18)

33. Rob S. #2 (-18)

33. Daisy N. #3 (-18)

33. Rob I. (-18)

42. Dustin B. (-20)

42. Rob S. #1 (-20)

42. Andrzej R. (-20)

42. Jim D. #1 (-20)

46. Bosun S. (-22)

46. Stefan K. #1 (-22)

46. Adam S. #2 (-22)

46. Daisy N. #6 (-22)

50. Howard S. #1 (-24)

50. Miguel D. (-24)

50. Larry G. #5 (-24)

53. Irene H. #6 (-26)

53. Jeff Sag. #1 (-26)

53. Luis B. #1 (-26)

53. Suki I. (-26)

53. Todd K. #2 (-26)

53. Mike N. (-26)

59. Brent S. #2 (-28)

59. John M. #2 (-28)

59. Seth D. (-28)

62. Kirt R. #1 (-30)

62. Ben P. (-30)

62. Wayne D. #1 (-30)

62. Daisy N. #13 (-30)

62. Max A. #3 (-30)

62. Nikolajs B. (-30)

62. Scott K. #1 (-30)

62. Damien R. #2 (-30)

62. Tim N. (-30)

71. Ava S. (-32)

71. Hutch H. #2 (-32)

71. Joe D. #2 (-32)

71. Taima #2 (-32)

71. Brett G. #1 (-32)

71. Pete J. #4 (-32)

71. Ray W. #3 (-32)

78. Klei R. (-34)

78. Jim D. #2 (-34)

78. Chris M. (-34)

81. Jim D. #3 (-36)

81. Kansas C. (-36)

83. Hutch H. #1 (-38)

83. Brett G. #2 (-38)

83. Chad L. #4 (-38)

83. Dan D. #1 (-38)

83. E Rucker #1 (-38)

83. Max A. #2 (-38)

89. Dennis R. (-40)

89. Jared B. (-40)

89. Taima #1 (-40)

89. Chad L. #2 (-40)

89. Damien R. #1 (-40)

89. Elizabeth N. #2 (-40)

89. Mason A. #1 (-40)

96. Jay H. #2 (-42)

96. Joe D. #3 (-42)

96. Matt M. (-42)

96. Brett K. #2 (-42)

96. Irene H. #3 (-42)

101. Scott Has. (-44)

101. Michelle L. #2 (-44)

103. Tomas L. #1 (-46)

103. Joel S. (-46)

103. Jim W. (-46)

103. William G. (-46)

107. Pete J. #1 (-48)

107. Alex N. #4 (-48)

109. Gigi I. (-50)

109. Amaris S. (-50)

109. Irene H. #1 (-50)

109. Irene H. #7 (-50)

109. Scott Her. #1 (-50)

114. Brad R. (-52)

114. Chris T. #1 (-52)

114. Brett K. #1 (-52)

117. Mindi W. (-54)

117. Ben J. #1 (-54)

117. Tomas L. #2 (-54)

117. Mike W. (-54)

121. Pete J. #3 (-56)

121. Ken Pom (-56)

121. Becca T. (-56)

121. Howard S. #2 (-56)

121. Daisy N. #9 (-56)

126. David S. (-58)

126. Wayne D. #3 (-58)

126. Damien R. #3 (-58)

126. Szecho L. #1 (-58)

130. Brent E. #1 (-60)

130. Michelle R. (-60)

130. Daisy N. #4 (-60)

133. Joe D. #1 (-62)

133. Jay C. (-62)

133. Jay H. #3 (-62)

133. Brett G. #3 (-62)

137. Andrew D. #1 (-64)

137. Trent L. (-64)

137. Ben S. #4 (-64)

137. Eric V. #1 (-64)

137. Dylan B. (-64)

137. Kiah H. (-64)

137. April K. (-64)

144. Dan S. #1 (-66)

144. Larry G. #3 (-66)

144. Paul W. (-66)

144. Virginia L. (-66)

144. Chrissy I. (-66)

144. Mike S. #1 (-66)

144. Karen C. (-66)

144. Daisy N. #10 (-66)

144. Hal R. #3 (-66)

153. Craig G. (-68)

153. Ben S. #1 (-68)

153. Julie S. (-68)

153. Alex N. #1 (-68)

153. Ben S. #3 (-68)

158. Missy W. #2 (-72)

158. Daniel C. (-72)

158. Daisy N. #7 (-72)

158. Bhav D. #1 (-72)

158. David W. #1 (-72)

163. Dan S. #2 (-74)

163. E Rucker #2 (-74)

163. Luis B. #3 (-74)

163. Arianna S. (-74)

163. Ben S. #2 (-74)

163. Alex N. #3 (-74)

169. Becky H. (-76)

169. CSU #2 (-76)

171. Mike S. #2 (-78)

172. Matt N. (-80)

172. Ally H. (-80)

172. Scott K. #2 (-80)

172. Stefan K. #2 (-80)

172. Jay H. #1 (-80)

172. Ben J. #4 (-80)

172. Joe D. #4 (-80)

172. Brett K. #3 (-80)

172. Stephen N. (-80)

181. Alyssa B. (-82)

181. Hal R. #1 (-82)

181. Ben J. #2 (-82)

181. John M. #3 (-82)

185. David W. #2 (-84)

185. Ben J. #3 (-84)

185. Uproxx (-84)

185. Daisy N. #5 (-84)

185. Dane R. (-84)

190. Jackson I. (-86)

190. Brent S. #1 (-86)

190. Szecho L. #2 (-86)

193. Barack O. (-88)

193. Kate G. (-88)

193. Todd K. #1 (-88)

193. Wayne D. #2 (-88)

193. Scott K. (-88)

198. Pete J. #2 (-90)

198. Larry G. #4 (-90)

200. Scott Her. #2 (-92)

200. Luis B. #2 (-92)

200. Marc R. (-92)

200. Brett G. #4 (-92)

200. Adam S. #1 (-92)

200. Allison C. (-92)

206. Dan D. #2 (-94)

206. Sulbum H. (-94)

206. Jace D. (-94)

206. Josh D. #1 (-94)

206. Daisy N. #12 (-94)

211. Chad L. #1 (-96)

211. Mason A. #2 (-96)

213. Irene H. #4 (-98)

213. Ray W. #2 (-98)

215. Daisy N. #11 (-104)

215. Chris T. #2 (-104)

215. Michelle L. #1 (-104)

215. Ryan W. (-104)

215. Daisy N. #8 (-104)

220. Brett W. (-108)

221. Chad L. #5 (-110)

222. Irene H. #5 (-114)

223. Ray W. #1 (-120)

224. John M. #1 (-124)

I like how only 4 people have won more points than they've lost.  You've got to hit your upsets to win this thing.  There were no gutless brackets only by the seeds, but I'm happy to think that if there were, they would be getting clobbered today.

All right, after these last two games, the Sweet 16 will be set, and things get a little different in this pool.  Once we know all the teams, I can figure out all the possible ways the tournament can play out.  I then calculate every entries points in each of those scenarios.  From there, I can figure out exactly who is still alive to get to get any of the 4 payouts.  I'll send out a ranking that shows your probability of winning the pool.  As long as that number isn't zero, you are still alive.  If your probability isn't zero, that means that you have at least one path to win (or tie) for the most points in the pool.  I'll do the same for 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  The thing to be aware of is that the probabilities that I send out are really just for 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  So, if you are currently second in the probability standings for 1st, it doesn't mean that is your probability for 2nd place.  The only way you win is if you have 100% probability of 1st, 2nd, etc.  It also  assumes that every outcome is equally possible, so a Michigan / Villanova final is just as likely as a Kansas State / Syracuse final, so take some of the probabilities with a grain of salt.

After that, I can also figure out elimination games, which I will send out.  It will look like:

If Syracuse wins:

Bracket #1 will be mathematically eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

In years past, I couldn't share those spreadsheets, but this year, I'll post a link so you can play around with the matrix all you want.  I can give people a little tutorial on how to use it once it is up.  I'm looking forward to it.

Good luck to everyone!!!!