Friday, March 16, 2018

NCAA DAy II comeplete - I LOVE college basketball!!!!!!!!!


You know how I was looking for at least one upset in every 4 games.  It looks like we got in with Florida State scoring the upset against Missouri.  It was only an 8/9, but it still counts since Florida State was the 9 seed.  I thought that Michael Porter Jr. playing for Missouri was commendable, but may have taken them out of the offense that they were used to playing all season.  For those that weren't familiar, he is a consensus lottery pick in the NBA draft, but because of injuries, he was only playing his third game of the season.  He's too good to NOT play, but he might have caused problems trying to work him into the lineup.  It kind of reminded me of the Duke team with Kyrie Irving.  That was a similar situation, and Duke went out early that year as well (Woo Hoo!).

Another upset was Syracuse over TCU.  This makes it seven years in a row that a play-in winner won a first round game.  I always say that you are giving up points by overlooking that play-in winner.  This year, I guessed it would be St. Bonaventure.  I guess that match-up zone that they play was too hard for TCU to figure out.  I think that always given people problems.  I did see a promotion before the tournament that said to take teams that play in a specific way that is hard to prepare for, and Syracuse fits that bill.

Speaking of upsets, everyone's favorite pick to score the upset of the day was New Mexico State and they came up WAY short.  I blame Seth Davis.  His "Upset Lock of the Day / Kiss of Death Award" went to New Mexico State.  He once again proved that he probably shouldn't be in the business of actually picking games.  He dropped down to 187th in our standings.  That's particularly awful.  Anyway, New Mexico State tried to make it a game in the second half, but they never were in any kind of serious contention.  Too bad.  I would have liked to have seen the Aggies advance.

As for the last game, let me just say that this game is the very reason why I think I run the best pool in the world.  Technically, the standings didn't change one iota because UMBC beat Virginia in the first #16 to beat a #1 in NCAA history.  If you remember, no one in the entire pool picked UMBC to win.  UMBC was the only team in the final 64 that no one picked.  As a result, no one got any points.  However, the net points changed dramatically.  217 people had Virginia in the Sweet 16.  142 people had them in the Elite 8.  112 people (1/2 the field) had them in the Final 4. 71 people had them in the Championship game, and 43 people had them winning it all.  That's almost 20% of the field that just lost their champion.  Bear in mind that those people probably are not mathematically eliminated.  They probably need some really strange things to happen to stay alive, but they are mostly still alive for now.

I will say that this was probably the most excited I got watching a basketball game in about a decade.  I think when UMBC went up 7 early in the second half, I was saying "Enjoy it while you can.  Virginia will probably be up 10 with 10 minutes to go".  UMBC just could not miss though.  They were tied at half time, so UMBC scored 53 points in the second half.  For most Virginia games, that's more than teams get all game.  At one point in the second half, the announcers said that 13 points was the biggest deficit they had all season.  Then UMBC stretched that to 14 points - and then more.  As time wound down, I kept thinking that Virginia didn't have that extra gear where they could crank up the offense really fast.  It's just not part of their DNA, and when they needed it, they couldn't do it.  I thought that might be their Achilles heel, I just thought it would come against Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

UMBC also was doing something in the second half that I've never seen anyone do.  After Virginia would score, Virginia would run back on defense.  UMBC would just touch the ball over the line and not touch it for a few seconds before bringing it up the court.  The purpose of this is because the game clock keeps going unless the ref blows a whistle, but the shot clock doesn't start until the offensive team touches the ball.  So, UMBC could run 5 or 7 extra seconds off the clock before the 30 seconds they would get for a shot would come into play.  Over the course of many possessions, that would add up.  I'm not sure it made a difference because UMBC would up blowing out Virginia, but if it was a closer game, those extra 45-60 seconds that they burned off the clock could've been pretty valuable.

Anyway, it was a historic day.  I wasn't sure I'd ever see a #16 beat a #1.  UMBC will go down in history.  Congrats to them.  On the flip side, Virginia continues their track record of underperforming in the tournament.  Two years ago, they were a #1 seed and made the Elite 8, only to lose to Syracuse as a #10 seed to go to the Final 4.  A lot of teams have been flagged with this type of reputation.  Syracuse did for a while.  So did Villanova.  One Championship will shake it, but it will have to be another year.

So, there was mass chaos in the standings today, mostly on the net points side, which I think is more important anyway.  If ever there was a time to pay attention to the net points standings, I have two perfect examples as to why.

The first is the person that is currently in first place in points.  My Dad lead everyone in the field alone at the top with 27 correct guesses.  That is some really good picking.  There were a lot of coin toss games, and he almost nailed all of them.  Unfortunately for him, he also had Arizona winning the whole thing, so he is currently 168th in net points and will have a hard time winning.  That seems like a more accurate representation of how healthy his bracket is.

The second is the bracket that has the best outlook as far as points still available.  Mike McQ. had Virginia in the Sweet 16, but had them losing to Kentucky.  Other than that, he can get all remaining available points.  The thing is, he only got 21/32 games right in the first round, so he currently sits in 124th place on actual points, but 6th in net points.  All things considered, I would much rather have Mike McQ's bracket than my Dad's at this point.  That is the advantage of looking at the net points rankings over the actual points rankings.  You win on actual points, but given that 5/6 of the total points are still outstanding, the net points are a more accurate indicator of how well you are doing.

So, obviously no one got all 16 games right today.  UMBC made sure of that.  The most points today was gathered up by Bhav D. #2.  He managed to get 14/16.  6 people got 13/16 for second place today.  The average number of games correct today was 10.13.  If you are looking at the biggest movers in the rankings, the biggest upward movement went to Daisy N. #13.  She started the day in 179th place, and after 13 wins, finished in 56th.  The biggest downward mover was Eric V. #1.  He started the day in 16th place and after only going 8-8, he finished in 162nd place.  Ouch.  Both of these people have finished in the money before, so I'm not too worried about them.  They'll be fine.

So, here are the current standings:

1. Brad R.: 27 (-73)
2. Bosun S.: 26 (-14)
3. David W. #2: 26 (-16)
4. Bhav D. #2: 26 (-22)
5. Irene H. #5: 26 (-28)
6. Mindi W.: 25 (-15)
7. Dan S. #1: 25 (-23)
7. Elizabeth N. #1: 25 (-23)
9. Missy W. #1: 25 (-25)
10. Jeff M.: 25 (-39)
11. Luis B. #1: 25 (-41)
12. Howard S. #1: 25 (-43)
13. Stefan K. #1: 25 (-45)
14. Ava S.: 25 (-53)
15. Amaris S.: 25 (-69)
16. Dan S. #2: 25 (-71)
16. David S.: 25 (-71)
16. Dennis R.: 25 (-71)
16. Irene H. #1: 25 (-71)
20. Malcolm X #2: 24 (-18)
21. Matt N.: 24 (-22)
22. Ben P.: 24 (-24)
22. Dustin B.: 24 (-24)
22. Jay H. #2: 24 (-24)
22. Kirt R. #1: 24 (-24)
26. Jared B.: 24 (-26)
26. Larry G. #2: 24 (-26)
26. Luis B. #2: 24 (-26)
26. Taima #1: 24 (-26)
30. Jim D. #2: 24 (-30)
31. Scott Her. #2: 24 (-38)
32. Barack O.: 24 (-40)
32. Kate G.: 24 (-40)
34. Joel S.: 24 (-42)
34. Todd K. #1: 24 (-42)
36. Ken Pom: 24 (-70)
37. Craig G.: 24 (-72)
37. Kiah H.: 24 (-72)
37. Scott Has.: 24 (-72)
40. Gigi I.: 24 (-74)
41. Wayne D. #3: 24 (-76)
42. Brent E. #1: 23 (-13)
42. Michelle R.: 23 (-13)
44. Irene H. #2: 23 (-15)
45. Brent E. #3: 23 (-17)
45. Chris M.: 23 (-17)
45. CSU #1: 23 (-17)
45. Malcolm X #1: 23 (-17)
45. Paul W.: 23 (-17)
45. Todd K. #2: 23 (-17)
51. Stefan K. #2: 23 (-19)
52. Jim D. #3: 23 (-21)
53. Irene H. #6: 23 (-23)
53. Jay C.: 23 (-23)
53. Jim D. #1: 23 (-23)
56. Brent E. #2: 23 (-25)
56. Daisy N. #13: 23 (-25)
56. Nikolajs B.: 23 (-25)
56. Pete J. #3: 23 (-25)
60. Alex N. #2: 23 (-27)
60. Irene H. #4: 23 (-27)
60. Kirt R. #2: 23 (-27)
60. Luis B. #3: 23 (-27)
64. Missy W. #2: 23 (-29)
65. Andrew D. #2: 23 (-39)
65. Jeff Sag. #1: 23 (-39)
67. Rob S. #1: 23 (-41)
68. Larry G. #5: 23 (-43)
68. Scott K. #1: 23 (-43)
70. Ben J. #1: 23 (-73)
70. E Rucker #2: 23 (-73)
70. Larry G. #3: 23 (-73)
73. Ben J. #3: 23 (-75)
73. Larry G. #4: 23 (-75)
73. Uproxx: 23 (-75)
76. Ben J. #2: 23 (-77)
76. Ben S. #4: 23 (-77)
76. Tomas L. #2: 23 (-77)
79. Joe D. #1: 23 (-79)
79. Julie S.: 23 (-79)
81. Tomas L. #1: 23 (-81)
81. Virginia L.: 23 (-81)
83. Mike N.: 22 (-16)
84. Brad E.: 22 (-18)
84. Daisy N. #1: 22 (-18)
84. Howard S. #2: 22 (-18)
84. Larry G. #1: 22 (-18)
88. Irene H. #3: 22 (-20)
88. Max A. #1: 22 (-20)
90. Josh C.: 22 (-22)
90. Marc R.: 22 (-22)
92. Joe D. #2: 22 (-24)
93. Chad L. #2: 22 (-26)
93. Hutch H. #2: 22 (-26)
93. Jaxon S.: 22 (-26)
93. Rob S. #2: 22 (-26)
97. Chad L. #3: 22 (-28)
98. Michelle L. #3: 22 (-30)
99. John M. #3: 22 (-36)
100. Suki I.: 22 (-42)
101. Brett G. #4: 22 (-44)
101. Eric V. #2: 22 (-44)
101. Taima #2: 22 (-44)
104. Hutch H. #1: 22 (-46)
104. Jackson I.: 22 (-46)
104. Wayne D. #1: 22 (-46)
107. Chad L. #4: 22 (-50)
108. Dan D. #2: 22 (-54)
109. Joe D. #3: 22 (-56)
110. John M. #1: 22 (-60)
111. Andrew D. #1: 22 (-72)
112. Becca T.: 22 (-74)
112. Dylan B.: 22 (-74)
114. Alyssa B.: 22 (-76)
114. David W. #1: 22 (-76)
114. Trent L.: 22 (-76)
117. Brett G. #3: 22 (-78)
117. Irene H. #7: 22 (-78)
117. Jay H. #3: 22 (-78)
120. Jay H. #1: 22 (-80)
121. Chris T. #2: 22 (-88)
122. Ray W. #2: 22 (-90)
123. Chad L. #5: 22 (-94)
124. Mike McQ.: 21 (-13)
125. Scott K. #2: 21 (-15)
126. Grant F.: 21 (-17)
127. Ally H.: 21 (-19)
127. Hal R. #1: 21 (-19)
127. Ray W. #3: 21 (-19)
130. Adam E.: 21 (-21)
130. Ben S. #1: 21 (-21)
130. Hal R. #2: 21 (-21)
130. Jeff Sag. #2: 21 (-21)
130. Klei R.: 21 (-21)
135. Michelle L. #4: 21 (-23)
135. Mike W.: 21 (-23)
137. Damien R. #1: 21 (-25)
137. Mason A. #2: 21 (-25)
139. Josh D. #2: 21 (-27)
139. Josh D. #3: 21 (-27)
141. CSU #2: 21 (-29)
141. Veronica A.: 21 (-29)
143. Elizabeth N. #2: 21 (-31)
143. Kansas C.: 21 (-31)
145. Nick I.: 21 (-37)
146. Scott Her. #1: 21 (-41)
147. Brett G. #2: 21 (-43)
147. Max A. #3: 21 (-43)
147. Miguel D.: 21 (-43)
147. Mike S. #2: 21 (-43)
151. Jim W.: 21 (-45)
151. Matt M.: 21 (-45)
151. William G.: 21 (-45)
154. John M. #2: 21 (-47)
154. Ray W. #1: 21 (-47)
156. Adam S. #1: 21 (-49)
157. Wayne D. #2: 21 (-51)
158. Mike S. #1: 21 (-75)
159. Chrissy I.: 21 (-77)
159. Daisy N. #7: 21 (-77)
159. Scott K.: 21 (-77)
162. Eric V. #1: 21 (-79)
163. Brett W.: 21 (-83)
164. Pete J. #2: 21 (-85)
165. Pete J. #5: 20 (-16)
166. Brett K. #2: 20 (-18)
167. Daisy N. #2: 20 (-20)
167. Michelle L. #5: 20 (-20)
169. Bhav D. #1: 20 (-22)
170. Daisy N. #10: 20 (-26)
170. Daisy N. #3: 20 (-26)
172. Arianna S.: 20 (-32)
172. Chad L. #1: 20 (-32)
172. Valerie D.: 20 (-32)
175. Rob I.: 20 (-34)
175. Roth W.: 20 (-34)
177. Alex N. #1: 20 (-36)
177. Ben S. #2: 20 (-36)
177. Szecho L. #2: 20 (-36)
180. Adam S. #2: 20 (-42)
181. Andrzej R.: 20 (-44)
181. Brent S. #2: 20 (-44)
181. Brett G. #1: 20 (-44)
181. Mason A. #1: 20 (-44)
185. Chris T. #1: 20 (-46)
185. Sulbum H.: 20 (-46)
187. Seth D.: 20 (-48)
188. April K.: 20 (-76)
188. Becky H.: 20 (-76)
190. Brent S. #1: 20 (-78)
190. Damien R. #3: 20 (-78)
192. Hal R. #3: 20 (-80)
193. Jace D.: 19 (-25)
193. Michelle L. #2: 19 (-25)
195. Ben J. #4: 19 (-31)
196. Daisy N. #5: 19 (-33)
197. Dane R.: 19 (-37)
198. Pete J. #4: 19 (-39)
199. Brett K. #1: 19 (-43)
200. Brett K. #3: 19 (-47)
200. Damien R. #2: 19 (-47)
202. E Rucker #1: 19 (-53)
203. Szecho L. #1: 19 (-59)
204. Michelle L. #1: 19 (-81)
205. Daniel C.: 19 (-83)
205. Josh D. #1: 19 (-83)
207. Daisy N. #11: 19 (-99)
208. Karen C.: 18 (-20)
209. Daisy N. #6: 18 (-34)
210. Alex N. #3: 18 (-40)
210. Pete J. #1: 18 (-40)
212. Allison C.: 18 (-44)
212. Daisy N. #12: 18 (-44)
214. Alex N. #4: 18 (-46)
215. Dan D. #1: 18 (-54)
216. Daisy N. #9: 17 (-43)
217. Daisy N. #8: 17 (-49)
218. Stephen N.: 17 (-83)
219. Ryan W.: 17 (-91)
220. Joe D. #4: 17 (-99)
221. Tim N.: 16 (-40)
222. Max A. #2: 16 (-44)
223. Ben S. #3: 15 (-35)
224. Daisy N. #4: 15 (-75)

...and the net points rankings:

1. Bosun S. (12)
2. David W. #2 (10)
2. Mindi W. (10)
2. Brent E. #1 (10)
2. Michelle R. (10)
6. Irene H. #2 (8)
6. Mike McQ. (8)
8. Malcolm X #2 (6)
8. Brent E. #3 (6)
8. Chris M. (6)
8. CSU #1 (6)
8. Malcolm X #1 (6)
8. Paul W. (6)
8. Todd K. #2 (6)
8. Mike N. (6)
8. Scott K. #2 (6)
17. Bhav D. #2 (4)
17. Stefan K. #2 (4)
17. Brad E. (4)
17. Daisy N. #1 (4)
17. Howard S. #2 (4)
17. Larry G. #1 (4)
17. Grant F. (4)
17. Pete J. #5 (4)
25. Dan S. #1 (2)
25. Elizabeth N. #1 (2)
25. Matt N. (2)
25. Jim D. #3 (2)
25. Irene H. #3 (2)
25. Max A. #1 (2)
25. Ally H. (2)
25. Hal R. #1 (2)
25. Ray W. #3 (2)
25. Brett K. #2 (2)
35. Missy W. #1 (0)
35. Ben P. (0)
35. Dustin B. (0)
35. Jay H. #2 (0)
35. Kirt R. #1 (0)
35. Irene H. #6 (0)
35. Jay C. (0)
35. Jim D. #1 (0)
35. Josh C. (0)
35. Marc R. (0)
35. Adam E. (0)
35. Ben S. #1 (0)
35. Hal R. #2 (0)
35. Jeff Sag. #2 (0)
35. Klei R. (0)
35. Daisy N. #2 (0)
35. Michelle L. #5 (0)
52. Irene H. #5 (-2)
52. Jared B. (-2)
52. Larry G. #2 (-2)
52. Luis B. #2 (-2)
52. Taima #1 (-2)
52. Brent E. #2 (-2)
52. Daisy N. #13 (-2)
52. Nikolajs B. (-2)
52. Pete J. #3 (-2)
52. Joe D. #2 (-2)
52. Michelle L. #4 (-2)
52. Mike W. (-2)
52. Bhav D. #1 (-2)
52. Karen C. (-2)
66. Alex N. #2 (-4)
66. Irene H. #4 (-4)
66. Kirt R. #2 (-4)
66. Luis B. #3 (-4)
66. Chad L. #2 (-4)
66. Hutch H. #2 (-4)
66. Jaxon S. (-4)
66. Rob S. #2 (-4)
66. Damien R. #1 (-4)
66. Mason A. #2 (-4)
76. Jim D. #2 (-6)
76. Missy W. #2 (-6)
76. Chad L. #3 (-6)
76. Josh D. #2 (-6)
76. Josh D. #3 (-6)
76. Daisy N. #10 (-6)
76. Daisy N. #3 (-6)
76. Jace D. (-6)
76. Michelle L. #2 (-6)
85. Michelle L. #3 (-8)
85. CSU #2 (-8)
85. Veronica A. (-8)
88. Elizabeth N. #2 (-10)
88. Kansas C. (-10)
90. Arianna S. (-12)
90. Chad L. #1 (-12)
90. Valerie D. (-12)
90. Ben J. #4 (-12)
94. Jeff M. (-14)
94. Scott Her. #2 (-14)
94. John M. #3 (-14)
94. Rob I. (-14)
94. Roth W. (-14)
94. Daisy N. #5 (-14)
100. Luis B. #1 (-16)
100. Barack O. (-16)
100. Kate G. (-16)
100. Andrew D. #2 (-16)
100. Jeff Sag. #1 (-16)
100. Nick I. (-16)
100. Alex N. #1 (-16)
100. Ben S. #2 (-16)
100. Szecho L. #2 (-16)
100. Daisy N. #6 (-16)
110. Howard S. #1 (-18)
110. Joel S. (-18)
110. Todd K. #1 (-18)
110. Rob S. #1 (-18)
110. Dane R. (-18)
115. Stefan K. #1 (-20)
115. Larry G. #5 (-20)
115. Scott K. #1 (-20)
115. Suki I. (-20)
115. Scott Her. #1 (-20)
115. Pete J. #4 (-20)
115. Ben S. #3 (-20)
122. Brett G. #4 (-22)
122. Eric V. #2 (-22)
122. Taima #2 (-22)
122. Brett G. #2 (-22)
122. Max A. #3 (-22)
122. Miguel D. (-22)
122. Mike S. #2 (-22)
122. Adam S. #2 (-22)
122. Alex N. #3 (-22)
122. Pete J. #1 (-22)
132. Hutch H. #1 (-24)
132. Jackson I. (-24)
132. Wayne D. #1 (-24)
132. Jim W. (-24)
132. Matt M. (-24)
132. William G. (-24)
132. Andrzej R. (-24)
132. Brent S. #2 (-24)
132. Brett G. #1 (-24)
132. Mason A. #1 (-24)
132. Brett K. #1 (-24)
132. Tim N. (-24)
144. John M. #2 (-26)
144. Ray W. #1 (-26)
144. Chris T. #1 (-26)
144. Sulbum H. (-26)
144. Allison C. (-26)
144. Daisy N. #12 (-26)
144. Daisy N. #9 (-26)
151. Ava S. (-28)
151. Chad L. #4 (-28)
151. Adam S. #1 (-28)
151. Seth D. (-28)
151. Brett K. #3 (-28)
151. Damien R. #2 (-28)
151. Alex N. #4 (-28)
151. Max A. #2 (-28)
159. Wayne D. #2 (-30)
160. Dan D. #2 (-32)
160. Daisy N. #8 (-32)
162. Joe D. #3 (-34)
162. E Rucker #1 (-34)
164. Dan D. #1 (-36)
165. John M. #1 (-38)
166. Szecho L. #1 (-40)
167. Amaris S. (-44)
168. Brad R. (-46)
168. Dan S. #2 (-46)
168. David S. (-46)
168. Dennis R. (-46)
168. Irene H. #1 (-46)
168. Ken Pom (-46)
174. Craig G. (-48)
174. Kiah H. (-48)
174. Scott Has. (-48)
177. Gigi I. (-50)
177. Ben J. #1 (-50)
177. E Rucker #2 (-50)
177. Larry G. #3 (-50)
177. Andrew D. #1 (-50)
182. Wayne D. #3 (-52)
182. Ben J. #3 (-52)
182. Larry G. #4 (-52)
182. Uproxx (-52)
182. Becca T. (-52)
182. Dylan B. (-52)
188. Ben J. #2 (-54)
188. Ben S. #4 (-54)
188. Tomas L. #2 (-54)
188. Alyssa B. (-54)
188. David W. #1 (-54)
188. Trent L. (-54)
188. Mike S. #1 (-54)
195. Joe D. #1 (-56)
195. Julie S. (-56)
195. Brett G. #3 (-56)
195. Irene H. #7 (-56)
195. Jay H. #3 (-56)
195. Chrissy I. (-56)
195. Daisy N. #7 (-56)
195. Scott K. (-56)
195. April K. (-56)
195. Becky H. (-56)
205. Tomas L. #1 (-58)
205. Virginia L. (-58)
205. Jay H. #1 (-58)
205. Eric V. #1 (-58)
205. Brent S. #1 (-58)
205. Damien R. #3 (-58)
211. Hal R. #3 (-60)
211. Daisy N. #4 (-60)
213. Brett W. (-62)
213. Michelle L. #1 (-62)
215. Pete J. #2 (-64)
215. Daniel C. (-64)
215. Josh D. #1 (-64)
218. Chris T. #2 (-66)
218. Stephen N. (-66)
220. Ray W. #2 (-68)
221. Chad L. #5 (-72)
222. Ryan W. (-74)
223. Daisy N. #11 (-80)
224. Joe D. #4 (-82)

Bosun is a dog.  A friend of mine enters a bracket with his dog's name.  We are all getting schooled in the pool by a dog.  That seems about right for this bracket.  Still with 26 games right in the 1st round, and the only future losses in sight are Virginia to the Elite 8 and Wichita State in the Sweet 16, he is also looking pretty good.

Another fun fact, only one person can win any points in the UMBC / Kansas State game.  Enjoy the game Max A. #3.  You are the only person to pick Kansas State to make the Sweet 16.  You can probably use that 2 points, as you have Arizona making it all the way to the Finals and are in 122nd in net points.  It's still an advantage though.

Tomorrow's games go off on a weird schedule.  Something like 1-1-2-2-2, so I'll give the breakdown of the first games and then update things as games finish.

Villanova vs Alabama
Vegas line: Villanova by 11
Picks for Villanova:  214
Picks for Alabama:  5
Other: 4

I guess with the Virginia loss, Villanova needs to be on their toes.  Virginia was the overall #1, and with them out, Villanova is now the favorite to win it all.  Alabama is certainly a better team than UMBC and 11 points is not all that much in the grand scheme of things.  IT just so happen to be the biggest point spread of the day, so I'll be wearing my Crimson Tide T-shirt all day, but that usually means they are going to lose.

Duke vs Rhode Island
Vegas line: Duke by 9.5
Duke picks: 191
Rhode Island picks: 18
Other: 14

I want this to happen.  I hate Duke.  Go Rams!  This is the second highest point spread of the day, which is a little strange that these two games lead the day off and also are stand alone games.  If they turn out to be bad, you don't have any other options to turn to.  All the rest of the games are 6 points or less, so they should be pretty exciting.

If today taught us anything, it is that anything is possible from this point on.  Take nothing for granted.  Good luck to everyone.  See you again tomorrow!!!

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