NCAA Day IV - Initial odds for 1st place.

What a day...  If you consider that only the top 4 seeds should be alive at this point of the tournament, only 1 of those teams made it through today, and that was Purdue in the first game of the day.  Only 3 games today went by the seeds: Purdue, West Virginia and Kansas State.  It was a total bloodbath.  It was so bad that we had our first entry that can not get any more points.  Irene H. #5 had an Elite 8 of: Arizona, Cincinnati, Xavier, North Carolina, Wichita State, Florida, Auburn and Michigan State.  None of those teams is crazy, and yet none of them are alive either.  That's really bad luck.  At this point the BEST bracket is missing 2 Elite 8 teams only, but there are only 2 brackets that fit that description (Pete J. #5 & CSU #1).  It was so crazy that Jeff Sag. #2 is still in 5th in net points, despite not getting a single game right today.  As a matter of fact, 8 people managed to go 0/8 today.  Ouch.  The person that had the best day today was Jared B., who got 10 points, and, as we will see later, he is mathematically eliminated from 1st place already.

So, we are guaranteed to have at least a 3 seed or worse play for the Championship.  I've seen some strange things, but today was really, really strange.  The average winning score over the last 5 years was about 140.  The max anyone can get from here on out is 153, so I'm guessing that no one is actually going to hit 140 this year.  At this point, I'd be amazed with 120.

On to the rankings.  I'll keep posting the rankings, since that's technically how you win, but I'm going to focus more on the probabilities of winning or getting certain places.  More on that to come....

Here's the current rankings:

1. Bosun S.: 44 (-64)

2. Matt N.: 44 (-124)

3. Irene H. #2: 43 (-41)

4. Dennis R.: 43 (-85)

5. Brad R.: 43 (-97)

6. Mindi W.: 43 (-101)

7. David S.: 43 (-105)

8. Larry G. #2: 42 (-42)

9. Bhav D. #2: 42 (-70)

10. Scott Has.: 42 (-86)

11. Ken Pom: 42 (-98)

11. Wayne D. #3: 42 (-98)

13. David W. #2: 42 (-126)

14. Scott Her. #2: 42 (-134)

15. Missy W. #1: 41 (-47)

16. Andrew D. #2: 41 (-59)

17. Irene H. #6: 41 (-67)

17. Jeff Sag. #1: 41 (-67)

17. Luis B. #1: 41 (-67)

20. Elizabeth N. #1: 41 (-71)

21. Ben J. #1: 41 (-95)

22. Amaris S.: 41 (-103)

22. Irene H. #1: 41 (-103)

22. Pete J. #3: 41 (-103)

22. Tomas L. #1: 41 (-103)

26. Dan S. #2: 41 (-115)

26. Joe D. #1: 41 (-115)

28. Eric V. #2: 40 (-60)

29. Wayne D. #1: 40 (-68)

30. Daisy N. #1: 40 (-72)

31. Kirt R. #1: 40 (-76)

32. Jared B.: 40 (-84)

32. Taima #1: 40 (-84)

34. Dustin B.: 40 (-88)

35. Gigi I.: 40 (-92)

36. Andrew D. #1: 40 (-116)

37. Barack O.: 40 (-132)

37. Kate G.: 40 (-132)

39. Grant F.: 39 (-45)

39. Malcolm X #1: 39 (-45)

41. Jeff M.: 39 (-57)

41. Mike McQ.: 39 (-57)

43. Max A. #3: 39 (-69)

43. Nikolajs B.: 39 (-69)

45. Daisy N. #13: 39 (-73)

45. Klei R.: 39 (-73)

45. Scott K. #1: 39 (-73)

45. Stefan K. #1: 39 (-73)

49. Ava S.: 39 (-85)

50. Tomas L. #2: 39 (-93)

51. Dan S. #1: 39 (-105)

51. Jay C.: 39 (-105)

51. Larry G. #3: 39 (-105)

54. Paul W.: 39 (-109)

54. Virginia L.: 39 (-109)

56. E Rucker #2: 39 (-113)

56. Luis B. #3: 39 (-113)

58. Mike S. #2: 39 (-117)

59. Hal R. #1: 39 (-133)

60. Pete J. #5: 38 (-34)

61. Valerie D.: 38 (-54)

62. Andrzej R.: 38 (-58)

62. Brad E.: 38 (-58)

64. Hutch H. #2: 38 (-70)

64. Taima #2: 38 (-70)

66. Ben P.: 38 (-74)

66. Joe D. #2: 38 (-74)

68. Irene H. #7: 38 (-90)

69. Howard S. #2: 38 (-94)

70. Becca T.: 38 (-98)

71. Trent L.: 38 (-106)

72. Craig G.: 38 (-110)

73. Jay H. #1: 38 (-118)

74. Luis B. #2: 38 (-130)

74. Marc R.: 38 (-130)

76. Alyssa B.: 38 (-134)

77. Todd K. #1: 38 (-138)

78. CSU #1: 37 (-35)

79. Josh D. #3: 37 (-43)

80. Kirt R. #2: 37 (-47)

81. Adam E.: 37 (-59)

81. Brent E. #3: 37 (-59)

83. Howard S. #1: 37 (-63)

83. Miguel D.: 37 (-63)

83. Rob S. #1: 37 (-63)

86. Chris M.: 37 (-71)

87. Alex N. #2: 37 (-75)

87. Brent E. #2: 37 (-75)

87. Todd K. #2: 37 (-75)

87. Veronica A.: 37 (-75)

91. Brent E. #1: 37 (-103)

91. Chrissy I.: 37 (-103)

91. Michelle L. #4: 37 (-103)

91. Michelle R.: 37 (-103)

95. Daniel C.: 37 (-107)

95. Josh D. #2: 37 (-107)

95. Mike S. #1: 37 (-107)

98. Missy W. #2: 37 (-115)

99. Stefan K. #2: 37 (-119)

99. Uproxx: 37 (-119)

101. Ally H.: 37 (-131)

101. Ben J. #2: 37 (-131)

101. Scott K. #2: 37 (-131)

104. Jaxon S.: 36 (-48)

104. Michelle L. #3: 36 (-48)

106. Larry G. #1: 36 (-52)

107. Max A. #1: 36 (-56)

108. Brent S. #2: 36 (-64)

109. Chad L. #2: 36 (-76)

109. Jim D. #2: 36 (-76)

109. Suki I.: 36 (-76)

112. Hutch H. #1: 36 (-80)

113. Daisy N. #2: 36 (-84)

113. Jay H. #2: 36 (-84)

115. Dylan B.: 36 (-100)

115. Jay H. #3: 36 (-100)

115. Kiah H.: 36 (-100)

118. Brent S. #1: 36 (-120)

119. Alex N. #1: 36 (-132)

120. Jackson I.: 36 (-136)

121. Joe D. #3: 36 (-140)

122. Irene H. #5: 36 (-156)

123. Jeff Sag. #2: 35 (-41)

124. Nick I.: 35 (-45)

125. Hal R. #2: 35 (-49)

126. Larry G. #5: 35 (-61)

127. Damien R. #2: 35 (-65)

128. Brett G. #2: 35 (-73)

129. Kansas C.: 35 (-77)

129. Matt M.: 35 (-77)

131. Scott Her. #1: 35 (-89)

132. Eric V. #1: 35 (-101)

133. Julie S.: 35 (-105)

134. Ben S. #1: 35 (-109)

135. Ben S. #4: 35 (-113)

136. Ben J. #3: 35 (-125)

136. Pete J. #2: 35 (-125)

138. Wayne D. #2: 35 (-129)

139. Jim D. #3: 35 (-133)

140. Irene H. #4: 35 (-137)

140. Larry G. #4: 35 (-137)

142. Brett W.: 35 (-145)

143. Roth W.: 34 (-46)

144. Chad L. #3: 34 (-54)

144. Michelle L. #5: 34 (-54)

146. Seth D.: 34 (-62)

147. Brett G. #1: 34 (-66)

148. Chad L. #4: 34 (-70)

149. Mason A. #1: 34 (-74)

150. Josh C.: 34 (-78)

150. Malcolm X #2: 34 (-78)

152. Damien R. #3: 34 (-94)

153. April K.: 34 (-98)

153. Brett G. #3: 34 (-98)

155. Bhav D. #1: 34 (-110)

155. David W. #1: 34 (-110)

157. Ben S. #2: 34 (-114)

157. John M. #3: 34 (-114)

157. Karen C.: 34 (-114)

157. Rob S. #2: 34 (-114)

161. Becky H.: 34 (-122)

162. Brett G. #4: 34 (-126)

162. Sulbum H.: 34 (-126)

164. Chad L. #1: 34 (-134)

165. Arianna S.: 34 (-138)

166. Chris T. #2: 34 (-142)

167. Chad L. #5: 34 (-150)

168. John M. #1: 34 (-154)

169. John M. #2: 33 (-63)

170. Damien R. #1: 33 (-75)

171. Elizabeth N. #2: 33 (-79)

171. Jim W.: 33 (-79)

171. William G.: 33 (-79)

174. Michelle L. #2: 33 (-83)

175. Mike W.: 33 (-87)

176. Ben J. #4: 33 (-111)

177. Daisy N. #7: 33 (-119)

178. Jace D.: 33 (-123)

179. Scott K.: 33 (-127)

180. Daisy N. #11: 33 (-143)

181. Rob I.: 32 (-48)

182. Daisy N. #3: 32 (-52)

183. Alex N. #4: 32 (-80)

183. Irene H. #3: 32 (-80)

183. Pete J. #1: 32 (-80)

186. Brett K. #2: 32 (-88)

187. Joel S.: 32 (-92)

188. Hal R. #3: 32 (-104)

189. Alex N. #3: 32 (-112)

189. Daisy N. #10: 32 (-112)

191. Mike N.: 32 (-120)

192. Dan D. #2: 32 (-128)

193. Ray W. #2: 32 (-144)

194. Jim D. #1: 31 (-81)

195. CSU #2: 31 (-113)

196. Josh D. #1: 31 (-125)

197. Adam S. #1: 31 (-129)

198. Mason A. #2: 31 (-133)

199. Michelle L. #1: 31 (-137)

200. Daisy N. #6: 30 (-54)

201. Adam S. #2: 30 (-82)

202. Chris T. #1: 30 (-86)

203. Allison C.: 30 (-122)

204. Szecho L. #2: 30 (-146)

205. Pete J. #4: 29 (-67)

206. Ray W. #3: 29 (-75)

207. Szecho L. #1: 29 (-87)

208. Daisy N. #5: 29 (-115)

208. Dane R.: 29 (-115)

210. E Rucker #1: 29 (-127)

211. Ray W. #1: 29 (-155)

212. Dan D. #1: 28 (-128)

213. Daisy N. #9: 27 (-97)

214. Ryan W.: 27 (-137)

215. Tim N.: 26 (-58)

216. Max A. #2: 26 (-126)

217. Daisy N. #12: 26 (-150)

218. Brett K. #1: 25 (-79)

219. Brett K. #3: 25 (-103)

219. Stephen N.: 25 (-103)

221. Joe D. #4: 25 (-119)

222. Daisy N. #8: 25 (-135)

223. Daisy N. #4: 25 (-147)

224. Ben S. #3: 23 (-97)

Now comes the bad news.  I've been able to run all the remaining scenarios, and I can reveal who is still alive for first place.  Bear in mind, if you are eliminated from 1st, you may still get 2nd, 3rd or 4th.  I'll get those standings out tomorrow.  For now, here are the people that can't get 1st place:

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Alex N. #1

Alex N. #2

Alex N. #3

Allison C.

Ally H.

Alyssa B.

Andrew D. #1

Andrzej R.

April K.

Arianna S.

Ava S.

Barack O.

Becca T.

Becky H.

Ben J. #2

Ben J. #3

Ben J. #4

Ben S. #1

Ben S. #2

Ben S. #3

Ben S. #4

Bhav D. #1

Brent E. #1

Brent E. #3

Brent S. #1

Brett G. #2

Brett G. #3

Brett G. #4

Brett K. #1

Brett K. #2

Brett W.

Chad L. #1

Chad L. #2

Chad L. #5

Chris M.

Chris T. #1

Chris T. #2

Craig G.

CSU #2

Daisy N. #10

Daisy N. #11

Daisy N. #12

Daisy N. #2

Daisy N. #3

Daisy N. #4

Daisy N. #5

Daisy N. #6

Daisy N. #7

Daisy N. #8

Daisy N. #9

Damien R. #3

Dan D. #1

Dan D. #2

Dan S. #1

Dane R.

Daniel C.

David W. #1

Dustin B.

Dylan B.

E Rucker #1

E Rucker #2

Elizabeth N. #2

Eric V. #1

Hal R. #1

Hal R. #2

Hal R. #3

Hutch H. #1

Hutch H. #2

Irene H. #3

Irene H. #4

Irene H. #5

Jace D.

Jackson I.

Jared B.

Jay C.

Jay H. #2

Jay H. #3

Jim D. #1

Jim D. #2

Jim D. #3

Jim W.

Joe D. #1

Joe D. #3

Joe D. #4

Joel S.

John M. #1

Josh C.

Josh D. #1

Kansas C.

Karen C.

Kate G.

Kiah H.

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #3

Larry G. #4

Larry G. #5

Luis B. #2

Luis B. #3

Malcolm X #2

Marc R.

Mason A. #2

Max A. #2

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #2

Michelle L. #4

Mike N.

Mike S. #1

Mike S. #2

Mike W.

Paul W.

Pete J. #1

Pete J. #2

Pete J. #4

Ray W. #1

Ray W. #2

Ray W. #3

Rob S. #1

Rob S. #2

Roth W.

Ryan W.

Scott Her. #1

Scott Her. #2

Scott K.

Scott K. #2

Seth D.

Stefan K. #2

Stephen N.

Sulbum H.

Szecho L. #1

Szecho L. #2

Taima #1

Taima #2

Tim N.

Todd K. #1

Uproxx

Virginia L.

Wayne D. #2

William G.

That leaves only 84 entries that can still win. Because of the way I calculate the probabilities, it assumes each outcome is equally likely, so some of these numbers may look a little odd.  For example, Tomas L. #1 is relatively high here because he is two of only three people to pick Texas Tech all the way to the Championship game.  As such, if that actually happens, he will probably win regardless of whatever happens in other games. In the probabilities it looks like he has more scenarios to the title, but almost all of them are contingent on Texas Tech winning 3 more games.  Regardless, as long as you've got non-zero numbers you are alive and you'd rather have large numbers to help absorb any potential losses down the road.

Here are the initial probabilities for 1st place only:

1.: Pete J. #5 (5.958%)

2.: Irene H. #2 (5.3888%)

3.: Brett K. #3 (4.9987%)

4.: Rob I. (4.8431%)

5.: Tomas L. #1 (4.7607%)

6.: Tomas L. #2 (4.6386%)

7.: Mindi W. (4.0323%)

8.: Howard S. #1 (3.8833%)

9.: Irene H. #6 (3.8772%)

10.: Todd K. #2 (3.7475%)

11.: Chrissy I. (3.6605%)

12.: Bosun S. (2.655%)

13.: Larry G. #2 (2.6153%)

14.: Nick I. (2.6016%)

15.: Brad E. (2.5634%)

16.: Jeff Sag. #2 (2.4973%)

17.: Dennis R. (2.4267%)

18.: Stefan K. #1 (2.1636%)

19.: Andrew D. #2 (1.9836%)

20.: Mike McQ. (1.9332%)

21.: Damien R. #2 (1.536%)

22.: Michelle L. #5 (1.4587%)

23.: Scott Has. (1.4526%)

24.: CSU #1 (1.2023%)

25.: Alex N. #4 (1.184%)

26.: Trent L. (1.1169%)

27.: Jaxon S. (1.0375%)

28.: Daisy N. #1 (0.9643%)

29.: Michelle L. #3 (0.8056%)

30.: Mason A. #1 (0.771%)

31.: Joe D. #2 (0.7629%)

32.: Wayne D. #3 (0.7466%)

33.: Josh D. #2 (0.7034%)

34.: Matt M. (0.6927%)

35.: Brett G. #1 (0.6785%)

36.: Valerie D. (0.6591%)

37.: Kirt R. #2 (0.65%)

38.: Michelle R. (0.6469%)

39.: Missy W. #1 (0.6256%)

40.: Eric V. #2 (0.5828%)

41.: Max A. #3 (0.5564%)

42.: Brad R. (0.5545%)

43.: Grant F. (0.5448%)

44.: Malcolm X #1 (0.5031%)

45.: Bhav D. #2 (0.4516%)

46.: Wayne D. #1 (0.4241%)

47.: Jeff M. (0.4207%)

48.: Suki I. (0.3906%)

49.: Julie S. (0.3875%)

50.: Chad L. #4 (0.3845%)

50.: David W. #2 (0.3845%)

52.: Brent S. #2 (0.3479%)

53.: John M. #2 (0.3433%)

54.: Ken Pom (0.3387%)

55.: Jeff Sag. #1 (0.3356%)

55.: Luis B. #1 (0.3356%)

57.: Jay H. #1 (0.3051%)

58.: Nikolajs B. (0.298%)

59.: Daisy N. #13 (0.2532%)

60.: Veronica A. (0.2441%)

61.: Scott K. #1 (0.1998%)

62.: Kirt R. #1 (0.1953%)

63.: Matt N. (0.1831%)

64.: David S. (0.1785%)

65.: John M. #3 (0.1708%)

66.: Miguel D. (0.1647%)

67.: Amaris S. (0.1632%)

68.: Max A. #1 (0.1617%)

69.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.1586%)

70.: Damien R. #1 (0.1464%)

70.: Josh D. #3 (0.1464%)

72.: Dan S. #2 (0.122%)

73.: Adam E. (0.0976%)

73.: Ben P. (0.0976%)

73.: Chad L. #3 (0.0976%)

76.: Irene H. #7 (0.0915%)

77.: Missy W. #2 (0.064%)

78.: Pete J. #3 (0.061%)

79.: Klei R. (0.0549%)

80.: Ben J. #1 (0.0457%)

81.: Gigi I. (0.0366%)

82.: Brent E. #2 (0.0183%)

82.: Howard S. #2 (0.0183%)

84.: Irene H. #1 (0.0122%)

I'll be back tomorrow with 2nd, 3rd and 4th place probabilities.  Tuesday I will generate the single game eliminations for the Thursday game and Wednesday I'll go to bed early because I need a night off from all this.  Good luck to everyone!!!!!