2nd, 3rd, 4th place probabilities and links to sheets

OK, so I thought my computer was going to die as I cranked out all these numbers, but I managed to get the probabilities for the rest of the top 4 places.

First, some bonus stats.  Scott Her. #2 is currently in 14th place in points, but is eliminated from all 4 payouts.  That is the highest for anyone.  Brett K. #3 is currently in 219th place in points, but can still win all 4 spots.  He is the lowest for that.  76 brackets can no longer win anything:

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Alex N. #1

Allison C.

Ally H.

Alyssa B.

Andrew D. #1

Arianna S.

Barack O.

Ben J. #3

Ben J. #4

Ben S. #1

Ben S. #2

Ben S. #3

Ben S. #4

Brent S. #1

Brett G. #2

Brett W.

Chad L. #5

Chris T. #1

Chris T. #2

CSU #2

Daisy N. #11

Daisy N. #12

Daisy N. #4

Daisy N. #5

Daisy N. #7

Daisy N. #8

Daisy N. #9

Dan D. #1

Dan D. #2

Dane R.

David W. #1

E Rucker #1

Elizabeth N. #2

Irene H. #3

Irene H. #4

Irene H. #5

Jace D.

Jackson I.

Jim D. #1

Jim D. #2

Jim D. #3

Joe D. #1

Joe D. #4

Joel S.

John M. #1

Josh D. #1

Kate G.

Larry G. #4

Luis B. #2

Luis B. #3

Marc R.

Mason A. #2

Max A. #2

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #2

Mike N.

Mike W.

Paul W.

Pete J. #4

Ray W. #1

Ray W. #2

Ryan W.

Scott Her. #1

Scott Her. #2

Scott K.

Scott K. #2

Stefan K. #2

Stephen N.

Sulbum H.

Szecho L. #1

Szecho L. #2

Todd K. #1

Wayne D. #2

William G.

Thanks to all those people for making the pot bigger for the eventual winners.  Everyone else is alive for at least one of the 4 payouts, so keep an eye on the probabilities to see where you are if you are still alive.

There are 48 people that can't win the pool, even though they still have their Champion alive, including 10 that have both semi-finalists alive.  This is usually because they chose some relatively common finalists, and they can't catch up to people above them on points that have the same teams.  On the flip side, there are 27 people that can still get first despite having their Champion out, including 4 people that can still win despite missing both semi-finalists (Matt N., David W. #2, Dan S. #2, Jay H. #1).  I wouldn't have thought that was possible, but the numbers say it is.

Let's put up a matrix of who is knocked out of what:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Adam E.
Adam S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Adam S. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alex N. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alex N. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alex N. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alex N. #4
Allison C.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ally H.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alyssa B.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Amaris S.
Andrew D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Andrew D. #2
Andrzej R.	Sweet 16
April K.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Arianna S.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ava S.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Barack O.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Becca T.	Sweet 16
Becky H.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben J. #1
Ben J. #2	Sweet 16
Ben J. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben J. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben P.
Ben S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben S. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben S. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben S. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Bhav D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Bhav D. #2
Bosun S.
Brad E.
Brad R.
Brent E. #1	Sweet 16
Brent E. #2
Brent E. #3	Sweet 16
Brent S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brent S. #2
Brett G. #1
Brett G. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brett G. #3	Sweet 16
Brett G. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brett K. #1	Sweet 16
Brett K. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brett K. #3
Brett W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chad L. #1	Sweet 16
Chad L. #2	Sweet 16
Chad L. #3
Chad L. #4
Chad L. #5	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chris M.	Sweet 16
Chris T. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chris T. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chrissy I.
Craig G.	Sweet 16
CSU #1
CSU #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #1
Daisy N. #10	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #11	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #12	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #13
Daisy N. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #3	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #5	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #6	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #7	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #8	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #9	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #1
Damien R. #2
Damien R. #3	Sweet 16
Dan D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dan D. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dan S. #1	Sweet 16
Dan S. #2
Dane R.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daniel C.	Sweet 16
David S.
David W. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
David W. #2
Dennis R.
Dustin B.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dylan B.	Sweet 16
E Rucker #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
E Rucker #2	Sweet 16
Elizabeth N. #1
Elizabeth N. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Eric V. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Eric V. #2
Gigi I.
Grant F.
Hal R. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Hal R. #2	Sweet 16
Hal R. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Howard S. #1
Howard S. #2
Hutch H. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Hutch H. #2	Sweet 16
Irene H. #1
Irene H. #2
Irene H. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #5	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #6
Irene H. #7
Jace D.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jackson I.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jared B.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jaxon S.
Jay C.	Sweet 16
Jay H. #1
Jay H. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jay H. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jeff M.
Jeff Sag. #1
Jeff Sag. #2
Jim D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim D. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim D. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim W.	Sweet 16
Joe D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Joe D. #2
Joe D. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Joe D. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Joel S.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #2
John M. #3
Josh C.	Sweet 16
Josh D. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Josh D. #2
Josh D. #3
Julie S.
Kansas C.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Karen C.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Kate G.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ken Pom
Kiah H.	Sweet 16
Kirt R. #1
Kirt R. #2
Klei R.
Larry G. #1	Sweet 16
Larry G. #2
Larry G. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Larry G. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Larry G. #5	Sweet 16
Luis B. #1
Luis B. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Luis B. #3	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Malcolm X #1
Malcolm X #2	Sweet 16
Marc R.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mason A. #1
Mason A. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Matt M.
Matt N.
Max A. #1
Max A. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Max A. #3
Michelle L. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #3
Michelle L. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #5
Michelle R.
Miguel D.
Mike McQ.
Mike N.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mike S. #1	Sweet 16
Mike S. #2	Sweet 16
Mike W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mindi W.
Missy W. #1
Missy W. #2
Nick I.
Nikolajs B.
Paul W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Pete J. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Pete J. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Pete J. #3
Pete J. #4	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Pete J. #5
Ray W. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray W. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray W. #3	Sweet 16
Rob I.
Rob S. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Rob S. #2	Sweet 16
Roth W.	Sweet 16
Ryan W.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott Has.
Scott Her. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott Her. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott K.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott K. #1
Scott K. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Seth D.	Sweet 16
Stefan K. #1
Stefan K. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Stephen N.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Suki I.
Sulbum H.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Szecho L. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Szecho L. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Taima #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Taima #2	Sweet 16
Tim N.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Todd K. #1	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Todd K. #2
Tomas L. #1
Tomas L. #2
Trent L.
Uproxx	Sweet 16
Valerie D.
Veronica A.
Virginia L.	Sweet 16
Wayne D. #1
Wayne D. #2	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Wayne D. #3
William G.	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16

This is probably more easy to use than long lists of names.  I'll keep filling this in as teams knock people out.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd place:

1.: Rob I. (5.2327%)

2.: Tomas L. #2 (5.0537%)

3.: Bosun S. (4.5959%)

4.: Chrissy I. (4.4586%)

5.: Jeff Sag. #2 (4.3375%)

6.: Tomas L. #1 (3.9428%)

7.: Nick I. (3.6371%)

8.: Pete J. #5 (3.4667%)

9.: Irene H. #2 (2.9897%)

10.: Howard S. #1 (2.982%)

11.: CSU #1 (2.2425%)

12.: Larry G. #2 (2.2064%)

13.: Michelle L. #5 (2.1514%)

14.: Irene H. #6 (2.139%)

15.: Todd K. #2 (2.0423%)

16.: Chad L. #2 (1.947%)

17.: Andrew D. #2 (1.7903%)

18.: Brad E. (1.6494%)

19.: Scott Has. (1.5001%)

20.: Hal R. #2 (1.2878%)

21.: Max A. #3 (1.2186%)

22.: Dennis R. (1.1954%)

23.: Michelle L. #3 (1.1779%)

24.: Brett G. #1 (1.1632%)

25.: David W. #2 (1.1352%)

26.: Stefan K. #1 (1.0543%)

27.: Wayne D. #3 (1.0164%)

28.: Brett K. #3 (0.9979%)

29.: Missy W. #1 (0.9958%)

30.: Kirt R. #2 (0.9847%)

31.: Jay H. #1 (0.9826%)

32.: Bhav D. #2 (0.9211%)

33.: Trent L. (0.9066%)

34.: Josh D. #2 (0.8903%)

35.: Mason A. #1 (0.8893%)

36.: Valerie D. (0.8819%)

37.: Mindi W. (0.8646%)

38.: Joe D. #2 (0.8056%)

39.: Malcolm X #1 (0.7902%)

40.: Daisy N. #3 (0.7812%)

41.: Damien R. #2 (0.771%)

42.: Luis B. #1 (0.7222%)

43.: Wayne D. #1 (0.7202%)

44.: Roth W. (0.7019%)

45.: Alex N. #4 (0.6896%)

46.: Brad R. (0.6812%)

47.: Matt M. (0.6724%)

48.: Grant F. (0.667%)

49.: Suki I. (0.6347%)

50.: Jeff M. (0.5923%)

51.: John M. #2 (0.578%)

52.: Eric V. #2 (0.5767%)

53.: Jeff Sag. #1 (0.5467%)

54.: Daniel C. (0.531%)

55.: Chad L. #4 (0.5284%)

56.: Nikolajs B. (0.5239%)

57.: Ray W. #3 (0.476%)

58.: Mike McQ. (0.4498%)

59.: Veronica A. (0.4475%)

60.: Brett G. #3 (0.3921%)

61.: Daisy N. #1 (0.354%)

62.: Jim W. (0.3417%)

63.: Max A. #1 (0.3407%)

64.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.3407%)

65.: Jaxon S. (0.3194%)

66.: Daisy N. #13 (0.3155%)

67.: Brent S. #2 (0.2899%)

67.: Julie S. (0.2899%)

69.: Damien R. #1 (0.2807%)

70.: Pete J. #3 (0.2746%)

71.: Hutch H. #2 (0.2716%)

72.: Michelle R. (0.2502%)

73.: Ben P. (0.2441%)

73.: Larry G. #1 (0.2441%)

75.: Ken Pom (0.2405%)

76.: Chad L. #1 (0.238%)

76.: Matt N. (0.238%)

78.: Klei R. (0.2335%)

79.: John M. #3 (0.2166%)

80.: Josh D. #3 (0.2075%)

81.: Irene H. #7 (0.2065%)

82.: Scott K. #1 (0.2047%)

83.: David S. (0.1963%)

84.: Brett K. #1 (0.1876%)

85.: Dan S. #2 (0.1831%)

86.: Amaris S. (0.18%)

87.: Ben J. #1 (0.1703%)

88.: Adam E. (0.1525%)

89.: Dan S. #1 (0.1464%)

90.: Craig G. (0.1403%)

91.: Daisy N. #10 (0.1281%)

92.: Daisy N. #6 (0.122%)

93.: Rob S. #2 (0.1124%)

94.: Malcolm X #2 (0.1017%)

95.: Gigi I. (0.1007%)

96.: Missy W. #2 (0.0946%)

97.: Miguel D. (0.0869%)

98.: Chad L. #3 (0.0671%)

99.: Andrzej R. (0.061%)

99.: Ben J. #2 (0.061%)

101.: Jay C. (0.059%)

102.: Irene H. #1 (0.0508%)

103.: Kirt R. #1 (0.0488%)

104.: Larry G. #5 (0.0433%)

105.: Josh C. (0.0366%)

106.: Howard S. #2 (0.032%)

107.: Brent E. #1 (0.0244%)

107.: Brent E. #2 (0.0244%)

107.: Brent E. #3 (0.0244%)

107.: Kiah H. (0.0244%)

107.: Uproxx (0.0244%)

112.: Virginia L. (0.0238%)

113.: Chris M. (0.0213%)

114.: Mike S. #2 (0.0213%)

115.: Dylan B. (0.0183%)

116.: Mike S. #1 (0.0162%)

117.: Seth D. (0.0152%)

118.: E Rucker #2 (0.0141%)

119.: Becca T. (0.0137%)

120.: Taima #2 (0.0091%)

121.: Damien R. #3 (0.0061%)

...and 3rd place probabilities:

1.: Rob I. (4.2154%)

2.: Ray W. #3 (4.0405%)

3.: Becky H. (3.9896%)

4.: Larry G. #2 (3.4902%)

5.: CSU #1 (3.0527%)

6.: Bosun S. (2.8686%)

7.: Brad E. (2.7806%)

8.: Chad L. #2 (2.6138%)

9.: Irene H. #2 (2.5987%)

10.: Dennis R. (2.5048%)

11.: Irene H. #6 (2.4453%)

12.: Michelle L. #5 (2.3651%)

13.: Chrissy I. (2.2902%)

14.: Stefan K. #1 (2.289%)

15.: Howard S. #1 (2.0985%)

16.: Andrew D. #2 (1.9073%)

17.: Nick I. (1.8295%)

18.: Pete J. #5 (1.6637%)

19.: Missy W. #1 (1.5411%)

20.: Mike McQ. (1.4393%)

21.: Trent L. (1.3861%)

22.: Alex N. #4 (1.2817%)

23.: Jeff Sag. #2 (1.2014%)

24.: Tomas L. #1 (1.18%)

25.: Scott Has. (1.1793%)

26.: Michelle R. (1.1555%)

27.: Kirt R. #2 (1.1362%)

28.: Luis B. #1 (1.0793%)

29.: Hal R. #2 (1.0742%)

30.: Bhav D. #2 (1.0503%)

31.: Chad L. #4 (1.0406%)

32.: Valerie D. (1.0055%)

33.: Mason A. #1 (0.9807%)

34.: Brett G. #1 (0.973%)

35.: Mindi W. (0.9716%)

36.: Matt M. (0.9691%)

37.: Damien R. #2 (0.9419%)

38.: Joe D. #2 (0.9419%)

39.: Tomas L. #2 (0.9358%)

40.: Max A. #3 (0.9176%)

41.: Michelle L. #3 (0.9124%)

42.: Wayne D. #3 (0.8108%)

43.: Jeff M. (0.7897%)

44.: Todd K. #2 (0.7608%)

45.: David W. #2 (0.7548%)

46.: Brett G. #3 (0.7359%)

47.: Daniel C. (0.7206%)

48.: Jay H. #1 (0.7069%)

49.: Grant F. (0.6989%)

50.: Malcolm X #1 (0.6809%)

51.: Max A. #1 (0.6769%)

52.: Larry G. #1 (0.6713%)

53.: Wayne D. #1 (0.6439%)

54.: Brent S. #2 (0.6263%)

55.: Jaxon S. (0.5869%)

56.: Veronica A. (0.5808%)

57.: Eric V. #2 (0.5447%)

58.: Brad R. (0.5348%)

59.: Roth W. (0.5198%)

60.: Julie S. (0.5157%)

61.: Jeff Sag. #1 (0.5009%)

62.: Jim W. (0.4435%)

63.: John M. #2 (0.4032%)

64.: Josh D. #2 (0.3952%)

65.: Ken Pom (0.3911%)

66.: Pete J. #3 (0.3829%)

67.: Nikolajs B. (0.3746%)

68.: Dan S. #1 (0.358%)

69.: Damien R. #1 (0.3499%)

70.: Kirt R. #1 (0.3356%)

71.: Malcolm X #2 (0.3336%)

72.: Hutch H. #2 (0.3265%)

73.: Andrzej R. (0.3184%)

74.: Dan S. #2 (0.3087%)

75.: Suki I. (0.3069%)

76.: David S. (0.3027%)

77.: Irene H. #7 (0.3013%)

78.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.296%)

79.: Ben P. (0.2929%)

80.: Ben J. #1 (0.2807%)

81.: Adam E. (0.2787%)

82.: Brent E. #3 (0.2685%)

83.: Daisy N. #10 (0.2624%)

83.: Matt N. (0.2624%)

85.: Daisy N. #1 (0.2604%)

86.: Hal R. #3 (0.2563%)

87.: Brett K. #3 (0.2441%)

88.: Daisy N. #13 (0.2441%)

89.: Gigi I. (0.2258%)

90.: Klei R. (0.2257%)

91.: Brett K. #2 (0.2182%)

92.: Scott K. #1 (0.1942%)

93.: Craig G. (0.1892%)

93.: Josh D. #3 (0.1892%)

95.: Amaris S. (0.1795%)

96.: Joe D. #3 (0.1708%)

96.: John M. #3 (0.1708%)

98.: Rob S. #2 (0.1698%)

99.: Miguel D. (0.148%)

100.: Alex N. #2 (0.122%)

101.: Uproxx (0.118%)

102.: Missy W. #2 (0.1159%)

103.: Chad L. #1 (0.1098%)

104.: Irene H. #1 (0.1078%)

105.: Daisy N. #6 (0.0976%)

106.: Jay C. (0.0814%)

107.: Chad L. #3 (0.0732%)

108.: Ben J. #2 (0.0671%)

108.: Josh C. (0.0671%)

110.: Seth D. (0.064%)

111.: Larry G. #5 (0.0638%)

112.: Dylan B. (0.0638%)

113.: Brent E. #2 (0.061%)

114.: Virginia L. (0.0557%)

115.: Chris M. (0.0539%)

116.: Taima #2 (0.0518%)

117.: Alex N. #3 (0.0488%)

117.: Hal R. #1 (0.0488%)

117.: Mike S. #2 (0.0488%)

120.: Brent E. #1 (0.0467%)

121.: Howard S. #2 (0.0366%)

122.: Daisy N. #3 (0.0343%)

123.: Mike S. #1 (0.0305%)

124.: E Rucker #2 (0.0295%)

125.: Ava S. (0.0284%)

126.: Eric V. #1 (0.0274%)

127.: Brett K. #1 (0.0244%)

127.: Jared B. (0.0244%)

127.: Kiah H. (0.0244%)

130.: Larry G. #3 (0.0203%)

131.: Taima #1 (0.0203%)

132.: Brett G. #4 (0.0183%)

133.: Damien R. #3 (0.0183%)

134.: Dustin B. (0.0122%)

135.: Becca T. (0.0099%)

136.: April K. (0.0053%)

137.: Michelle L. #4 (0.003%)

...and 4th place probabilities:

1.: CSU #1 (3.7431%)

2.: Mindi W. (3.2108%)

3.: Irene H. #2 (2.993%)

4.: Todd K. #2 (2.9527%)

5.: Alex N. #4 (2.9337%)

6.: Hal R. #2 (2.9254%)

7.: Chad L. #2 (2.5838%)

8.: Irene H. #6 (2.5806%)

9.: Stefan K. #1 (2.2586%)

10.: Rob I. (2.2583%)

11.: Scott Has. (1.8559%)

12.: Mike McQ. (1.849%)

13.: Andrew D. #2 (1.6794%)

14.: Brett G. #1 (1.5429%)

15.: Tomas L. #1 (1.5411%)

16.: Bosun S. (1.5187%)

17.: Trent L. (1.4977%)

18.: Becky H. (1.4719%)

19.: Kirt R. #2 (1.4429%)

20.: Nick I. (1.4173%)

21.: Dennis R. (1.4115%)

22.: Missy W. #1 (1.3916%)

23.: Tomas L. #2 (1.2995%)

24.: Luis B. #1 (1.2843%)

25.: Brad E. (1.2547%)

26.: Chad L. #4 (1.2318%)

27.: Bhav D. #2 (1.1988%)

28.: Jeff Sag. #2 (1.1984%)

29.: Michelle L. #5 (1.1444%)

30.: Ray W. #3 (1.1428%)

31.: Pete J. #5 (1.1357%)

32.: Max A. #3 (1.1324%)

33.: Valerie D. (1.0906%)

34.: Matt M. (1.0897%)

35.: Damien R. #2 (1.066%)

36.: Jaxon S. (1.0559%)

37.: Wayne D. #3 (1.0539%)

38.: Chrissy I. (1.043%)

39.: Brett K. #2 (1.0192%)

40.: Larry G. #2 (0.9493%)

41.: Michelle R. (0.949%)

42.: Joe D. #2 (0.9023%)

43.: Howard S. #1 (0.891%)

44.: Jeff M. (0.881%)

45.: Jay H. #1 (0.8504%)

46.: Mason A. #1 (0.8026%)

47.: Michelle L. #3 (0.769%)

48.: Malcolm X #1 (0.7535%)

49.: Veronica A. (0.7436%)

50.: Grant F. (0.7375%)

51.: Daniel C. (0.7277%)

52.: Eric V. #2 (0.7151%)

53.: Wayne D. #1 (0.7039%)

54.: David W. #2 (0.6968%)

55.: Pete J. #1 (0.6835%)

56.: Brent S. #2 (0.6502%)

57.: Jim W. (0.6459%)

58.: Andrzej R. (0.6189%)

59.: Julie S. (0.5803%)

60.: Brad R. (0.5794%)

61.: Damien R. #1 (0.5727%)

62.: Pete J. #3 (0.5477%)

63.: Kirt R. #1 (0.5279%)

64.: Max A. #1 (0.5264%)

65.: Brett G. #3 (0.502%)

66.: Nikolajs B. (0.5018%)

67.: Missy W. #2 (0.4801%)

68.: Jeff Sag. #1 (0.4555%)

69.: Malcolm X #2 (0.4384%)

70.: Larry G. #1 (0.4302%)

71.: Ben P. (0.415%)

72.: Dan S. #1 (0.414%)

73.: Dan S. #2 (0.4114%)

74.: Roth W. (0.3794%)

75.: Irene H. #7 (0.3765%)

76.: Josh D. #2 (0.3686%)

77.: Daisy N. #1 (0.3662%)

78.: Klei R. (0.3538%)

79.: David S. (0.3452%)

80.: Brett K. #3 (0.3326%)

81.: Daisy N. #6 (0.3295%)

82.: Gigi I. (0.3219%)

83.: Ben J. #1 (0.3172%)

84.: Josh D. #3 (0.3082%)

85.: Chad L. #1 (0.299%)

86.: John M. #3 (0.2843%)

87.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.279%)

88.: Brent E. #3 (0.2726%)

89.: John M. #2 (0.2627%)

90.: Hal R. #3 (0.2502%)

91.: Daisy N. #13 (0.2502%)

92.: Ken Pom (0.2492%)

93.: Daisy N. #10 (0.2431%)

94.: Rob S. #2 (0.2329%)

95.: Craig G. (0.2304%)

96.: Chad L. #3 (0.2258%)

97.: Miguel D. (0.2217%)

98.: Suki I. (0.2189%)

99.: Matt N. (0.2156%)

100.: Scott K. #1 (0.2085%)

101.: Ben J. #2 (0.2075%)

102.: Irene H. #1 (0.207%)

103.: Chris M. (0.1907%)

104.: Jay C. (0.1802%)

105.: Alex N. #2 (0.1678%)

106.: Hutch H. #2 (0.1566%)

107.: Amaris S. (0.1504%)

108.: Uproxx (0.1438%)

109.: Daisy N. #3 (0.1396%)

110.: Taima #2 (0.1347%)

111.: Seth D. (0.1261%)

112.: Adam E. (0.1078%)

113.: Hutch H. #1 (0.0976%)

113.: Jay H. #2 (0.0976%)

115.: Brett G. #4 (0.0915%)

116.: Dylan B. (0.0857%)

117.: Mike S. #1 (0.0775%)

118.: Brent E. #2 (0.0773%)

119.: Hal R. #1 (0.0732%)

119.: Jared B. (0.0732%)

121.: Becca T. (0.0724%)

122.: Mike S. #2 (0.0701%)

123.: Josh C. (0.0671%)

124.: Eric V. #1 (0.064%)

124.: Howard S. #2 (0.064%)

124.: Joe D. #3 (0.064%)

127.: E Rucker #2 (0.0621%)

128.: Taima #1 (0.0595%)

129.: Brent E. #1 (0.0559%)

130.: Larry G. #5 (0.0494%)

131.: Alex N. #3 (0.0488%)

131.: Tim N. (0.0488%)

133.: Rob S. #1 (0.0473%)

134.: Ava S. (0.0467%)

135.: Virginia L. (0.0435%)

136.: Larry G. #3 (0.0406%)

137.: Kansas C. (0.0366%)

138.: Damien R. #3 (0.0356%)

139.: Dustin B. (0.0345%)

140.: Brett K. #1 (0.0249%)

141.: Michelle L. #4 (0.0225%)

142.: Pete J. #2 (0.0122%)

143.: Daisy N. #2 (0.0106%)

144.: Jay H. #3 (0.0091%)

144.: Kiah H. (0.0091%)

146.: April K. (0.0053%)

147.: Bhav D. #1 (0.003%)

148.: Karen C. (0.0012%)

That's the list.

For those that want to see my scoresheet, follow this link:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1yKi9vJ_4nMdgJgkDhjJ1rhcnSM00vK2c

For those that want to see my sheets for 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, follow these links:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1MtQjg5LnD6hC2x6xtr3bSwyPix1T3yGT

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1x50Bp8aou-zBAjOhMNIoT_1N9XfngUQl

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1gJJmJMt8hqmwJzohWZ4XJBp5CjBcKUBj

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1gtHck3RMTEck2L0ErTujQg3tSeKv1QYT

The way to use this is to go to the first sheet in the spreadsheet.  You'll see all of the possible scenarios listed.  Scroll to the right to see a matrix of mostly zeros.  Find the column with your bracket name in it.  Add in filters and filter on the columns that have any non-zero number (there are fractions in there to denote ties).  Any scenario left after you filter is where you would win.  Take special note of those games where there is only one team listed.  That means that team must win, or you are eliminated.  I'll send more about this in tomorrow's post, but that's more or less how I do it.  It's fun to play around in.  If you want to see who you should root for in any specific game, filter on scenarios where you win it all, and then whatever team shows up more in that game, that's who you need to root for.  If the game is 50/50, that means your odds won't change regardless of who wins.  That's not a bad place to be.

One last link.  This one is the rank finish matrix.  All the other sheets are a subset of this one.  This one shows not whether you would win 1st, 2nd, etc., but what actual rank you would be 1-224.  There's a ton of interesting information in here.  For instance, my Dad is the only person currently guaranteed to finish in the top 100.  This maybe my favorite sheet, although it's pretty big, so I don't always do it.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1FG0YoH3XKSffCzRTonuq_5iNfsR9ChY5

All right, that's it for now.  Back tomorrow with single game eliminations for Thursday.