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I feel like I called this Michigan game. The only person that can verify that is my wife, but I swear it’s true. Here’s what I thought: All three Elite 8 games have looked very similar. The favorite builds a double digit in the first half. They kind of mail it in during the second half. Gonzaga is a really good team, so they never really let USC get close. Baylor is maybe not as good as Gonzaga, so they let Arkansas get a little closer before pulling away. Houston is maybe not even as good as Baylor, so they let Oregon State come all the way back before pulling away at the end. There was no way all 4 games were going to go that way. The basketball gods owed us a close game, and we got one.
Second, I said at the beginning of the pool before anyone
even picked any games that the East was going to be the wacky bracket. People picking made that apparent, as
Michigan was the least picked #1 seed of all the #1 seeds. People weren’t sure who exactly was going to
come out of this region. I hate to hard on
this, but if you picked the “play-in winner” hoping it was MSU, you’d still be
getting points from UCLA. Note to self:
always pick the play-in winner to win at least one game.
Third, conventional wisdom says that 3 #1 seeds and a #2
seed would comprise the Final 4. That
would be the chalkiest of all chalky Final 4’s.
It’s almost always 2 #1 seeds, a #2 or #3 and then someone else. That’s exactly what we have this year.
That being said, I am tired of seeing this UCLA team, and I
hope Gonzaga blows them out by 30-40 points.
I keep waiting for a team to figure out how to stop Johnny Juzang, since
he seems to be about 75% of their offense, or at least have him miss a few contested
long 2-point shots. Still, they are
still alive, so they have a shot at winning in all. Congrats, UCLA fans.
So, it should come as no surprise that no one got all 4 of
the final 4 teams. That’s about
typical. I don’t think anyone got all 4
in 2019 either. Only 12 people got as
many as 3 right. 63 got 2 right, 84 got
1 right and 22 people got shut out. It
also means that only 14 entries are still alive for any payout.
I’m going to post a little different matrix this time. I’m going to show just the people that are
alive, instead of the full list of entries.
I also am going to show a second
matrix that shows what those people chose for the remaining 3 games. Some of the odds may look a little weird,
since there are really only 8 ways the pool can play out from here. That’s because there is one scenario that can
end in a tie for 2nd/3rd and another that can end in a
tie for 4th. If it looks like
I’ll need it, I’ll reach out to the people in those games for a tiebreaker
score. Most people don’t include one
with their picks, and most years, we don’t need one. I hope we won’t need one this year either.
Here is the matrix for the remaining alive brackets:
|
Name |
1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
4th Place |
|
Matt
M. |
25.0000% |
12.5000% |
USC |
12.5000% |
|
Michelle
L. #2 |
37.5000% |
Arkansas |
Arkansas |
Arkansas |
|
Paul
Kr. |
Sweet 16 |
25.0000% |
12.5000% |
USC |
|
Scott
H. #1 |
Michigan |
Michigan |
25.0000% |
12.5000% |
|
Brandon
H. #2 |
Arkansas |
25.0000% |
12.5000% |
USC |
|
Mark
A. #1 |
25.0000% |
Michigan |
Michigan |
6.2500% |
|
Howard S. #1 |
Flo. State |
18.7500% |
6.2500% |
Michigan |
|
Tomas
L. #2 |
Sweet 16 |
O. Roberts |
12.5000% |
12.5000% |
|
Elizabeth
N. #1 |
12.5000% |
12.5000% |
Arkansas |
USC |
|
Howard S. #2 |
Alabama |
Alabama |
25.0000% |
Michigan |
|
Paul
W. |
Villanova |
O. Roberts |
Michigan |
25.0000% |
|
Klei R. #1 |
Alabama |
Michigan |
Michigan |
18.7500% |
|
Roth
W. |
Michigan |
6.2500% |
6.2500% |
USC |
|
Hutch
H. #2 |
Sweet 16 |
Or. State |
Oregon |
12.5000% |
|
Name |
Game 61 |
Game 62 |
Game 63 |
Points For |
|
Matt
M. |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Gonzaga |
81 |
|
Michelle
L. #2 |
Gonzaga |
Houston |
Houston |
84 |
|
Paul
Kr. |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Gonzaga |
80 |
|
Scott
H. #1 |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Gonzaga |
78 |
|
Brandon
H. #2 |
Gonzaga |
Houston |
Houston |
68 |
|
Mark
A. #1 |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Baylor |
75 |
|
Howard S. #1 |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Baylor |
74 |
|
Tomas
L. #2 |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Baylor |
73 |
|
Elizabeth
N. #1 |
Gonzaga |
Houston |
Gonzaga |
71 |
|
Howard S. #2 |
Iowa |
Houston |
Houston |
59 |
|
Paul
W. |
Iowa |
Houston |
Houston |
57 |
|
Klei R. #1 |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Gonzaga |
75 |
|
Roth
W. |
Michigan |
Baylor |
Baylor |
74 |
|
Hutch
H. #2 |
Gonzaga |
Baylor |
Baylor |
70 |
If Baylor wins:
|
Brandon
H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. |
|
Elizabeth
N. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. |
|
Howard
S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. |
|
Matt
M. is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention. |
|
Michelle
L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention. |
|
Paul
Kr. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. |
|
Paul
W. is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
|
Scott
H. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
|
Howard
S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. |
|
Hutch
H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
|
Klei
R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
|
Mark
A. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention. |
|
Matt
M. is eliminated from 1st place contention. |
|
Paul
Kr. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. |
|
Roth
W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. |
|
Scott
H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. |
|
Tomas
L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention. |
