March Madness - End of 2nd round.

 The first 2 rounds of the NCAA tournament are over.  This is where the tournament really gets fun.  Up until now, this pool has largely been like a lot of others.  I’ve pretty much been totaling up points and providing update standings.  All that was prelude to what comes next.  I’ll still be keeping track of the points and all that, and I might even put them in a post or two.  Otherwise, I am going to more or less ditch that scoring methodology.

For those that played in my pools before, this is my favorite part of any pool.  I calculate the probabilities of winning any of the 4 payout spots.  I’ll tell everyone what places they are still mathematically alive for and what spots you can no longer get no matter who wins what games.  The interesting thing about it is that you may not think you have any chance to win the pool, but if your probability of winning is not zero, there is a way for you to win.  It usually provides some strange numbers.  For example, you may be in the top 10 in points right now and be mathematically eliminated from 1^st place.  You may be in 175^th place, and still have a way to win.  I will figure all that out.  I will also do that for 2^nd-4^th, but it might take me a day.

Prior to the next games, I will also provide all the entries that will be mathematically eliminated for any places if one team wins or another.

I will also provide a percent probability of getting each of the places.  This is based entirely on the assumption that each game is essentially a coin flip.  That is obviously not true, but that’s my initial starting point.  For example, an Oral Robert over UCLA final is treated with the same odds of happening as a Gonzaga over Baylor final.  So, take the opening probabilities with a grain of salt.  Often times what happens with these probabilities is that the one or two teams that has an oddball finalist has a huge percent chance of winning.  For example, say you have Syracuse winning it all.  Well, no one else has that, so if it actually happens, you are probably going to win.  That means every scenario that ends with Syracuse as National Champion results in a win for you.  That gets you at least 1/16 of all the chances.  If you took Gonzaga, you have a lot more competition for winning the pool.  It’s one strategy for winning this thing.  Pick an oddball and then ride them as far as possible.  The other option is pick a favorite and hope you do well enough in early rounds to be ahead of all the other people that took that same favorite.  This will all make more sense when I have some numbers to show.

Today was the much more predictable day, although it didn’t seem to start off that way.  Iowa going down was the biggest upset of the day.  There was only one other upset by the seeds, and we needed to wait until the last game to get that one, as USC dismantled Kansas.  Here’s the total points won today:

Wins	Count
14	3
12	17
10	54
8	59
6	33
4	15

 Good job today by the 3 people that went 7/8 (Ben W., Brian K. #1, Clifton H. #1).  Amazingly, the only game that Clifton H. #1 missed today was that he had Ohio in the Sweet 16.  The other two people were never going to get all 8 as they had Texas and BYU respectively.

Remember how no one got all 4 teams right in either of the two regions that completed yesterday?  Today was a little more predictable than that.  Here was the distribution of wins for the West region :

West	Count
4	3
3	27
2	81
1	67
0	3

 …and the wins in the East

East	Count
4	13
3	75
2	68
1	23
0	2

 Ironically, it was the East region that was supposed to be the most unpredictable, since there was no consensus as to who was going to come out of there.  It looks like it has been the easiest to predict so far.

Here was the breakdown of the entire 2^nd round.  The winner of the first round has 23 points.  The most points anyone got in the 2^nd round was 20.  That is some tough sledding.

2nd round pts.	Count
20	6
18	13
16	42
14	51
12	38
10	21
8	6
6	3
4	1

 Congratulations to Amanda R, Ben W., Brian K. #1, Brian K. #4, Mason A. #2 and Michelle L. #2.  You all “won” the 2^nd round.  I’m sure it helped all of you in the standings.

Speaking of which, here they are:

1. Mason A. #2: 43 (-113) - Illinois

2. Ben W.: 42 (-50) - Gonzaga

3. Brian K. #1: 41 (-31) - Alabama

4. Jason S.: 41 (-47) - Gonzaga

5. Dianna A.: 41 (-51) - Arkansas

6. Jared B.: 41 (-59) - Gonzaga

7. Scott K.: 41 (-63) - Baylor

7. Klei R. #3 - Jay B.: 41 (-63) - Gonzaga

9. Michelle L. #2: 40 (-44) - Houston

10. Harrell R. #1: 40 (-56) - Gonzaga

11. Jaxon S.: 40 (-72) - Gonzaga

12. Amanda R.: 40 (-92) - Ohio State

13. Dylan B.: 40 (-104) - Illinois

13. Zach V.: 40 (-104) - Illinois

15. Mark A. #1: 39 (-37) - Baylor

16. Jim D. #2: 39 (-45) - Gonzaga

16. Clifton H. #2: 39 (-45) - Gonzaga

18. Irene H. #6: 39 (-53) - Michigan

19. Peter J. #1: 39 (-65) - Gonzaga

20. Peter J. #3: 39 (-69) - Michigan

20. Keal B.: 39 (-69) - Michigan

20. Brian K. #4: 39 (-69) - Florida State

23. Dennis R. #2: 39 (-73) - Michigan

24. James P.: 39 (-93) - Illinois

25. Elizabeth N. #2: 39 (-97) - Illinois

26. Chris E.: 39 (-101) - Iowa

27. Chun W. #1: 39 (-105) - Illinois

28. Irene H. #4: 39 (-137) - Texas

29. Howard S. #1: 38 (-38) - Baylor

30. Scott H. #1: 38 (-42) - Gonzaga

31. Hutch H. #2: 38 (-46) - Baylor

31. Colston W.: 38 (-46) - Michigan

31. Roth W.: 38 (-46) - Baylor

34. Justin M.: 38 (-54) - Gonzaga

35. Brent E. #2: 38 (-66) - Michigan

35. Clifton H. #1: 38 (-66) - Michigan

37. Marc R.: 38 (-70) - Gonzaga

38. Tina H.: 38 (-78) - Michigan

39. Brandon B.: 38 (-94) - Illinois

40. Ann K.: 38 (-98) - Illinois

41. Dan Dz.: 38 (-102) - Illinois

42. Matt M.: 37 (-47) - Gonzaga

43. Peter J. #4: 37 (-51) - Baylor

44. Jackson I.: 37 (-59) - Baylor

45. Jim D. #1: 37 (-67) - Gonzaga

46. Rob I.: 37 (-71) - Gonzaga

47. Paul W.: 37 (-75) - Houston

47. Tyler B.: 37 (-75) - Michigan

49. Brent E. #3: 37 (-99) - Illinois

50. Peter J. #2: 37 (-103) - Illinois

51. Dennis R. #1: 37 (-111) - Illinois

52. Chad L.: 37 (-115) - Ohio State

52. Shawn M.: 37 (-115) - Illinois

54. Hutch H. #3: 37 (-135) - Kansas

55. Karen C.: 36 (-52) - Gonzaga

55. Brent E. #4: 36 (-52) - Baylor

55. Brandon H. #2: 36 (-52) - Houston

58. Jonathan J.: 36 (-56) - Gonzaga

59. Brian K. #3: 36 (-64) - Gonzaga

59. Scott H. #2: 36 (-64) - Gonzaga

59. Klei R. - BO: 36 (-64) - Gonzaga

62. Brad R. #4: 36 (-68) - Michigan

63. Valerie D.: 36 (-76) - Gonzaga

63. Harrell R. #3: 36 (-76) - Michigan

63. Brent E. #1: 36 (-76) - Gonzaga

63. Dan C.: 36 (-76) - Gonzaga

67. Tomas L. #1: 36 (-80) - Baylor

68. Missy W.: 36 (-84) - Baylor

69. Harrell R. #2: 36 (-96) - Iowa

69. Brian K. #2: 36 (-96) - Oklahoma State

71. Peter J. #5: 36 (-100) - Oklahoma State

72. Irene H. #1: 36 (-104) - Illinois

72. Brett G. #3: 36 (-104) - Illinois

74. Klei R. - WaPo: 36 (-148) - Illinois

75. Bret K. #2: 35 (-45) - Baylor

75. Molly R.: 35 (-45) - Michigan

75. Brett G. #4: 35 (-45) - Baylor

78. Matt N.: 35 (-49) - Baylor

78. Chris T. #1: 35 (-49) - Gonzaga

78. Jay H. #2: 35 (-49) - Baylor

81. William G. #1: 35 (-53) - Baylor

81. Elizabeth N. #1: 35 (-53) - Gonzaga

83. Alex I.: 35 (-65) - Gonzaga

84. Howard S. #2: 35 (-73) - Houston

85. Michelle L. #1: 35 (-77) - Gonzaga

86. Nick V.: 35 (-81) - Gonzaga

87. Craig G.: 35 (-89) - Baylor

87. Daisy N. #4: 35 (-89) - Gonzaga

89. Chun W. #4: 35 (-93) - Alabama

90. Chris T. #2: 35 (-101) - Illinois

91. William G. #2: 35 (-109) - Illinois

91. Michael Wh.: 35 (-109) - Illinois

93. Adam E. #1: 35 (-113) - Oklahoma State

93. Daniel E.: 35 (-113) - Illinois

93. Cicely K.: 35 (-113) - Ohio State

96. Irene H. #5: 35 (-117) - Ohio State

97. Jace D.: 35 (-125) - Florida

97. Ray M. #2: 35 (-125) - Kansas

99. Ally H.: 34 (-42) - Gonzaga

100. Stefon K.: 34 (-50) - Gonzaga

100. Chun W. #2: 34 (-50) - Gonzaga

102. Eric V.: 34 (-62) - Gonzaga

103. Eric G. #1: 34 (-66) - Gonzaga

104. Kirt R. #1: 34 (-70) - Gonzaga

104. Hutch H. #1: 34 (-70) - Gonzaga

104. Klei R. - Seth D.: 34 (-70) - Gonzaga

107. Alyssa B.: 34 (-82) - Gonzaga

107. John M. #3: 34 (-82) - Florida State

107. Brett G. #1: 34 (-82) - Gonzaga

107. Brandon H. #1: 34 (-82) - Gonzaga

111. Irene H. #3: 34 (-86) - Baylor

112. Mike Wi.: 34 (-106) - Iowa

112. Addie H.: 34 (-106) - Ohio State

114. Mike S.: 34 (-122) - Illinois

115. Chun W. #3: 34 (-126) - Iowa

116. Steve D.: 34 (-146) - Illinois

117. Irene H. #2: 33 (-43) - Gonzaga

118. Andrew D. #1: 33 (-51) - Baylor

118. Brad R. #2: 33 (-51) - Gonzaga

120. Tomas L. #2: 33 (-55) - Baylor

120. Kirt R. #2: 33 (-55) - Gonzaga

120. Eric S.: 33 (-55) - Baylor

123. Nate R.: 33 (-79) - Gonzaga

123. Mike N.: 33 (-79) - Gonzaga

123. Gigi I.: 33 (-79) - Gonzaga

126. Bret K. #1: 33 (-87) - Gonzaga

127. Owen R.: 33 (-119) - UC Santa Barbara

127. Juju Suki I.: 33 (-119) - Oklahoma State

129. Paul Kr.: 32 (-48) - Gonzaga

130. John M. #1: 32 (-68) - Gonzaga

130. Josh C.: 32 (-68) - Baylor

132. Gary W.: 32 (-72) - Gonzaga

132. Daisy N. #2: 32 (-72) - Gonzaga

134. Daisy N. #1: 32 (-84) - Gonzaga

134. Chrissy I.: 32 (-84) - Gonzaga

136. Drew R.: 32 (-96) - Gonzaga

137. Jim W.: 32 (-100) - Illinois

138. John M. #4: 32 (-112) - Georgetown

138. Michelle L. #3: 32 (-112) - Illinois

140. Dustin B.: 32 (-140) - Illinois

141. Klei R. #1: 31 (-41) - Gonzaga

142. Jay H. #1: 31 (-73) - Gonzaga

143. Brett W.: 31 (-77) - Gonzaga

144. Avery S.: 31 (-85) - Gonzaga

145. Mark A. #2: 31 (-89) - Michigan

146. Andrew D. #2: 31 (-101) - Illinois

147. Eric G. #2: 31 (-109) - Illinois

148. Noah N.: 31 (-113) - Illinois

149. Mike McQ.: 31 (-117) - Texas

149. Virginia L.: 31 (-117) - Texas

151. Dave M.: 31 (-121) - Illinois

151. Brad R. #3: 31 (-121) - Ohio State

153. Jay H. #3: 31 (-129) - Kansas

154. Brad R. #1: 31 (-145) - Illinois

155. Daisy N. #3: 30 (-58) - Baylor

156. Becky H: 30 (-86) - Michigan

157. Ray M. #1: 30 (-94) - Gonzaga

158. Elliot N.: 30 (-106) - Illinois

158. Andy M.: 30 (-106) - Connecticut

160. Ryan W.: 30 (-142) - Illinois

160. Damien R. #4: 30 (-142) - Ohio State

162. Daisy N. #9: 30 (-146) - Texas

163. Mason A. #1: 29 (-47) - Gonzaga

164. Damien R. #1: 29 (-75) - Gonzaga

165. Damien R. #3: 29 (-87) - Gonzaga

166. Daniel Du.: 29 (-95) - Oregon

167. Klei R. #2: 29 (-99) - Illinois

168. Brett G. #2: 28 (-60) - Gonzaga

169. Adam E. #2: 28 (-116) - Illinois

170. Damien R. #2: 28 (-128) - Illinois

171. JoJo D.: 28 (-132) - Oklahoma State

172. Daisy N. #8: 28 (-140) - Iowa

173. Daisy N. #5: 28 (-144) - West Virginia

174. Daisy N. #10: 27 (-129) - Kansas

175. Tucker D.: 26 (-86) - Alabama

176. John M. #2: 25 (-155) - Connecticut

177. Daisy N. #7: 24 (-140) - Ohio State

178. Cindy R.: 24 (-164) - Virginia

179. Nick I.: 23 (-65) - Gonzaga

180. Alyssa N.: 23 (-105) - Gonzaga

181. Daisy N. #6: 23 (-141) - Illinois

 …and the net points standings:

1. Brian K. #1 (10)

2. Mark A. #1 (2)

3. Howard S. #1 (0)

4. Michelle L. #2 (-4)

4. Scott H. #1 (-4)

6. Jason S. (-6)

6. Jim D. #2 (-6)

6. Clifton H. #2 (-6)

9. Ben W. (-8)

9. Hutch H. #2 (-8)

9. Colston W. (-8)

9. Roth W. (-8)

9. Ally H. (-8)

14. Dianna A. (-10)

14. Matt M. (-10)

14. Bret K. #2 (-10)

14. Molly R. (-10)

14. Brett G. #4 (-10)

14. Irene H. #2 (-10)

14. Klei R. #1 (-10)

21. Irene H. #6 (-14)

21. Peter J. #4 (-14)

21. Matt N. (-14)

21. Chris T. #1 (-14)

21. Jay H. #2 (-14)

26. Harrell R. #1 (-16)

26. Justin M. (-16)

26. Karen C. (-16)

26. Brent E. #4 (-16)

26. Brandon H. #2 (-16)

26. Stefon K. (-16)

26. Chun W. #2 (-16)

26. Paul Kr. (-16)

34. Jared B. (-18)

34. William G. #1 (-18)

34. Elizabeth N. #1 (-18)

34. Andrew D. #1 (-18)

34. Brad R. #2 (-18)

34. Mason A. #1 (-18)

40. Jonathan J. (-20)

41. Scott K. (-22)

41. Klei R. #3 - Jay B. (-22)

41. Jackson I. (-22)

41. Tomas L. #2 (-22)

41. Kirt R. #2 (-22)

41. Eric S. (-22)

47. Peter J. #1 (-26)

48. Brent E. #2 (-28)

48. Clifton H. #1 (-28)

48. Brian K. #3 (-28)

48. Scott H. #2 (-28)

48. Klei R. - BO (-28)

48. Eric V. (-28)

48. Daisy N. #3 (-28)

55. Peter J. #3 (-30)

55. Keal B. (-30)

55. Brian K. #4 (-30)

55. Jim D. #1 (-30)

55. Alex I. (-30)

60. Jaxon S. (-32)

60. Marc R. (-32)

60. Brad R. #4 (-32)

60. Eric G. #1 (-32)

60. Brett G. #2 (-32)

65. Dennis R. #2 (-34)

65. Rob I. (-34)

67. Kirt R. #1 (-36)

67. Hutch H. #1 (-36)

67. Klei R. - Seth D. (-36)

67. John M. #1 (-36)

67. Josh C. (-36)

72. Paul W. (-38)

72. Tyler B. (-38)

72. Howard S. #2 (-38)

75. Tina H. (-40)

75. Valerie D. (-40)

75. Harrell R. #3 (-40)

75. Brent E. #1 (-40)

75. Dan C. (-40)

75. Gary W. (-40)

75. Daisy N. #2 (-40)

82. Michelle L. #1 (-42)

82. Jay H. #1 (-42)

82. Nick I. (-42)

85. Tomas L. #1 (-44)

86. Nick V. (-46)

86. Nate R. (-46)

86. Mike N. (-46)

86. Gigi I. (-46)

86. Brett W. (-46)

86. Damien R. #1 (-46)

92. Missy W. (-48)

92. Alyssa B. (-48)

92. John M. #3 (-48)

92. Brett G. #1 (-48)

92. Brandon H. #1 (-48)

97. Amanda R. (-52)

97. Irene H. #3 (-52)

97. Daisy N. #1 (-52)

97. Chrissy I. (-52)

101. James P. (-54)

101. Craig G. (-54)

101. Daisy N. #4 (-54)

101. Bret K. #1 (-54)

101. Avery S. (-54)

106. Brandon B. (-56)

106. Becky H (-56)

108. Elizabeth N. #2 (-58)

108. Chun W. #4 (-58)

108. Mark A. #2 (-58)

108. Damien R. #3 (-58)

112. Ann K. (-60)

112. Harrell R. #2 (-60)

112. Brian K. #2 (-60)

112. Tucker D. (-60)

116. Chris E. (-62)

116. Brent E. #3 (-62)

118. Dylan B. (-64)

118. Zach V. (-64)

118. Dan Dz. (-64)

118. Peter J. #5 (-64)

118. Drew R. (-64)

118. Ray M. #1 (-64)

124. Chun W. #1 (-66)

124. Peter J. #2 (-66)

124. Chris T. #2 (-66)

124. Daniel Du. (-66)

128. Irene H. #1 (-68)

128. Brett G. #3 (-68)

128. Jim W. (-68)

131. Mason A. #2 (-70)

131. Andrew D. #2 (-70)

131. Klei R. #2 (-70)

134. Mike Wi. (-72)

134. Addie H. (-72)

136. Dennis R. #1 (-74)

136. William G. #2 (-74)

136. Michael Wh. (-74)

139. Elliot N. (-76)

139. Andy M. (-76)

141. Chad L. (-78)

141. Shawn M. (-78)

141. Adam E. #1 (-78)

141. Daniel E. (-78)

141. Cicely K. (-78)

141. Eric G. #2 (-78)

147. John M. #4 (-80)

147. Michelle L. #3 (-80)

149. Irene H. #5 (-82)

149. Noah N. (-82)

149. Alyssa N. (-82)

152. Owen R. (-86)

152. Juju Suki I. (-86)

152. Mike McQ. (-86)

152. Virginia L. (-86)

156. Mike S. (-88)

156. Adam E. #2 (-88)

158. Jace D. (-90)

158. Ray M. #2 (-90)

158. Dave M. (-90)

158. Brad R. #3 (-90)

162. Chun W. #3 (-92)

163. Irene H. #4 (-98)

163. Hutch H. #3 (-98)

163. Jay H. #3 (-98)

166. Damien R. #2 (-100)

167. Daisy N. #10 (-102)

168. JoJo D. (-104)

169. Dustin B. (-108)

170. Klei R. - WaPo (-112)

170. Steve D. (-112)

170. Ryan W. (-112)

170. Damien R. #4 (-112)

170. Daisy N. #8 (-112)

175. Brad R. #1 (-114)

176. Daisy N. #9 (-116)

176. Daisy N. #5 (-116)

176. Daisy N. #7 (-116)

179. Daisy N. #6 (-118)

180. John M. #2 (-130)

181. Cindy R. (-140)

 I’ll be back in a little bit with initial probabilities.  I want to thank Kansas for playing so poorly that I got a head start on calculating this stuff.  Ugh….