Elite 8 Recap and Baylor v Houston

 I feel like I called this Michigan game.  The only person that can verify that is my wife, but I swear it’s true.  Here’s what I thought:  All three Elite 8 games have looked very similar.  The favorite builds a double digit in the first half.  They kind of mail it in during the second half.  Gonzaga is a really good team, so they never really let USC get close.  Baylor is maybe not as good as Gonzaga, so they let Arkansas get a little closer before pulling away.  Houston is maybe not even as good as Baylor, so they let Oregon State come all the way back before pulling away at the end.  There was no way all 4 games were going to go that way.  The basketball gods owed us a close game, and we got one.

Second, I said at the beginning of the pool before anyone even picked any games that the East was going to be the wacky bracket.  People picking made that apparent, as Michigan was the least picked #1 seed of all the #1 seeds.  People weren’t sure who exactly was going to come out of this region.  I hate to hard on this, but if you picked the “play-in winner” hoping it was MSU, you’d still be getting points from UCLA.  Note to self: always pick the play-in winner to win at least one game.

Third, conventional wisdom says that 3 #1 seeds and a #2 seed would comprise the Final 4.  That would be the chalkiest of all chalky Final 4’s.  It’s almost always 2 #1 seeds, a #2 or #3 and then someone else.  That’s exactly what we have this year.

That being said, I am tired of seeing this UCLA team, and I hope Gonzaga blows them out by 30-40 points.  I keep waiting for a team to figure out how to stop Johnny Juzang, since he seems to be about 75% of their offense, or at least have him miss a few contested long 2-point shots.  Still, they are still alive, so they have a shot at winning in all.  Congrats, UCLA fans.

So, it should come as no surprise that no one got all 4 of the final 4 teams.  That’s about typical.  I don’t think anyone got all 4 in 2019 either.  Only 12 people got as many as 3 right.  63 got 2 right, 84 got 1 right and 22 people got shut out.  It also means that only 14 entries are still alive for any payout.

I’m going to post a little different matrix this time.  I’m going to show just the people that are alive, instead of the full list of entries.  I also am going to show  a second matrix that shows what those people chose for the remaining 3 games.  Some of the odds may look a little weird, since there are really only 8 ways the pool can play out from here.  That’s because there is one scenario that can end in a tie for 2^nd/3^rd and another that can end in a tie for 4^th.  If it looks like I’ll need it, I’ll reach out to the people in those games for a tiebreaker score.  Most people don’t include one with their picks, and most years, we don’t need one.  I hope we won’t need one this year either.

Here is the matrix for the remaining alive brackets:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Matt M.	25.0000%	12.5000%	USC	12.5000%
Michelle L. #2	37.5000%	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas
Paul Kr.	Sweet 16	25.0000%	12.5000%	USC
Scott H. #1	Michigan	Michigan	25.0000%	12.5000%
Brandon H. #2	Arkansas	25.0000%	12.5000%	USC
Mark A. #1	25.0000%	Michigan	Michigan	6.2500%
Howard S. #1	Flo. State	18.7500%	6.2500%	Michigan
Tomas L. #2	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	12.5000%	12.5000%
Elizabeth N. #1	12.5000%	12.5000%	Arkansas	USC
Howard S. #2	Alabama	Alabama	25.0000%	Michigan
Paul W.	Villanova	O. Roberts	Michigan	25.0000%
Klei R. #1	Alabama	Michigan	Michigan	18.7500%
Roth W.	Michigan	6.2500%	6.2500%	USC
Hutch H. #2	Sweet 16	Or. State	Oregon	12.5000%

 …and the picks for those entries:

Name	Game 61	Game 62	Game 63	Points For
Matt M.	Gonzaga	Baylor	Gonzaga	81
Michelle L. #2	Gonzaga	Houston	Houston	84
Paul Kr.	Gonzaga	Baylor	Gonzaga	80
Scott H. #1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Gonzaga	78
Brandon H. #2	Gonzaga	Houston	Houston	68
Mark A. #1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Baylor	75
Howard S. #1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Baylor	74
Tomas L. #2	Gonzaga	Baylor	Baylor	73
Elizabeth N. #1	Gonzaga	Houston	Gonzaga	71
Howard S. #2	Iowa	Houston	Houston	59
Paul W.	Iowa	Houston	Houston	57
Klei R. #1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Gonzaga	75
Roth W.	Michigan	Baylor	Baylor	74
Hutch H. #2	Gonzaga	Baylor	Baylor	70

 Only one person picked UCLA to make it to the Final 4, and he was eliminated after the Oral Roberts game, so no one will get any points for them if they win any more games.  Remember that games 61 & 62 are worth 16 points and Game 63 is worth 32.

 Here are the eliminations for the First National Semi-Final:

If Baylor wins:

Brandon H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Elizabeth N. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Paul W. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

 If Houston wins:

Howard S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Mark A. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Roth W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Tomas L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

 Looks like Howard S. is in pretty good shape regardless of who wins this game.  That’s some decent picking.  Good luck to everyone!!!!