Elite 8 Day 1 and Gonzaga v USC

 I feel like both games tonight were carbon copies of each other.  The favorite got out to a really big early lead.  The underdog staged a really good comeback in the second half, and then the favorite slowly pulled away at the end.

For a #1 and a #2 making the Final 4 tonight, we were oddly poor at predicting these two teams.  Only 15 people got all 16 points, including 3 people who are eliminated from any of the payouts.  82 people got no points tonight, including 5 people that can still won something, including Colston W., who can still win it all.

We also cut the number of entries that are still alive for something down to 29.  What with only 32 more ways the tournament can play out, you will also see many more round numbers in the percent chances of winning.  For example, Michelle L. #2 has a 37.5% chance of winning.  That’s 3/8.  It also exactly boils down to this: If Houston wins, Michelle L. #2 is going to win regardless of the results of any other game.  No one else has that luxury.  We all pretty much need a few teams to win if we are going to win it all.

Here is the Matrix:

Name	Game 63	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Michelle L. #2	Houston	37.5000%	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas
Brandon H. #2	Houston	Arkansas	25.0000%	6.2500%	3.1250%
Roth W.	Baylor	12.5000%	15.1042%	2.6042%	1.0417%
Howard S. #2	Houston	Alabama	Alabama	12.5000%	15.6250%
Paul W.	Houston	Villanova	O. Roberts	12.5000%	12.5000%
Jackson I.	Baylor	12.5000%	6.2500%	3.1250%	1.5625%
Scott H. #1	Gonzaga	3.1250%	3.1250%	9.3750%	6.2500%
Matt M.	Gonzaga	6.2500%	6.2500%	3.1250%	4.6875%
Mark A. #1	Baylor	6.2500%	1.5625%	4.6875%	7.2917%
Elizabeth N. #1	Gonzaga	6.2500%	6.2500%	Arkansas	3.1250%
Paul Kr.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	6.2500%	6.2500%	3.1250%
Klei R. #1	Gonzaga	Alabama	3.1250%	3.1250%	7.8125%
Brent E. #2	Michigan	3.1250%	5.7292%	2.6042%	1.0417%
Colston W.	Michigan	3.1250%	5.7292%	2.6042%	1.0417%
Peter J. #4	Baylor	3.1250%	Oregon	6.2500%	1.5625%
Howard S. #1	Baylor	Flo. State	4.6875%	1.5625%	3.1250%
Bret K. #2	Baylor	Flo. State	Flo. State	3.1250%	4.1667%
Ally H.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	Alabama	3.1250%	3.1250%
Ann K.	Illinois	Arkansas	3.1250%	3.1250%	Or. State
Brent E. #4	Baylor	Syracuse	6.2500%	Creighton	Syracuse
Tomas L. #2	Baylor	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	3.1250%	3.1250%
Tyler B.	Michigan	6.2500%	Or. State	Oregon	Syracuse
William G. #1	Baylor	Sweet 16	1.5625%	1.5625%	2.6042%
Dennis R. #2	Michigan	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	2.0833%	3.1250%
Keal B.	Michigan	Alabama	Alabama	2.0833%	3.1250%
Peter J. #3	Michigan	Alabama	Alabama	2.0833%	3.1250%
Hutch H. #2	Baylor	Sweet 16	Or. State	Oregon	3.1250%
Josh C.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Creighton	3.1250%	Alabama
Irene H. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	1.5625%
Adam E. #1	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Adam E. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Addie H.	Ohio State	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Creighton
Alex I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Alyssa B.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova
Alyssa N.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Amanda R.	Ohio State	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
Andrew D. #1	Baylor	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Andrew D. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Andy M.	Connecticut	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Avery S.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Becky H	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ben W.	Gonzaga	Or. State	Or. State	Oregon	Or. State
Brad R. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brad R. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Brad R. #3	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brad R. #4	Michigan	Sweet 16	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas
Brandon B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Alabama
Brandon H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova
Brent E. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Brent E. #3	Illinois	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Or. State
Bret K. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brett G. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Brett G. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Flo. State
Brett G. #3	Illinois	Alabama	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama
Brett G. #4	Baylor	O. Roberts	Flo. State	Alabama	Oregon
Brett W.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Brian K. #1	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Brian K. #2	Oklahoma State	Flo. State	Alabama	Alabama	Flo. State
Brian K. #3	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse
Brian K. #4	Florida State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Chad L.	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Chris E.	Iowa	Sweet 16	Creighton	Flo. State	Flo. State
Chris T. #1	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Alabama	Flo. State
Chris T. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chrissy I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chun W. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse
Chun W. #2	Gonzaga	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas
Chun W. #3	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chun W. #4	Alabama	Sweet 16	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Cicely K.	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Cindy R.	Virginia	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Clifton H. #1	Michigan	Syracuse	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama
Clifton H. #2	Gonzaga	Syracuse	Or. State	Or. State	Or. State
Craig G.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #10	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #3	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #4	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #5	West Virginia	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #6	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #7	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #8	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #9	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #3	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova
Damien R. #4	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dan C.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova	Villanova
Dan Dz.	Illinois	Or. State	Alabama	Alabama	Or. State
Daniel Du.	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Flo. State	Oregon
Daniel E.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dave M.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dennis R. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova
Dianna A.	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas
Drew R.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dustin B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dylan B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Elizabeth N. #2	Illinois	Flo. State	Or. State	Or. State	Or. State
Elliot N.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Eric G. #1	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Flo. State	Alabama
Eric G. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Eric S.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Eric V.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Oregon	Oregon
Gary W.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Gigi I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Harrell R. #1	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Harrell R. #2	Iowa	Loyola-Chi	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Creighton
Harrell R. #3	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Hutch H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Hutch H. #3	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Irene H. #3	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Creighton
Irene H. #4	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #5	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse
Irene H. #6	Michigan	Syracuse	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas
Jace D.	Florida	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Flo. State
James P.	Illinois	Syracuse	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Jared B.	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Jason S.	Gonzaga	Alabama	Or. State	Or. State	Or. State
Jaxon S.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Jay H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jay H. #2	Baylor	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Oregon
Jay H. #3	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim D. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Jim D. #2	Gonzaga	Oregon	Oregon	Or. State	Or. State
Jim W.	Illinois	Alabama	Or. State	Or. State	Alabama
John M. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #2	Connecticut	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #3	Florida State	Creighton	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
John M. #4	Georgetown	Villanova	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
JoJo D.	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jonathan J.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Juju Suki I.	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Justin M.	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Syracuse	Flo. State	Flo. State
Karen C.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Or. State	Or. State
Kirt R. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse
Kirt R. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse
Klei R. - BO	Gonzaga	Or. State	Or. State	Or. State	Or. State
Klei R. - Seth D.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Klei R. - WaPo	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Klei R. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Alabama	Flo. State
Klei R. #3 - Jay B.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Syracuse	Alabama
Marc R.	Gonzaga	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
Mark A. #2	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mason A. #1	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Mason A. #2	Illinois	Or. State	Oregon	Or. State	Or. State
Matt N.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Alabama	Or. State
Michael Wh.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Michelle L. #3	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Mike McQ.	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Flo. State
Mike N.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	Or. State	Or. State	Or. State
Mike S.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mike Wi.	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Missy W.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Molly R.	Michigan	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
Nate R.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Nick I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Nick V.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Noah N.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Owen R.	UC Santa Barbara	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Peter J. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama
Peter J. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse
Peter J. #5	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray M. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray M. #2	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Rob I.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Syracuse
Ryan W.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott H. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse
Scott K.	Baylor	Flo. State	Alabama	Oregon	Or. State
Shawn M.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova	Villanova
Stefon K.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Steve D.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Tina H.	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova
Tomas L. #1	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Tucker D.	Alabama	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Valerie D.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova	Villanova
Virginia L.	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Flo. State	Creighton
William G. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Zach V.	Illinois	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Oregon

 We are up to 24 brackets that can’t win any more points.  The best of that group is Brett G. #3, who is currently sitting in 37^th place with 60 points.  Fun fact: the 2 entries that were tied for 1^st after the first round (Jared B., Klei R. #3 – Jay B.) are both mathematically eliminated from payout contention, and both are tied at 28^th in points with 61.  That kind of shows how little the first round matters to the overall totals.  Even Mason A. #2, who had the most points after the first 2 rounds is out for all 4 places, and is currently in 44^th place with 59 points.  It’s much better to be good late than good early in this pool.

Now that the Midwest bracket craziness is behind us, there are 14 people that can still get all the remaining points.  Every single one of them has Gonzaga and Michigan tomorrow, which means 6/14 are already eliminated from the pool.  That’s actually where the earlier rounds could have come in handy.  If you are going to pick a lot of chalk, you have to get a lot of games right early to edge ahead.

We are back tomorrow with the last 2 games of this round.  Essentially every game in this round was around a 7-8 point line in Vegas.  It’s a bit of a surprise to be this late in the tournament and have such big point spreads.  I think it speaks to the strength of the teams at the top, and also the upsets of the teams that were just a shade below the top teams.

If Gonzaga wins:

Ann K. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Brandon H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Bret K. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Colston W. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Elizabeth N. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Jackson I. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Josh C. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Peter J. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Roth W. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Tyler B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

 If USC wins:

Ally H. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Colston W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dennis R. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Elizabeth N. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Howard S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Irene H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Keal B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Mark A. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Matt M. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Peter J. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Peter J. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Tomas L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

William G. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

 Not as big of a bloodbath as I thought it would be.  Then again, there’s not a lot people still alive.

Good luck!!!!!