Saturday, March 27, 2021

Day 5 Recap and Gonzaga v Creighton

 Well, that was a fun day.  I hope you were able to play along with all the elimination games and understood the matrix format that I used to show probabilities of winning the different payouts.  I was sweating most of those games out, especially the Arkansas / Oral Roberts game, which I am still not sure how Abmas missed the last shot.  That would have swung the tournament in a big way had his shot gone in.

Some of you may be confused about how Oral Roberts losing could knock you out of the tournament.  The reason is that a lot of people had Ohio State winning that game.  If you happened to pick Ohio State to make the final 4, your best path forward is to have as few points picked up as possible out of that part of the bracket.  Think of it as the spoiled child strategy: If I can’t get any points, I don’t want anyone else to get points either.  Sadly, about 40+ people picked up 4 points for Arkansas.  In a lot of cases, that was enough to eliminate you from contention.

So, it was all chalk today, with the exception of the only game where not a lot of people cared if it was chalk or not (Loyola-Chicago v Oregon State).  For a lot of people that have Illinois or San Diego State or West Virginia or Oklahoma State coming out of the Midwest, you are going to want to become Beaver fans real quick because The next game is 8 points and there are more than a few people that have Houston.

It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that no one went 4/4 today, since only one person had Oregon State in the Elite 8, and something I’ve noticed over the years is this: If you pick a 12 seed to the Elite 8, you probably aren’t picking chalk everywhere else in the bracket.  Here was the distribution today:

2nd round pts.

Count

12

19

8

61

4

84

0

17

We started off the day with 121 people alive for some kind of payout, and we finished the day with 87.  That means a lot of people were knocked out.  Something you may notice: if you picked say Baylor to win it all, once they won their game today, your probabilities of winning shot up.  That’s why the top of the standings are chock full of people that picked teams from the South and Midwest to go very far.  For example, Colston W. has Arkansas in the final game.  Dianna A. has Arkansas winning it all.  Michelle L. #2 has Houston winning it all.  You have to go all the way to 7th before you get to someone that can’t get any points last 3 from either Midwest or South brackets (Ben W. has Oklahoma State in the Finals).  That’s great for those entries, but the people that have Gonzaga or Michigan or Alabama will see more fluctuation in their probabilities tomorrow as their games get played.  As always, the moral of the story is that you can survive some short term losses, but you can’t lose games more than one round out.  Those are a killer, especially now.

So, here’s the matrix as of now:

Name

Game 63

1st Place

2nd Place

3rd Place

4th Place

Colston W.

Michigan

7.4544%

8.3984%

5.2205%

5.4769%

Dianna A.

Arkansas

14.2334%

4.5166%

2.8727%

3.6906%

Michelle L. #2

Houston

14.7461%

3.4017%

2.2786%

2.6204%

Mark A. #1

Baylor

4.3457%

4.6794%

5.0863%

5.4281%

Bret K. #2

Baylor

4.8340%

4.0527%

7.0394%

2.0508%

Brandon H. #2

Houston

0.8789%

8.7240%

5.1025%

0.9033%

Ben W.

Gonzaga

3.2389%

4.9154%

2.7995%

3.6702%

Howard S. #2

Houston

1.5625%

3.0029%

5.9245%

4.0690%

Chun W. #2

Gonzaga

1.5137%

3.0762%

4.8828%

4.1626%

Paul W.

Houston

Villanova

O. Roberts

3.2227%

9.6680%

Scott K.

Baylor

1.7578%

2.1484%

4.4515%

3.9591%

Roth W.

Baylor

4.4271%

2.5879%

2.6245%

2.5472%

Irene H. #6

Michigan

Syracuse

2.6855%

5.2246%

4.1016%

Howard S. #1

Baylor

0.6348%

3.7354%

1.8311%

3.4912%

Amanda R.

Ohio State

1.6602%

4.3538%

1.7822%

1.8066%

Brian K. #4

Florida State

6.1523%

1.7334%

1.2207%

0.2930%

Brian K. #1

Alabama

6.1768%

0.9277%

0.7568%

0.6470%

Jackson I.

Baylor

3.7109%

2.2949%

1.2858%

1.1068%

Ann K.

Illinois

3.6133%

3.0762%

1.2370%

0.3906%

Mason A. #2

Illinois

2.4414%

1.0498%

1.5544%

2.7262%

John M. #3

Florida State

0.4395%

4.5410%

1.4160%

0.6022%

Daniel Du.

Oregon

5.3711%

0.7813%

0.0732%

0.2197%

Chun W. #4

Alabama

Sweet 16

2.5635%

2.0020%

1.0986%

Elizabeth N. #1

Gonzaga

1.1719%

2.4170%

0.8219%

0.9847%

Jared B.

Gonzaga

0.5859%

1.0173%

1.8066%

1.9694%

Brad R. #4

Michigan

Sweet 16

1.2207%

2.2949%

1.6113%

Jay H. #2

Baylor

1.4648%

1.5869%

0.7813%

0.9888%

Matt M.

Gonzaga

0.7324%

1.2370%

0.9928%

1.6520%

Tucker D.

Alabama

Syracuse

0.7813%

2.7832%

0.9033%

Scott H. #1

Gonzaga

0.3337%

0.8382%

1.1963%

1.5910%

Keal B.

Michigan

0.2441%

0.6348%

1.0579%

1.7700%

Peter J. #3

Michigan

0.2441%

0.6348%

1.0579%

1.7700%

Andrew D. #1

Baylor

0.4395%

1.3916%

1.0742%

0.6226%

Elizabeth N. #2

Illinois

0.7324%

0.6917%

0.9725%

0.9237%

Harrell R. #1

Gonzaga

0.0977%

0.5615%

1.1882%

1.3102%

Jim D. #2

Gonzaga

0.3174%

0.4639%

1.0620%

1.2655%

Brian K. #2

Oklahoma State

0.0977%

1.4648%

0.8789%

0.4883%

Tyler B.

Michigan

1.5625%

1.1719%

0.1953%

Syracuse

Brett G. #4

Baylor

O. Roberts

0.2930%

0.9969%

1.3346%

Molly R.

Michigan

0.7813%

0.6348%

0.5778%

0.6063%

Eric G. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

0.4395%

0.7324%

1.4160%

Brent E. #2

Michigan

0.2279%

0.5859%

0.8586%

0.8545%

Hutch H. #2

Baylor

Sweet 16

0.3906%

0.4150%

1.5218%

Klei R. #1

Gonzaga

0.1953%

0.5371%

0.7243%

0.7894%

Peter J. #4

Baylor

0.0977%

0.2930%

1.0254%

0.6348%

Brent E. #4

Baylor

Syracuse

1.1719%

0.3906%

Syracuse

Jason S.

Gonzaga

0.2441%

0.2441%

0.4639%

0.5859%

Brett G. #3

Illinois

0.4395%

Syracuse

0.1953%

0.8789%

Paul Kr.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

0.2441%

0.6592%

0.3906%

Ally H.

Gonzaga

O. Roberts

0.0488%

0.4069%

0.7487%

Josh C.

Baylor

Sweet 16

0.3906%

0.6836%

0.0977%

Mason A. #1

Gonzaga

0.1465%

0.2116%

0.2848%

0.3906%

Klei R. - BO

Gonzaga

0.1465%

0.2930%

0.0977%

0.4395%

Dennis R. #2

Michigan

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

0.2279%

0.7202%

Chris T. #1

Gonzaga

0.0732%

0.1709%

0.3784%

0.2889%

William G. #1

Baylor

Sweet 16

0.0488%

0.2848%

0.5656%

Virginia L.

Texas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

0.4395%

0.3906%

Chris E.

Iowa

Sweet 16

0.0407%

0.3092%

0.4476%

Eric V.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

0.1709%

0.4924%

Justin M.

Gonzaga

0.1953%

Syracuse

0.1221%

0.2767%

Eric S.

Baylor

Sweet 16

0.0977%

0.1953%

0.2686%

James P.

Illinois

Syracuse

0.0570%

0.1790%

0.2930%

Matt N.

Baylor

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

0.1465%

0.3215%

Tomas L. #2

Baylor

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

0.1465%

0.2197%

Dan Dz.

Illinois

0.0977%

0.0488%

0.0163%

0.1872%

Clifton H. #1

Michigan

Syracuse

Syracuse

0.0773%

0.2604%

Eric G. #1

Gonzaga

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

0.1465%

0.1790%

Jim W.

Illinois

0.0977%

0.0732%

0.0244%

0.0977%

Marc R.

Gonzaga

0.0407%

0.0814%

0.0732%

0.0610%

Stefon K.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

0.0977%

0.0407%

0.0895%

Jace D.

Florida

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Syracuse

0.1953%

Mike N.

Gonzaga

O. Roberts

0.0732%

0.0977%

0.0244%

Irene H. #2

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

0.1709%

Jaxon S.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

0.0244%

0.0488%

0.0977%

Karen C.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Syracuse

0.0977%

0.0732%

Peter J. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Syracuse

0.0651%

0.1058%

Clifton H. #2

Gonzaga

Syracuse

0.0488%

0.0488%

0.0651%

Irene H. #3

Baylor

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

0.1465%

Klei R. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

0.0977%

0.0488%

Zach V.

Illinois

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Syracuse

0.1465%

Brent E. #3

Illinois

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Syracuse

0.0977%

Klei R. #3 - Jay B.

Gonzaga

O. Roberts

Syracuse

Syracuse

0.0977%

Mike McQ.

Texas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

0.0977%

Brett G. #2

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Syracuse

0.0732%

Addie H.

Ohio State

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

0.0488%

Harrell R. #2

Iowa

Loyola-Chi

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

0.0488%

Brandon B.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

0.0326%

Adam E. #1

Oklahoma State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Adam E. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Alex I.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Alyssa B.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Villanova

Villanova

Alyssa N.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Andrew D. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Andy M.

Connecticut

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Avery S.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Becky H

Michigan

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Brad R. #1

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Brad R. #2

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Syracuse

Syracuse

Brad R. #3

Ohio State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Brandon H. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Villanova

Villanova

Brent E. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Bret K. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Brett G. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Brett W.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Brian K. #3

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Syracuse

Chad L.

Ohio State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Chris T. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Chrissy I.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Chun W. #1

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Chun W. #3

Iowa

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Cicely K.

Ohio State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Cindy R.

Virginia

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Craig G.

Baylor

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #10

Kansas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #2

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #3

Baylor

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #4

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #5

West Virginia

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #6

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #7

Ohio State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #8

Iowa

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Daisy N. #9

Texas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Damien R. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Damien R. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Damien R. #3

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Villanova

Damien R. #4

Ohio State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Dan C.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Villanova

Villanova

Villanova

Daniel E.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Dave M.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Dennis R. #1

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Villanova

Villanova

Drew R.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Dustin B.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Dylan B.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Syracuse

Syracuse

Elliot N.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Syracuse

Syracuse

Gary W.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Gigi I.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Harrell R. #3

Michigan

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Hutch H. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Hutch H. #3

Kansas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Irene H. #1

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Irene H. #4

Texas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Irene H. #5

Ohio State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Syracuse

Jay H. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Jay H. #3

Kansas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Jim D. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

John M. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

John M. #2

Connecticut

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

John M. #4

Georgetown

Villanova

Syracuse

Syracuse

Syracuse

JoJo D.

Oklahoma State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Jonathan J.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Juju Suki I.

Oklahoma State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Kirt R. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Kirt R. #2

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Syracuse

Klei R. - Seth D.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Klei R. - WaPo

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Mark A. #2

Michigan

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Michael Wh.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Michelle L. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Michelle L. #3

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Mike S.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Mike Wi.

Iowa

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Missy W.

Baylor

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Syracuse

Syracuse

Nate R.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Nick I.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Nick V.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Noah N.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Owen R.

UC Santa Barbara

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Peter J. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

Syracuse

Peter J. #5

Oklahoma State

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Ray M. #1

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Ray M. #2

Kansas

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Rob I.

Gonzaga

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Syracuse

Syracuse

Ryan W.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Scott H. #2

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Syracuse

Syracuse

Shawn M.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Villanova

Villanova

Villanova

Steve D.

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Tina H.

Michigan

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Villanova

Tomas L. #1

Baylor

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

O. Roberts

O. Roberts

Valerie D.

Gonzaga

Sweet 16

Villanova

Villanova

Villanova

William G. #2

Illinois

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

Sweet 16

 Games start up again tomorrow, and we start off with a really big one.  Gonzaga v Creighton.  Here are the eliminations:

If Gonzaga wins:

Addie H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Chris E. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Harrell R. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Irene H. #3 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

John M. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Josh C. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Virginia L. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

 If Creighton wins:

Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Brandon B. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brett G. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brett G. #4 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Brian K. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Chris T. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Chun W. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Clifton H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Clifton H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Dan Dz. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Daniel Du. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dennis R. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Elizabeth N. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Eric G. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Eric S. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Eric V. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Harrell R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Howard S. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Irene H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Jim W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Josh C. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Justin M. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Karen C. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Keal B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Klei R. - BO is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Klei R. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Klei R. #3 - Jay B. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd  & 4th place contention.

Mason A. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike McQ. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Mike N. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Peter J. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Peter J. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Peter J. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Stefon K. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Tomas L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

William G. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Zach V. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

 So, if Gonzaga wins, a few people will get knocked out of a few spots.  If Creighton wins, it’s a bloodbath.  Ironically, some of the people that would get knocked out if Gonzaga wins actually picked Gonzaga to win.  It seems counterintuitive, but I swear it’s true.

Good luck to everyone!!!!

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