March Madness - Initial Probabilities

 This is the most fun part of the tournament for me.  I have completed the calculations for 1^st – 4^th place.  I think the field was a little tighter this year because a lot of people went with Gonzaga on one side of the bracket and either Illinois or Baylor on the other side.  If you did that, you have been in competition with a lot of people with similar brackets.  Compounding that, there have been a lot of upsets by teams that are going to help very few people or no one (like Oral Roberts).

Remember that the probabilities of winning are based on the assumption that every game is a coin flip, Oral Robert / UCLA is just as likely as Gonzaga / Baylor.  That means that if you picked something strange and the possibility of that strange thing is still alive, your odds go up.  For example, the person that currently has the highest probability of winning has Alabama over Villanova in the final.  If that actually happens, it almost doesn’t matter what else happens in the rest of the games, since he will amass so many points for this scenario that he will win the pool.  On the flip side, if you took Gonzaga over Baylor, a lot will depend on what happens in the other games because you need to get points to get ahead of other people that have the same final game.

Before we get to those, there are 121/181 entries that can still win something.  Not everyone is alive for all 4 payouts.  Some people are only alive for 4^th place only – but they still have a chance at something.  That’s something to root for.  Here are the entries that can’t win anything.  Better luck next year.  Almost none of these people picked crazy things.  A combination of unlucky upset picks and some actual upsets put them out.

Adam E. #1

Adam E. #2

Alyssa N.

Andrew D. #2

Andy M.

Avery S.

Becky H

Brad R. #1

Brad R. #3

Bret K. #1

Chris T. #2

Chrissy I.

Chun W. #3

Cicely K.

Cindy R.

Craig G.

Daisy N. #1

Daisy N. #10

Daisy N. #2

Daisy N. #3

Daisy N. #4

Daisy N. #5

Daisy N. #6

Daisy N. #7

Daisy N. #8

Daisy N. #9

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Damien R. #4

Daniel E.

Dave M.

Drew R.

Dustin B.

Gary W.

Gigi I.

Harrell R. #3

Hutch H. #3

Irene H. #4

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #3

John M. #1

John M. #2

JoJo D.

Juju Suki I.

Klei R. - Seth D.

Klei R. - WaPo

Mark A. #2

Michael Wh.

Mike S.

Mike Wi.

Nate R.

Nick I.

Nick V.

Noah N.

Peter J. #5

Ray M. #1

Ray M. #2

Ryan W.

Steve D.

William G. #2

 A few notes about this list.  Proud to say that Seth Davis (the CBS analyst) is already out, as is the Washington Post’s “perfect bracket”.  Also, in much sadder news, Daisy in totally out of the pool.  I was commending her earlier on her strategy.  Not because it’s self-serving for me to have more entries, but because I thought it was smart to do because you will have someone to root for deeper into the tournament because you were bound to have at least one bracket do well.  Sadly, her picks either didn’t pan out or she’s too far behind in all of her brackets.  That is extraordinary bad luck.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:  To win the pool, you need to pick some upsets and then have those upsets actually win.   Daisy’s strategy was more or less that.  Nothing too strange, but a few upsets in each bracket, and almost none of them came through.  That’s terribly disappointing.  I hope she can at least enjoy the rest of the tournament.

OK.  Now on to the probabilities for 1^st place.  These probabilities are just for getting first place.  If you are in 2^nd place on this list, it just means that you have the second best chance to win, not that you have the best chance at 2^nd.  I’ll send out the probabilities below.  There are 65 entries still alive for 1^st.  There are 14 people still alive for 1^st who no longer have their champion still alive.  There is one person (Mason A. #2) who has lost both of his finalists, but is still alive.  On the flip side, there are 18 entries that have both finalists alive, but can’t get 1^st place.  All but one of those entries has Gonzaga and Baylor in the finals.  That’s the risk of picking something like that.  You need to do well in the opening rounds to win that way.

1.: Brian K. #1 (16.4606%)

2.: Dianna A. (7.5851%)

3.: Clifton H. #2 (7.5195%)

4.: Molly R. (7.2388%)

5.: Brian K. #4 (6.9666%)

6.: Daniel Du. (5.7617%)

7.: Ann K. (5.4361%)

8.: Michelle L. #2 (5.0694%)

9.: Amanda R. (2.6692%)

10.: Jackson I. (2.5238%)

11.: Irene H. #6 (2.2883%)

12.: Owen R. (2.0802%)

13.: Ben W. (2.068%)

14.: Mark A. #1 (2.0202%)

15.: Bret K. #2 (1.9017%)

16.: Colston W. (1.6413%)

17.: Paul W. (1.4465%)

18.: Clifton H. #1 (1.2537%)

19.: Roth W. (1.2039%)

20.: John M. #4 (1.1108%)

21.: John M. #3 (1.1016%)

22.: Howard S. #2 (1.0986%)

23.: Harrell R. #1 (0.9801%)

24.: Chun W. #2 (0.9195%)

25.: Scott K. (0.8544%)

26.: Jay H. #2 (0.7751%)

27.: Brent E. #2 (0.7278%)

28.: Howard S. #1 (0.7186%)

29.: James P. (0.6515%)

30.: Jared B. (0.6134%)

31.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.5981%)

32.: Mason A. #2 (0.5961%)

33.: Jason S. (0.5432%)

34.: Brandon H. #2 (0.476%)

35.: Keal B. (0.4%)

35.: Peter J. #3 (0.4%)

37.: Brent E. #4 (0.3784%)

38.: Harrell R. #2 (0.3601%)

39.: Scott H. #1 (0.3234%)

40.: Brett G. #3 (0.299%)

41.: Tyler B. (0.2929%)

42.: Jim D. #2 (0.2548%)

43.: Andrew D. #1 (0.2532%)

44.: Marc R. (0.2049%)

45.: Justin M. (0.1937%)

46.: Mike N. (0.1932%)

47.: Brian K. #2 (0.1892%)

48.: Elizabeth N. #2 (0.1861%)

49.: Matt M. (0.1495%)

50.: Klei R. - BO (0.1464%)

51.: Dennis R. #2 (0.1254%)

52.: Tucker D. (0.0976%)

53.: Peter J. #4 (0.0915%)

54.: Dan Dz. (0.0885%)

55.: Klei R. #3 - Jay B. (0.0635%)

56.: Addie H. (0.0488%)

56.: Chris T. #1 (0.0488%)

56.: Klei R. #1 (0.0488%)

59.: Brett G. #4 (0.0473%)

60.: Rob I. (0.0422%)

61.: Ally H. (0.0406%)

62.: Mason A. #1 (0.0366%)

62.: Zach V. (0.0366%)

64.: Eric G. #1 (0.032%)

65.: Jim W. (0.0244%)

 Here are the probabilities for 2^nd place:

1.: Amanda R. (6.0704%)

2.: John M. #3 (5.3283%)

3.: Irene H. #6 (4.9068%)

4.: Brian K. #1 (4.2991%)

5.: Chun W. #4 (4.0222%)

6.: Ann K. (3.7892%)

7.: Clifton H. #2 (3.484%)

8.: Dianna A. (3.4408%)

9.: Jackson I. (3.3447%)

10.: Ben W. (3.2793%)

11.: Molly R. (3.2151%)

12.: Brandon H. #2 (3.1962%)

13.: Colston W. (3.1555%)

14.: Bret K. #2 (2.6407%)

15.: John M. #4 (2.6357%)

16.: Michelle L. #2 (2.452%)

17.: Brian K. #4 (2.388%)

18.: Mark A. #1 (2.3671%)

19.: Harrell R. #1 (1.947%)

20.: Chun W. #2 (1.7837%)

21.: Paul W. (1.6769%)

22.: Clifton H. #1 (1.6703%)

23.: Howard S. #1 (1.5513%)

24.: Roth W. (1.5101%)

25.: Jared B. (1.3399%)

26.: James P. (1.3107%)

27.: Mason A. #2 (1.2329%)

28.: Tucker D. (1.2207%)

29.: Jason S. (1.1301%)

30.: Brian K. #2 (1.1169%)

31.: Brent E. #2 (1.0971%)

32.: Owen R. (1.0821%)

33.: Keal B. (1.0397%)

33.: Peter J. #3 (1.0397%)

35.: Harrell R. #2 (0.9841%)

36.: Scott K. (0.9745%)

37.: Jay H. #2 (0.9536%)

38.: Howard S. #2 (0.9429%)

39.: Andrew D. #1 (0.8468%)

40.: Brent E. #4 (0.7659%)

41.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.7171%)

42.: Mike N. (0.5818%)

43.: Scott H. #1 (0.5811%)

44.: Daniel Du. (0.5678%)

45.: Elizabeth N. #2 (0.4384%)

46.: Jim D. #2 (0.415%)

47.: Marc R. (0.3944%)

48.: Tyler B. (0.3784%)

49.: Matt M. (0.3702%)

50.: Brett G. #4 (0.3367%)

51.: Klei R. #3 - Jay B. (0.3316%)

52.: Hutch H. #2 (0.3173%)

53.: Dennis R. #2 (0.2826%)

54.: Brad R. #4 (0.2655%)

55.: Eric G. #1 (0.1887%)

56.: Klei R. - BO (0.1861%)

57.: Ally H. (0.1719%)

58.: Peter J. #4 (0.1556%)

59.: Dan Dz. (0.1375%)

60.: Eric G. #2 (0.1373%)

61.: Eric S. (0.1342%)

61.: Zach V. (0.1342%)

63.: Rob I. (0.1251%)

64.: Addie H. (0.12%)

65.: Klei R. #1 (0.1159%)

66.: Josh C. (0.0976%)

67.: Brett G. #3 (0.0915%)

68.: Peter J. #1 (0.0864%)

69.: Chris T. #1 (0.0854%)

70.: Mason A. #1 (0.0813%)

71.: Stefon K. (0.0773%)

72.: Chris E. (0.0686%)

73.: Justin M. (0.063%)

74.: Jim W. (0.061%)

75.: Brent E. #3 (0.0579%)

75.: William G. #1 (0.0579%)

77.: Karen C. (0.0549%)

78.: Jace D. (0.0473%)

79.: Paul Kr. (0.035%)

80.: Shawn M. (0.0335%)

81.: Dylan B. (0.033%)

82.: Jaxon S. (0.032%)

83.: Brad R. #2 (0.0244%)

83.: Missy W. (0.0244%)

83.: Tomas L. #2 (0.0244%)

86.: Dan C. (0.0167%)

86.: Valerie D. (0.0167%)

88.: Elliot N. (0.0091%)

 …and the probabilities for 3^rd place:

1.: Bret K. #2 (4.8553%)

2.: Brian K. #1 (4.3701%)

3.: Ben W. (4.018%)

4.: Tucker D. (3.836%)

5.: Irene H. #6 (3.7859%)

6.: Colston W. (3.6387%)

7.: Jackson I. (3.6219%)

8.: Amanda R. (3.4022%)

9.: Mark A. #1 (2.9991%)

10.: Molly R. (2.8373%)

11.: Brandon H. #2 (2.6794%)

12.: Harrell R. #1 (2.5243%)

13.: Clifton H. #2 (2.3558%)

14.: Dianna A. (2.2822%)

15.: James P. (2.1453%)

16.: Paul W. (2.0781%)

17.: Michelle L. #2 (2.0528%)

18.: Chun W. #2 (2.0177%)

19.: Scott K. (2.0111%)

20.: Howard S. #2 (1.9521%)

21.: Ann K. (1.7862%)

22.: Jared B. (1.7804%)

23.: Clifton H. #1 (1.7456%)

24.: Mason A. #2 (1.55%)

25.: John M. #4 (1.5421%)

26.: Owen R. (1.5195%)

27.: Keal B. (1.5092%)

27.: Peter J. #3 (1.5092%)

29.: Brian K. #2 (1.3437%)

30.: Chun W. #4 (1.3305%)

31.: Roth W. (1.1642%)

32.: Jay H. #2 (1.1062%)

33.: Brad R. #4 (1.0955%)

34.: Howard S. #1 (1.0762%)

35.: Harrell R. #2 (1.0442%)

36.: Jason S. (1.0274%)

37.: Brent E. #2 (1.0172%)

38.: Brian K. #4 (1.0119%)

39.: John M. #3 (0.9043%)

40.: Andrew D. #1 (0.7324%)

41.: Jim D. #2 (0.6992%)

42.: Scott H. #1 (0.6578%)

43.: Elizabeth N. #2 (0.6378%)

44.: Brett G. #3 (0.6103%)

45.: Mike N. (0.5929%)

46.: Klei R. #3 - Jay B. (0.5787%)

47.: Brett G. #4 (0.5775%)

48.: Daniel Du. (0.5236%)

49.: Dennis R. #2 (0.5101%)

50.: Josh C. (0.476%)

51.: Tyler B. (0.4659%)

52.: Jaxon S. (0.4496%)

53.: Matt M. (0.4455%)

54.: Peter J. #4 (0.444%)

55.: Hutch H. #2 (0.4107%)

56.: Brent E. #4 (0.3936%)

57.: Eric G. #2 (0.3822%)

58.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.3295%)

59.: Brent E. #3 (0.3255%)

60.: Eric S. (0.298%)

61.: Ally H. (0.2931%)

62.: Eric G. #1 (0.2871%)

63.: Klei R. - BO (0.2827%)

64.: Jace D. (0.2766%)

65.: Justin M. (0.24%)

66.: Rob I. (0.2379%)

67.: Zach V. (0.2298%)

68.: Chris E. (0.2293%)

69.: Marc R. (0.198%)

70.: Shawn M. (0.1953%)

71.: Dylan B. (0.1688%)

72.: Missy W. (0.1678%)

73.: Peter J. #1 (0.164%)

74.: Chris T. #1 (0.1615%)

75.: William G. #1 (0.1546%)

76.: Klei R. #1 (0.1271%)

77.: Irene H. #2 (0.1251%)

78.: Paul Kr. (0.1235%)

79.: Virginia L. (0.1159%)

80.: Dan Dz. (0.1149%)

81.: Karen C. (0.1078%)

82.: Addie H. (0.0986%)

83.: Mason A. #1 (0.0925%)

84.: Matt N. (0.0732%)

85.: Jim W. (0.061%)

86.: Eric V. (0.0518%)

87.: Irene H. #5 (0.0503%)

88.: Tomas L. #2 (0.0488%)

89.: Stefon K. (0.0442%)

90.: Alyssa B. (0.0422%)

91.: Peter J. #2 (0.0356%)

92.: Dan C. (0.0335%)

92.: Valerie D. (0.0335%)

94.: Irene H. #1 (0.0335%)

95.: Alex I. (0.0316%)

96.: Elliot N. (0.0315%)

97.: Brad R. #2 (0.0244%)

97.: Klei R. #2 (0.0244%)

99.: Brian K. #3 (0.0213%)

99.: Scott H. #2 (0.0213%)

101.: Brandon B. (0.017%)

102.: Brett G. #2 (0.0122%)

102.: Kirt R. #2 (0.0122%)

104.: Michelle L. #3 (0.0091%)

105.: Jonathan J. (0.0061%)

105.: Tomas L. #1 (0.0061%)

107.: Dennis R. #1 (0.004%)

108.: Brandon H. #1 (0.0035%)

109.: Michelle L. #1 (0.0021%)

110.: Hutch H. #1 (0.0012%)

 ..and the probabilities for 4^th place:

1.: Dianna A. (4.5026%)

2.: Ben W. (4.1108%)

3.: Howard S. #2 (3.6855%)

4.: Paul W. (3.2192%)

5.: Mark A. #1 (3.1753%)

6.: Irene H. #6 (3.1256%)

7.: Harrell R. #1 (3.0629%)

8.: Bret K. #2 (2.8561%)

9.: Brian K. #1 (2.7768%)

10.: Colston W. (2.7664%)

11.: Molly R. (2.5443%)

12.: Mason A. #2 (2.4315%)

13.: Chun W. #2 (2.3635%)

14.: Amanda R. (2.302%)

15.: Jared B. (2.2402%)

16.: Clifton H. #2 (2.1439%)

17.: Scott K. (2.1301%)

18.: James P. (2.0416%)

19.: Clifton H. #1 (1.8625%)

20.: John M. #4 (1.7461%)

21.: Keal B. (1.7405%)

21.: Peter J. #3 (1.7405%)

23.: Harrell R. #2 (1.6347%)

24.: Michelle L. #2 (1.6337%)

25.: Howard S. #1 (1.5955%)

26.: Jackson I. (1.478%)

27.: Brian K. #2 (1.4012%)

28.: Brandon H. #2 (1.3361%)

29.: Brad R. #4 (1.2847%)

30.: Jay H. #2 (1.2659%)

31.: Brent E. #2 (1.1144%)

32.: Brett G. #3 (1.0375%)

33.: Eric G. #2 (1.0139%)

34.: Roth W. (1.0091%)

35.: Hutch H. #2 (0.9658%)

36.: Brett G. #4 (0.9445%)

37.: Ann K. (0.9399%)

38.: Mike N. (0.9289%)

39.: Dennis R. #2 (0.9049%)

40.: Andrew D. #1 (0.9002%)

41.: Owen R. (0.8946%)

42.: Jim D. #2 (0.8802%)

43.: John M. #3 (0.8641%)

44.: Chun W. #4 (0.8626%)

45.: Elizabeth N. #2 (0.8302%)

46.: Jason S. (0.7588%)

47.: Klei R. #3 - Jay B. (0.6828%)

48.: Scott H. #1 (0.6374%)

49.: Peter J. #4 (0.6098%)

50.: Jace D. (0.5966%)

51.: Justin M. (0.5488%)

52.: Matt M. (0.5208%)

53.: Daniel Du. (0.5109%)

54.: Brent E. #4 (0.504%)

55.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.4933%)

56.: Jaxon S. (0.4916%)

57.: Brent E. #3 (0.4613%)

58.: Brian K. #4 (0.4559%)

59.: Peter J. #1 (0.4254%)

60.: Tucker D. (0.4241%)

61.: Klei R. - BO (0.3777%)

62.: Eric G. #1 (0.3692%)

63.: Eric S. (0.3687%)

64.: Dylan B. (0.3524%)

65.: Chris E. (0.3213%)

66.: Rob I. (0.3115%)

67.: Shawn M. (0.3097%)

68.: Ally H. (0.3012%)

69.: Zach V. (0.2985%)

70.: Chris T. #1 (0.2621%)

71.: Irene H. #2 (0.239%)

72.: Marc R. (0.2294%)

73.: Matt N. (0.2227%)

74.: William G. #1 (0.2095%)

75.: Irene H. #5 (0.2059%)

76.: Dan Dz. (0.2019%)

77.: Tyler B. (0.1892%)

78.: Klei R. #1 (0.181%)

79.: Karen C. (0.1612%)

80.: Addie H. (0.1602%)

81.: Mason A. #1 (0.1419%)

82.: Paul Kr. (0.1408%)

83.: Alyssa B. (0.1393%)

84.: Josh C. (0.1251%)

85.: Tomas L. #2 (0.1159%)

86.: Alex I. (0.1081%)

87.: Virginia L. (0.1037%)

88.: Missy W. (0.1027%)

89.: Peter J. #2 (0.0996%)

90.: Brett W. (0.0976%)

90.: Irene H. #1 (0.0976%)

92.: Eric V. (0.093%)

93.: Brian K. #3 (0.0859%)

93.: Scott H. #2 (0.0859%)

95.: Brandon B. (0.0676%)

96.: Brad R. #2 (0.059%)

97.: Tina H. (0.0539%)

98.: Stefon K. (0.0523%)

99.: Chun W. #1 (0.0518%)

100.: Dan C. (0.0501%)

100.: Valerie D. (0.0501%)

102.: Brett G. #2 (0.0457%)

103.: Elliot N. (0.0447%)

104.: Jim W. (0.0396%)

104.: Michelle L. #3 (0.0396%)

106.: Brett G. #1 (0.0305%)

107.: Mike McQ. (0.0244%)

108.: Jonathan J. (0.0203%)

109.: Klei R. #2 (0.0203%)

110.: Kirt R. #2 (0.0193%)

111.: Irene H. #3 (0.0183%)

112.: Michelle L. #1 (0.0168%)

113.: Chad L. (0.0152%)

114.: Dennis R. #1 (0.0122%)

114.: Tomas L. #1 (0.0122%)

116.: Brent E. #1 (0.0089%)

117.: Brandon H. #1 (0.0071%)

118.: Jim D. #1 (0.0061%)

119.: Hutch H. #1 (0.0036%)

120.: Damien R. #3 (0.003%)

121.: Kirt R. #1 (0.002%)

 I put this together last year, and it was pretty popular.  It is sorted by total probability of winning anything.

Name	Champion	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Brian K. #1	Alabama	16.4607%	4.2992%	4.3702%	2.7768%
Dianna A.	Arkansas	7.5851%	3.4409%	2.2823%	4.5026%
Molly R.	Michigan	7.2388%	3.2152%	2.8373%	2.5444%
Clifton H. #2	Gonzaga	7.5195%	3.4841%	2.3558%	2.1439%
Amanda R.	Ohio State	2.6693%	6.0705%	3.4022%	2.3020%
Irene H. #6	Michigan	2.2884%	4.9069%	3.7859%	3.1257%
Ben W.	Gonzaga	2.0681%	3.2794%	4.0181%	4.1108%
Bret K. #2	Baylor	1.9018%	2.6408%	4.8553%	2.8561%
Ann K.	Illinois	5.4362%	3.7893%	1.7863%	0.9399%
Michelle L. #2	Houston	5.0695%	2.4521%	2.0528%	1.6337%
Colston W.	Michigan	1.6413%	3.1555%	3.6387%	2.7664%
Jackson I.	Baylor	2.5238%	3.3447%	3.6219%	1.4781%
Brian K. #4	Florida State	6.9667%	2.3880%	1.0119%	0.4560%
Mark A. #1	Baylor	2.0203%	2.3671%	2.9991%	3.1754%
Harrell R. #1	Gonzaga	0.9801%	1.9470%	2.5243%	3.0629%
Paul W.	Houston	1.4465%	1.6769%	2.0781%	3.2193%
John M. #3	Florida State	1.1017%	5.3284%	0.9043%	0.8642%
Brandon H. #2	Houston	0.4761%	3.1962%	2.6794%	1.3362%
Howard S. #2	Houston	1.0986%	0.9430%	1.9521%	3.6855%
Daniel Du.	Oregon	5.7617%	0.5679%	0.5236%	0.5109%
Chun W. #2	Gonzaga	0.9196%	1.7838%	2.0177%	2.3636%
John M. #4	Georgetown	1.1108%	2.6357%	1.5422%	1.7461%
Clifton H. #1	Michigan	1.2538%	1.6703%	1.7456%	1.8626%
Chun W. #4	Alabama	Sweet 16	4.0222%	1.3306%	0.8626%
James P.	Illinois	0.6516%	1.3107%	2.1454%	2.0416%
Jared B.	Gonzaga	0.6134%	1.3400%	1.7804%	2.2402%
Scott K.	Baylor	0.8545%	0.9745%	2.0111%	2.1301%
Mason A. #2	Illinois	0.5961%	1.2329%	1.5500%	2.4316%
Tucker D.	Alabama	0.0977%	1.2207%	3.8361%	0.4242%
Owen R.	UC Santa Barbara	2.0803%	1.0821%	1.5196%	0.8947%
Howard S. #1	Baylor	0.7187%	1.5513%	1.0763%	1.5956%
Roth W.	Baylor	1.2039%	1.5101%	1.1642%	1.0091%
Keal B.	Michigan	0.4001%	1.0398%	1.5093%	1.7406%
Peter J. #3	Michigan	0.4001%	1.0398%	1.5093%	1.7406%
Jay H. #2	Baylor	0.7751%	0.9537%	1.1063%	1.2660%
Brian K. #2	Oklahoma State	0.1892%	1.1169%	1.3438%	1.4013%
Harrell R. #2	Iowa	0.3601%	0.9842%	1.0442%	1.6347%
Brent E. #2	Michigan	0.7278%	1.0971%	1.0173%	1.1144%
Jason S.	Gonzaga	0.5432%	1.1302%	1.0274%	0.7589%
Andrew D. #1	Baylor	0.2533%	0.8469%	0.7324%	0.9003%
Brad R. #4	Michigan	Sweet 16	0.2655%	1.0956%	1.2848%
Mike N.	Gonzaga	0.1933%	0.5819%	0.5930%	0.9290%
Jim D. #2	Gonzaga	0.2548%	0.4150%	0.6992%	0.8803%
Scott H. #1	Gonzaga	0.3235%	0.5811%	0.6579%	0.6374%
Elizabeth N. #1	Gonzaga	0.5981%	0.7172%	0.3296%	0.4934%
Elizabeth N. #2	Illinois	0.1862%	0.4384%	0.6378%	0.8303%
Brent E. #4	Baylor	0.3784%	0.7660%	0.3937%	0.5040%
Brett G. #3	Illinois	0.2991%	0.0916%	0.6104%	1.0376%
Brett G. #4	Baylor	0.0473%	0.3367%	0.5775%	0.9445%
Dennis R. #2	Michigan	0.1254%	0.2827%	0.5101%	0.9049%
Hutch H. #2	Baylor	Sweet 16	0.3174%	0.4107%	0.9659%
Klei R. #3 - Jay B.	Gonzaga	0.0636%	0.3316%	0.5787%	0.6829%
Eric G. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	0.1373%	0.3822%	1.0139%
Matt M.	Gonzaga	0.1495%	0.3703%	0.4456%	0.5208%
Tyler B.	Michigan	0.2930%	0.3784%	0.4659%	0.1892%
Peter J. #4	Baylor	0.0916%	0.1556%	0.4440%	0.6098%
Justin M.	Gonzaga	0.1938%	0.0631%	0.2401%	0.5488%
Marc R.	Gonzaga	0.2050%	0.3944%	0.1981%	0.2295%
Klei R. - BO	Gonzaga	0.1465%	0.1862%	0.2828%	0.3777%
Jaxon S.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0320%	0.4496%	0.4916%
Jace D.	Florida	Sweet 16	0.0473%	0.2767%	0.5966%
Eric G. #1	Gonzaga	0.0320%	0.1887%	0.2871%	0.3693%
Brent E. #3	Illinois	Sweet 16	0.0580%	0.3255%	0.4613%
Ally H.	Gonzaga	0.0407%	0.1719%	0.2932%	0.3012%
Eric S.	Baylor	Sweet 16	0.1343%	0.2981%	0.3688%
Rob I.	Gonzaga	0.0422%	0.1251%	0.2379%	0.3116%
Zach V.	Illinois	0.0366%	0.1343%	0.2299%	0.2986%
Josh C.	Baylor	Sweet 16	0.0977%	0.4761%	0.1251%
Peter J. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0865%	0.1640%	0.4255%
Chris E.	Iowa	Sweet 16	0.0687%	0.2294%	0.3214%
Chris T. #1	Gonzaga	0.0488%	0.0854%	0.1616%	0.2622%
Dylan B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	0.0331%	0.1689%	0.3525%
Dan Dz.	Illinois	0.0885%	0.1376%	0.1149%	0.2019%
Shawn M.	Illinois	Sweet 16	0.0336%	0.1953%	0.3098%
Klei R. #1	Gonzaga	0.0488%	0.1160%	0.1272%	0.1811%
Addie H.	Ohio State	0.0488%	0.1200%	0.0987%	0.1602%
William G. #1	Baylor	Sweet 16	0.0580%	0.1546%	0.2096%
Irene H. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.1251%	0.2391%
Mason A. #1	Gonzaga	0.0366%	0.0814%	0.0926%	0.1419%
Karen C.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0549%	0.1078%	0.1612%
Paul Kr.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0351%	0.1236%	0.1409%
Matt N.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0732%	0.2228%
Missy W.	Baylor	Sweet 16	0.0244%	0.1678%	0.1027%
Irene H. #5	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0504%	0.2060%
Virginia L.	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.1160%	0.1038%
Tomas L. #2	Baylor	Sweet 16	0.0244%	0.0488%	0.1160%
Jim W.	Illinois	0.0244%	0.0610%	0.0610%	0.0397%
Alyssa B.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0422%	0.1394%
Stefon K.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0773%	0.0443%	0.0524%
Eric V.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0519%	0.0931%
Alex I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0316%	0.1082%
Peter J. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0356%	0.0997%
Irene H. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0336%	0.0977%
Brad R. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0244%	0.0244%	0.0590%
Brian K. #3	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0214%	0.0860%
Scott H. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0214%	0.0860%
Dan C.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0168%	0.0336%	0.0502%
Valerie D.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	0.0168%	0.0336%	0.0502%
Brett W.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0977%
Elliot N.	Illinois	Sweet 16	0.0092%	0.0315%	0.0448%
Brandon B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0170%	0.0676%
Brett G. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0122%	0.0458%
Tina H.	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0539%
Chun W. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0519%
Michelle L. #3	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0092%	0.0397%
Klei R. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0244%	0.0203%
Kirt R. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0122%	0.0193%
Brett G. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0305%
Jonathan J.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0061%	0.0203%
Mike McQ.	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0244%
Michelle L. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0021%	0.0168%
Irene H. #3	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0183%
Tomas L. #1	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0061%	0.0122%
Dennis R. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0041%	0.0122%
Chad L.	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0153%
Brandon H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0036%	0.0071%
Brent E. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0090%
Jim D. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0061%
Hutch H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0012%	0.0037%
Damien R. #3	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0031%
Kirt R. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	0.0020%
Adam E. #1	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Adam E. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Alyssa N.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Andrew D. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Andy M.	Connecticut	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Avery S.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Becky H	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brad R. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brad R. #3	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Bret K. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chris T. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chrissy I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chun W. #3	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Cicely K.	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Cindy R.	Virginia	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Craig G.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #10	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #3	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #4	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #5	West Virginia	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #6	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #7	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #8	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #9	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #4	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daniel E.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dave M.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Drew R.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dustin B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Gary W.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Gigi I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Harrell R. #3	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Hutch H. #3	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #4	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jay H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jay H. #3	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #2	Connecticut	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
JoJo D.	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Juju Suki I.	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Klei R. - Seth D.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Klei R. - WaPo	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mark A. #2	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michael Wh.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mike S.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mike Wi.	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Nate R.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Nick I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Nick V.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Noah N.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Peter J. #5	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray M. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray M. #2	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ryan W.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Steve D.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
William G. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16

 That’s good for now.  The next games are on Saturday.  Normally, I don’t like the schedule for the Sweet 16 games because they are on Th/Fr night and they play two doubleheaders.  Since the schedule is all messed up this year, the games are on Saturday and Sunday this year, and they are playing them sequentially, so I can put out updates between games and more pointed elimination scenarios.  I’m more excited about that than I should be.

Good luck everyone!!!!