Sweet 16 wrap-up and Houston v Oregon State

 It seemed like today was a little more chalky, but yesterday there was only one upset by the seeds, and today there also was only one upset by the seeds.  It was a pretty significant one through – more so than yesterday.  Alabama choked away a chance to win the game at the free throw line.  They made a miracle three to go to overtime, but then decided to stop playing defense.  As a result, they were the only upset of the day, and it knocked out a lot of people.

Actually, every game knocked out a lot of people.  That’s what happens when you have 90+ people alive for 4 spots and only 11 games left.  Every one of them is meaningful to pretty much everyone.

Just as yesterday, no one went 4/4.  As a side note, I know a few people pick Michigan State every year in this pool to go really far.  This year, they were in the play-in game.  However, if you stuck with that Michigan State pick right now, you would be getting credit for all these UCLA wins.  I know it’s not exactly what you would’ve wanted, but it’s a nice bonus if you get it.  Essentially, you are not taking a particular team, you are taking “winner of play-in game TBD” and you get whoever that is once it has been decided.  Here’s the breakdown of the picks today:

2nd round pts.	Count
12	11
8	102
4	58
0	10

 A lot of people got points for Gonzaga and Michigan today, which makes sense given they are the #1 seeds.  They also both looked like #1 seeds today.  Here’s the overall picks in the Sweet 16:

2nd round pts.	Count
24	1
20	12
16	55
12	66
8	31
4	12
0	4

Congratulations to Paul Kr. for picking the most games right in the Sweet 16, going 6/8.  The only games he missed were UCLA (Connecticut) and Oregon State (Georgia Tech).  He moved up in the points standings from 129^th coming into the Sweet 16 to 12^th now as a result of that performance.  He can’t win, but he has an 8.2% chance of winning something right now, and that’s a much better position than he was in 2 days ago.

There are only 4 people left that can get all 4 of the Final 4 teams right.  Ironically enough, all 4 have the same 4, as well as the same Championship game and Champion.  Scott H. #1, Klei R. #1, Ally H. and Irene H. #2 all have Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor and Houston in the Final 4, and Gonzaga beating Baylor in the Championship.  For those of you scoring at home, that means those 4 people can still get 50% of the points in the pool if they get those 7 games right.  That’s why these late games are so important and the earlier games not as much.

On the flip side, there are 13 people who can no longer get any more points.  Interestingly, the person that has the most busted bracket, but can still win something is Mason A. #2.  He can only get Michigan and Arkansas into the Final 4, but he has Illinois over Kansas in the Finals.  He can still win the pool.  He would need the Final 4 to be USC, UCLA, Arkansas and Oregon State, then have the finals be UCLA v Oregon State and he would still win.  That seems really unlikely, but he has a better chance than those people that mathematically eliminated.

Here the updated matrix after the Sweet 16:

Name	Game 63	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Colston W.	Michigan	17.4479%	13.4115%	5.2083%	4.5573%
Michelle L. #2	Houston	19.5313%	4.2969%	3.5156%	2.3438%
Jackson I.	Baylor	10.9375%	6.2500%	1.5625%	3.9063%
Dianna A.	Arkansas	10.9375%	4.6875%	1.5625%	3.1250%
Ann K.	Illinois	7.0313%	7.4219%	3.9063%	0.3906%
Roth W.	Baylor	5.7292%	5.2083%	5.5990%	2.2135%
Brandon H. #2	Houston	1.5625%	12.8906%	1.9531%	1.5625%
Mark A. #1	Baylor	3.9063%	5.4688%	3.9063%	4.6875%
Irene H. #6	Michigan	Syracuse	3.1250%	10.1563%	3.1250%
Howard S. #2	Houston	Alabama	Alabama	7.0313%	7.8125%
Scott H. #1	Gonzaga	1.9531%	3.5156%	3.5156%	5.8594%
Paul W.	Houston	Villanova	O. Roberts	6.2500%	7.8125%
Chun W. #2	Gonzaga	2.7344%	1.9531%	4.2969%	3.5156%
Brad R. #4	Michigan	Sweet 16	5.4688%	3.9063%	2.3438%
Matt M.	Gonzaga	2.3438%	5.0781%	1.5625%	1.9531%
Paul Kr.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	2.3438%	4.2969%	1.5625%
Brent E. #2	Michigan	1.8229%	3.2552%	2.0833%	0.6510%
Peter J. #4	Baylor	1.5625%	Oregon	5.0781%	1.1719%
Klei R. - BO	Gonzaga	2.3438%	1.1719%	0.7813%	2.3438%
Elizabeth N. #1	Gonzaga	3.1250%	1.5625%	0.7813%	0.7813%
Elizabeth N. #2	Illinois	Flo. State	1.5625%	2.3438%	2.0833%
Dennis R. #2	Michigan	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	1.8229%	4.1667%
Keal B.	Michigan	Alabama	Alabama	1.8229%	4.1667%
Peter J. #3	Michigan	Alabama	Alabama	1.8229%	4.1667%
Klei R. #1	Gonzaga	Alabama	0.7813%	2.3438%	2.7344%
Mason A. #2	Illinois	1.5625%	Oregon	3.1250%	0.5208%
Ben W.	Gonzaga	1.5625%	0.7813%	Oregon	2.7344%
Tyler B.	Michigan	3.1250%	0.7813%	Oregon	Syracuse
William G. #1	Baylor	Sweet 16	0.7813%	0.7813%	2.2135%
Ally H.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	Alabama	0.7813%	2.3438%
Brent E. #4	Baylor	Syracuse	3.1250%	Creighton	Syracuse
Hutch H. #2	Baylor	Sweet 16	1.5625%	Oregon	1.5625%
Jason S.	Gonzaga	Alabama	0.7813%	1.1719%	1.1719%
Clifton H. #2	Gonzaga	Syracuse	0.7813%	0.7813%	0.7813%
Howard S. #1	Baylor	Flo. State	1.1719%	0.3906%	0.7813%
Dan Dz.	Illinois	0.7813%	Alabama	Alabama	1.1719%
Scott K.	Baylor	Flo. State	Alabama	Oregon	1.9531%
Bret K. #2	Baylor	Flo. State	Flo. State	0.7813%	1.0417%
Jim D. #2	Gonzaga	Oregon	Oregon	0.7813%	0.7813%
Josh C.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Creighton	1.5625%	Alabama
Karen C.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Syracuse	0.7813%	0.7813%
Mike N.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	0.3906%	0.7813%	0.3906%
Tomas L. #2	Baylor	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	0.7813%	0.7813%
Brent E. #3	Illinois	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	0.7813%
Jim W.	Illinois	Alabama	0.3906%	0.3906%	Alabama
Matt N.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Alabama	0.7813%
Irene H. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	0.3906%
Adam E. #1	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Adam E. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Addie H.	Ohio State	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Creighton
Alex I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Alyssa B.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova
Alyssa N.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Amanda R.	Ohio State	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
Andrew D. #1	Baylor	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Andrew D. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Andy M.	Connecticut	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Avery S.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Becky H	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brad R. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brad R. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Brad R. #3	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brandon B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Alabama
Brandon H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova
Brent E. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Bret K. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Brett G. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Brett G. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Flo. State
Brett G. #3	Illinois	Alabama	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama
Brett G. #4	Baylor	O. Roberts	Flo. State	Alabama	Oregon
Brett W.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Brian K. #1	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Brian K. #2	Oklahoma State	Flo. State	Alabama	Alabama	Flo. State
Brian K. #3	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse
Brian K. #4	Florida State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Chad L.	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
Chris E.	Iowa	Sweet 16	Creighton	Flo. State	Flo. State
Chris T. #1	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Alabama	Flo. State
Chris T. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chrissy I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chun W. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse
Chun W. #3	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Chun W. #4	Alabama	Sweet 16	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Cicely K.	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Cindy R.	Virginia	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Clifton H. #1	Michigan	Syracuse	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama
Craig G.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #10	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #3	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #4	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #5	West Virginia	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #6	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #7	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #8	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #9	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Damien R. #3	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova
Damien R. #4	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dan C.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova	Villanova
Daniel Du.	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Flo. State	Oregon
Daniel E.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dave M.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dennis R. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova
Drew R.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dustin B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Dylan B.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Elliot N.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Eric G. #1	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Flo. State	Alabama
Eric G. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Eric S.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Eric V.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Oregon	Oregon
Gary W.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Gigi I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Harrell R. #1	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Harrell R. #2	Iowa	Loyola-Chi	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Creighton
Harrell R. #3	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Hutch H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Hutch H. #3	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #1	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Irene H. #3	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Creighton
Irene H. #4	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Irene H. #5	Ohio State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse
Jace D.	Florida	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Flo. State
James P.	Illinois	Syracuse	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Jared B.	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Jaxon S.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Jay H. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jay H. #2	Baylor	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Oregon
Jay H. #3	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jim D. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts
John M. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #2	Connecticut	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
John M. #3	Florida State	Creighton	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
John M. #4	Georgetown	Villanova	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
JoJo D.	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Jonathan J.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Juju Suki I.	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Justin M.	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Syracuse	Flo. State	Flo. State
Kirt R. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse
Kirt R. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse
Klei R. - Seth D.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Klei R. - WaPo	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Klei R. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Alabama	Flo. State
Klei R. #3 - Jay B.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Syracuse	Alabama
Marc R.	Gonzaga	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
Mark A. #2	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mason A. #1	Gonzaga	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State	Flo. State
Michael Wh.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Michelle L. #3	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Mike McQ.	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Flo. State
Mike S.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Mike Wi.	Iowa	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Missy W.	Baylor	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Molly R.	Michigan	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
Nate R.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Nick I.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Nick V.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Noah N.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Owen R.	UC Santa Barbara	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Peter J. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama
Peter J. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	Syracuse
Peter J. #5	Oklahoma State	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray M. #1	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Ray M. #2	Kansas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Rob I.	Gonzaga	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Syracuse
Ryan W.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Scott H. #2	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Syracuse	Syracuse
Shawn M.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova	Villanova
Stefon K.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Steve D.	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Tina H.	Michigan	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Villanova
Tomas L. #1	Baylor	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	O. Roberts	O. Roberts
Tucker D.	Alabama	Syracuse	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
Valerie D.	Gonzaga	Sweet 16	Villanova	Villanova	Villanova
Virginia L.	Texas	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Flo. State	Creighton
William G. #2	Illinois	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
Zach V.	Illinois	O. Roberts	O. Roberts	Syracuse	Oregon

 Games start up again tomorrow afternoon, with trips to the Final 4 on the line.  More importantly, 8 points are on the line for everyone.  Here are the eliminations for the first game:

If Houston wins:

Ann K. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Ben W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Clifton H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Dan Dz. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Elizabeth N. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Hutch H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Jim W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Karen C. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Klei R. - BO is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Mason A. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Mike N. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Scott K. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Tyler B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

 If Oregon State wins:

Ally H. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Brandon H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Bret K. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Elizabeth N. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Howard S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Irene H. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Jackson I. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Paul W. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Tomas L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

 In a strange twist, it looks like Elizabeth N. is going to be knocking one of her brackets out whoever winds up winning.  That happens sometimes, especially when you have multiple brackets and they are both doing well.  Also, I’m guessing there are more than a few Beaver bandwagon riders right about now, especially if you are looking at being eliminated.

Good luck to everyone!!!!