I was looking at the brackets overall, and there seems to be some conventional wisdom of how this tournament is going to play out. It seems to go like this:
Gonzaga and Illinois will meet in the finals. Baylor or Ohio State will probably make the Final 4 from the South bracket, and nobody has any idea who will come out of the East bracket.
The data backs that up.
Here’s the breakdown for the West bracket:
Gonzaga |
131 |
Iowa |
23 |
Kansas |
13 |
Virginia |
4 |
Oregon |
4 |
USC |
2 |
Oklahoma |
2 |
UC
Santa Barbara |
1 |
Creighton |
1 |
|
|
So, yeah…. Everyone
likes Gonzaga. I think Kansas might be a
sneaky good pick. They aren’t a
typically good Kansas team, and they had to miss some recent games because of
COVID, so I’m sure people weren’t all that high on them, but they are probably
better than a 7% chance to win this region.
Oh, and the defending National Champion is in this bracket – and 4 people
picked them to make the Final 4. Times
have really changed.
Here’s the breakdown of the Midwest Bracket:
Illinois |
109 |
Houston |
27 |
Oklahoma
State |
18 |
West
Virginia |
12 |
San
Diego State |
7 |
Tennessee |
3 |
Loyola-Chicago |
2 |
Syracuse |
2 |
Clemson |
1 |
Kind of the same circumstance as the West region. Illinois is the clear favorite to come out of
this region. I also think that people
aren’t in love with Houston because they come from the American Athletic
Conference and not one of the Power 5.
That being said, more people took them than did Iowa, so things are pretty
standard.
Things get a little more interesting in the South:
Baylor |
86 |
Ohio
State |
56 |
Arkansas |
15 |
Texas
Tech |
7 |
Purdue |
6 |
North
Carolina |
3 |
Wisconsin |
3 |
Villanova |
2 |
Florida |
2 |
Oral
Roberts |
1 |
People seem more inclined to take Ohio State than the other
#2 seeds. I think there is a feeling
that the Big 10 weas super tough this year.
I am of the opinion that the Big 10 is about 5 teams deep with good
teams (Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa & Purdue). After that, the teams get into mediocre territory. Teams like Maryland and Rutgers I would
rather see replaced in the tournament with Colorado State or even Toledo or Belmont. Then again, I’m always partial to smaller
conference teams over mid-table Big conference teams.
The East region is everyone’s wacky bracket:
Michigan |
62 |
Alabama |
47 |
Texas |
33 |
Florida
State |
20 |
Connecticut |
9 |
Colorado |
4 |
Maryland |
1 |
BYU |
1 |
St.
Bonaventure |
1 |
UCLA |
1 |
LSU |
1 |
Georgetown |
1 |
It looks like Michigan is the favorite, but there’s a lot of
people picking other teams, and not just the #2 seed. Texas as the 3 and Florida State as the 4
seed are getting a lot of love as well.
I think losing Isiah Livers could really cost them. At one point, I had them as #2 in the
country. I don’t really know what to
make of them right now. Apparently, I’m
not alone.
Before the tournament started, I predicted that 80% of the picks to win it would be either Gonzaga, Illinois or Baylor. I was a little off. It was 68%. Here are the picks:
Gonzaga |
65 |
Illinois |
36 |
Baylor |
22 |
Michigan |
14 |
Ohio
State |
8 |
Oklahoma
State |
5 |
Iowa |
5 |
Kansas |
4 |
Texas |
4 |
Houston |
4 |
Alabama |
3 |
Connecticut |
2 |
Florida
State |
2 |
Arkansas |
1 |
Virginia |
1 |
UC
Santa Barbara |
1 |
Georgetown |
1 |
West
Virginia |
1 |
Oregon |
1 |
Florida |
1 |
Here are the matchups in the Finals
Gonzaga-Illinois |
46 |
Gonzaga-Baylor |
30 |
Gonzaga-Ohio
State |
12 |
Iowa-Illinois |
7 |
Michigan-Illinois |
7 |
Michigan-Ohio
State |
7 |
Iowa-Baylor |
6 |
Gonzaga-Oklahoma
State |
6 |
Kansas-Baylor |
4 |
Gonzaga-Houston |
3 |
Gonzaga-San
Diego State |
3 |
Michigan-Baylor |
3 |
Alabama-Oklahoma
State |
2 |
Iowa-Houston |
2 |
Alabama-Ohio
State |
2 |
Texas-Houston |
2 |
Alabama-Baylor |
2 |
Alabama-Illinois |
2 |
Michigan-Arkansas |
2 |
So, if you picked Gonzaga and Illinois in the finals, you
need to do well in these opening rounds.
There’s a lot of people in the same boat as you, and you need to
separate yourself.
Back to the games.
Colgate is running Arkansas out of the gym right now. We may have an upset special!!!!!
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