Friday, March 19, 2021

Final and REgional Final distributions

I was looking at the brackets overall, and there seems to be some conventional wisdom of how this tournament is going to play out.  It seems to go like this: 

Gonzaga and Illinois will meet in the finals.  Baylor or Ohio State will probably make the Final 4 from the South bracket, and nobody has any idea who will come out of the East bracket.

The data backs that up.

Here’s the breakdown for the West bracket:

Gonzaga

131

Iowa

23

Kansas

13

Virginia

4

Oregon

4

USC

2

Oklahoma

2

UC Santa Barbara

1

Creighton

1

 

 


So, yeah….  Everyone likes Gonzaga.  I think Kansas might be a sneaky good pick.  They aren’t a typically good Kansas team, and they had to miss some recent games because of COVID, so I’m sure people weren’t all that high on them, but they are probably better than a 7% chance to win this region.  Oh, and the defending National Champion is in this bracket – and 4 people picked them to make the Final 4.  Times have really changed.

Here’s the breakdown of the Midwest Bracket:

Illinois

109

Houston

27

Oklahoma State

18

West Virginia

12

San Diego State

7

Tennessee

3

Loyola-Chicago

2

Syracuse

2

Clemson

1


Kind of the same circumstance as the West region.  Illinois is the clear favorite to come out of this region.  I also think that people aren’t in love with Houston because they come from the American Athletic Conference and not one of the Power 5.  That being said, more people took them than did Iowa, so things are pretty standard.

Things get a little more interesting in the South:

Baylor

86

Ohio State

56

Arkansas

15

Texas Tech

7

Purdue

6

North Carolina

3

Wisconsin

3

Villanova

2

Florida

2

Oral Roberts

1


People seem more inclined to take Ohio State than the other #2 seeds.  I think there is a feeling that the Big 10 weas super tough this year.  I am of the opinion that the Big 10 is about 5 teams deep with good teams (Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa & Purdue).  After that, the teams get into mediocre territory.  Teams like Maryland and Rutgers I would rather see replaced in the tournament with Colorado State or even Toledo or Belmont.  Then again, I’m always partial to smaller conference teams over mid-table Big conference teams.

The East region is everyone’s wacky bracket:

Michigan

62

Alabama

47

Texas

33

Florida State

20

Connecticut

9

Colorado

4

Maryland

1

BYU

1

St. Bonaventure

1

UCLA

1

LSU

1

Georgetown

1


It looks like Michigan is the favorite, but there’s a lot of people picking other teams, and not just the #2 seed.  Texas as the 3 and Florida State as the 4 seed are getting a lot of love as well.  I think losing Isiah Livers could really cost them.  At one point, I had them as #2 in the country.  I don’t really know what to make of them right now.  Apparently, I’m not alone.

Before the tournament started, I predicted that 80% of the picks to win it would be either Gonzaga, Illinois or Baylor.  I was a little off.  It was 68%.  Here are the picks:

Gonzaga

65

Illinois

36

Baylor

22

Michigan

14

Ohio State

8

Oklahoma State

5

Iowa

5

Kansas

4

Texas

4

Houston

4

Alabama

3

Connecticut

2

Florida State

2

Arkansas

1

Virginia

1

UC Santa Barbara

1

Georgetown

1

West Virginia

1

Oregon

1

Florida

1


Here are the matchups in the Finals 

Gonzaga-Illinois

46

Gonzaga-Baylor

30

Gonzaga-Ohio State

12

Iowa-Illinois

7

Michigan-Illinois

7

Michigan-Ohio State

7

Iowa-Baylor

6

Gonzaga-Oklahoma State

6

Kansas-Baylor

4

Gonzaga-Houston

3

Gonzaga-San Diego State

3

Michigan-Baylor

3

Alabama-Oklahoma State

2

Iowa-Houston

2

Alabama-Ohio State

2

Texas-Houston

2

Alabama-Baylor

2

Alabama-Illinois

2

Michigan-Arkansas

2


So, if you picked Gonzaga and Illinois in the finals, you need to do well in these opening rounds.  There’s a lot of people in the same boat as you, and you need to separate yourself.

Back to the games.  Colgate is running Arkansas out of the gym right now.  We may have an upset special!!!!!

No comments:

Post a Comment