Saturday, March 20, 2021

March Madness - End of 1st Round

 Well, I said I wanted upsets and I definitely got them.  There were essentially only 2 games worth watching tonight, since Oregon was going to advance without playing and Gonzaga was not going to be challenged by Norfolk State.  That left us with UCLA / BYU and Abilene Christian / Texas.  I mentioned in the last post that I wasn’t sure how good Texas actually was.  I guess they weren’t as good as some people thought.  I watched almost the entire game, and for the life of me I don’t know why Texas didn’t post up the guards of Abilene Christian.  Both of the guards for Abilene Christian were less than 6 feet tall.  One guy was 5’7”.  That would be like posting me up.  Trust me, I’m not stopping too many college basketball players If they get the ball in the post.  Seriously, get the ball in the post and just shoot a turn around jumper over the top of the 5’7” guy until they stop you.  Time after time, Texas would come down the court and all 5 Texas players would be outside of the 3-point line.  I guess that’s part of the fun of the tournament.  You get to be armchair coach for a little bit.  Still, I wonder if Texas is going to fire Shaka Smart after this.  He hasn’t really met expectations while at Texas.  I’m not too worried about him.  If he gets fired, there’ll be a ton of schools that would hire him.

As for BYU, apparently Johnny Juzang is doing his best Carmelo Anthony impression.  He seems unstoppable.  For a little while in the second half, BYU was running this gimmicky defense where one guy had the sole job of keeping the ball out of his hands.  I thought that was a particularly good defense.  It seemed to work for a little while.  It’s a 1-game playoff, you might as well break out the gimmicky defenses.  Anyway, it didn’t work, so UCLA scored the second upset of the late games.

The third biggest upset of the later games was obviously COVID, which single handedly took out VCU.  Again, I hope everyone is OK there.  Sad for them to not even get to play at all.

That means the last set of 4 games are done.  Everyone got a point for Gonzaga.  Good job everyone.  Only 3 people managed to go 4/4 (Clifton H. #1, Matt M., Steve D.).  That’s some pretty good picking.  Here’s the distribution:

4 wins: 3

3 wins: 71

2 wins: 87

1 win: 20

So, we did a little better as a group than we did yesterday.  Yesterday, the average entry won 9.81 points.  Today, we won 10.91 points – a solid 1 point improvement.  That’s probably because there were only 4 upsets today vs 6 yesterday.  I still think yesterday’s upsets were more impactful.  A lot of people had Texas going pretty far, but I think even more people had Ohio State going really far.  Plus, I think just as many people had Purdue as Virginia advancing.  I think San Diego State had more picks for it than BYU.  Still, it’s been a pretty wild bracket so far.  Not much predictable at all.

As for today, the big winner was Dylan B, who nailed a high of 15/16.  That’s a great score for this pool.  The only game he missed was Texas, so he had a real chance to have a perfect day.  Great picking, Dylan B.  On the flip side, Alyssa N took it hard on the chin as the low picker with only 7/16.  Just about any coin toss game went against her and she was a victim of all the upsets.  Just terrible luck.  None of her picks seems crazy.  They just didn’t win.

Here’s the distribution for the day in total:

Wins

Count

15

1

14

5

13

21

12

29

11

55

10

44

9

16

8

9

7

1

 As I predicted, the West was a little easier to predict than the East today.  We had 5 people got 8/8 in the West region (Colston W., Dylan B., Jared B., Jay H. #3, Nick V).  The distribution for the West region was:

Wins

Count

8

5

7

43

6

74

5

45

4

12

3

2

 Nobody went 8/8 in the East region.  Texas made sure that was a long shot possibility.  Here are the distributions for the East region:

Wins

Count

7

13

6

46

5

66

4

45

3

11

 Before we depart the world of one point games, it’s worth looking at who the biggest movers up and down the rankings were on the day.  It should come as no surprise that Dylan B. was the biggest mover up the total points standings.  He started the day in 133rd place and finished Day 2 in 11th, for an increase of 122 places.  The biggest dropper on the day was John M. #4.  He started the day in 22nd place and after getting 9 right today fell all the way to 131st.  Part of that was also due to losing his champion Georgetown, so he probably lost a few places because of tiebreakers.  Tough break John M. #4.  Hopefully your other brackets fared better.

So, here are the total point rankings after round 1:

1. Jared B.: 25 (-19) - Gonzaga

1. Klei R. #3 - Jay B.: 25 (-19) - Gonzaga

3. Jace D.: 25 (-21) - Florida

4. Dennis R. #2: 25 (-31) - Michigan

5. Dennis R. #1: 25 (-35) - Illinois

6. Howard S. #1: 24 (-18) - Baylor

6. Hutch H. #2: 24 (-18) - Baylor

8. Colston W.: 24 (-20) - Michigan

8. Harrell R. #2: 24 (-20) - Iowa

10. Brandon B.: 24 (-22) - Illinois

11. Dylan B.: 24 (-24) - Illinois

12. Jaxon S.: 24 (-32) - Gonzaga

13. Harrell R. #1: 24 (-44) - Gonzaga

13. Harrell R. #3: 24 (-44) - Michigan

15. Tina H.: 24 (-50) - Michigan

16. James P.: 23 (-13) - Illinois

17. Chris T. #2: 23 (-17) - Illinois

17. Scott K.: 23 (-17) - Baylor

17. Peter J. #1: 23 (-17) - Gonzaga

20. Mason A. #2: 23 (-19) - Illinois

20. Chris T. #1: 23 (-19) - Gonzaga

20. Mark A. #1: 23 (-19) - Baylor

23. Jim D. #2: 23 (-21) - Gonzaga

23. Dianna A.: 23 (-21) - Arkansas

23. Peter J. #4: 23 (-21) - Baylor

26. Jason S.: 23 (-23) - Gonzaga

27. Adam E. #1: 23 (-29) - Oklahoma State

28. Craig G.: 23 (-33) - Baylor

28. Hutch H. #3: 23 (-33) - Kansas

30. Nate R.: 23 (-35) - Gonzaga

31. Jackson I.: 23 (-37) - Baylor

32. Peter J. #3: 23 (-43) - Michigan

33. Keal B.: 23 (-45) - Michigan

34. Rob I.: 23 (-47) - Gonzaga

35. Mike N.: 23 (-51) - Gonzaga

36. Chun W. #4: 23 (-57) - Alabama

37. Bret K. #1: 23 (-59) - Gonzaga

38. Cicely K.: 23 (-87) - Ohio State

39. Chad L.: 23 (-91) - Ohio State

40. Irene H. #4: 23 (-109) - Texas

41. Ben W.: 22 (-16) - Gonzaga

42. Mike Wi.: 22 (-18) - Iowa

43. Brett G. #3: 22 (-20) - Illinois

43. Marc R.: 22 (-20) - Gonzaga

45. Hutch H. #1: 22 (-22) - Gonzaga

45. Justin M.: 22 (-22) - Gonzaga

47. Karen C.: 22 (-24) - Gonzaga

47. Roth W.: 22 (-24) - Baylor

49. Klei R. - BO: 22 (-26) - Gonzaga

49. Scott H. #1: 22 (-26) - Gonzaga

51. Ann K.: 22 (-28) - Illinois

51. Dan Dz.: 22 (-28) - Illinois

53. Irene H. #1: 22 (-30) - Illinois

54. Missy W.: 22 (-34) - Baylor

54. Daisy N. #2: 22 (-34) - Gonzaga

54. Irene H. #3: 22 (-34) - Baylor

57. Klei R. - WaPo: 22 (-36) - Illinois

57. Valerie D.: 22 (-36) - Gonzaga

59. Steve D.: 22 (-38) - Illinois

59. Dustin B.: 22 (-38) - Illinois

61. Zach V.: 22 (-40) - Illinois

62. JoJo D.: 22 (-44) - Oklahoma State

63. Tomas L. #1: 22 (-46) - Baylor

64. Alyssa B.: 22 (-52) - Gonzaga

65. Brandon H. #1: 22 (-64) - Gonzaga

66. Daisy N. #9: 22 (-114) - Texas

67. Irene H. #6: 21 (-17) - Michigan

68. Andrew D. #2: 21 (-23) - Illinois

68. Andrew D. #1: 21 (-23) - Baylor

68. Jim D. #1: 21 (-23) - Gonzaga

68. Matt N.: 21 (-23) - Baylor

68. Jay H. #1: 21 (-23) - Gonzaga

68. Chris E.: 21 (-23) - Iowa

74. Irene H. #2: 21 (-25) - Gonzaga

74. Bret K. #2: 21 (-25) - Baylor

74. Ray M. #2: 21 (-25) - Kansas

74. Tyler B.: 21 (-25) - Michigan

74. Shawn M.: 21 (-25) - Illinois

74. William G. #2: 21 (-25) - Illinois

80. Matt M.: 21 (-27) - Gonzaga

80. Brain K. #1: 21 (-27) - Alabama

80. Brent E. #3: 21 (-27) - Illinois

83. William G. #1: 21 (-29) - Baylor

83. Tomas L. #2: 21 (-29) - Baylor

83. Jay H. #3: 21 (-29) - Kansas

83. Howard S. #2: 21 (-29) - Houston

87. Gigi I.: 21 (-31) - Gonzaga

87. Alex I.: 21 (-31) - Gonzaga

87. Peter J. #2: 21 (-31) - Illinois

87. Elizabeth N. #2: 21 (-31) - Illinois

91. Clifton H. #2: 21 (-35) - Gonzaga

91. Chun W. #1: 21 (-35) - Illinois

93. Brad R. #1: 21 (-37) - Illinois

93. Michael Wh.: 21 (-37) - Illinois

95. Paul W.: 21 (-39) - Houston

96. Dave M.: 21 (-47) - Illinois

97. Daisy N. #4: 21 (-59) - Gonzaga

98. Nick V.: 21 (-61) - Gonzaga

99. Irene H. #5: 21 (-81) - Ohio State

100. Mike McQ.: 21 (-91) - Texas

101. Owen R.: 21 (-113) - UC Santa Barbara

102. Peter J. #5: 20 (-16) - Oklahoma State

103. Brain K. #3: 20 (-18) - Gonzaga

103. Brain K. #2: 20 (-18) - Oklahoma State

105. Eric V.: 20 (-22) - Gonzaga

106. Ally H.: 20 (-24) - Gonzaga

106. Jim W.: 20 (-24) - Illinois

106. Chun W. #3: 20 (-24) - Iowa

106. Brent E. #4: 20 (-24) - Baylor

106. Jonathan J.: 20 (-24) - Gonzaga

111. Stefon K.: 20 (-26) - Gonzaga

111. Elliot N.: 20 (-26) - Illinois

111. Brent E. #2: 20 (-26) - Michigan

114. Chun W. #2: 20 (-28) - Gonzaga

115. Clifton H. #1: 20 (-30) - Michigan

115. Klei R. - Seth D.: 20 (-30) - Gonzaga

117. Michelle L. #2: 20 (-32) - Houston

118. Adam E. #2: 20 (-34) - Illinois

119. Drew R.: 20 (-36) - Gonzaga

119. Josh C.: 20 (-36) - Baylor

119. Brandon H. #2: 20 (-36) - Houston

122. Dan C.: 20 (-38) - Gonzaga

122. Ryan W.: 20 (-38) - Illinois

124. Daisy N. #1: 20 (-42) - Gonzaga

125. Mike S.: 20 (-46) - Illinois

126. Damien R. #2: 20 (-50) - Illinois

127. Eric G. #1: 20 (-52) - Gonzaga

128. Chrissy I.: 20 (-54) - Gonzaga

129. Brad R. #4: 20 (-60) - Michigan

129. Kirt R. #1: 20 (-60) - Gonzaga

131. John M. #4: 20 (-82) - Georgetown

132. Amanda R.: 20 (-84) - Ohio State

133. Addie H.: 20 (-92) - Ohio State

134. Damien R. #4: 20 (-126) - Ohio State

135. Molly R.: 19 (-19) - Michigan

136. Jay H. #2: 19 (-23) - Baylor

136. Klei R. #1: 19 (-23) - Gonzaga

138. Brett G. #4: 19 (-27) - Baylor

139. Kirt R. #2: 19 (-29) - Gonzaga

140. Brett W.: 19 (-33) - Gonzaga

141. Brad R. #2: 19 (-35) - Gonzaga

141. Daniel E.: 19 (-35) - Illinois

143. Elizabeth N. #1: 19 (-37) - Gonzaga

144. Noah N.: 19 (-39) - Illinois

145. Avery S.: 19 (-45) - Gonzaga

146. Daisy N. #6: 19 (-49) - Illinois

147. Brain K. #4: 19 (-53) - Florida State

147. Juju Suki I.: 19 (-53) - Oklahoma State

147. Michelle L. #1: 19 (-53) - Gonzaga

150. Daniel Du.: 19 (-57) - Oregon

151. Mark A. #2: 19 (-65) - Michigan

152. Virginia L.: 19 (-85) - Texas

153. Scott H. #2: 18 (-22) - Gonzaga

154. Daisy N. #3: 18 (-26) - Baylor

155. Gary W.: 18 (-32) - Gonzaga

156. Brett G. #2: 18 (-34) - Gonzaga

157. Brent E. #1: 18 (-38) - Gonzaga

158. Daisy N. #8: 18 (-42) - Iowa

158. Michelle L. #3: 18 (-42) - Illinois

158. Becky H: 18 (-42) - Michigan

161. Paul Kr.: 18 (-44) - Gonzaga

161. Daisy N. #5: 18 (-44) - West Virginia

163. John M. #1: 18 (-46) - Gonzaga

164. Ray M. #1: 18 (-48) - Gonzaga

165. Brett G. #1: 18 (-50) - Gonzaga

166. John M. #3: 18 (-70) - Florida State

167. Daisy N. #7: 18 (-88) - Ohio State

168. Cindy R.: 18 (-132) - Virginia

169. Klei R. #2: 17 (-25) - Illinois

170. Mason A. #1: 17 (-29) - Gonzaga

170. Eric G. #2: 17 (-29) - Illinois

172. Eric S.: 17 (-33) - Baylor

173. Damien R. #1: 17 (-39) - Gonzaga

174. Daisy N. #10: 17 (-47) - Kansas

175. Brad R. #3: 17 (-85) - Ohio State

176. John M. #2: 17 (-131) - Connecticut

177. Tucker D.: 16 (-68) - Alabama

178. Andy M.: 16 (-92) - Connecticut

179. Damien R. #3: 15 (-43) - Gonzaga

180. Nick I.: 15 (-49) - Gonzaga

181. Alyssa N.: 15 (-67) - Gonzaga

…and the net points rankings:

1. James P. (10)

2. Jared B. (6)

2. Klei R. #3 - Jay B. (6)

2. Howard S. #1 (6)

2. Hutch H. #2 (6)

2. Chris T. #2 (6)

2. Scott K. (6)

2. Peter J. #1 (6)

2. Ben W. (6)

10. Jace D. (4)

10. Colston W. (4)

10. Harrell R. #2 (4)

10. Mason A. #2 (4)

10. Chris T. #1 (4)

10. Mark A. #1 (4)

10. Mike Wi. (4)

10. Irene H. #6 (4)

10. Peter J. #5 (4)

19. Brandon B. (2)

19. Jim D. #2 (2)

19. Dianna A. (2)

19. Peter J. #4 (2)

19. Brett G. #3 (2)

19. Marc R. (2)

19. Brain K. #3 (2)

19. Brain K. #2 (2)

27. Dylan B. (0)

27. Jason S. (0)

27. Hutch H. #1 (0)

27. Justin M. (0)

27. Molly R. (0)

32. Karen C. (-2)

32. Roth W. (-2)

32. Andrew D. #2 (-2)

32. Andrew D. #1 (-2)

32. Jim D. #1 (-2)

32. Matt N. (-2)

32. Jay H. #1 (-2)

32. Chris E. (-2)

32. Eric V. (-2)

41. Klei R. - BO (-4)

41. Scott H. #1 (-4)

41. Irene H. #2 (-4)

41. Bret K. #2 (-4)

41. Ray M. #2 (-4)

41. Tyler B. (-4)

41. Shawn M. (-4)

41. William G. #2 (-4)

41. Ally H. (-4)

41. Jim W. (-4)

41. Chun W. #3 (-4)

41. Brent E. #4 (-4)

41. Jonathan J. (-4)

41. Jay H. #2 (-4)

41. Klei R. #1 (-4)

41. Scott H. #2 (-4)

57. Dennis R. #2 (-6)

57. Adam E. #1 (-6)

57. Ann K. (-6)

57. Dan Dz. (-6)

57. Matt M. (-6)

57. Brain K. #1 (-6)

57. Brent E. #3 (-6)

57. Stefon K. (-6)

57. Elliot N. (-6)

57. Brent E. #2 (-6)

67. Jaxon S. (-8)

67. Irene H. #1 (-8)

67. William G. #1 (-8)

67. Tomas L. #2 (-8)

67. Jay H. #3 (-8)

67. Howard S. #2 (-8)

67. Chun W. #2 (-8)

67. Brett G. #4 (-8)

67. Daisy N. #3 (-8)

67. Klei R. #2 (-8)

77. Dennis R. #1 (-10)

77. Craig G. (-10)

77. Hutch H. #3 (-10)

77. Gigi I. (-10)

77. Alex I. (-10)

77. Peter J. #2 (-10)

77. Elizabeth N. #2 (-10)

77. Clifton H. #1 (-10)

77. Klei R. - Seth D. (-10)

77. Kirt R. #2 (-10)

87. Nate R. (-12)

87. Missy W. (-12)

87. Daisy N. #2 (-12)

87. Irene H. #3 (-12)

87. Michelle L. #2 (-12)

87. Mason A. #1 (-12)

87. Eric G. #2 (-12)

94. Jackson I. (-14)

94. Klei R. - WaPo (-14)

94. Valerie D. (-14)

94. Clifton H. #2 (-14)

94. Chun W. #1 (-14)

94. Adam E. #2 (-14)

94. Brett W. (-14)

94. Gary W. (-14)

102. Steve D. (-16)

102. Dustin B. (-16)

102. Brad R. #1 (-16)

102. Michael Wh. (-16)

102. Drew R. (-16)

102. Josh C. (-16)

102. Brandon H. #2 (-16)

102. Brad R. #2 (-16)

102. Daniel E. (-16)

102. Brett G. #2 (-16)

102. Eric S. (-16)

113. Zach V. (-18)

113. Paul W. (-18)

113. Dan C. (-18)

113. Ryan W. (-18)

113. Elizabeth N. #1 (-18)

118. Harrell R. #1 (-20)

118. Harrell R. #3 (-20)

118. Peter J. #3 (-20)

118. Noah N. (-20)

118. Brent E. #1 (-20)

123. Keal B. (-22)

123. JoJo D. (-22)

123. Daisy N. #1 (-22)

123. Damien R. #1 (-22)

127. Rob I. (-24)

127. Tomas L. #1 (-24)

127. Daisy N. #8 (-24)

127. Michelle L. #3 (-24)

127. Becky H (-24)

132. Tina H. (-26)

132. Dave M. (-26)

132. Mike S. (-26)

132. Avery S. (-26)

132. Paul Kr. (-26)

132. Daisy N. #5 (-26)

138. Mike N. (-28)

138. John M. #1 (-28)

138. Damien R. #3 (-28)

141. Alyssa B. (-30)

141. Damien R. #2 (-30)

141. Daisy N. #6 (-30)

141. Ray M. #1 (-30)

141. Daisy N. #10 (-30)

146. Eric G. #1 (-32)

146. Brett G. #1 (-32)

148. Chun W. #4 (-34)

148. Chrissy I. (-34)

148. Brain K. #4 (-34)

148. Juju Suki I. (-34)

148. Michelle L. #1 (-34)

148. Nick I. (-34)

154. Bret K. #1 (-36)

155. Daisy N. #4 (-38)

155. Daniel Du. (-38)

157. Nick V. (-40)

157. Brad R. #4 (-40)

157. Kirt R. #1 (-40)

160. Brandon H. #1 (-42)

161. Mark A. #2 (-46)

162. John M. #3 (-52)

162. Tucker D. (-52)

162. Alyssa N. (-52)

165. Irene H. #5 (-60)

166. John M. #4 (-62)

167. Cicely K. (-64)

167. Amanda R. (-64)

169. Virginia L. (-66)

170. Chad L. (-68)

170. Brad R. #3 (-68)

172. Mike McQ. (-70)

172. Daisy N. #7 (-70)

174. Addie H. (-72)

175. Andy M. (-76)

176. Irene H. #4 (-86)

177. Daisy N. #9 (-92)

177. Owen R. (-92)

179. Damien R. #4 (-106)

180. Cindy R. (-114)

180. John M. #2 (-114)

 For those of you wondering, the entry with my name on and Jay B..  Those picks were ones that I stole from ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas.  I like putting in picks like that because I like to see that they don’t know any more than the rest of us – and they watch basketball for a living.  I also entered a bracket I stole from Seth Davis and one I stole from the Washington Post that they advertised as “The Perfect Bracket”.  So far, Jay B. is doing good.  We are still a long way from finishing this though.  Doing good in the first round is good for bragging rights but means little as we go on.  Think of it this way, if you got all 32 games right that would give you just as many points as picking the overall champion or getting both members of the championship game.  We are only 1/6 through this thing.  There are a lot wilder swings and probably a lot more upsets to get through before we finish.  That is part of the fun.

Looking at the picks, it looks like James P. and Peter J. #5 are in the best position overall to pick up points.  I always think the key to winning this thing is that you can’t have too many losses that cost you in more than one round.  For example, if I had BYU beating UCLA, it sucks that I lost one point for that game, but if I had them losing the next game anyway, I can stop the bleeding a little.  If I had BYU going all the way to the Final 4, I am going to lose points to the field all along.  If that’s the case, you almost are better served pulling the most unlikely outcome in that area.  So, if you just lost Texas going to the Final 4, your best bet is to have Abilene Christian go to the Final 4 because almost no one will pick up points.  Points you weren’t going to get now anyway.  It seems strange, but it is the best strategy.  Anyway, James P. and Peter J. #5 have only lost 2 Sweet 16 and nothing beyond that.  That’s a lot of points they can still win.  It doesn’t mean they will pick those points up, but it means they can, and that’s as good as you can do right now.

On the flip side, Cindy R. has the most red on her bracket.  7 of her Sweet 16 teams are already out.  4 of her Elite 8 teams are gone, 3 of her Final 4 and her final game of Virginia over Tennessee.  That’s just brutal.  Some of those picks were a little bit of a stretch, but the upset gods were especially unkind to Cindy R.  Sorry Cindy R. 

They are going to some kind of weird 1-1-2-2-2 schedule for games tomorrow.  Remember that ever game for the next 2 days is worth 2 points.  Here are the breakdowns for the first 2 games:

Picks for Illinois: 163

Picks for Loyola-Chicago: 9

Other: 9

Vegas Line: Illinois -7.5

Most of the games tomorrow are in this 4-8 point favorite range.  Even the teams that scored decent upsets aren’t big underdogs, which makes a certain degree of sense.  This is the Mike Wilbon special for those of you that watch PTI.  He was complaining at the top of his lungs about unfair this potential match up.  His theory was that they under-seeded Loyola-Chicago (which they did) to set up a matchup against in state rival Illinois.  Maybe they did.  Who knows.  Illinois looked as good as anyone in the first round, but they were playing Drexel.  Loyola-Chicago looked decent against an undermanned Georgia Tech squad.  Seems like a ratings grabber for the Chicagoland area.  Illinois is the clear favorite here, so the Ramblers winning would be a “shock the world” moment.  I’m not saying it can’t happen, I’m just saying it seems unlikely.

Picks for Baylor: 158

Picks for Wisconsin: 13

Other: 10

Vegas Line: Baylor -6.5

Seems like CBS is banking on the #1 seeds to bring in viewers.  That may be a smart idea.  I don’t remember either of these teams sweating in the first round too hard.  That reminds me of a stat I heard on Friday: Wisconsin beating North Carolina marked the first time in Roy Williams career that he lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament.  That’s at last 25 tournaments.  That’s incredible to me.  Roy Williams has won multiple National Championships, and he might be underrated right now.  Anyway, the quote that has been going around in my house since about Christmas is this: “Baylor will always let you down”.  Every year, I watch them play and think, “Wow!  This Baylor team is really good.  I’m going to pick them to do something in the tournament”.  Then I do, and I inevitably get knocked out when they lose.  You’d think I’d learn from that, but I keep coming back to Baylor.  If they lose, it won’t come as a surprise to me – although this is a better Baylor team than in years past.  See, I’m, still getting sucked into their siren song.  Ahhhhh….. 

Good luck everyone!!!!

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