March Madness - End of Day 3

 How many people do you think got all 4 of the Sweet 16 teams right in the South region?  I’ll give you a hint.  It’s the same number of people that got all 4 of the Sweet 16 teams right in the Midwest region.  That answer is no one.  As a matter of fact, today was about as brutal a day as I can remember in the tournament.  The average bracket got 5.3 points today.  Not 5.3 games correct.  5.3 points.  That’s an average of a little over 2 correct picks per entry.  Nobody did better than 5 correct picks (10 points).  The key to today was to not have too many of the teams you had in the Elite 8 or beyond lose.  That was a task that too tough for anyone as I will show you a little later.

Compliments of the Oregon State upset, the Midwest region now looks like a #2, #8, #11 and #12 seeds.  Not only does that mean that no one got all 4 of these right, it also means that only 1 person managed to get as many as 3 (Amanda R.), and the only one she missed was Oregon State.  I’m impressed.  24 people managed to get no points out of this region.  Not to pile on here, but more than half of the pool can no longer get ANY points from this region.  If you manage to get even one more victory in the Midwest region, you are waaaay ahead of the field.  It’s a red as I’ve seen a score sheet in quite some time.  Then again, that’s what I always ask for.  The winner should be rewarded for picking some games right here.

The South bracket is a little more normal-looking in that there is still a #1 and #3 team alive.  A #5 is not a huge stretch to make the Sweet 16, but this particular Villanova team wasn’t all that popular of a Sweet 16 pick. (more people chose Tennessee (57) and Creighton (51) than Villanova (45)).  AS I mentioned earlier, only one person picked Oral Roberts I the Sweet 16.  That means that 17 people wound up with 3/4 in this region.  6 people wound up getting shut out.  Largely compliments of Baylor being alive still, only 26 people are shut out from getting any more points in this region.

Here are the breakdowns:

South	Count
3	17
2	93
1	65
0	6

   

Midwest	Count
3	1
2	19
1	137
0	24

   

Total points won today:

Wins	Count
10	6
8	20
6	76
4	64
2	14
0	1

Congratulations to the 6 people that managed to go 5/8.  It seems strange calling that out as if it’s some great achievement, but today it is.  Those 6 were: Amanda R., Brent E. #2, Brent E. #3, Brent E. #4, Mason A. #2 and Michelle L. #2.  Good times.  I had double check to make sure this was right, but the one person that picked no games right actually picked no games right – and they weren’t crazy picks.  That was Daisy N. #6.

I have something in my scoring spreadsheet that I use to see the health of a bracket, and that is a percentage of total points accounted for.  48 points have been accounted for already because those games are done, but people have lost points already on games in the future because the team they picked to win a game in the future has already lost.  The goal is to keep this number as low as possible.  Ideally, it would be 25% right now (48/192) because that would mean that all available future points are available to you.  Right now, the leaders in this category have 29.17% of the points accounted for (Bret K. #2, Klei R. #1).  What does that mean?  It means for the best looking brackets in terms of points still will not get a minimum of 2 games right tomorrow and is already missing an elite 8 team (so 8 future points).  Everyone else looks worse.  In some cases much worse.  The worst looking bracket right now can only get 6 Sweet 16 teams tomorrow, 2 elite 8 teams after that, and nothing else.  Wow.  As I said, there’s a lot of red out there.

Here are the updated points standings:

1. Mason A. #2: 33 (-83) - Illinois

2. Mark A. #1: 31 (-33) - Baylor

3. Jason S.: 31 (-39) - Gonzaga

4. Jared B.: 31 (-51) - Gonzaga

5. Klei R. #3 - Jay B.: 31 (-55) - Gonzaga

6. Dennis R. #2: 31 (-65) - Michigan

7. Brent E. #3: 31 (-89) - Illinois

8. Jace D.: 31 (-101) - Florida

9. Howard S. #1: 30 (-28) - Baylor

10. Colston W.: 30 (-36) - Michigan

11. Michelle L. #2: 30 (-38) - Houston

11. Missy W.: 30 (-38) - Baylor

11. Brent E. #4: 30 (-38) - Baylor

14. Karen C.: 30 (-44) - Gonzaga

15. Harrell R. #1: 30 (-48) - Gonzaga

16. Irene H. #3: 30 (-52) - Baylor

17. Brent E. #2: 30 (-56) - Michigan

18. Jaxon S.: 30 (-64) - Gonzaga

19. Amanda R.: 30 (-90) - Ohio State

20. Scott K.: 29 (-33) - Baylor

21. Irene H. #6: 29 (-37) - Michigan

21. Dianna A.: 29 (-37) - Arkansas

21. Jim D. #2: 29 (-37) - Gonzaga

21. Chris E.: 29 (-37) - Iowa

25. William G. #1: 29 (-43) - Baylor

26. Peter J. #1: 29 (-55) - Gonzaga

27. Jim D. #1: 29 (-59) - Gonzaga

28. Keal B.: 29 (-61) - Michigan

28. Peter J. #3: 29 (-61) - Michigan

30. James P.: 29 (-85) - Illinois

31. Adam E. #1: 29 (-99) - Oklahoma State

32. Dennis R. #1: 29 (-103) - Illinois

32. Cicely K.: 29 (-103) - Ohio State

34. Chad L.: 29 (-107) - Ohio State

35. Owen R.: 29 (-119) - UC Santa Barbara

36. Irene H. #4: 29 (-131) - Texas

37. Roth W.: 28 (-30) - Baylor

37. Harrell R. #2: 28 (-30) - Iowa

39. Mike Wi.: 28 (-34) - Iowa

39. Scott H. #1: 28 (-34) - Gonzaga

41. Hutch H. #2: 28 (-38) - Baylor

42. Brandon H. #2: 28 (-44) - Houston

43. Justin M.: 28 (-46) - Gonzaga

44. Ben W.: 28 (-50) - Gonzaga

45. Daisy N. #2: 28 (-56) - Gonzaga

46. Hutch H. #1: 28 (-60) - Gonzaga

47. Brad R. #4: 28 (-66) - Michigan

48. Valerie D.: 28 (-68) - Gonzaga

49. Tina H.: 28 (-70) - Michigan

50. Alyssa B.: 28 (-74) - Gonzaga

51. Brett G. #3: 28 (-88) - Illinois

51. Brandon B.: 28 (-88) - Illinois

53. John M. #4: 28 (-92) - Georgetown

54. Irene H. #1: 28 (-96) - Illinois

54. Dylan B.: 28 (-96) - Illinois

56. Zach V.: 28 (-102) - Illinois

57. Bret K. #2: 27 (-29) - Baylor

58. Brian K. #1: 27 (-31) - Alabama

59. Matt M.: 27 (-33) - Gonzaga

60. Molly R.: 27 (-35) - Michigan

61. Jay H. #2: 27 (-39) - Baylor

62. Matt N.: 27 (-41) - Baylor

62. Chris T. #1: 27 (-41) - Gonzaga

64. Clifton H. #2: 27 (-43) - Gonzaga

64. Paul W.: 27 (-43) - Houston

66. Peter J. #4: 27 (-45) - Baylor

66. Tomas L. #2: 27 (-45) - Baylor

68. Ray M. #2: 27 (-47) - Kansas

69. Jackson I.: 27 (-57) - Baylor

69. Craig G.: 27 (-57) - Baylor

71. Tyler B.: 27 (-61) - Michigan

72. Mike N.: 27 (-67) - Gonzaga

73. Gigi I.: 27 (-69) - Gonzaga

73. Brian K. #4: 27 (-69) - Florida State

75. Nate R.: 27 (-71) - Gonzaga

75. Rob I.: 27 (-71) - Gonzaga

77. Hutch H. #3: 27 (-73) - Kansas

78. Chun W. #4: 27 (-85) - Alabama

79. Chris T. #2: 27 (-87) - Illinois

80. Elizabeth N. #2: 27 (-95) - Illinois

81. Chun W. #1: 27 (-99) - Illinois

82. Peter J. #2: 27 (-101) - Illinois

83. Daniel E.: 27 (-105) - Illinois

84. Ally H.: 26 (-32) - Gonzaga

85. Chun W. #2: 26 (-42) - Gonzaga

85. Stefon K.: 26 (-42) - Gonzaga

87. Paul Kr.: 26 (-46) - Gonzaga

88. Jonathan J.: 26 (-48) - Gonzaga

89. Eric V.: 26 (-54) - Gonzaga

90. Brian K. #3: 26 (-56) - Gonzaga

91. Eric G. #1: 26 (-58) - Gonzaga

92. Klei R. - BO: 26 (-60) - Gonzaga

92. John M. #1: 26 (-60) - Gonzaga

94. Kirt R. #1: 26 (-62) - Gonzaga

94. Chun W. #3: 26 (-62) - Iowa

96. Marc R.: 26 (-68) - Gonzaga

96. Harrell R. #3: 26 (-68) - Michigan

96. Brent E. #1: 26 (-68) - Gonzaga

99. Dan C.: 26 (-70) - Gonzaga

100. Brandon H. #1: 26 (-74) - Gonzaga

100. Tomas L. #1: 26 (-74) - Baylor

102. Brian K. #2: 26 (-88) - Oklahoma State

103. Elliot N.: 26 (-96) - Illinois

103. Ann K.: 26 (-96) - Illinois

103. Dan Dz.: 26 (-96) - Illinois

106. Addie H.: 26 (-102) - Ohio State

107. Klei R. - WaPo: 26 (-104) - Illinois

108. Dustin B.: 26 (-106) - Illinois

109. Mike S.: 26 (-114) - Illinois

110. Steve D.: 26 (-116) - Illinois

111. Daisy N. #9: 26 (-130) - Texas

112. Klei R. #1: 25 (-31) - Gonzaga

113. Irene H. #2: 25 (-35) - Gonzaga

114. Howard S. #2: 25 (-41) - Houston

115. Brett G. #4: 25 (-43) - Baylor

115. Brad R. #2: 25 (-43) - Gonzaga

115. Andrew D. #1: 25 (-43) - Baylor

118. Elizabeth N. #1: 25 (-45) - Gonzaga

119. Kirt R. #2: 25 (-51) - Gonzaga

120. Jay H. #3: 25 (-57) - Kansas

121. Jay H. #1: 25 (-61) - Gonzaga

122. Alex I.: 25 (-65) - Gonzaga

123. Brett W.: 25 (-67) - Gonzaga

124. Bret K. #1: 25 (-77) - Gonzaga

125. Nick V.: 25 (-79) - Gonzaga

126. Daisy N. #4: 25 (-81) - Gonzaga

127. Andrew D. #2: 25 (-91) - Illinois

128. Virginia L.: 25 (-99) - Texas

129. Michael Wh.: 25 (-101) - Illinois

129. Irene H. #5: 25 (-101) - Ohio State

129. Shawn M.: 25 (-101) - Illinois

132. Brad R. #1: 25 (-107) - Illinois

133. William G. #2: 25 (-109) - Illinois

134. Dave M.: 25 (-113) - Illinois

135. Brett G. #2: 24 (-50) - Gonzaga

136. Scott H. #2: 24 (-58) - Gonzaga

137. Gary W.: 24 (-64) - Gonzaga

137. Klei R. - Seth D.: 24 (-64) - Gonzaga

137. Clifton H. #1: 24 (-64) - Michigan

140. Daisy N. #1: 24 (-76) - Gonzaga

141. John M. #3: 24 (-80) - Florida State

142. Chrissy I.: 24 (-82) - Gonzaga

143. Jim W.: 24 (-90) - Illinois

143. Drew R.: 24 (-90) - Gonzaga

145. Peter J. #5: 24 (-92) - Oklahoma State

146. Adam E. #2: 24 (-106) - Illinois

147. JoJo D.: 24 (-110) - Oklahoma State

148. Damien R. #2: 24 (-124) - Illinois

149. Damien R. #4: 24 (-134) - Ohio State

150. Mason A. #1: 23 (-39) - Gonzaga

151. Michelle L. #1: 23 (-69) - Gonzaga

151. Damien R. #1: 23 (-69) - Gonzaga

153. Daniel Du.: 23 (-73) - Oregon

154. Avery S.: 23 (-79) - Gonzaga

155. Mark A. #2: 23 (-81) - Michigan

156. Klei R. #2: 23 (-89) - Illinois

157. Eric G. #2: 23 (-93) - Illinois

158. Brad R. #3: 23 (-99) - Ohio State

159. Noah N.: 23 (-105) - Illinois

160. Mike McQ.: 23 (-107) - Texas

161. Juju Suki I.: 23 (-119) - Oklahoma State

162. Josh C.: 22 (-52) - Baylor

163. Becky H: 22 (-76) - Michigan

164. Brett G. #1: 22 (-82) - Gonzaga

165. Ray M. #1: 22 (-84) - Gonzaga

166. Andy M.: 22 (-100) - Connecticut

167. Michelle L. #3: 22 (-106) - Illinois

168. Ryan W.: 22 (-108) - Illinois

169. Eric S.: 21 (-55) - Baylor

170. Damien R. #3: 21 (-81) - Gonzaga

171. Daisy N. #3: 20 (-50) - Baylor

172. Tucker D.: 20 (-72) - Alabama

173. Daisy N. #8: 20 (-76) - Iowa

174. Daisy N. #7: 20 (-112) - Ohio State

174. Daisy N. #5: 20 (-112) - West Virginia

176. Cindy R.: 20 (-152) - Virginia

177. Daisy N. #10: 19 (-65) - Kansas

178. Alyssa N.: 19 (-97) - Gonzaga

179. Daisy N. #6: 19 (-125) - Illinois

180. John M. #2: 19 (-147) - Connecticut

181. Nick I.: 17 (-57) - Gonzaga

 …and the net points standings:

1. Howard S. #1 (2)

2. Mark A. #1 (-2)

2. Roth W. (-2)

2. Harrell R. #2 (-2)

2. Bret K. #2 (-2)

6. Scott K. (-4)

6. Brian K. #1 (-4)

8. Colston W. (-6)

8. Mike Wi. (-6)

8. Scott H. #1 (-6)

8. Matt M. (-6)

8. Ally H. (-6)

8. Klei R. #1 (-6)

14. Jason S. (-8)

14. Michelle L. #2 (-8)

14. Missy W. (-8)

14. Brent E. #4 (-8)

14. Irene H. #6 (-8)

14. Dianna A. (-8)

14. Jim D. #2 (-8)

14. Chris E. (-8)

14. Molly R. (-8)

23. Hutch H. #2 (-10)

23. Irene H. #2 (-10)

25. Jay H. #2 (-12)

26. Karen C. (-14)

26. William G. #1 (-14)

26. Matt N. (-14)

26. Chris T. #1 (-14)

30. Brandon H. #2 (-16)

30. Clifton H. #2 (-16)

30. Paul W. (-16)

30. Chun W. #2 (-16)

30. Stefon K. (-16)

30. Howard S. #2 (-16)

30. Mason A. #1 (-16)

37. Harrell R. #1 (-18)

37. Justin M. (-18)

37. Peter J. #4 (-18)

37. Tomas L. #2 (-18)

37. Brett G. #4 (-18)

37. Brad R. #2 (-18)

37. Andrew D. #1 (-18)

44. Jared B. (-20)

44. Ray M. #2 (-20)

44. Paul Kr. (-20)

44. Elizabeth N. #1 (-20)

48. Irene H. #3 (-22)

48. Ben W. (-22)

48. Jonathan J. (-22)

51. Klei R. #3 - Jay B. (-24)

52. Brent E. #2 (-26)

52. Peter J. #1 (-26)

52. Kirt R. #2 (-26)

52. Brett G. #2 (-26)

56. Daisy N. #2 (-28)

56. Eric V. (-28)

58. Jim D. #1 (-30)

58. Jackson I. (-30)

58. Craig G. (-30)

58. Brian K. #3 (-30)

58. Josh C. (-30)

58. Daisy N. #3 (-30)

64. Keal B. (-32)

64. Peter J. #3 (-32)

64. Hutch H. #1 (-32)

64. Eric G. #1 (-32)

64. Jay H. #3 (-32)

69. Dennis R. #2 (-34)

69. Jaxon S. (-34)

69. Tyler B. (-34)

69. Klei R. - BO (-34)

69. John M. #1 (-34)

69. Scott H. #2 (-34)

69. Eric S. (-34)

76. Kirt R. #1 (-36)

76. Chun W. #3 (-36)

76. Jay H. #1 (-36)

79. Brad R. #4 (-38)

80. Valerie D. (-40)

80. Mike N. (-40)

80. Alex I. (-40)

80. Gary W. (-40)

80. Klei R. - Seth D. (-40)

80. Clifton H. #1 (-40)

80. Nick I. (-40)

87. Tina H. (-42)

87. Gigi I. (-42)

87. Brian K. #4 (-42)

87. Marc R. (-42)

87. Harrell R. #3 (-42)

87. Brent E. #1 (-42)

87. Brett W. (-42)

94. Nate R. (-44)

94. Rob I. (-44)

94. Dan C. (-44)

97. Alyssa B. (-46)

97. Hutch H. #3 (-46)

97. Michelle L. #1 (-46)

97. Damien R. #1 (-46)

97. Daisy N. #10 (-46)

102. Brandon H. #1 (-48)

102. Tomas L. #1 (-48)

104. Mason A. #2 (-50)

104. Daniel Du. (-50)

106. Bret K. #1 (-52)

106. Daisy N. #1 (-52)

106. Tucker D. (-52)

109. Nick V. (-54)

109. Becky H (-54)

111. James P. (-56)

111. Daisy N. #4 (-56)

111. John M. #3 (-56)

111. Avery S. (-56)

111. Daisy N. #8 (-56)

116. Brent E. #3 (-58)

116. Chun W. #4 (-58)

116. Chrissy I. (-58)

116. Mark A. #2 (-58)

120. Amanda R. (-60)

120. Brett G. #3 (-60)

120. Brandon B. (-60)

120. Chris T. #2 (-60)

120. Brett G. #1 (-60)

120. Damien R. #3 (-60)

126. Brian K. #2 (-62)

126. Ray M. #1 (-62)

128. John M. #4 (-64)

129. Andrew D. #2 (-66)

129. Jim W. (-66)

129. Drew R. (-66)

129. Klei R. #2 (-66)

133. Irene H. #1 (-68)

133. Dylan B. (-68)

133. Elizabeth N. #2 (-68)

133. Peter J. #5 (-68)

137. Jace D. (-70)

137. Adam E. #1 (-70)

137. Elliot N. (-70)

137. Ann K. (-70)

137. Dan Dz. (-70)

137. Eric G. #2 (-70)

143. Chun W. #1 (-72)

144. Dennis R. #1 (-74)

144. Cicely K. (-74)

144. Zach V. (-74)

144. Peter J. #2 (-74)

144. Virginia L. (-74)

149. Addie H. (-76)

149. Michael Wh. (-76)

149. Irene H. #5 (-76)

149. Shawn M. (-76)

149. Brad R. #3 (-76)

154. Chad L. (-78)

154. Daniel E. (-78)

154. Klei R. - WaPo (-78)

154. Andy M. (-78)

154. Alyssa N. (-78)

159. Dustin B. (-80)

160. Brad R. #1 (-82)

160. Adam E. #2 (-82)

160. Noah N. (-82)

163. William G. #2 (-84)

163. Mike McQ. (-84)

163. Michelle L. #3 (-84)

166. JoJo D. (-86)

166. Ryan W. (-86)

168. Mike S. (-88)

168. Dave M. (-88)

170. Owen R. (-90)

170. Steve D. (-90)

172. Daisy N. #7 (-92)

172. Daisy N. #5 (-92)

174. Juju Suki I. (-96)

175. Damien R. #2 (-100)

176. Irene H. #4 (-102)

177. Daisy N. #9 (-104)

178. Daisy N. #6 (-106)

179. Damien R. #4 (-110)

180. John M. #2 (-128)

181. Cindy R. (-132)

 Again, take that total points ranking with a grain of salt.  Mason A. #2 has done great so far, but I have a feeling that losing Illinois as a National Champion is going to bring this bracket back to the field a little bit.

Tomorrow is the same format as today.  1-1-2-2-2.  I kind of like that format.  I was able to watch some of most of the games, with the exception of the Villanova / North Texas game, which seemed like the worst game to watch anyway.  Let’s hope tomorrow is as interesting as today was.

Picks for Iowa: 137

Picks for Oregon: 38

Other picks: 6

Vegas Line: Iowa -5

Here we go.  This is a good start to the day.  A game that almost everybody can get something from.  Only 6 people are going to lose points to the field no matter what, so there’s a reason to watch, although I suspect that most of you will probably not watch because you are going back to work.  Not to worry, I will be at home watching all of these games, my work email blissfully off.  This is Oregon’s first game of the tournament compliments of COVID.  I’m not sure how that gets scored in the official record, but in this pool it means people that picked Oregon got 1 point.  This will be a real test of conference strength.  The Big 10 is down to 3 teams from it’s original 9 in the tournament, and some of them have been monumental losses.  The Pac 12 on the other hand, has yet to lose a game.  Given that pattern, one would think Oregon can pull an upset here.  Actually, based on the tournament in general, one would think that also.  Again I’m torn between the team I picked to win and the chaos I want to see in the bracket.  I’ll talk myself into liking the winner, whoever it is.

Picks for Gonzaga: 176

Picks for Oklahoma: 4

Other picks: 1

Vegas Line: Gonzaga -14.5

This is the biggest line of the second round, and Oklahoma isn’t a terrible team.  They were ranked at times during the season.  This just shows how dominant Gonzaga is.  I’m guessing that CBS wanted to showcase them, and that’s why they get the solo game time slot.  That’s probably fair.  A lot of people haven’t seen Gonzaga this year, and they are really good.  I suspect they will win this game, and everyone can feel better about getting some points.

One last thing: As most of you know, after the Sweet 16 is established, I kind of ditch the points rankings and switch over to the “probabilities of winning” and “mathematically eliminated” designations.  In order to do that, I made a spreadsheet that I use to keep score and calculate all the odds.  It is here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Rc1G_ijbhT7A8JY9UgJ2iVj96gL1H4YN/view?usp=sharing

Make sure I have your picks correct because I will have to recalculate everything if it turns out I transcribed something wrong.  I saved everyone’s entry, so if you see something wrong, let me know and I’ll check what was originally sent.  If it looks like I screwed up, I’ll change it.  If you don’t tell me anything by the end of games tomorrow, I will assume everything I have is right and not allow any changes of any kind no matter how much you scream about how “unfair” it is.  If you want to do that, find another pool.  Thanks and good luck to everyone tomorrow!