March Madness 2021 - First 4 games

 Welcome everyone to the 2021 March Madness pool!!!  So far this year we have 181 entries, which is fewer than the most I’ve ever had, but, as my wife likes to tell me, more than last year.  This year has already been a strange one for a whole bunch of reasons – but they all boil down to one reason, COVID.  As most of you have already figured out, the tournament dates are jumbled up, there are really few fans in the arenas, all the arenas are in one area, everyone is wearing masks, etc.  Despite all that, if you are watching on TV, it sometimes looks like a regular tournament game.  One thing I think I will miss from not having fans in the arenas is that moment when the crowd realizes that a lower-seeded team might pull off the upset of the higher-seeded team.  It’s then that all the people that were there to watch other teams instantly become fans of the lower-seeded teams.  I’m sure there were a ton of UMBC converts when they beat Virginia a few years ago.  For some reason, I’m always reminded of Weber State and Harold “The Show” Arceneaux who beat North Carolina in 1999 when I think of an underdog winning over a crowd.  That reference makes me feel really old.  I’m guessing most of you don’t remember that guy.  He was a two-game version of Linsanity on the college level.  I hope we get something like that this year.  I hope we get that every year.  It’s fantastic.

OK, on to the games.  There are 4 in the early rounds.  The schedulers were especially nice to me this year – at least to start.  If I had to rank the games I care about from most to least, I think this opening game would be right near the bottom:

Florida / Virginia Tech:

Picks for Florida: 74

Picks for Virginia Tech: 107

Vegas Line: Florida -1

Hmmm…  It’s the first game and we already have our first upset alert – at least based on the pick distribution.  People are more enthusiastic about Virginia Tech to win this game than Florida.  Oddly, the people that like Virginia Tech love only extends one round.  11 people have Florida going to the Sweet 16 vs only 7 for Virginia Tech.  2 people have Florida in the Final 4.  No one has Virginia Tech further out than the Elite 8.  One person (Jace D.) has Florida winning it all, so this one is super important for him.  Still, for most of us, this is one point out of 192.

Arkansas / Colgate:

Picks for Arkansas: 161

Picks for Colgate: 20

Vegas Line: Arkansas -9

Damn you, NCAA bracketologists!!!!  You may not know this about me, but every day during the college basketball season, I update a spreadsheet with all the games being played, their point spreads and final scores.  Being that close to the data lets me see some trends a little easier.  Prior to the brackets being announced, I was pretty convinced I was going to take Arkansas and Colgate to both go further than whatever seed they were going to get.  Then, the NCAA puts them up against each other in the first round.  That stinks for me.  Now I’ve got to choose between two teams I really like.  It’s like the bizarro-Florida/Virginia Tech game.

I think my favorite stat of the season so far that I read in getting ready for this is this:  Colgate has only played 5 teams all season.  If you take out the 2 games thy played in their conference tournament, they played a grand total of 3 teams during the regular season.  That is all COVID-driven.  They played Holy Cross 4 times.  They played Boston University 5 times and Army 4 times.  That’s it.  That was the regular season.  No non-conference games.  No one has any idea how good Colgate is.  The NET ratings that the NCAA partially uses had them in the top 10.  It’s crazy.  I’m really looking forward to this game.  I have Arkansas at 60-1 to win the whole tournament, so I’m going to be happy whoever wins.

Picks for Illinois: 179

Picks for Drexel: 2

Vegas Line: Illinois -22.5

I was tempted to wear my Drexel t-shirt this morning, but this isn’t even the biggest point spread of the morning session (more on that later).  I really like the Drexel t-shirt I have.  It has a Dragon on it.  Dragons are cool as a mascot.  Illinois is really a popular pick this season.  Not for this game.  Everyone is picking Illinois in this game.  This is the first chance we will get to see a National Championship favorite.  I’ll get more into this later, but there is a real consensus opinion of how this tournament will go.  I’m convinced that that wisdom is wrong, because tournaments almost never go the way people think they will go.  Regardless, this is probably the game people will not watch as they flip around.  Unless Drexel can shock the world.  I would love that…..

Picks for Texas Tech: 120

Picks for Utah State: 61

Vegas Line: Texas Tech -5

This was an easy one for me.  As I mentioned above, I track all the teams through the season.  I thought Texas Tech was overrated all season.  On the flip side, I thought Utah State was underrated all season.  Mix them together and voila!  Upset special for me.  I was glad to see Utah State make the tournament, and not just as a play-in team.  They beat San Diego State once this year, so I know they are pretty good.  For those that remember, Texas Tech is the defending Championship Runner-Up.  Remember that?  It seems like 10,000 years ago.  Anyway, I’m hoping for an upset here.

So, I’ll have more on scoring and more picks later.  For now, I am going to watch a little of the Florida / Virginia Tech game and bide my time until the Arkansas / Colgate game starts.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!