Probabilities for 1st

Well, it’s done.  After so many years of doing this, I’ve got the programs pretty fine tuned, so they didn’t take too much time to put together.  I have the initial probabilities for winning the pool, and maybe more importantly, who is out of the running to win.

Remember, this is just to win.  I’ll have probabilities for getting 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th later.  This is only for getting 1^st place.  If you are eliminated here, you could still win one of the other spots, and those pay out pretty well also.

Another thing to note is that this assumes every game is a coin flip, which we know it is not.  I am hoping that later, I can generate a odds-weighted probability for each entry, to give a more reliable prediction, but for now, every game is 50/50.

What that usually means is that people that have some wacky stuff wind up at the top of the standings.  For example, if you picked Texas or Iowa to win the whole thing, you are probably pretty high in the standings because there are a ton of different scenarios that end with that, and in each of them, you probably win the pool.  A more practical example is the person currently in 1^st place in percent chance to win the pool, Steve Mucc. #5.  He is currently sitting in 135^th place in points, so you can be forgiven for not seeing his entry.  But, he has a Final 4 of Duke, Illinois, Alabama and Wisconsin.  In the Finals, he has Alabama over Illinois.  Not many people have that, so he wins in a lot of scenarios where anything close to this happens.  That’s why he’s currently #1.

On the flip side, the Gutless bracket, which is picked only by the seeds is 138^th in probability of winning despite theoretically having the most likely outcome from here on out.  That is because it loses to a lot of other similar brackets that may already be ahead of it in the standings.

I send out a matrix with the probabilities in it.  If you are knocked out, I add in the team that lost that knocked you out of that position.  All the ones that are already knocked out will say “Initial”.  More on this later.

So, here are the people that no longer have a path to 1^st place:

Adam Yankee

Ally Her. #1

Aloysius #1

Aloysius #2

Amber Dolly

Andrew D. #1

Andrew D. #4

April Kohn.

Barack O.

Ben Sil. #1

Ben Sil. #2

Bill Pr. #2

Brandon Br. #1

Brent E. #3

Brent E. #5

Brent E. #6

Brent Sw. #1

CAAT #1

CAAT #4

CAAT #5

Colston

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Damien R. #3

Daniel Ell.

Dave Sr.

DAZE 5

DAZE 9

Derek H

egavala1

egavala2

Elizabeth N. #3

Ella D.

Elliot N.

Ely A. #1

Eric D.

Erin Mucc.

Faye Niem.

Gary

Gigi I.

Harrell Rob. #2

Harrell Rob. #4

Hutch H. #1

Hutch H. #2

Irene 1

Irene 4

Irene 6

Jace D.

Jackson I. Freak

Jacob Able Upsets

Jay Hum. #1

Jay Hum. #2

Jeff Wr.

Jim W

Jo D.

Josh Ch. #1

Josh Ch. #2

Karen Chao #1

Karen Chao #2

Ken Pom

Kirt R. #2

Klei R - Baysian

Kylee Tru

Lizard

Luis B. #4

Luis B. #5

Marc R. #1

Mark Sp. #1

Matt Hoag.

Max70 #2

Michelle L. #2

Michelle L. #4

Mike Barata

Missy Wyt. 1

Patrick McC. #1

Patrick McC. #3

Paul Kr.

Pete J. #2

Pete J. #6

Reid D.

Rob I. #2

Roth W.

Scott Her. #1

Scott Her. #2

Seth Davis

Shanky G.

Shawn D.

Stan Ch.

Steve Dziub. #1

Steve Dziub. #2

Szecho L. #2

Szecho L. #3

Tim N.

Tucker D.

Valerie D.

Wayne Der. #2

Wayne Der. #3

And here are the initial probabilities:

1.:Steve Mucc #5 (6.4134%)

2.:Brent E. #7 (6.1828%)

3.:Brian Kerb. (4.9761%)

4.:Andrew Simm. (3.8436%)

5.:Brent E. #2 (3.778%)

6.:Don’t Coog It (3.7335%)

7.:Josiah Tru (3.5415%)

8.:Howard S. #1 (3.4385%)

9.:Finn D. (2.9774%)

10.:Addie H (2.7196%)

11.:Got Cluffed (2.451%)

12.:Mitchell Slu. (2.1301%)

13.:Brandon H (1.9388%)

14.:Steve Mucc #4 (1.9302%)

15.:Pete J. #4 (1.651%)

16.:Jacob Able (1.5441%)

16.:Matt H. (1.5441%)

18.:Scott Kohn. #2 (1.4523%)

19.:Irene 8 (1.4485%)

20.:Dani A. #1 (1.431%)

21.:DAZE 6 (1.1718%)

22.:Becky Her. #1 (1.1601%)

23.:DAZE 4 (1.062%)

24.:Andy Mil. (1.0498%)

25.:DAZE 7 (1.0223%)

26.:Max70 #1 (1.0009%)

27.:Steve Mucc #6 (0.949%)

28.:Irene 7 (0.9134%)

29.:Dianna Alv. (0.8878%)

30.:Bryce Sel. (0.8435%)

31.:Jim Del. (0.8361%)

32.:Brent E. #9 (0.8066%)

33.:Mike Lu #5 (0.7914%)

34.:Billy Egn. (0.7731%)

35.:DAZE 2 (0.7614%)

36.:Shaun Turn. (0.7324%)

37.:Beau H (0.7286%)

38.:Chris Min. (0.7232%)

39.:Ray Min. (0.7019%)

40.:Mark Sp. #2 (0.6782%)

41.:Irene 2 (0.6553%)

42.:Luis B. #3 (0.6383%)

43.:Pete J. #1 (0.6373%)

44.:Pete J. #3 (0.6286%)

45.:Jared Bock (0.6225%)

46.:Rock Chalk Not Jayhawk (0.6205%)

47.:Marlee Talb. (0.6108%)

48.:Scott Kohn. #1 (0.6042%)

49.:Tina H (0.5859%)

50.:Harrell Rob. #3 (0.5808%)

51.:Eric V. (0.5788%)

52.:Andrew D. #2 (0.5625%)

53.:Brent E. #1 (0.5584%)

54.:Sarah Chao (0.5564%)

55.:Muccmars-2 (0.5538%)

56.:Ally Her. #2 (0.5432%)

57.:DAZE 3 (0.5137%)

58.:Wayne Der. #1 (0.5126%)

59.:Chris Elm. (0.4956%)

60.:LinVinSanity #2 (0.4882%)

61.:Muccmars 1 (0.476%)

62.:Stefon K. (0.4435%)

63.:Jay Bilas (0.4081%)

63.:Leuder 2 (0.4081%)

63.:Mike Lu #3 (0.4081%)

63.:Pete J. #5 (0.4081%)

67.:Mike Lu #1 (0.3997%)

68.:Mason A. #1 (0.3753%)

69.:Mike Wiech. (0.3453%)

70.:Luis B. #6 (0.3245%)

71.:Zach V. (0.2985%)

72.:Brent E. #8 (0.2764%)

73.:Michelle L. #3 (0.2649%)

74.:Brent E. #4 (0.2527%)

75.:Mike Niem. (0.2482%)

76.:Missy Wyt. 2 (0.2466%)

77.:Paul W. (0.2288%)

78.:Brandon Br. #2 (0.2227%)

79.:Dani A. #2 (0.2156%)

80.:Rich Fron. (0.1968%)

81.:CAAT #3 (0.1953%)

81.:Ryan Wiech. (0.1953%)

83.:Chrissy S. (0.1815%)

84.:Tyler Chr. (0.1744%)

85.:DAZE 8 (0.1714%)

86.:Patrick McC. #4 (0.1698%)

87.:Matt Meis. (0.1653%)

88.:Irene 5 (0.148%)

89.:Howard S. #2 (0.1464%)

90.:Craig Gerul. (0.1444%)

91.:Charlotte Niem. (0.1434%)

91.:Mike Lu #4 (0.1434%)

93.:CAAT #2 (0.1413%)

94.:Tim Talb. (0.1373%)

95.:Elizabeth N. #2 (0.1337%)

96.:Patrick McC. #2 (0.1312%)

97.:Jordan Hu. (0.1296%)

97.:Michelle L. #5 (0.1296%)

99.:Becky Her. #2 (0.1281%)

99.:Rob I. #1 (0.1281%)

101.:Irene 3 (0.1251%)

102.:Szecho L. #1 (0.122%)

103.:Leuder 1 (0.121%)

104.:Mason A. #2 (0.1001%)

105.:Klei R. #2 (0.092%)

106.:Dan Dziub. (0.0854%)

107.:Jackson I. (0.0803%)

108.:Jason St. #1 (0.0783%)

109.:LinVinSanity #1 (0.0778%)

110.:Steve Mucc #3 (0.0762%)

111.:Harrell Rob. #1 (0.0732%)

112.:Tim Dziub. #2 (0.0661%)

113.:Chris T. (0.0656%)

113.:Church On Time (0.0656%)

115.:Jason St. #2 (0.064%)

116.:Noah N. (0.0623%)

117.:Bill Pr. #1 (0.061%)

117.:Cicely Kohn. (0.061%)

117.:Kirt R. #1 (0.061%)

120.:Michelle L. #1 (0.0579%)

121.:Brandon Br. #3 (0.0574%)

122.:Fly Eagles Fly (0.0518%)

123.:Jaxon S. (0.0493%)

124.:Wayne Der. #4 (0.0442%)

125.:Andrew D. #3 (0.0427%)

126.:Luis B. #2 (0.0396%)

127.:Jacob Able Chalk (0.0376%)

128.:Brad Rich. (0.0274%)

128.:Scarlett H (0.0274%)

130.:Marc R. #2 (0.0259%)

131.:Brent Sw. #2 (0.0244%)

131.:COOL GUY (0.0244%)

133.:Luis B. #1 (0.0213%)

133.:Tim Dziub. #1 (0.0213%)

135.:Matt Niem. (0.0198%)

136.:Elizabeth N. #1 (0.0152%)

137.:DAZE 1 (0.0137%)

138.:Gutless Bracket (0.0132%)

139.:Leuder 3 (0.0122%)

139.:Leuder 4 (0.0122%)

139.:Mary Lou H (0.0122%)

142.:Dawn Tru (0.0091%)

143.:Steve Mucc #7 (0.0086%)

144.:Bret Torvik (0.0081%)

145.:Klei R. #1 (0.0076%)

146.:Dylan Bow. (0.0061%)

146.:Leighton Niem. (0.0061%)

146.:Mike Lu #2 (0.0061%)

I’ll try to get 2nd, 3^rd and 4^th out tomorrow and have the first round of eliminations either Tuesday or Wednesday.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!!