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I’ve got at least 1st place figured out. I wanted to get this done last night, but I accidentally put Oregon in where Arizona should have been and had to start over from scratch tonight. It all looks correct now however.
It appears as though we will have a new champion this year,
since my “Off Eff” picks that won last year are already official out. Also happy to say that my Gutless bracket
that only went by the seeds is already mathematically eliminated from 1st
(though probably alive for other payouts).
Sadly, here are the people that are already out for 1st
place:
|
Alex I. - St.
John's |
|
Amber Dolly -
North Carolina |
|
Andrew D. #1 - St.
John's |
|
Andrew D. #2 -
Duke |
|
Andrew D. #5 - St.
John's |
|
Andrew S. -
Florida |
|
Andrew Spr - Duke |
|
Billy E. - Florida |
|
Brandie H. - Duke |
|
Brandon B. #3 -
St. John's |
|
Brandon H. #2 -
Connecticut |
|
Brayden R. -
Florida |
|
Brent E. #2 -
Florida |
|
Brent Sw. - Duke |
|
Bryan K. - Duke |
|
Bryce S. -
Tennessee |
|
CAAT #3 - Duke |
|
Carl B. - Duke |
|
Carolyn - Florida |
|
Chris L. #3 - Duke |
|
Chris L. #4 - Duke |
|
Cicely Koh -
Auburn |
|
Daisy N. #2 -
Tennessee |
|
Daisy N. #4 -
Florida |
|
Daisy N. #5 -
Tennessee |
|
Daisy N. #8 - Michigan
State |
|
Damien R. #2 -
Houston |
|
Dan Dz. - St.
John's |
|
Daniel E. - Duke |
|
Danielle A. #1 -
Auburn |
|
Danielle A. #2 -
Florida |
|
Def Eff - St.
John's |
|
Dianna A. -
Mississippi State |
|
Dirk F. - Alabama |
|
Doobie1 - Auburn |
|
Doug H. - Duke |
|
Elizabeth N. #3 -
Florida |
|
Eric V. - Florida |
|
Erica H. - Houston |
|
Faye N. - Duke |
|
Flagg Day - Duke |
|
Gary W. - Florida |
|
Gigi I. - St.
John's |
|
Harrell #1 -
Florida |
|
Harrell #3 -
Tennessee |
|
Harrell #4 - VCU |
|
Harrell #5 - UC
San Diego |
|
Harrell #6 - Missouri |
|
Irene H. #1 -
Florida |
|
Irene H. #2 -
Houston |
|
Irene H. #4 -
Auburn |
|
Irene H. #7 - St.
John's |
|
Irene H. #9 - Duke |
|
Jace D. - Florida |
|
Jacob A. #1 -
Kansas |
|
Jaxon S. - Duke |
|
Jim W. - Duke |
|
Jo Jo D. - Duke |
|
John Lea - Alabama |
|
John Mack #2 -
Florida |
|
Karen C. - Duke |
|
Kiah H. - Michigan
State |
|
Klei R CR - Auburn |
|
Klei R US - Duke |
|
Klei R. #1 - Duke |
|
Klei R. #2 - Upset
Special - St. John's |
|
Kyle V. - Auburn |
|
Laura Muc - St.
Mary's |
|
Lucid Dreams -
Duke |
|
Luis B. #4 -
Houston |
|
Mark Bar - St.
John's |
|
Mark Sp #1 - Duke |
|
Mark Sp #2 -
Houston |
|
Marshmallow - UCLA |
|
Matt H. - Duke |
|
Matt Mei - Houston |
|
Max70 #1 - Florida |
|
Max70 #2 - Florida |
|
Michael Vill #1 -
Gonzaga |
|
Michael Vill #3 -
Florida |
|
Michelle L. #1 -
Auburn |
|
Michelle L. #2 -
Florida |
|
Michelle L. #3 -
Duke |
|
Mike Lu #1 -
Florida |
|
Mike Lu #2 - Duke |
|
Mike Lu #4 -
Auburn |
|
Mike Nie - Duke |
|
Mustard - Oregon |
|
My Sister is
Skibidy - Florida |
|
Niren D. - Florida |
|
Off Eff - Florida |
|
Paint It Black and
Gold - Florida |
|
Paul K. #1 - Duke |
|
Paul K. #2 -
Auburn |
|
Paul K. #3 -
Florida |
|
Paul K. #4 -
Houston |
|
Pete J. #2 -
Florida |
|
PV - UCLA |
|
Reid D. - Texas
Tech |
|
Rich F. - Florida |
|
Rob I. #2 -
Florida |
|
Roth W. - Florida |
|
Ryan Gar - St.
John's |
|
Sacrificial Gutless
Bracket - Auburn |
|
Sam MG #1 - Auburn |
|
Scarlett H. -
Wisconsin |
|
Scott H. #2 - Duke |
|
Shawn D. - Duke |
|
Stephen C. - Duke |
|
Steve Muc #1 -
Mississippi State |
|
Steve Muc #2 -
Alabama |
|
Steve Muc #3 -
Creighton |
|
Steve Muc #4 - UC
San Diego |
|
Steve Muc #5 -
Duke |
|
Szecho L #1 -
Florida |
|
Szecho L #2 - Duke |
|
Tim Dz #2 -
Houston |
|
Tim Dz #3 - Duke |
|
Tina H. -
Wisconsin |
|
Tucker D. -
Michigan State |
|
Valerie D. -
Auburn |
|
Wayne D. #1 - Duke |
|
Wayne D. #2 -
Florida |
|
Wayne D. #3 -
Florida |
|
Zachary V. -
Houston |
|
Zoe W. - UCLA |
…on the flip side, here are the people still alive for 1st
place, and what their current probability of getting it assuming a coin flip in
every game:
|
Name |
1st Place |
|
Luis B. #5 -
Michigan State |
7.2250% |
|
Brent E. #6 -
Michigan |
5.7062% |
|
Becky H. - Alabama |
5.2637% |
|
Brandon B. #1 -
Kentucky |
4.8617% |
|
Kirt R. #2 - Texas
Tech |
4.1718% |
|
Daisy N. #3 -
Florida |
3.7024% |
|
Dustin B. -
Tennessee |
3.5945% |
|
Brad E. - Michigan |
3.0651% |
|
Otis L. - Purdue |
2.8926% |
|
Brent E. #8 -
Michigan State |
2.6589% |
|
Daisy N. #11 - UC
San Diego |
2.5639% |
|
Adam S. #1 - Duke |
2.1901% |
|
Michelle L. #5 -
Texas Tech |
2.0386% |
|
Thomas Val - Duke |
1.9737% |
|
Luis B. #3 - Duke |
1.9564% |
|
Dawn Tr -
Tennessee |
1.8071% |
|
Jay H. #2 -
Houston |
1.7810% |
|
Howard S. #1 -
Houston |
1.7166% |
|
Ally H. - Florida |
1.5521% |
|
Colston W. -
Florida |
1.4842% |
|
Pete J. #4 -
Tennessee |
1.4008% |
|
Mike Lu #5 -
Florida |
1.3744% |
|
Pete J. #3 -
Auburn |
1.2238% |
|
Irene H. #8 -
Alabama |
1.1870% |
|
Brian Ker -
Tennessee |
1.1826% |
|
Brent E. #1 -
Alabama |
1.0946% |
|
Chris M - Duke |
0.9511% |
|
TJ Val - Auburn |
0.8626% |
|
Pete J. #6 -
Alabama |
0.8534% |
|
Irene H. #6 -
Texas Tech |
0.7446% |
|
Adam Elm - Alabama |
0.7324% |
|
Irene H. #5 -
Michigan State |
0.6835% |
|
Jon L. - Houston |
0.6785% |
|
Elliot N. -
Florida |
0.6498% |
|
Regina L. -
Florida |
0.6498% |
|
Howard S. #2 -
Auburn |
0.6485% |
|
Erin Muc -
Kentucky |
0.6480% |
|
Elizabeth N. #1 -
Houston |
0.6470% |
|
Matt N. #4 -
Houston |
0.6299% |
|
Kylee Tr - Alabama |
0.6295% |
|
Alysimoso B. -
Houston |
0.6287% |
|
WaPo - Duke |
0.6124% |
|
Ben Silv - St.
John's |
0.6050% |
|
Ray Min - Auburn |
0.5575% |
|
Mary Lou H. -
Auburn |
0.5390% |
|
Kirt R. #1 -
Auburn |
0.5249% |
|
Daisy N. #6 -
Auburn |
0.5168% |
|
Derek H. - Duke |
0.4715% |
|
Irene H. #3 -
Tennessee |
0.4593% |
|
Tim Dz #1 - Auburn |
0.4486% |
|
Mike San - Houston |
0.4222% |
|
Pete J. #5 -
Houston |
0.4211% |
|
Jacob A #2 - Duke |
0.4150% |
|
Damien R. #1 -
Alabama |
0.4061% |
|
Daisy N. #1 -
Florida |
0.4044% |
|
Jackson I. -
Florida |
0.3728% |
|
Brent E. #7 -
Michigan State |
0.3710% |
|
Mark Sp #3 - Duke |
0.3548% |
|
Mark Sp #4 - Duke |
0.3548% |
|
COOL GUY - Houston |
0.3418% |
|
Adalyn H. -
Florida |
0.3352% |
|
Scott Koh #1 -
Auburn |
0.3209% |
|
Luis B. #2 -
Florida |
0.3179% |
|
Hutch H. #1 -
Kansas |
0.3133% |
|
Jason S. - Alabama |
0.3052% |
|
Brandon B. #2 -
Houston |
0.3001% |
|
Dennis R. #1 -
Auburn |
0.2986% |
|
Brett K. #1 -
Texas Tech |
0.2930% |
|
Dan McK #1 -
Auburn |
0.2858% |
|
Jim Ten -
Tennessee |
0.2625% |
|
Jon Fen - Michigan
State |
0.2503% |
|
Luis B. #1 - Duke |
0.2482% |
|
Wayne D. #4 -
Auburn |
0.2411% |
|
Brent E. #5 -
Michigan State |
0.2304% |
|
Dennis R. #2 -
Florida |
0.2256% |
|
Stan Ch. - Florida |
0.2207% |
|
Ryan W. - Duke |
0.2205% |
|
Pete J. #1 -
Florida |
0.2155% |
|
Green Machine -
Auburn |
0.2131% |
|
Ely A. - Duke |
0.2111% |
|
Mike Bar - Florida |
0.2024% |
|
Charlotte N -
Auburn |
0.1953% |
|
Daisy N. #7 -
Alabama |
0.1834% |
|
Adam S. #2 -
Auburn |
0.1787% |
|
Bryce O. - Duke |
0.1770% |
|
Ken Pom - Duke |
0.1760% |
|
Hero R. - Cats
Only - Auburn |
0.1719% |
|
Pat Forde - SI -
Florida |
0.1709% |
|
Larry G. #1 -
Florida |
0.1694% |
|
Larry G. #3 -
Florida |
0.1694% |
|
Tyler C. - Florida |
0.1689% |
|
Craig Ger - Duke |
0.1658% |
|
Brent E. #4 -
Tennessee |
0.1648% |
|
Chrissy S. - St.
John's |
0.1587% |
|
John Erick -
Houston |
0.1404% |
|
Sam MG #2 - Tennessee |
0.1404% |
|
Rob I. #1 - Duke |
0.1317% |
|
Chris Elm -
Florida |
0.1312% |
|
Brandon H. #1 -
Michigan State |
0.1304% |
|
Scott Koh #2 -
Florida |
0.1266% |
|
Dave A. - Michigan
State |
0.1221% |
|
Mike Lu #3 - Duke |
0.1221% |
|
Mario Muc -
Florida |
0.1170% |
|
Jared Bock -
Florida |
0.1162% |
|
Elizabeth N. #2 -
Duke |
0.1149% |
|
Seth Davis - Duke |
0.1119% |
|
April Koh - Duke |
0.1048% |
|
Chris T. - Florida |
0.1028% |
|
Irene H. #10 -
Duke |
0.1007% |
|
Doobie2 - Auburn |
0.0994% |
|
John Mack #1 -
Connecticut |
0.0961% |
|
Noah N. - Duke |
0.0900% |
|
CAAT #1 - Auburn |
0.0854% |
|
Josiah Tr - Auburn |
0.0834% |
|
Hutch H. #2 -
Florida |
0.0763% |
|
Daisy N. #10 - St.
John's |
0.0743% |
|
Linvansanity -
Michigan State |
0.0732% |
|
Michelle R. -
Houston |
0.0732% |
|
Dan McK #2 - Duke |
0.0621% |
|
Stefon K. - Auburn |
0.0544% |
|
Andrew D. #3 -
Houston |
0.0488% |
|
Chris L. #2 -
Houston |
0.0488% |
|
Missy W. - Florida |
0.0486% |
|
Andrew D. #4 -
Auburn |
0.0458% |
|
Chris L. #1 -
Florida |
0.0416% |
|
Daisy N. #9 -
Florida |
0.0416% |
|
Brad R. - Houston |
0.0409% |
|
Greg Ru - Auburn |
0.0407% |
|
Tim N. - Houston |
0.0376% |
|
Nick Vos - Duke |
0.0366% |
|
Harrell #2 - St.
John's |
0.0295% |
|
Michelle L. #4 -
Houston |
0.0244% |
|
Scott H. #1 -
Houston |
0.0244% |
|
Brett K. #3 -
Florida |
0.0244% |
|
Brett K. #2 -
Alabama |
0.0214% |
|
Dylan B. - Duke |
0.0203% |
|
CAAT #2 - Florida |
0.0169% |
|
Beau H. - Georgia |
0.0148% |
|
Jeff W. - Florida |
0.0099% |
|
Jay H. #1 -
Florida |
0.0092% |
|
CAAT #4 - Houston |
0.0061% |
|
Larry G. #2 - Duke |
0.0061% |
|
Pat K. - Florida |
0.0041% |
|
Leighton N. -
Georgia |
0.0037% |
|
Michael Vill #2 -
Michigan State |
0.0033% |
|
Brent E. #3 - St.
John's |
0.0031% |
To prove my point about picking the winner to be the most
important pick, Otis L. is in 266th in points, but he is the only
person to pick Purdue, so he is very much alive for 1st place – so long
as Purdue keeps winning that is.
I’ll try to get 2nd place out tonight. Good luck!!!!
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