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How unpredictable? No one picked even as many of the 3 final 4 teams correctly. Only 46 people managed to go 2/4. The average number of final 4 teams was less than 1 (.93 to be exact). That's even worse when you consider that Florida was the overall #1 seed of the tournament, so a ton of people got that one right.
It was so strange today, most people didn't get any points at all. Only 10 brackets got even 8 points today, and no one got 16. Of the 10, 6 of them were already eliminated from all contention, so all they really won today was a better finishing position. Adam E. #2 and Dimitris M. #3 got points today but were eliminated from all contention at the onset of the Sweet 16.
We started the day with 38 brackets alive for one of the top 4 spots. After the MSU bracket massacre, we only had 26 brackets alive. After Michigan lost, we were down to only 15 brackets. My wife swears that those people that are actually still reading these posts. That may be true. I don't care. I'll still do it.
Enough of the bitter part of the day, there was some silver linings to be had. Between games, I met Marissa W. for a short chat, since we live pretty close to one another. I had the bad fortune to tell her that the MSU knocked her entirely out of the pool, but it was still nice to catch up a little bit. She always seems to do well in the pool, but has yet to actually finish in the money.
If I try to look past my bitterness at Kentucky (yuck) and Connecticut making the final 4, It tests the enjoyment that I usually get having 7 & 8 seeds make the Final 4. I do actually like to reward people that pick things like that and have it payoff for them. I just prefer it when a team like Wichita State does it like last year rather than Kentucky. One solace I can take from the Kentucky run is that virtually the entire team is going to the NBA after they lose, so I won't have to watch this team get any better. Of course, they will just bring another team of Hessians next year. I think what I'm trying to say is that I really don't like the one-and-done rule.
An interesting side stat: If you add up the seeds in the Final 4 last year (1+4+4+9) and this year (1+2+7+8) it is exactly 18 in both years. Feel free to use this to base your picks next year.
I also get some schadenfreude in the MSU loss. Everyone on the studio shows said that MSU and Louisville were going to win the tournament. It's somewhat nice to see that studio guys don't know much more than the rest of us. I honestly think I could be Seth Davis.
The MSU eliminations were in yesterday's post. Here are the Michigan eliminations:
| Ally H. (1st) |
| Carrie P. #4 (3rd, 4th) |
| Dan D. #2 (4th) |
| David S. #2 (4th) |
| Gary M. #2 (4th) |
| Irene L. #2 (3rd) |
| Joe K. #2 (2nd, 3rd, 4th) |
| Matt J. #1 (3rd, 4th) |
| Peter J. #3 (3rd) |
| Peter J. #5 (2nd) |
| Ryan H. (3rd, 4th) |
| Stephanie P. #3 (4th) |
Sadly, that ends Ally's run in the tournament. Good run, Ally. Better luck next time. It's probably also especially bad for Ryan H., as he is currently a student in Ann Arbor. Losing out in the pool is bad enough, but I'm going to guess that the campus is going to be down a little tomorrow.
Amazingly, of the 15 brackets that can still get a place, Matt J. and Daisy N. are holdovers from last years pool.
There are only 5 brackets that can still get both of the finalists right, and not one of them has Kentucky in the final game. They are:
Mark N. #1 (Florida / Wisconsin)
Ray W. #3 (Connecticut / Wisconsin)
Ben J. #3 (Florida / Wisconsin)
Matt J. #1 (Florida / Wisconsin)
Chun W. #1 (Florida / Wisconsin)
All 5 are alive for at least something.
Depending on how games play out, it is entirely possible that someone could win money this year that did not get the champion right. I never would have guessed that at the beginning of the tournament.
Here are the percentages for first place:
| 1. Mark N. #1: 25% |
| 1. Ray W. #3: 25% |
| 1. Josiah T. #4: 25% |
| 4. Ben J. #3: 12.5% |
| 5. Chad L. #2: 6.25% |
| 5. Zachary V.: 6.25% |
...and 2nd place:
| 1. John M. #1: 25% |
| 2. Daisy N. #5: 12.5% |
| 2. Dan S.: 12.5% |
| 2. Mark N. #1: 12.5% |
| 2. Ray W. #3: 12.5% |
| 2. Matt J. #1: 12.5% |
| 7. Chad L. #2: 6.25% |
| 7. Zachary V.: 6.25% |
...and 3rd place:
| 1. Miguel D.: 25% |
| 2. Dan S.: 12.5% |
| 2. Mark N. #1: 12.5% |
| 2. Daisy N. #5: 12.5% |
| 2. Chun W. #1: 12.5% |
| 6. Chad L. #2: 6.25% |
| 6. Larry G. #1: 6.25% |
| 6. Jack K. #1: 6.25% |
| 6. Zachary V.: 6.25% |
...and 4th place:
| 1. Mark N. #1: 25% |
| 2. Ben J. #3: 12.5% |
| 2. Andrzej R.: 12.5% |
| 2. Chad L. #2: 12.5% |
| 2. Zachary V.: 12.5% |
| 2. Ray W. #3: 12.5% |
| 7. Larry G. #1: 6.25% |
| 7. Jack K. #1: 6.25% |
There are still some ways this pool can end in a tie, which I hate. At least we eliminated all scenarios where there was a 3+ way tie. All ties are 2-way if they exist. That's something.
For future pools, I think this is an important thing to remember: There are 6 brackets alive for 1st place. Of that group, only Chad L. #2 has not finished a day in less than 100th position in the points standings. Actually, Chad L. #2 has never finished a day any lower than 15th. The reverse of that is Josiah T. #4 who is currently in 92nd in points, but as the only bracket to have Kentucky winning it all, is still alive. The point is not to get too discouraged if your bracket is not doing all that well.
I hope everyone has had a good tournament so far. There are no games until next Saturday, so everyone can take the week to discuss things. I'll send something out for eliminations this week at some point. Until then, have a great week and congratulations to those that have made it this far.
