Elite 8 edition

I think there are many days during the course of the tournament that I really, really like.  I was trying to rank them, but I don't think I can.  There's the day that I send out my initial e-mail reminding people of the pool.  There's selection Sunday.  There's Rex Manning day where I get to be the local guest star at my old place of employment.  Then there's the opening weekend (4 days worth of fun!!!).  The time I get to calculate the initial probabilities of everyone winning.  These are all gold star days for me.  Right up there is today, and the reason today is special is because it is the day that anyone that picked solely by the seeds is mathematically eliminated from getting paid anything.  Anyone so gutless as to pick only by the seeds should NEVER be rewarded for doing it.  It happened once a while ago, but the Virginia loss tonight guarantees that it won't happen this year.  Woo Hoo!!!!!

It was a good night of basketball, and it was also a very relevant night in regards to our pool.  Lots of teams that people had going far lost, and some of the upsets really paid off for the small percentage of people that had them.

We managed to have 2 people go 4/4 tonight.  Marissa W. #2 nailed all 4 games tonight to move way up in the points standings (99th to 4th).  The other was Miguel D.  He moved from 115th to 15th in points.   Both of them are currently in the top 10 for percent chance to win the pool.

Only 8 people got 12/16.  Sadly for Josiah T. #2, losing that one game cost him a chance at any money.  The Louisville knocks him out of all 4 spots despite sitting in 16th in points currently.  That kind of sucks for him.

81 people managed to pull off 2/4.  122 people only got 1 game and 33 people went 0/4.  Of the 33 people that were shut out today, only Chun W. #1 is still alive for anything (3rd place).  I guess that follows.  You can't really go 0/4 and expect to still win anything.

Anyway, there were a lot of people knocked out of a lot of standings today.  Here are the eliminations in chronological order:

Tennessee losing:

Ben J. #1  (1st)

Bosun S.  (3rd, 4th)

Brent E. #5  (2nd)

Brett K. #1  (3rd, 4th)

Christina S. #1  (3rd)

Christina S. #6  (3rd)

Dominic M.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Gene B. #1  (1st, 2nd)

Hal R. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Howard S. #1  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Howard S. #2  (4th)

Jack K. #1  (1st)

Jack K. #2  (2nd)

Jay H. #3  (3rd, 4th)

Josh C.  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Karen C. #2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Larry G. #2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Larry G. #4  (1st, 2nd)

Matt N.  (2nd)

Michelle L. #4  (3rd, 4th)

Mike San #2  (3rd)

Mike Sm.  (3rd)

Ray W. #1  (1st, 2nd)

Scott Hass.  (3rd)

Scott Her. #2  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Scott K. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Stan C. #2  (2nd)

Steve D.  (4th)

Steve M. #3  (4th)

Tomas L. #1  (2nd)

Tomas L. #3  (1st)

William G. #1  (3rd, 4th)

Iowa State losing:

Amos W.  (4th)

Ben J. #1  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Ben W.  (3rd, 4th)

Brad R.  (3rd, 4th)

Brett K. #2  (1st)

Carrie P. #4  (1st)

Chris L. #1  (3rd, 4th)

Chris M. #4  (1st)

Christina S. #1  (4th)

Christina S. #2  (2nd)

Chun W. #1  (1st)

Chun W. #2  (1st)

Dennis R. #3  (1st, 2nd)

Eric C.  (3rd)

Hal R. #1  (2nd, 4th)

Jack K. #2  (3rd)

James G. #1  (2nd, 3rd)

James G. #2  (4th)

Josiah T. #4  (2nd)

Karen C. #1  (4th)

Klei R. #1  (1st)

Larry G. #1  (1st)

Luis B. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Luis B. #2  (3rd)

Marc R. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Mason A. #4  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Matt N.  (3rd)

Michelle L. #2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Miguel D.  (4th)

Mike San #2  (4th)

Mike Sm.  (4th)

Paul W.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Peter J. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Roth W.  (3rd)

Scott Hass.  (2nd)

Stephanie P. #1  (2nd)

Stephanie P. #3  (1st)

Stephanie P. #4  (2nd)

Stephanie P. #5  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Taima B. #2  (3rd)

Tim N.  (2nd)

Tomas L. #3  (2nd, 4th)

Louisville losing:

Amelia H.  (1st)

Andrea A.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

April K.  (2nd)

Becky H.  (2nd, 4th)

Brent E. #1  (1st)

Brent E. #4  (1st)

Brent E. #5  (3rd)

Brent S. #1  (1st)

Carrie P. #4  (2nd)

Chris M. #1  (4th)

Chris M. #3  (1st, 2nd, 4th)

Christina S. #2  (1st, 3rd)

Christina S. #6  (4th)

Chun W. #3  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Chun W. #4  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Daisy N. #4  (2nd)

Damien R. #2  (1st)

David S. #3  (1st)

Eric C.  (4th)

Eric V.  (2nd)

Gene B. #1  (3rd, 4th)

Hal R. #1  (3rd)

Irene L. #2  (2nd)

Jack K. #2  (4th)

James G. #1  (4th)

Jay H. #2  (4th)

Jim D. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

John M. #1  (4th)

Joseph H.  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Josh S. #1  (2nd, 3rd)

Josiah T. #2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

KenPom  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Klei - Alex O.  (2nd, 4th)

Klei R. #1  (2nd)

Marc R. #1  (1st)

Matt N.  (4th)

Mike L. #1  (1st, 2nd)

Mike L. #2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Mike L. #3  (4th)

Peter J. #1  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Ray W. #1  (3rd, 4th)

Ray W. #2  (4th)

Rich F.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Roth W.  (1st, 2nd)

Ryan G.  (2nd, 3rd)

Sarah G.  (2nd, 4th)

Scott Hass.  (1st)

Scott Her. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Scott K. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Stan C. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Stephanie P. #4  (1st, 3rd, 4th)

Steve D.  (2nd, 3rd)

Taima B. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Taima B. #2  (4th)

Todd K. #2  (1st)

Todd K. #3  (1st)

Tomas L. #1  (3rd)

Tomas L. #3  (3rd)

Virginia L. #2  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

William G. #3  (1st)

Virginia losing:

April K.  (3rd, 4th)

Brett W.  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Chris M. #4  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Christina S. #2  (4th)

Christina S. #3  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Chun W. #1  (2nd, 4th)

Chun W. #2  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Daisy N. #1  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Damien R. #2  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

David S. #1  (3rd, 4th)

David S. #3  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Dennis R. #3  (3rd, 4th)

Eric V.  (1st, 3rd, 4th)

Gary M. #2  (2nd, 3rd)

Gary W.  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Gutless Dimitris  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Howard S. #3  (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Irene L. #2  (4th)

Jay H. #2  (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Jay H. #3  (1st, 2nd)

Klei - Alex O.  (3rd)

Klei R. #1  (3rd, 4th)

Larry G. #4  (3rd, 4th)

Luis B. #2  (1st, 2nd, 4th)

Matt J. #1  (1st)

Matt J. #4  (3rd, 4th)

Michelle L. #2  (4th)

Peter J. #3  (1st, 2nd)

Robert H. #2  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Roth W.  (4th)

Stephanie P. #2  (1st, 2nd)

Tim N.  (1st, 4th)

Todd K. #3  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Tomas L. #2  (3rd, 4th)

Tracy V.  (1st, 2nd)

William G. #3  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

If you didn't see your name on any of these lists, congratulations, you are probably one of the 75 brackets that are still alive for at least one place.

There are 12 brackets that can get no more points.  Obviously all of them are eliminated.  Paul W. currently sits in 37th in points, but with a final 4 of Syracuse, Iowa State, San Diego State and Louisville, his tournament is done.

On the flip side, there are 10 brackets that can still get all 4 of the Final 4.  There are 2 amazing stats associated with these 10 brackets.  First, Brent E. is 3 of them.  He has Florida, MSU, Wisconsin and Michigan all all 3.  He is the only person to have won this pool AND my bowl pool.  Not only that, he finished 1st and 2nd in the bowl pool, so if you want picks, I recommend going to him.  He seems to have a real knack for it.  Secondly, my Dad can get all 4, but is mathematically eliminated from all 4 payouts.  He has the exact same Final 4 as Brent E, and the MSU over Michigan final was pretty popular as at least 5 people have that out of the 10.  Another amazing stat in those 10 is that none of them has Arizona making the championship game.  All of them have either Michigan or Wisconsin.

All right, here are the updated probabilities for 1st place:

1. Ray W. #3: 13.2812%

2. Josiah T. #4: 12.5%

2. Ally H.: 12.5%

4. Mark N. #1: 8.5937%

5. Miguel D.: 6.25%

6. Daisy N. #5: 5.8593%

7. Ryan H.: 5.4687%

8. Jay K.: 3.9062%

9. Ben J. #3: 3.125%

9. Marissa W. #2: 3.125%

9. Josh S. #1: 3.125%

12. Virginia L. #1: 2.7343%

13. Brent E. #6: 2.3437%

14. Josh S. #2: 1.9531%

15. Christina S. #3: 1.5625%

15. Becky H.: 1.5625%

15. Mason A. #1: 1.5625%

15. Erica A.: 1.5625%

15. Andrzej R.: 1.5625%

20. Chad L. #2: 1.1718%

20. Zachary V.: 1.1718%

22. Brent E. #3: 0.7812%

22. Joe K. #2: 0.7812%

22. Dimitris M. #5: 0.7812%

22. Daisy N. #4: 0.7812%

26. Ron B.: 0.5208%

26. Damien R. #1: 0.5208%

26. Greg F.: 0.5208%

29. Dan S.: 0.3906%

....and 2nd place:

1. John M. #1: 11.7187%

2. Daisy N. #5: 7.8125%

2. Miguel D.: 7.8125%

4. Stephanie P. #3: 7.4218%

5. Dan S.: 3.9062%

5. Peter J. #5: 3.9062%

7. Chad L. #2: 3.5156%

8. Mark N. #1: 3.125%

8. Mike L. #3: 3.125%

10. Brent E. #6: 2.7343%

10. Joe K. #2: 2.7343%

12. Ally H.: 2.3437%

12. Ray W. #3: 2.3437%

12. Virginia L. #1: 2.3437%

12. Jay K.: 2.3437%

12. Robert H. #1: 2.3437%

12. Andrzej R.: 2.3437%

18. Mason A. #1: 2.0833%

18. Erica A.: 2.0833%

20. Zachary V.: 1.9531%

20. Marissa W. #2: 1.9531%

22. Ron B.: 1.8229%

22. Damien R. #1: 1.8229%

22. Greg F.: 1.8229%

25. Ryan H.: 1.5625%

25. Terry F. #1: 1.5625%

25. Josh S. #2: 1.5625%

28. Brent S. #1: 1.1718%

29. Dan D. #2: 0.7812%

29. Matt J. #1: 0.7812%

29. Kyle V.: 0.7812%

29. Todd K. #2: 0.7812%

29. Marc R. #1: 0.7812%

29. Amelia H.: 0.7812%

29. Dimitris M. #5: 0.7812%

29. Brent E. #3: 0.7812%

37. Brett K. #2: 0.5208%

38. Ben J. #3: 0.3906%

38. Larry G. #1: 0.3906%

38. Brent E. #4: 0.3906%

38. Brent E. #1: 0.3906%

38. Jack K. #1: 0.3906%

...and 3rd place:

1. Dan S.: 7.4218%

2. Mark N. #1: 6.25%

3. Brent E. #6: 5.0781%

4. Miguel D.: 4.6875%

4. Peter J. #5: 4.6875%

6. Marissa W. #2: 3.9062%

7. Ryan H.: 3.3854%

8. Ray W. #3: 3.125%

8. Todd K. #2: 3.125%

10. Ron B.: 2.3437%

10. Damien R. #1: 2.3437%

10. Daryl J.: 2.3437%

10. Greg F.: 2.3437%

10. Jay K.: 2.3437%

15. Daisy N. #5: 2.2135%

16. Andrzej R.: 1.9531%

16. Josh S. #2: 1.9531%

18. Brent S. #1: 1.8229%

19. Chad L. #2: 1.5625%

19. Tim N.: 1.5625%

19. Ally H.: 1.5625%

19. Tracy V.: 1.5625%

19. Dan D. #2: 1.5625%

19. Terry F. #1: 1.5625%

19. Carrie P. #4: 1.5625%

19. Daisy N. #2: 1.5625%

27. Joe K. #2: 1.4322%

27. Dimitris M. #5: 1.4322%

29. Virginia L. #1: 1.1718%

29. Larry G. #1: 1.1718%

29. Kyle V.: 1.1718%

29. Robert H. #1: 1.1718%

29. Jack K. #1: 1.1718%

34. Zachary V.: 1.0416%

35. Stephanie P. #3: 0.7812%

35. Chun W. #1: 0.7812%

35. David S. #2: 0.7812%

35. Peter J. #3: 0.7812%

35. Stephanie P. #2: 0.7812%

35. Becky H.: 0.7812%

35. Irene L. #2: 0.7812%

35. John M. #1: 0.7812%

35. Chris M. #3: 0.7812%

35. Marc R. #1: 0.7812%

35. Amelia H.: 0.7812%

35. Mike L. #1: 0.7812%

35. Julie S.: 0.7812%

35. Brent E. #3: 0.7812%

35. Ray W. #2: 0.7812%

35. Karen C. #1: 0.7812%

51. Ben J. #3: 0.651%

52. Mason A. #1: 0.5208%

52. Erica A.: 0.5208%

52. Brett K. #2: 0.5208%

55. Todd K. #1: 0.3906%

55. Brent E. #1: 0.3906%

55. Brent E. #4: 0.3906%

58. Matt J. #1: 0.2604%

58. Josiah T. #4: 0.2604%

...and 4th:

1. Ben J. #3: 4.9479%

2. Jay K.: 4.1666%

3. Daisy N. #4: 3.9062%

4. Ryan H.: 3.776%

5. Andrzej R.: 3.5156%

6. Mark N. #1: 3.125%

6. Tracy V.: 3.125%

8. Daisy N. #5: 2.9947%

9. Marissa W. #2: 2.9947%

10. Chad L. #2: 2.7343%

11. Ron B.: 2.4739%

11. Damien R. #1: 2.4739%

11. Greg F.: 2.4739%

14. David S. #2: 2.3437%

14. Julie S.: 2.3437%

16. Joe K. #2: 2.2135%

16. Brent E. #6: 2.2135%

18. Dimitris M. #5: 2.0833%

19. Ally H.: 1.9531%

19. Mike L. #1: 1.9531%

21. Zachary V.: 1.8229%

21. Josh S. #2: 1.8229%

23. Brent S. #1: 1.6927%

24. Dan D. #2: 1.5625%

24. Carrie P. #4: 1.5625%

24. Ray W. #3: 1.5625%

24. Terry F. #1: 1.5625%

24. Peter J. #5: 1.5625%

24. Brent E. #3: 1.5625%

24. Meredith R.: 1.5625%

24. Mason A. #4: 1.5625%

24. Tomas L. #1: 1.5625%

24. Christina S. #4: 1.5625%

34. Stephanie P. #2: 1.4322%

35. Stephanie P. #3: 1.1718%

35. Todd K. #2: 1.1718%

35. Robert H. #1: 1.1718%

35. Larry G. #1: 1.1718%

35. Jack K. #1: 1.1718%

40. Virginia L. #1: 1.0416%

41. Amelia H.: 0.8463%

41. Marc R. #1: 0.8463%

43. Peter J. #3: 0.7812%

43. Dan S.: 0.7812%

43. Gary M. #2: 0.7812%

43. Ryan G.: 0.7812%

43. William G. #2: 0.7812%

43. Daryl J.: 0.7812%

43. Kyle V.: 0.7812%

43. Larry G. #2: 0.7812%

51. Mason A. #1: 0.5208%

51. Erica A.: 0.5208%

51. Brett K. #2: 0.5208%

54. Josh S. #1: 0.4557%

55. Brent E. #1: 0.3906%

55. Brent E. #4: 0.3906%

55. Todd K. #1: 0.3906%

58. Matt J. #1: 0.2604%

58. Taima B. #1: 0.2604%

58. Andrea A.: 0.2604%

58. Mike L. #2: 0.2604%

58. Scott Hass.: 0.2604%

58. Josiah T. #4: 0.2604%

64. Daisy N. #2: 0.1953%

That's it for tonight.  I'll put the eliminations out there tomorrow morning.  The games aren't until later in the day anyway, so I'll have time.  I also need to get some sleep.  Good night and good luck to everyone!!!!!