March Madness - 6 games in

Well, there's a little break in the action, so I figured I'd write a little something.  Albany is currently giving Florida all it can handle and Michigan State is pulling away from Delaware.  These two games shouldn't be close if you go by the pick distribution.  The Florida / Albany game is a shutout.  No one took Albany.  Maybe they didn't like those hideous uniforms they wear, or the fact that their jerseys say "UAlbany" on the front.  Then again, maybe it's because Florida hasn't lost since December 2 and are the #1 overall seed.  Either way the distribution is:

Florida: 247
Albany: 0

The other game has MSU as a huge favorite as well:

MSU: 240
Delaware: 7

That's a big surprise for a 4/13 game.  Then again, this is no typical 4 seed.  Every one of the studio guys on ESPN picked MSU to win it all when the brackets were announced.  People seemed to take that to heart as they are second most picked team to win it after Florida.  Florida (25.51%), MSU (14.97%).  That's pretty incredible for a 4 seed.

As a comparison, last year the highest number of people that picked a 4 seed to win the pool was 5 (Michigan).

For those curious about the distribution of winners:

Florida	63
Michigan State	37
Louisville	29
Arizona	28
Wichita State	13
Virginia	13
Kansas	13
San Diego State	9
Michigan	9
Wisconsin	6
Syracuse	5
Duke	5
Iowa State	5
Connecticut	2
Creighton	2
Villanova	1
Cincinnati	1
Ohio State	1
Western Michigan	1
Kentucky	1
Massachusetts	1
North Carolina	1
UCLA	1

As my friend Howard mentioned: Villanova is the most disrespected #2 seed in history.  Only one person took them to win it all as a #2 seed?  That seems crazy to me.  Villanova seems like a good value bet right now.  Then again, they haven't played a game yet.  I'm sure Duke looked like a good value bet against Lehigh a few years ago.

Here are the distributions for the various regions for teams to make the Final 4.  You will notice that they are very top-heavy with top 4 seeds.  You'd think someone would take a chance on a seed lower just because Wichita State last year, and Butler and VCU all made it as 5 seeds or less, but it's not so easy to think too far outside of the box.  It's a high risk play, to be sure.

Here's the South:

Florida	157
Kansas	47
Syracuse	20
UCLA	11
Ohio State	7
Western Michigan	2
VCU	1
New Mexico	1
Stanford	1

...and the East:

Michigan State	127
Virginia	50
Iowa State	30
Villanova	23
North Carolina	6
Connecticut	5
Cincinnati	3
NC Central	1
Memphis	1
Milwaukee	1

...and the West:

Arizona	121
Wisconsin	62
San Diego State	29
Creighton	25
Oklahoma State	4
Oklahoma	3
Oregon	1
Louisiana-Lafayette	1
Gonzaga	1

...and finally the Midwest:

Louisville	99
Michigan	52
Wichita State	45
Duke	40
Kentucky	5
Massachusetts	2
Arizona State	1
NC State / Xavier	1
Iowa / Tennessee	1
Kansas State	1

By far the most common final 4 is:

Florida / MSU / Arizona / Louisville.  No less than 34 people have that.  The next closest is:  Florida / MSU / Wisconsin / Louisville with 10.

As for the championship game, the most common matchup is:

Florida / Louisville with 35 brackets.  The second is Florida / Arizona with 27.

For those scoring at home, we are down to 8 perfect brackets.  Unless Florida or MSU somehow loses, that number won't change as all 8 picked both favorites.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!