Posts
It looks like there are still 133 people still in the running to get 1st place, which means that 113 brackets were knocked out at the Sweet 16 stage. That seems like a lot alive to me, but I don't know. Maybe it's not.
Here are the people that are no longer eligible to win 1st place:
| Abel R. |
| Adam E. #1 |
| Adam E. #2 |
| Alex T. |
| April K. |
| Ava S. |
| Ben J. #2 |
| Ben W. |
| Bhav R. |
| Bosun S. |
| Brent E. #2 |
| Brent E. #5 |
| Brent S. #2 |
| Brett K. #1 |
| Brett W. |
| Carl B. |
| Carrie P. #2 |
| Carrie P. #3 |
| Chad C. |
| Chad L. #1 |
| Chris L. #1 |
| Chris L. #2 |
| Chris L. #3 |
| Chris M. #1 |
| Christina S. #4 |
| Christina S. #6 |
| Chun W. #4 |
| Daisy N. #3 |
| Dan D. #1 |
| Dan D. #2 |
| Daryl J. |
| David S. #1 |
| David S. #2 |
| David S. #4 |
| Dennis R. #1 |
| Dennis R. #2 |
| Dimitris M. #2 |
| Dimitris M. #3 |
| Elena S. |
| Esteban D. |
| Gary M. #1 |
| Gary M. #2 |
| Gutless Dimitris |
| Howard S. #1 |
| Howard S. #4 |
| Hutch H. #1 |
| Hutch H. #2 |
| Irene L. #2 |
| Jack K. #2 |
| Jack K. #3 |
| James G. #2 |
| James K. |
| Jeff W. |
| Jim D. #2 |
| Joe K. #1 |
| John E. |
| John M. #2 |
| Josiah T. #1 |
| Josiah T. #3 |
| Josiah T. #5 |
| Julie S. |
| Justin G. |
| Kansas C. |
| Karen C. #1 |
| Karl K. |
| Kevin W. |
| Kirt R. |
| Klei R. - RND |
| Klei R. #2 |
| Kyle V. |
| Larry G. #3 |
| Luis B. #3 |
| Marc R. #2 |
| Marissa W. #1 |
| Marissa W. #4 |
| Mark N. #2 |
| Mason A. #2 |
| Mason A. #3 |
| Matt J. #2 |
| Matt J. #4 |
| Michelle L. #4 |
| Mike L. #3 |
| Mike San #1 |
| Mike San #2 |
| Missy W. #1 |
| Missy W. #2 |
| Peter J. #1 |
| Peter J. #2 |
| Peter J. #4 |
| Peter J. #5 |
| Robert H. #1 |
| Ryan G. |
| Sarah G. |
| Shawn S.B. |
| Stan C. #1 |
| Stan C. #2 |
| Stephanie P. #1 |
| Steve H. |
| Steve M. #1 |
| Steve M. #2 |
| Steve M. #3 |
| Steve M. #4 |
| Sue L. |
| Taima B. #2 |
| Terry F. #1 |
| Terry F. #2 |
| Todd K. #1 |
| Todd K. #4 |
| Tomas L. #2 |
| Virginia L. #2 |
| William G. #1 |
| William G. #2 |
| William G. #4 |
That doesn't mean you can't win something else. Last year, I think the bracket that finished 4th was eliminated from 1st place contention at the Sweet 16. I will calculate the probabilities for 2nd, 3rd, etc. probably tomorrow.
Interesting asides:
The bracket with the most points that can't win 1st is Brett K. #1 with 47 points. He was in a tie for 28th, but with a Championship of MSU over Duke and a Final 4 that had them and Florida and Arizona, there was just too many people above him in the standings with a similar bracket for him to make up enough ground to win.
On the other side, the lowest pointed bracket that can still win is Stephanie P. #5, who has 32 points currently. She has a championship game is Iowa State over Wisconsin, and a Final 4 which includes Michigan and Florida. Obviously, she is being rewarded for having a strange championship that is still alive. That's part of why you pick like that. It can keep you alive as long as those teams keep winning. With Brett K, he really was relying on winning tie-breakers (1st & 2nd round games) to put him ahead of other people that had a similar bracket.
Here are the initial probabilities of winning:
| 1. Ray W. #1: 10.1137% |
| 2. Ray W. #3: 8.4709% |
| 3. Josiah T. #4: 6.0485% |
| 4. Mark N. #1: 5.0323% |
| 5. Paul W.: 3.8813% |
| 6. Christina S. #5: 3.7109% |
| 7. Howard S. #3: 3.2897% |
| 8. Miguel D.: 2.9488% |
| 9. Marissa W. #2: 2.6774% |
| 10. Matt J. #3: 2.4383% |
| 11. Mason A. #1: 2.3696% |
| 12. Daisy N. #1: 2.3529% |
| 13. Chad L. #2: 2.1479% |
| 14. Mason A. #4: 1.8615% |
| 15. Stephanie P. #3: 1.6906% |
| 16. Ally H.: 1.6021% |
| 17. Daisy N. #5: 1.5777% |
| 18. Tracy V.: 1.5228% |
| 19. Christina S. #1: 1.3244% |
| 20. Luis B. #2: 1.2939% |
| 21. David S. #3: 1.2736% |
| 22. Brett K. #2: 1.2435% |
| 23. Chris M. #3: 1.2247% |
| 24. Michelle L. #2: 1.1784% |
| 25. Tomas L. #4: 1.1505% |
| 26. Ray W. #4: 1.0833% |
| 27. Hal R. #1: 1.0498% |
| 28. Jay K.: 1.0487% |
| 29. Hal R. #2: 0.9241% |
| 30. Roth W.: 0.8605% |
| 31. Klei - Alex O.: 0.8076% |
| 32. Christina S. #3: 0.7781% |
| 32. Josh S. #1: 0.7781% |
| 34. Jay H. #2: 0.7568% |
| 35. James G. #1: 0.7333% |
| 36. Scott K. #1: 0.6469% |
| 37. Zachary V.: 0.622% |
| 38. Robert H. #2: 0.5859% |
| 39. Virginia L. #1: 0.5747% |
| 40. Jay H. #3: 0.5646% |
| 41. Scott Hass.: 0.5594% |
| 42. Brent S. #1: 0.5279% |
| 43. Sally R.: 0.4971% |
| 44. Rich F.: 0.4638% |
| 45. Chris M. #4: 0.4547% |
| 46. Andrzej R.: 0.4445% |
| 47. Damien R. #2: 0.4333% |
| 48. Stephanie P. #5: 0.4302% |
| 49. Damien R. #1: 0.4057% |
| 50. Matt J. #1: 0.3723% |
| 51. Chun W. #1: 0.3458% |
| 52. Greg F.: 0.3371% |
| 53. Meredith R.: 0.3255% |
| 54. Chun W. #3: 0.3234% |
| 55. Gary W.: 0.3173% |
| 56. Todd K. #3: 0.3163% |
| 57. Eric C.: 0.3082% |
| 58. KenPom: 0.3051% |
| 59. Howard S. #2: 0.2929% |
| 59. Marissa W. #3: 0.2929% |
| 61. Scott Her. #2: 0.2765% |
| 62. Ryan H.: 0.2746% |
| 63. Ben J. #3: 0.2716% |
| 64. Klei R. #1: 0.2685% |
| 65. Mike L. #1: 0.2655% |
| 65. Ron B.: 0.2655% |
| 67. Eric V.: 0.2583% |
| 68. Brent E. #6: 0.2471% |
| 69. Irene L. #1: 0.2278% |
| 70. Chun W. #2: 0.2258% |
| 71. Carrie P. #1: 0.2235% |
| 72. Todd K. #2: 0.2197% |
| 73. Tomas L. #1: 0.2014% |
| 74. Josiah T. #2: 0.1983% |
| 75. Josh S. #2: 0.1922% |
| 76. Carrie P. #4: 0.177% |
| 77. Matt N.: 0.1647% |
| 78. Gene B. #2: 0.1586% |
| 78. Jeff D.: 0.1586% |
| 80. Jim W.: 0.1525% |
| 81. Michelle L. #3: 0.1464% |
| 81. Peter J. #3: 0.1464% |
| 81. Steve D.: 0.1464% |
| 84. Damien R. #3: 0.1403% |
| 84. Joe K. #2: 0.1403% |
| 86. Tim N.: 0.1373% |
| 87. Christina S. #2: 0.1342% |
| 88. Stephanie P. #2: 0.1281% |
| 89. Daisy N. #2: 0.122% |
| 89. Jay H. #1: 0.122% |
| 89. Mike Sm.: 0.122% |
| 92. Ben J. #1: 0.1159% |
| 92. Tomas L. #3: 0.1159% |
| 94. Brent E. #3: 0.1129% |
| 95. John M. #1: 0.1098% |
| 96. Stephanie P. #4: 0.1078% |
| 97. Becky H.: 0.1007% |
| 98. Jack K. #4: 0.0996% |
| 99. Larry G. #2: 0.0935% |
| 100. Erica A.: 0.0915% |
| 101. Dan S.: 0.0854% |
| 102. Karen C. #3: 0.0732% |
| 103. Dimitris M. #4: 0.0671% |
| 104. Josh C.: 0.0651% |
| 105. Marc R. #1: 0.061% |
| 106. Jack K. #1: 0.0559% |
| 107. Scott Her. #1: 0.0549% |
| 108. William G. #3: 0.0539% |
| 109. Amos W.: 0.0488% |
| 109. Luis B. #1: 0.0488% |
| 111. Brent E. #1: 0.0457% |
| 112. Brent E. #4: 0.0396% |
| 112. Chris M. #2: 0.0396% |
| 114. Larry G. #4: 0.0366% |
| 115. Daisy N. #4: 0.0366% |
| 116. Taima B. #1: 0.035% |
| 117. Dennis R. #3: 0.0345% |
| 118. Amelia H.: 0.0335% |
| 119. Brian G.: 0.0244% |
| 119. Dimitris M. #5: 0.0244% |
| 119. Joseph H.: 0.0244% |
| 122. Jim D. #1: 0.0228% |
| 123. Scott K. #2: 0.0193% |
| 124. Michelle L. #1: 0.0193% |
| 125. Dominic M.: 0.0167% |
| 126. Andrea A.: 0.0137% |
| 126. Mike L. #2: 0.0137% |
| 128. Brad R.: 0.0111% |
| 129. Larry G. #1: 0.0091% |
| 129. Ray W. #2: 0.0091% |
| 131. Amy D.: 0.0061% |
| 131. Karen C. #2: 0.0061% |
| 133. Gene B. #1: 0.003% |
I'm not surprised to see Ray W. at the top. As I mentioned before, he is the only person to pick UCLA, so if that happens, he will almost certainly win. He also has the most points to start, so if all Armageddon occurs, he is in the best position to still win. That gives him a great chance at winning it all. However, if UCLA falls to Florida in the next round, he could be in some serious trouble.....
I was a little surprised to see Ray W. in second place as well. Then I looked at his bracket. He is currently a respectable 23rd in points, but his Championship is Connecticut over Wisconsin. That is sufficiently different from anyone elses bracket that his chances go way up if you consider all possible scenarios equal.
The same goes for Josiah T. #4. He is currently sitting in 224th place in points, but as the only person to pick Kentucky to win, he gets a lot of credit. These brackets will have to dodge a lot of landmines to win as they are heavily leveraged, but at this point, anything is possible.
I'll be back tomorrow with 2nd, 3rd and 4th place odds.
Good luck!!!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment