March Madness - After Round 1

Well, that last slate of 4 games was a little anti-climactic.  For the first time all day, it was all chalk.  All 4 higher seeded teams wound up winning, and most of the games weren't that interesting.  It seems like the Duke loss was the biggest loss of the entire first round.  They were the only team that was seeded to make the Sweet 16 that didn't advance.  If you were able to avoid that loss today, you probably wound up doing pretty good.

The distribution of the last slate of 4 games goes like this:

4/4: 173 brackets
3/4: 57 brackets
2/4: 12 brackets
1/4: 4 brackets (David S. #4, Marissa W. #1, Jeff W., Chris L.#3)

Ouch on those last 4.  As they turned out, this was easy picking.  Then again, no guts, no glory.  I admire the attempt to nail the upsets.  It's definitely a risk/reward type of analysis.

So, compliments of Duke, we had no one go 16/16.  Also compliments of Duke, we picked at a lower rate than yesterday.  If you remember yesterday, we had an average of 12.  Today, we picked 11.13 games correct on average with the median being 11 and the mode being 11 as well.

The distribution of the picks correctly guessed today looks amazingly bell-curved.

15/16:  1 bracket
14/16: 12 brackets
13/16: 30 brackets
12/16: 58 brackets
11/16: 68 brackets
10/16: 44 brackets
9/16: 19 brackets
8/16: 13 brackets
7/16: 1 bracket

I am particularly interested in the tails of this distribution.  The person that only went 7/16 was Marissa W. #1.  That performance dropped her from 31st place yesterday all the way down to 228th today.  That was easily the drop of the day.  The rest of the top 5 droppers of the day were:

2. Todd K. #3 (8/16 - 31st to 211th)
3. Jack K. #2 (8/16 - 5th to 173rd)
4. Marissa W. #4 (8/16 - 67th to 210th)
5. Gary M. #2 (9/16 - 31st to 160th)

All in all, a pretty miserable day for Marissa W.  Good thing this tournament is only 1/6th finished.

On the flip side, there was only one person who made it to 15/16 today and that honor does to my lovely wife, Michelle L. #1.  Great picking sweetie.  It must run in the family, as her Mom is also near the top of the standings if you remember from earlier today.  I'd love to say that I helped, but I pretty much didn't, unless you can glean anything from all the basketball I watch (I doubt it).  It's all her.  Impressed.  Not only impressive that she picked so well, but she also is nice enough to let me hang out at my brother's place these last 2 days eating pizza and donuts and watching basketball for 15 hours a day.  She's pretty special that way.  :)

Despite the 15/16, she was only the 2nd in the biggest movers up the charts today.  The overall biggest mover up today goes to Mason A. #1.  Here are the top 5:

1. Mason A. #1 (14/16 - 189th to 32nd)
2. Michelle L. #1 (15/16 - 161st to 9th)
3. John M. #1 (14/16 - 209th to 61st)
4. Brett K. #2 (14/16 - 208th to 63rd)
5. Howard S. #3 (14/16 - 153rd to 19th)

Great picking by those people.  But there was some other good picking as before.  We completed the West bracket earlier today.  We finished the other 3 regions tonight.  Here are the number of totally perfect regions so far:

We only had one person go 8/8 in the South.  That honor goes to Brian G.  He managed to get Stephen F. Austin, Dayton and Stanford out of that region.  I'm really impressed with that.  If not for Duke, I would think this region would have been the hardest to call.

In the East, it was more chalky, as only Harvard scored an upset.  34 people managed to go 8/8 in this region.  We'll have to wait for the later rounds before that bracket gets busted more.  34 is pretty good for the first round.

We already went over the West, but for completeness, 7 people managed to go 8/8 in that region.

Finally, in the Midwest, no one managed to go 8/8.  It was actually worse than that as only 22 people would have gone 8/8 had Duke won.  That's a bit of a surprise as Tennessee was the only real upset outside of Mercer in this region.  I guess people had a hard time picking the right upset in this region.  Interesting.....

For some perspective, I looked at last years picks.  The eventual winner had 23 correct and the top picker had only 26 correct picks.  This year that would have gotten you somewhere between 13th and 31st, so either we got better at picking games or the bracket was easier to predict.  I think it's probably the latter.

So.... Here are the rankings:

1. Chad L. #2: 28 (-8)

2. Josh S. #2: 28 (-18)

3. Virginia L. #2: 27 (-5)

4. Ryan H.: 27 (-9)

5. Mason A. #4: 27 (-11)

5. Josh C.: 27 (-11)

5. Todd K. #2: 27 (-11)

8. Mike L. #1: 27 (-15)

9. Michelle L. #1: 27 (-19)

10. Greg F.: 27 (-21)

11. Carrie P. #1: 27 (-35)

12. Brett K. #1: 27 (-41)

13. Jay H. #1: 26 (-6)

14. Ally H.: 26 (-8)

14. Mike L. #2: 26 (-8)

16. Stephanie P. #3: 26 (-10)

17. Robert H. #2: 26 (-12)

17. Daisy N. #5: 26 (-12)

19. Amelia H.: 26 (-14)

19. Amos W.: 26 (-14)

19. Daryl J.: 26 (-14)

19. Howard S. #3: 26 (-14)

19. KenPom: 26 (-14)

19. Matt N.: 26 (-14)

19. Peter J. #1: 26 (-14)

26. Scott K. #1: 26 (-16)

26. Scott K. #2: 26 (-16)

28. Mike L. #3: 26 (-18)

29. Christina S. #1: 26 (-22)

30. Karen C. #1: 26 (-24)

31. Carrie P. #3: 26 (-42)

32. David S. #1: 25 (-9)

32. Howard S. #2: 25 (-9)

32. Larry G. #1: 25 (-9)

32. Mason A. #1: 25 (-9)

32. Rich F.: 25 (-9)

37. Brett W.: 25 (-11)

37. Ben W.: 25 (-11)

37. Dennis R. #3: 25 (-11)

37. Mark N. #1: 25 (-11)

37. Miguel D.: 25 (-11)

37. Paul W.: 25 (-11)

37. Peter J. #2: 25 (-11)

44. Christina S. #4: 25 (-13)

44. David S. #3: 25 (-13)

44. Gene B. #1: 25 (-13)

44. Howard S. #4: 25 (-13)

44. Karen C. #2: 25 (-13)

49. Brent S. #1: 25 (-15)

49. Chun W. #4: 25 (-15)

49. Damien R. #1: 25 (-15)

49. Eric V.: 25 (-15)

49. Jay H. #3: 25 (-15)

49. Luis B. #3: 25 (-15)

49. Ray W. #1: 25 (-15)

56. Ryan G.: 25 (-17)

56. Scott Her. #2: 25 (-17)

58. Tomas L. #1: 25 (-19)

59. Damien R. #2: 25 (-25)

59. Ray W. #3: 25 (-25)

61. John M. #1: 25 (-27)

62. Todd K. #1: 25 (-31)

63. Brett K. #2: 25 (-37)

63. Damien R. #3: 25 (-37)

63. Jack K. #1: 25 (-37)

66. Chad L. #1: 25 (-39)

66. Alex T.: 25 (-39)

68. Carl B.: 25 (-41)

68. Larry G. #4: 25 (-41)

70. Missy W. #2: 25 (-49)

71. Dan D. #1: 25 (-71)

72. Steve M. #3: 24 (-10)

72. Andrea A.: 24 (-10)

72. Gutless Dimitris: 24 (-10)

72. Luis B. #2: 24 (-10)

72. Marc R. #2: 24 (-10)

72. Stephanie P. #2: 24 (-10)

72. Taima B. #1: 24 (-10)

72. Tomas L. #4: 24 (-10)

80. Daisy N. #2: 24 (-12)

80. Brent E. #3: 24 (-12)

80. Daisy N. #1: 24 (-12)

80. Gary W.: 24 (-12)

80. Kirt R.: 24 (-12)

80. Marc R. #1: 24 (-12)

80. Marissa W. #2: 24 (-12)

80. Mike San #2: 24 (-12)

80. Virginia L. #1: 24 (-12)

89. Carrie P. #4: 24 (-14)

89. Christina S. #6: 24 (-14)

89. Abel R.: 24 (-14)

89. Howard S. #1: 24 (-14)

89. Hutch H. #2: 24 (-14)

89. Jay K.: 24 (-14)

89. Jim W.: 24 (-14)

89. Stan C. #2: 24 (-14)

89. Stephanie P. #4: 24 (-14)

89. Taima B. #2: 24 (-14)

99. Chris M. #3: 24 (-16)

99. Christina S. #5: 24 (-16)

99. Josh S. #1: 24 (-16)

99. Steve M. #2: 24 (-16)

103. Scott Hass.: 24 (-18)

103. William G. #2: 24 (-18)

105. Michelle L. #3: 24 (-20)

106. Chad C.: 24 (-22)

107. Brian G.: 24 (-24)

107. Justin G.: 24 (-24)

109. Steve D.: 24 (-28)

110. Mike Sm.: 24 (-34)

111. Larry G. #2: 24 (-38)

112. Dominic M.: 24 (-46)

113. Mike San #1: 24 (-72)

114. John E.: 23 (-11)

114. Kansas C.: 23 (-11)

114. Ben J. #3: 23 (-11)

114. Jack K. #4: 23 (-11)

114. Joseph H.: 23 (-11)

114. Julie S.: 23 (-11)

114. Sarah G.: 23 (-11)

121. Adam E. #1: 23 (-13)

121. Robert H. #1: 23 (-13)

121. Andrzej R.: 23 (-13)

121. April K.: 23 (-13)

121. Brent E. #6: 23 (-13)

121. Erica A.: 23 (-13)

121. James G. #2: 23 (-13)

121. Ray W. #4: 23 (-13)

129. Daisy N. #3: 23 (-15)

129. James K.: 23 (-15)

129. Chun W. #3: 23 (-15)

132. Hal R. #1: 23 (-17)

132. Christina S. #3: 23 (-17)

132. Chun W. #1: 23 (-17)

132. Mark N. #2: 23 (-17)

136. Dan D. #2: 23 (-19)

136. James G. #1: 23 (-19)

136. Jeff D.: 23 (-19)

136. Josiah T. #5: 23 (-19)

136. Scott Her. #1: 23 (-19)

141. Klei R. #1: 23 (-21)

141. Amy D.: 23 (-21)

143. Brent E. #4: 23 (-23)

143. Tomas L. #2: 23 (-23)

145. Irene L. #1: 23 (-25)

145. Chris M. #1: 23 (-25)

145. Chun W. #2: 23 (-25)

145. Dimitris M. #5: 23 (-25)

149. Roth W.: 23 (-27)

150. Meredith R.: 23 (-29)

151. Gary M. #1: 23 (-31)

151. Peter J. #4: 23 (-31)

153. Chris M. #2: 23 (-33)

153. Matt J. #2: 23 (-33)

155. Elena S.: 23 (-35)

156. Dimitris M. #2: 23 (-39)

157. William G. #1: 23 (-43)

158. Bosun S.: 23 (-75)

159. Adam E. #2: 23 (-97)

160. Gary M. #2: 22 (-12)

160. Luis B. #1: 22 (-12)

160. Esteban D.: 22 (-12)

160. Tracy V.: 22 (-12)

160. Zachary V.: 22 (-12)

165. Daisy N. #4: 22 (-14)

165. Steve H.: 22 (-14)

165. Dennis R. #1: 22 (-14)

165. Hal R. #2: 22 (-14)

165. Stan C. #1: 22 (-14)

170. Ava S.: 22 (-16)

171. Ben J. #2: 22 (-18)

171. Jim D. #1: 22 (-18)

173. Chris L. #1: 22 (-20)

173. Jack K. #2: 22 (-20)

173. Ben J. #1: 22 (-20)

173. Matt J. #3: 22 (-20)

177. Chris L. #2: 22 (-22)

177. Karen C. #3: 22 (-22)

177. Tomas L. #3: 22 (-22)

180. Josiah T. #1: 22 (-24)

181. William G. #4: 22 (-26)

181. Klei R. #2: 22 (-26)

183. Matt J. #4: 22 (-28)

184. Sue L.: 22 (-30)

185. Dan S.: 22 (-34)

186. David S. #2: 22 (-42)

187. Mason A. #2: 22 (-56)

188. Stephanie P. #1: 22 (-76)

189. Jack K. #3: 22 (-96)

190. John M. #2: 22 (-102)

191. Brent E. #2: 21 (-13)

191. Peter J. #3: 21 (-13)

193. Josiah T. #2: 21 (-15)

193. Michelle L. #4: 21 (-15)

195. Bhav R.: 21 (-17)

195. Joe K. #2: 21 (-17)

195. Peter J. #5: 21 (-17)

198. Joe K. #1: 21 (-19)

198. Hutch H. #1: 21 (-19)

198. Kyle V.: 21 (-19)

198. Michelle L. #2: 21 (-19)

198. Terry F. #1: 21 (-19)

203. Chris L. #3: 21 (-21)

203. Ron B.: 21 (-21)

203. Shawn S.B.: 21 (-21)

206. Matt J. #1: 21 (-23)

206. Terry F. #2: 21 (-23)

208. Irene L. #2: 21 (-27)

208. William G. #3: 21 (-27)

210. Marissa W. #4: 21 (-29)

211. Todd K. #3: 21 (-33)

211. Carrie P. #2: 21 (-33)

211. Mason A. #3: 21 (-33)

214. Missy W. #1: 21 (-35)

215. Josiah T. #3: 21 (-41)

216. Brent S. #2: 21 (-77)

217. Ray W. #2: 20 (-14)

218. Jim D. #2: 20 (-16)

219. Becky H.: 20 (-18)

219. Christina S. #2: 20 (-18)

221. Brent E. #5: 20 (-22)

222. Eric C.: 20 (-24)

222. Marissa W. #3: 20 (-24)

224. Jeff W.: 20 (-26)

224. Brad R.: 20 (-26)

226. Karl K.: 20 (-28)

227. Dennis R. #2: 20 (-30)

228. Marissa W. #1: 20 (-32)

229. Josiah T. #4: 20 (-34)

230. Dimitris M. #3: 20 (-40)

231. Dimitris M. #4: 20 (-72)

232. Klei R. - RND: 20 (-84)

233. Klei - Alex O.: 19 (-15)

234. Tim N.: 19 (-21)

235. Chris M. #4: 19 (-23)

235. Larry G. #3: 19 (-23)

235. Brent E. #1: 19 (-23)

235. Jay H. #2: 19 (-23)

239. Steve M. #1: 19 (-27)

240. Kevin W.: 19 (-41)

241. Todd K. #4: 18 (-22)

242. Stephanie P. #5: 18 (-36)

243. Gene B. #2: 18 (-58)

244. Sally R.: 17 (-27)

245. Steve M. #4: 17 (-79)

246. David S. #4: 16 (-32)

Chad L. #2 keeps his lead at the top.  Amazingly, only 2 people managed to make it through the opening round without losing a Sweet 16 team.  Those two good pickers were Virginia L. #2 and Jay H. #1.  I think that's where you want to be.  Speaking of which, I calculated the net points.  I get this number by adding the points you've won and subtracting the points you've lost.  Obviously the more points you have, the healthier your bracket is, and is probably a little more representative of just which brackets are in good shape and which aren't.  For example, Brett K.#1 is currently 12th in points, but with Duke in the Championship game, he has lost a ton of points and is 215th in net points because of it.

Here are the standings there:

1. Virginia L. #2 (22)

2. Chad L. #2 (20)

2. Jay H. #1 (20)

4. Ryan H. (18)

4. Ally H. (18)

4. Mike L. #2 (18)

7. Mason A. #4 (16)

7. Josh C. (16)

7. Todd K. #2 (16)

7. Stephanie P. #3 (16)

7. David S. #1 (16)

7. Howard S. #2 (16)

7. Larry G. #1 (16)

7. Mason A. #1 (16)

7. Rich F. (16)

16. Robert H. #2 (14)

16. Daisy N. #5 (14)

16. Brett W. (14)

16. Ben W. (14)

16. Dennis R. #3 (14)

16. Mark N. #1 (14)

16. Miguel D. (14)

16. Paul W. (14)

16. Peter J. #2 (14)

16. Steve M. #3 (14)

16. Andrea A. (14)

16. Gutless Dimitris (14)

16. Luis B. #2 (14)

16. Marc R. #2 (14)

16. Stephanie P. #2 (14)

16. Taima B. #1 (14)

16. Tomas L. #4 (14)

33. Mike L. #1 (12)

33. Amelia H. (12)

33. Amos W. (12)

33. Daryl J. (12)

33. Howard S. #3 (12)

33. KenPom (12)

33. Matt N. (12)

33. Peter J. #1 (12)

33. Christina S. #4 (12)

33. David S. #3 (12)

33. Gene B. #1 (12)

33. Howard S. #4 (12)

33. Karen C. #2 (12)

33. Daisy N. #2 (12)

33. Brent E. #3 (12)

33. Daisy N. #1 (12)

33. Gary W. (12)

33. Kirt R. (12)

33. Marc R. #1 (12)

33. Marissa W. #2 (12)

33. Mike San #2 (12)

33. Virginia L. #1 (12)

33. John E. (12)

33. Kansas C. (12)

33. Ben J. #3 (12)

33. Jack K. #4 (12)

33. Joseph H. (12)

33. Julie S. (12)

33. Sarah G. (12)

62. Josh S. #2 (10)

62. Scott K. #1 (10)

62. Scott K. #2 (10)

62. Brent S. #1 (10)

62. Chun W. #4 (10)

62. Damien R. #1 (10)

62. Eric V. (10)

62. Jay H. #3 (10)

62. Luis B. #3 (10)

62. Ray W. #1 (10)

62. Carrie P. #4 (10)

62. Christina S. #6 (10)

62. Abel R. (10)

62. Howard S. #1 (10)

62. Hutch H. #2 (10)

62. Jay K. (10)

62. Jim W. (10)

62. Stan C. #2 (10)

62. Stephanie P. #4 (10)

62. Taima B. #2 (10)

62. Adam E. #1 (10)

62. Robert H. #1 (10)

62. Andrzej R. (10)

62. April K. (10)

62. Brent E. #6 (10)

62. Erica A. (10)

62. James G. #2 (10)

62. Ray W. #4 (10)

62. Gary M. #2 (10)

62. Luis B. #1 (10)

62. Esteban D. (10)

62. Tracy V. (10)

62. Zachary V. (10)

95. Michelle L. #1 (8)

95. Mike L. #3 (8)

95. Ryan G. (8)

95. Scott Her. #2 (8)

95. Chris M. #3 (8)

95. Christina S. #5 (8)

95. Josh S. #1 (8)

95. Steve M. #2 (8)

95. Daisy N. #3 (8)

95. James K. (8)

95. Chun W. #3 (8)

95. Daisy N. #4 (8)

95. Steve H. (8)

95. Dennis R. #1 (8)

95. Hal R. #2 (8)

95. Stan C. #1 (8)

95. Brent E. #2 (8)

95. Peter J. #3 (8)

113. Greg F. (6)

113. Tomas L. #1 (6)

113. Scott Hass. (6)

113. William G. #2 (6)

113. Hal R. #1 (6)

113. Christina S. #3 (6)

113. Chun W. #1 (6)

113. Mark N. #2 (6)

113. Ava S. (6)

113. Josiah T. #2 (6)

113. Michelle L. #4 (6)

113. Ray W. #2 (6)

125. Christina S. #1 (4)

125. Michelle L. #3 (4)

125. Dan D. #2 (4)

125. James G. #1 (4)

125. Jeff D. (4)

125. Josiah T. #5 (4)

125. Scott Her. #1 (4)

125. Ben J. #2 (4)

125. Jim D. #1 (4)

125. Bhav R. (4)

125. Joe K. #2 (4)

125. Peter J. #5 (4)

125. Jim D. #2 (4)

125. Klei - Alex O. (4)

139. Karen C. #1 (2)

139. Chad C. (2)

139. Klei R. #1 (2)

139. Amy D. (2)

139. Chris L. #1 (2)

139. Jack K. #2 (2)

139. Ben J. #1 (2)

139. Matt J. #3 (2)

139. Joe K. #1 (2)

139. Hutch H. #1 (2)

139. Kyle V. (2)

139. Michelle L. #2 (2)

139. Terry F. #1 (2)

139. Becky H. (2)

139. Christina S. #2 (2)

154. Damien R. #2 (0)

154. Ray W. #3 (0)

154. Brian G. (0)

154. Justin G. (0)

154. Brent E. #4 (0)

154. Tomas L. #2 (0)

154. Chris L. #2 (0)

154. Karen C. #3 (0)

154. Tomas L. #3 (0)

154. Chris L. #3 (0)

154. Ron B. (0)

154. Shawn S.B. (0)

166. John M. #1 (-2)

166. Irene L. #1 (-2)

166. Chris M. #1 (-2)

166. Chun W. #2 (-2)

166. Dimitris M. #5 (-2)

166. Josiah T. #1 (-2)

166. Matt J. #1 (-2)

166. Terry F. #2 (-2)

166. Brent E. #5 (-2)

166. Tim N. (-2)

176. Steve D. (-4)

176. Roth W. (-4)

176. William G. #4 (-4)

176. Klei R. #2 (-4)

176. Eric C. (-4)

176. Marissa W. #3 (-4)

176. Chris M. #4 (-4)

176. Larry G. #3 (-4)

176. Brent E. #1 (-4)

176. Jay H. #2 (-4)

176. Todd K. #4 (-4)

187. Todd K. #1 (-6)

187. Meredith R. (-6)

187. Matt J. #4 (-6)

187. Irene L. #2 (-6)

187. William G. #3 (-6)

187. Jeff W. (-6)

187. Brad R. (-6)

194. Carrie P. #1 (-8)

194. Gary M. #1 (-8)

194. Peter J. #4 (-8)

194. Sue L. (-8)

194. Marissa W. #4 (-8)

194. Karl K. (-8)

194. Steve M. #1 (-8)

201. Mike Sm. (-10)

201. Chris M. #2 (-10)

201. Matt J. #2 (-10)

201. Dennis R. #2 (-10)

201. Sally R. (-10)

206. Brett K. #2 (-12)

206. Damien R. #3 (-12)

206. Jack K. #1 (-12)

206. Elena S. (-12)

206. Dan S. (-12)

206. Todd K. #3 (-12)

206. Carrie P. #2 (-12)

206. Mason A. #3 (-12)

206. Marissa W. #1 (-12)

215. Brett K. #1 (-14)

215. Chad L. #1 (-14)

215. Alex T. (-14)

215. Larry G. #2 (-14)

215. Missy W. #1 (-14)

215. Josiah T. #4 (-14)

221. Carrie P. #3 (-16)

221. Carl B. (-16)

221. Larry G. #4 (-16)

221. Dimitris M. #2 (-16)

221. David S. #4 (-16)

226. Stephanie P. #5 (-18)

227. William G. #1 (-20)

227. David S. #2 (-20)

227. Josiah T. #3 (-20)

227. Dimitris M. #3 (-20)

231. Dominic M. (-22)

231. Kevin W. (-22)

233. Missy W. #2 (-24)

234. Mason A. #2 (-34)

235. Gene B. #2 (-40)

236. Dan D. #1 (-46)

237. Mike San #1 (-48)

238. Bosun S. (-52)

238. Dimitris M. #4 (-52)

240. Stephanie P. #1 (-54)

241. Brent S. #2 (-56)

242. Steve M. #4 (-62)

243. Klei R. - RND (-64)

244. Adam E. #2 (-74)

244. Jack K. #3 (-74)

246. John M. #2 (-80)

I also want to take a second to call out Ally H. who has been lurking around the top of the standings for the last 2 days.  I'm always a big fan of hers, as she is my friends daughter.  I hope she's enjoying the games and continues to do well.

But there are more games tomorrow.  These are worth 2 points each, so I'm guessing the standings are going to continue to get jumbled up.  They are staggering the start times, so they are a little weird, but I'll start out with the first two.

Here's the distribution of the picks for the first two games of the day:

Florida: 238
Pittsburgh: 5
Other: 3

Louisville: 217
St. Louis: 17
Other: 12

So it looks like almost everyone has a skin in the game in both instances.  I (as usual) will be pulling for upsets.  The difference will be that I will be doing it from the privacy of my own home.  I've been my brother's guest for the last 2 days, and it has been a great time.  He's got a great set up for watching all the games, and I appreciate that he lets me hang out there for a few days.  I really enjoy it.

Also, starting tomorrow, I can start filling in the Sweet 16 which means that calculating probabilities of winning is not far out.  I wrote some code to hopefully make that go a little quicker.  I'm anxious to see how well that works.  I hope it doesn't overwhelm my computer.  :)

Good luck to everyone!!!  More games tomorrow!!!!!!