Sweet 16 - 14 teams in

This was a little bit of a lull in the basketball day, as both games were both pretty lousy.  Baylor scored a huge win over Creighton in a game that didn't even seem as close as the 30 point difference would indicate.  Stephen F Austin was a little closer, but at one point during the game the announcers said that the biggest problem UCLA may have is apathy towards the game they were playing.  That's not good.

There are 2 games left today, and they belong to #1 seeds, and they are currently double digit leads for the #1 seeds.  If that holds, it will be a pretty boring finish to a pretty spectacular weekend of basketball.

Here's the distribution of the points based on 6 games finished:

5/6:  2 brackets (Marissa W. #2, Mason A. #1)
4/6: 13 brackets
3/6: 56 brackets
2/6: 99 brackets
1/6: 58 brackets
0/6: 18 brackets

That is an average of 3.95 points out of 12.  Yikes.  That's low.....

Here are the standings:

1. Chad L. #2: 48 (-16)

2. Ray W. #1: 47 (-17)

3. Greg F.: 47 (-33)

4. Marissa W. #2: 46 (-20)

5. Scott K. #2: 46 (-108)

6. Mason A. #1: 45 (-19)

7. Ryan H.: 45 (-31)

8. Howard S. #3: 44 (-20)

9. Chris M. #3: 44 (-24)

9. Jay K.: 44 (-24)

11. Ally H.: 44 (-28)

12. Stephanie P. #3: 44 (-48)

13. Larry G. #2: 44 (-52)

14. Peter J. #1: 44 (-54)

14. Dominic M.: 44 (-54)

16. Carrie P. #3: 44 (-60)

17. Jay H. #1: 44 (-88)

18. James G. #1: 43 (-21)

18. Ron B.: 43 (-21)

18. Mark N. #1: 43 (-21)

21. Scott Her. #2: 43 (-25)

21. Damien R. #1: 43 (-25)

21. David S. #3: 43 (-25)

21. Mike L. #1: 43 (-25)

25. Paul W.: 43 (-29)

26. Andrzej R.: 43 (-33)

26. Todd K. #2: 43 (-33)

26. Ray W. #3: 43 (-33)

26. Miguel D.: 43 (-33)

30. Brett K. #2: 43 (-41)

31. Michelle L. #1: 43 (-53)

31. Brett K. #1: 43 (-53)

31. Carrie P. #1: 43 (-53)

34. Damien R. #3: 43 (-61)

35. Virginia L. #2: 43 (-85)

36. Josh C.: 43 (-109)

37. Luis B. #2: 42 (-22)

37. Zachary V.: 42 (-22)

37. Hal R. #2: 42 (-22)

40. Gary W.: 42 (-26)

41. Matt N.: 42 (-30)

41. Tomas L. #4: 42 (-30)

41. Daisy N. #5: 42 (-30)

41. Robert H. #2: 42 (-30)

41. Mike L. #3: 42 (-30)

46. Christina S. #1: 42 (-42)

46. Josh S. #1: 42 (-42)

48. Amos W.: 42 (-82)

49. Klei R. #1: 41 (-23)

49. Rich F.: 41 (-23)

51. Hal R. #1: 41 (-27)

51. Ray W. #4: 41 (-27)

51. Brent S. #1: 41 (-27)

54. Tomas L. #1: 41 (-31)

55. Chun W. #2: 41 (-35)

55. Erica A.: 41 (-35)

55. Luis B. #3: 41 (-35)

55. Mason A. #4: 41 (-35)

55. Brent E. #6: 41 (-35)

60. Chun W. #3: 41 (-39)

60. Damien R. #2: 41 (-39)

62. Eric V.: 41 (-43)

63. Todd K. #3: 41 (-47)

64. Karen C. #2: 41 (-83)

65. Howard S. #2: 41 (-87)

66. Alex T.: 41 (-123)

67. Taima B. #1: 40 (-24)

67. Scott Hass.: 40 (-24)

67. Scott K. #1: 40 (-24)

70. Andrea A.: 40 (-26)

71. Christina S. #5: 40 (-28)

71. Jim W.: 40 (-28)

71. Marc R. #2: 40 (-28)

71. Mike L. #2: 40 (-28)

71. Ben J. #1: 40 (-28)

71. Stephanie P. #4: 40 (-28)

71. Steve D.: 40 (-28)

78. Brent E. #3: 40 (-30)

79. Daisy N. #1: 40 (-32)

79. Taima B. #2: 40 (-32)

79. Daryl J.: 40 (-32)

79. Stan C. #2: 40 (-32)

83. KenPom: 40 (-36)

84. Josh S. #2: 40 (-40)

84. Gutless Dimitris: 40 (-40)

84. Stephanie P. #2: 40 (-40)

87. Mike Sm.: 40 (-42)

88. William G. #2: 40 (-44)

89. Virginia L. #1: 40 (-52)

90. Justin G.: 40 (-62)

91. Kirt R.: 40 (-92)

91. Mike San #2: 40 (-92)

93. Mike San #1: 40 (-96)

94. Joe K. #2: 39 (-25)

94. Josiah T. #2: 39 (-25)

96. Gene B. #1: 39 (-29)

96. Joseph H.: 39 (-29)

96. John E.: 39 (-29)

96. Brett W.: 39 (-29)

96. April K.: 39 (-29)

96. Larry G. #1: 39 (-29)

102. Sarah G.: 39 (-33)

102. Chun W. #4: 39 (-33)

104. Brent E. #4: 39 (-35)

105. Ben W.: 39 (-37)

106. Julie S.: 39 (-41)

106. David S. #1: 39 (-41)

106. Chun W. #1: 39 (-41)

109. Peter J. #5: 39 (-47)

110. Mason A. #3: 39 (-53)

110. Peter J. #2: 39 (-53)

112. Jay H. #3: 39 (-57)

112. Jack K. #1: 39 (-57)

112. Jack K. #4: 39 (-57)

115. Larry G. #4: 39 (-61)

115. Dennis R. #3: 39 (-61)

117. Chris M. #2: 39 (-65)

118. Missy W. #2: 39 (-69)

119. Dan D. #1: 39 (-101)

120. Mark N. #2: 39 (-125)

121. Peter J. #4: 39 (-127)

122. Tomas L. #3: 38 (-30)

122. Luis B. #1: 38 (-30)

122. Marc R. #1: 38 (-30)

122. Matt J. #3: 38 (-30)

126. Daisy N. #4: 38 (-34)

126. Amelia H.: 38 (-34)

128. Tracy V.: 38 (-38)

128. Carrie P. #4: 38 (-38)

130. Dan S.: 38 (-40)

131. Stan C. #1: 38 (-42)

132. Chris L. #1: 38 (-56)

133. Karl K.: 38 (-60)

134. Christina S. #6: 38 (-62)

135. Karen C. #3: 38 (-66)

135. Daisy N. #2: 38 (-66)

137. Chad C.: 38 (-70)

138. Brian G.: 38 (-74)

138. Steve M. #2: 38 (-74)

140. Michelle L. #3: 38 (-98)

141. Abel R.: 38 (-122)

142. Scott Her. #1: 37 (-31)

142. James G. #2: 37 (-31)

142. Peter J. #3: 37 (-31)

142. Ben J. #3: 37 (-31)

142. Matt J. #1: 37 (-31)

142. Ryan G.: 37 (-31)

148. Roth W.: 37 (-35)

148. Jeff D.: 37 (-35)

150. Brent E. #2: 37 (-39)

151. Dimitris M. #5: 37 (-43)

151. Todd K. #1: 37 (-43)

151. William G. #3: 37 (-43)

154. Christina S. #3: 37 (-55)

154. Michelle L. #4: 37 (-55)

156. Carl B.: 37 (-59)

156. William G. #1: 37 (-59)

158. Christina S. #4: 37 (-71)

158. Gary M. #1: 37 (-71)

160. Brent S. #2: 37 (-87)

161. Bosun S.: 37 (-91)

162. Adam E. #2: 37 (-101)

162. Joe K. #1: 37 (-101)

164. Dimitris M. #2: 37 (-119)

165. Kansas C.: 37 (-127)

166. Chad L. #1: 37 (-139)

167. Becky H.: 36 (-28)

168. Esteban D.: 36 (-32)

168. Brent E. #5: 36 (-32)

168. Jack K. #2: 36 (-32)

171. Josiah T. #1: 36 (-36)

171. Gary M. #2: 36 (-36)

173. Jim D. #1: 36 (-40)

173. Steve M. #3: 36 (-40)

173. Christina S. #2: 36 (-40)

176. Matt J. #4: 36 (-48)

177. Ben J. #2: 36 (-60)

177. Howard S. #1: 36 (-60)

179. David S. #2: 36 (-68)

180. Sue L.: 36 (-80)

181. Stephanie P. #1: 36 (-92)

182. Jack K. #3: 36 (-106)

183. Klei - Alex O.: 35 (-33)

184. Josiah T. #5: 35 (-37)

185. Shawn S.B.: 35 (-39)

186. Sally R.: 35 (-41)

187. Chris M. #1: 35 (-45)

188. Dan D. #2: 35 (-49)

188. Irene L. #1: 35 (-49)

190. Robert H. #1: 35 (-61)

191. James K.: 35 (-69)

191. Meredith R.: 35 (-69)

193. Howard S. #4: 35 (-89)

194. Hutch H. #1: 35 (-93)

195. Adam E. #1: 35 (-101)

196. Amy D.: 35 (-117)

197. Daisy N. #3: 35 (-129)

198. Eric C.: 34 (-36)

198. Brad R.: 34 (-36)

198. Josiah T. #4: 34 (-36)

201. Hutch H. #2: 34 (-50)

201. Steve H.: 34 (-50)

203. Karen C. #1: 34 (-62)

204. William G. #4: 34 (-66)

205. Dimitris M. #4: 34 (-74)

206. Brent E. #1: 33 (-31)

206. Tim N.: 33 (-31)

208. Tomas L. #2: 33 (-47)

208. Bhav R.: 33 (-47)

210. Josiah T. #3: 33 (-55)

211. Matt J. #2: 33 (-59)

212. John M. #1: 33 (-79)

213. Terry F. #2: 33 (-103)

214. Larry G. #3: 33 (-117)

215. Ray W. #2: 32 (-40)

215. Jim D. #2: 32 (-40)

217. Chris L. #2: 32 (-52)

218. Marissa W. #3: 32 (-62)

219. Gene B. #2: 32 (-64)

220. Jeff W.: 32 (-66)

221. Klei R. #2: 32 (-68)

221. Ava S.: 32 (-68)

223. Mason A. #2: 32 (-70)

224. Dennis R. #1: 32 (-116)

225. Marissa W. #1: 32 (-118)

226. Jay H. #2: 31 (-37)

227. Michelle L. #2: 31 (-41)

228. Kyle V.: 31 (-49)

229. Steve M. #1: 31 (-55)

230. Chris M. #4: 31 (-57)

231. Marissa W. #4: 31 (-61)

232. Missy W. #1: 31 (-133)

233. Stephanie P. #5: 30 (-44)

234. Todd K. #4: 30 (-70)

235. John M. #2: 30 (-154)

236. Irene L. #2: 29 (-71)

237. Carrie P. #2: 29 (-91)

238. Terry F. #1: 29 (-103)

239. Elena S.: 29 (-115)

240. Klei R. - RND: 28 (-116)

241. Dennis R. #2: 28 (-142)

241. Dimitris M. #3: 28 (-142)

243. Kevin W.: 27 (-89)

244. Chris L. #3: 27 (-129)

245. David S. #4: 26 (-130)

246. Steve M. #4: 25 (-149)

For those that are familiar with my pools, I'll keep track of the points, but I'll be converting the standings after the Sweet 16 is established.  I will be able to calculate the probabilities of winning for each of the brackets, so I will be ranking brackets based on the probability of winning.

I do this by figuring all 2^15 different ways the tournament can play out, and calculating the winners in each of those scenarios.  The trick is that I don't weight the scenarios, so a Florida / Arizona final is just as likely as a Baylor / Dayton final, so take some of the numbers with a grain of salt.  Just know that as long as your probability is > 0, you still have a mathematical chance of winning.

I also can figure out the eliminations based on any game or combination of games.  Before each game, I will announce what brackets are in jeopardy of being eliminated from the various contentions (1st, 2nd, etc...).  That way you know just what you need.

There's more that I want to calculate, but I ran out of time last year.  This year, I hope to have more time as I've programmed some of the more cumbersome calculations.  With any luck, that time savings will allow me to do more analyses.  We'll see.

Here are the picks for the last 2 games:

Virginia: 214
Memphis: 21
Other: 11

Arizona: 219
Gonzaga: 9
Other: 18

Good Luck to everyone!!!!!!