Posts
Can I start out by saying that the Georgia / Florida State game was exactly what the NCAA was courting when they allowed the transfer portal to be when it is and only had 4 teams eligible to win the National Championship. Once Florida State players found out that they were quasi-screwed out of a chance to play for the National Championship, guys just started opting out left and right. I feel like the you could’ve put a .500 MAC team out there against Georgia in that game and it would have been more competitive. Not sure how many of you watched it until the end (The Orange Bowl and ESPN thanks you if you did), but they mentioned that this was the biggest score difference in Bowl game history. So, for 50+ years, or however long they’ve been playing bowl games, no team has ever beaten another team by so many points. Bang up job you did there, NCAA. Really, keep up the good work. You’re doing great.
The better game looked like it was in the Arizona Bowl,
where Wyoming won on a last-second FG.
Unfortunately, it was on the CW, so I didn’t bother looking up what
channel that was, and read my book this afternoon instead.
The upshot of all this is that Dennis righted the ship
somewhat, and he is back on top of the probabilities of winning. Not only that, but based on a technicality,
Dennis R. is going to finish in the money this year. Let me explain:
If you add up Dennis R.’s probabilities to win 1st,
2nd and 3rd, you get 98.44%. That means there is only one scenario
possible where he finishes outside of the top 3. It is this:
|
Reliaquest |
Wisconsin |
|
Citrus |
Iowa |
|
Fiesta |
Liberty |
|
Rose |
Alabama |
|
Sugar |
Washington |
|
Championship Game |
Alabama |
I believe this would be an entire run of upsets, so I’m not
thinking this will happen, but if it does, the top 4 places will end like this:
|
Name |
Points |
|
Ally H. |
576 |
|
Steve M. #1 |
572 |
|
Moochi the Man |
567 |
|
Dennis R. |
565 |
The technicality is this – Steve M. #1 and Moochi the Man
are the same person, and I have a rule that states that no one person can get
more than one payout. In this instance,
Steve M. would get paid out for 2nd, and Dennis R. would get paid
out for 3rd. The reason for
this is because unlike March Madness, it is entirely possible to corner the
market at the top of the standings with similar picks – and that’s not really
fair to everyone playing. So even though,
technically, he is finishing 4th, he still gets paid for 3rd. Congratulations Dennis R.! You are the first person to clinch one of the
payout spots. Which one is yet to be
determined, but you are definitely making money this season.
I also wanted to make a note of Matt Mal.’s picks. When I initially ran the numbers, he had a
0.24% chance of getting 1st place.
He then proceeded to make a run of 11 straight games where his odds went
up. He won most of those games, but in
at least 3 games he lost, but in losing increased his chances to get first
place because his pick was for fewer points relative to the average pick. It was only a last-second FG by Wyoming that
sent his chances for 1st crashing down. He’s still got a great chance of winning 3rd
place (>10%), but I wanted to call out that run since I honestly wasn’t
paying attention to his picks and then suddenly he was right near the top. Great run, Matt Mal.!
Here is the updated matrix:
|
Total |
1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
|
1. Dennis R.: 565 (-248) |
36.9792% |
38.5417% |
22.9167% |
|
2. Moochi the Man: 554 (-273) |
24.4792% |
19.7917% |
11.1979% |
|
3. Brian K.: 516 (-274) |
6.2500% |
14.0625% |
21.8750% |
|
5. Ally H.: 500 (-256) |
22.3958% |
3.6458% |
9.1146% |
|
6. Mike S.: 491 (-285) |
Initial |
9.3750% |
4.6875% |
|
4. Matt Mal.: 504 (-292) |
1.5625% |
1.5625% |
10.1563% |
|
7. Matt Mei.: 483 (-289) |
3.6458% |
2.0833% |
3.6458% |
|
8. Slave to Trends: 479 (-278) |
Auburn |
4.6875% |
3.1250% |
|
11. Steve M. #1: 464 (-342) |
1.5625% |
4.6875% |
Toledo |
|
34. Eric G.: 416 (-302) |
3.1250% |
Florida St. |
3.1250% |
|
10. Jason S.: 464 (-287) |
Initial |
Toledo |
5.4688% |
|
16. Amber the Beast: 455 (-331) |
Toledo |
1.5625% |
3.9063% |
|
9. Daniel E.: 467 (-300) |
SMU |
Iowa St. |
0.7813% |
|
12. Josaih T. #2: 463 (-328) |
Initial |
Oklahoma |
Iowa St. |
|
13. Matt N.: 460 (-327) |
Initial |
SMU |
NC State |
|
14. Josaih T. #1: 457 (-334) |
Miami |
Oklahoma |
Ohio St. |
|
15. Jay H. #2: 456 (-332) |
Initial |
NC State |
Kentucky |
|
17. Sally R.: 454 (-357) |
Florida St. |
Florida St. |
Florida St. |
|
18. Steve Dz.: 447 (-349) |
SMU |
Miami |
Oregon St. |
|
19. Klei R.: 445 (-321) |
Kentucky |
Ohio St. |
Ohio St. |
|
20. Sports Illustrated: 443 (-327) |
Initial |
SMU |
NC State |
|
21. Marc R. #1: 439 (-349) |
Oregon St. |
Penn St. |
Penn St. |
|
22. Andrew D.: 438 (-318) |
SMU |
SMU |
Auburn |
|
23. Mario M.: 436 (-310) |
Oklahoma |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
|
24. Brent E. #4: 436 (-337) |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
Penn St. |
|
25. Rich F.: 434 (-360) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
26. Dylan B.: 430 (-328) |
Initial |
NC State |
Iowa St. |
|
27. Michelle L. #1: 428 (-344) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
28. Mike N.: 424 (-333) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Ohio St. |
|
29. Jon F.: 422 (-357) |
Initial |
Initial |
SMU |
|
30. Brett W.: 417 (-351) |
Miami |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
|
31. CAAT #4: 417 (-352) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
31. CAAT #3: 417 (-352) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
31. CAAT #1: 417 (-352) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
35. Hutch H. #1: 416 (-368) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
36. Steve M. #2: 416 (-395) |
Florida St. |
Florida St. |
Florida St. |
|
37. Hutch H. #2: 413 (-371) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
38. CAAT #2: 412 (-357) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
39. Michelle L. #2: 411 (-350) |
Miami |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
|
40. Jay H. #1: 409 (-335) |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
Kentucky |
|
41. Brent E. #2: 409 (-362) |
SMU |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
|
41. Brent E. #3: 409 (-362) |
SMU |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
|
43. Brent E. #1: 406 (-351) |
Oklahoma |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
|
44. Tim N.: 392 (-317) |
Initial |
NC State |
Iowa St. |
|
45. Jim D.: 392 (-358) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Ohio St. |
|
46. Henry A.: 386 (-371) |
SMU |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
|
47. Pete J. #2: 385 (-401) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
48. Pete J. #1: 382 (-404) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
49. Paul Kr.: 381 (-347) |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Penn St. |
|
50. Scott H. #2: 380 (-386) |
Initial |
Initial |
SMU |
|
51. Mike W.: 380 (-396) |
Initial |
SMU |
Miami |
|
52. Faye N.: 376 (-380) |
Auburn |
Florida St. |
Florida St. |
|
53. Larry G.: 372 (-435) |
Initial |
SMU |
Miami |
|
54. Marc R. #2: 370 (-333) |
Oregon St. |
Penn St. |
Penn St. |
|
55. Jaxon S.: 366 (-348) |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Iowa St. |
|
56. CAAT #5: 361 (-408) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
57. Adam E.: 357 (-389) |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
Iowa St. |
|
58. Brad R.: 352 (-405) |
Initial |
Initial |
Oklahoma |
|
59. Carrie F.: 348 (-419) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
60. Damien R.: 346 (-425) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Iowa St. |
|
61. Becky H.: 343 (-372) |
NC State |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
|
62. Dan Du.: 340 (-406) |
SMU |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
|
63. Ryan W.: 337 (-412) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
|
64. Scott H. #1: 337 (-415) |
Miami |
NC State |
Oklahoma |
|
65. Charlotte N.: 329 (-385) |
Auburn |
Florida St. |
Florida St. |
|
66. Jim W.: 326 (-405) |
Initial |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
|
67. Howard S.: 322 (-429) |
Miami |
Miami |
Kentucky |
|
68. Kirt R.: 306 (-500) |
NC State |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
|
69. Max A. #1: 299 (-477) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
70. Max A. #2: 282 (-515) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
Everyone in my family is now out for all spots, so it’s either
a sad day or a glorious day, since they no longer have to care about any of
these bowl games. Tomorrow is an off day
for College football, and then 5 games on Monday. Sometimes, the last game is irrelevant in this
pool. I’m not sure whether I want that
or not. I’ll figure it out as we go.
Good Luck!!!!!
