Boxing Day Preview

Happy Boxing Day everyone!!!!  I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas.  I probably ate too many cookies and didn’t get home until pretty late due to the annual jigsaw puzzle making running a little long, but I don’t have to work today, so I recover and maybe even workout a little bit to assuage the guilt of all that sugar.

But there’s three games today.  That means after today, there will be 22 games left.  That’s still too many for Excel to handle, but after the 4 games tomorrow, I should be able to provide odds of winning.  I talked to my Mom a little bit about what her secret has been in picking the games so well, given that she hardly ever watches college football.  Her answer was that she was using the distance method – meaning “pick the team that ‘s closest to where the game is being played”, only “but not all the time”.  She didn’t look at all at the point spreads.  That “but not all the time” is what is making this method non-reproduceable.  My take is always to retcon the methodology by saying “Whatever way wins in the right strategy”, which is a kinder way of saying that no one knows anything.

Quick Lane Bowl

Vegas Line: Minnesota -3.5

Median Pick: Minnesota for 17 points

Average Pick: Minnesota for 12.4 points

Picks for Minnesota: 51 (Average Pick: 22.39 points).

Picks for Bowling Green: 19 (Average Pick: 14.42 points).

I am on record as saying that this is the 2nd worst Bowl game in the entirety of Bowl season.  My theory is that Bowl games are kind of like vacation spots that alumni can travel to because they are extra game, and theoretically a reward for a good season.  I can’t imagine too many people want to vacation in Boise, Idaho in December, which is why I think that bowl game is terrible.  The second worst is this game, since it is in Detroit.  I’ve spent a good deal of time in Detroit.  There are some pretty cool things to do there, but one thing it is not is warm in the winter.  The temperature is what I would call “biting”.  It’s hard for me to imagine that if I was an alumni for Minnesota or Bowling Green, I would be too excited about going to Detroit vs. Mobile or Ft. Lauderdale or New Orleans.

Also, this is a strange game since I think this is the only game that features a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is only in thi game despite not having 6 D1 wins because there weren’t enough D1 teams with 6 wins.  I would argue that maybe there are too many bowl games if this is what is happening.  I’m probably not going to win that argument.

First Responder Bowl

Vegas Line: Texas State -4.5

Median Pick: Texas State for 4 points

Average pick: Texas State for 2.5 points

Picks for Texas State: 39 (Average Pick: 18.05 points)

Picks for Rice: 31 (Average Pick: 14.71 points)

When I was typing this up, I was expecting the graph above to roughly be normally distributed.  It really isn’t.  People either like Rive or the like Texas State.  There is very little wishy-washiness to these picks.  That makes this game a little more intriguing.  Whoever wins this game is going to gain quite a bit on half the field.  This wasn’t a game that was high on my radar, but I’ll be curious to look back and see what kind of correlation there is with the points won on this game and the final rankings.

Now that I mention that, I bet it would be interesting to see what game is most highly correlated to the final rankings.  Theoretically, that would indicate what game was most important.  We’ll see if that is accurate.  It could just as easily point out which games was most important to people finishing last.  Hmmm..  I guess I’ll just have to run the analysis and find out.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl:

Vegas Line: Kansas -12.5

Median Pick: Kansas for 34 points

Average Pick: Kansas for 26.9 points

Picks for Kansas: 60 (Average Pick: 33.85 points)

Picks for UNLV: 10 (Average Pick: 13.60 points)

This looks like the “Everybody gets points” bowl.  It will be the bowl with the second most points wagered on it we have had so far.  The first was the 68 Ventures Bowl that ended with a 59-10 blowout.  This one seems like it might be destined to be that big of a blowout, although a 7 TD spread is probably unlikely.

OK.  That’s the 3 games today.  You can watch all of them or do whatever one does on Boxing Day.  I will be around all day providing updates.

Good Luck everyone!!!!!