Just before the Cotton Bowl

 I watched a little bit of the Liberty Bowl, and it was a little entertaining.  It currently stands as the 2^nd biggest upset of the Bowl season.  Normally, that would be a big deal, but at this point a lot of the teams that probably picked Memphis to win, and already dead.  As a result, if you were alive for 1^st going into the Liberty Bowl, you are still alive.  Only 1 person got knocked out of 2^nd place contention.  A lot of people got knocked out of 3^rd place, but I think that was more a consequence of being way behind in points and needing however many points you’d get from Iowa State to stay afloat.

Dennis R. dropped a little bit in his probability of winning, but he’s still above 50%, and Memphis winning actually helped his chances overall since it prevented other people from gaining ground on him.  As a result, after the Liberty Bowl, he now has a 91.65% chance to finish in one of the top 3 payout spots.  I haven’t figured out the math, but I bet he could clinch one of the spots after the last game of the day today if the right things happen.  If that happens, that doesn’t mean he is going to win, it just means that he’s going to finish in the top 3.

Here is the updated matrix:

Total	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Dennis R.: 503 (-158)	55.0618%	26.1068%	10.4818%
2. Moochi the Man: 499 (-249)	14.9984%	13.9730%	13.6556%
6. Brian K.: 436 (-217)	3.1250%	12.5488%	11.6130%
3. Ally H.: 442 (-213)	8.0973%	8.0729%	10.8724%
5. Slave to Trends: 437 (-207)	1.5137%	9.9121%	14.1602%
8. Amber the Beast: 421 (-254)	5.2002%	7.3975%	5.1676%
33. Eric G.: 356 (-200)	3.7598%	4.2725%	5.0537%
9. Steve M. #1: 413 (-268)	3.1006%	4.3945%	5.3141%
4. Sally R.: 442 (-266)	2.1729%	3.3691%	6.3965%
7. Mike S.: 435 (-255)	Initial	4.2236%	4.9479%
18. Matt Mal.: 387 (-251)	2.2217%	2.6855%	3.7109%
25. Steve M. #2: 374 (-331)	0.2930%	0.7568%	1.2207%
55. Marc R. #2: 297 (-231)	Oregon St.	0.5127%	1.5299%
32. Matt Mei.: 357 (-289)	0.2116%	0.4313%	0.8708%
13. Marc R. #1: 404 (-265)	Oregon St.	0.2686%	1.0254%
46. Charlotte N.: 329 (-284)	0.1709%	0.3418%	0.5127%
36. Faye N.: 352 (-303)	0.0732%	0.5127%	0.3906%
35. Andrew D.: 353 (-265)	SMU	SMU	0.7568%
10. Josaih T. #1: 409 (-277)	Miami	Oklahoma	0.6592%
14. Daniel E.: 404 (-288)	SMU	Iowa St.	0.6104%
11. Jason S.: 407 (-278)	Initial	0.1465%	0.3906%
19. Klei R.: 383 (-279)	Kentucky	0.0732%	0.2441%
27. Brent E. #4: 370 (-309)	Oregon St.	Oregon St.	0.2441%
47. Jim D.: 327 (-264)	SMU	Oklahoma	0.0977%
20. Mike N.: 382 (-291)	SMU	Oklahoma	0.0488%
59. Paul Kr.: 290 (-298)	Kentucky	Kentucky	0.0244%
12. Jay H. #2: 405 (-325)	Initial	NC State	Kentucky
15. Matt N.: 402 (-302)	Initial	SMU	NC State
16. Rich F.: 394 (-332)	Initial	Initial	Initial
17. Josaih T. #2: 393 (-293)	Initial	Oklahoma	Iowa St.
21. Dylan B.: 382 (-303)	Initial	NC State	Iowa St.
22. CAAT #4: 380 (-309)	Initial	SMU	SMU
22. CAAT #3: 380 (-309)	Initial	SMU	SMU
24. Steve Dz.: 380 (-316)	SMU	Miami	Oregon St.
26. Sports Illustrated: 372 (-299)	Initial	SMU	NC State
28. CAAT #2: 366 (-309)	Initial	SMU	SMU
28. CAAT #1: 366 (-309)	Initial	SMU	SMU
30. Hutch H. #1: 366 (-332)	Initial	Initial	Initial
31. Hutch H. #2: 363 (-335)	Initial	Initial	Initial
34. Jon F.: 355 (-300)	Initial	Initial	SMU
37. Brent E. #2: 350 (-303)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
37. Brent E. #3: 350 (-303)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
39. Brent E. #1: 348 (-277)	Oklahoma	Kentucky	Kentucky
40. Michelle L. #1: 348 (-329)	Initial	Initial	Initial
41. Pete J. #2: 345 (-333)	Initial	Initial	Initial
42. Scott H. #2: 338 (-319)	Initial	Initial	SMU
43. Brett W.: 333 (-323)	Miami	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
44. Michelle L. #2: 332 (-338)	Miami	Oregon St.	Oregon St.
45. Larry G.: 331 (-366)	Initial	SMU	Miami
48. Jay H. #1: 326 (-296)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Kentucky
49. Pete J. #1: 325 (-353)	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. CAAT #5: 323 (-365)	Initial	Initial	Initial
51. Henry A.: 312 (-325)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
52. Damien R.: 305 (-335)	SMU	Oklahoma	Iowa St.
53. Kirt R.: 304 (-361)	NC State	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
54. Ryan W.: 303 (-330)	SMU	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
56. Mario M.: 297 (-310)	Oklahoma	Kentucky	Kentucky
57. Carrie F.: 297 (-340)	Initial	Initial	Initial
58. Scott H. #1: 295 (-312)	Miami	NC State	Oklahoma
60. Mike W.: 284 (-389)	Initial	SMU	Miami
61. Jim W.: 283 (-317)	Initial	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
62. Tim N.: 282 (-252)	Initial	NC State	Iowa St.
63. Howard S.: 278 (-387)	Miami	Miami	Kentucky
64. Adam E.: 277 (-330)	Oregon St.	Oregon St.	Iowa St.
65. Max A. #1: 265 (-390)	Initial	Initial	Initial
66. Jaxon S.: 264 (-284)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Iowa St.
67. Brad R.: 252 (-364)	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
68. Max A. #2: 248 (-428)	Initial	Initial	Initial
69. Dan Du.: 233 (-330)	SMU	Oregon St.	Oregon St.
70. Becky H.: 208 (-332)	NC State	Kentucky	Kentucky

I’m going to guess that nobody really cares about pick distributions anymore.  I mean, there’s only 26 people still alive to win anything.  I think I’m just going to post names, current points, pick and points for upcoming games.  That will give you a pretty good idea of what needs to happen for you in that game.

So, here it is for the last game of the day:

Name	Points Won	Pick	Points
Dennis R.	503	Ohio State	29
Moochi the Man	499	Ohio State	5
Brian K.	436	Ohio State	27
Ally H.	442	Ohio State	17
Slave to Trends	437	Ohio State	24
Amber the Beast	421	Ohio State	6
Eric G.	356	Ohio State	33
Steve M. #1	413	Ohio State	40
Sally R.	442	Ohio State	33
Mike S.	435	Ohio State	6
Matt Mal.	387	Missouri	24
Steve M. #2	374	Missouri	10
Marc R. #2	297	Ohio State	33
Matt Mei.	357	Missouri	40
Marc R. #1	404	Ohio State	30
Charlotte N.	329	Ohio State	2
Faye N.	352	Ohio State	20
Andrew D.	353	Missouri	20
Josaih T. #1	409	Ohio State	29
Daniel E.	404	Missouri	7
Jason S.	407	Ohio State	5
Klei R.	383	Ohio State	22
Brent E. #4	370	Missouri	14
Jim D.	327	Ohio State	38
Mike N.	382	Ohio State	16
Paul Kr.	290	Missouri	23

Here are the eliminations for the Cotton Bowl:

If Ohio State Wins:

Andrew D. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Charlotte N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Daniel E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt Mei. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Steve M. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Missouri Wins:

Jim D. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Josaih T. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Klei R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Mike N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Well, guess who I am rooting for tonight?  It’s my last gasp at winning something in my own pool.  At least I feel comfortable that I am betting alongside Dennis in this one.

Good Luck!!!!!!