I’m officially eliminated from my own pool, so I am going to take this opportunity to go on a little bit of a rant. Here we go…
The NCAA needs to fix the rules for the transfer portal. There
is no reason that the portal has to start at the end of the regular season and
before any bowl games are played. There
aren’t going to be any football games played between early January and mid
Fall. The portal can be opened from any
time between those two events. I don’t know
how many games I have watched this bowl season where the announcers had to talk
about how the starting QB is getting their first start of the season, or any
number of critical players during the regular season are no longer there. If I was putting on the Cotton Bowl, my guess
is that I would still pick Ohio State to be in the game, but definitely not
because I though the team they were bringing was anything resembling the team
they played with during the regular season.
It would be because I thought I could draw the biggest crowd with Ohio
State than I could with some other team (the moral being: money).
Secondly, I know I’ve mentioned this before, but if you are
going to declare yourself for the pros, I don’t know why you wouldn’t just do
it as soon as you knew you were probably going to be a 1st round
pick. The logic seems to be that you don’t
want to risk your future earnings getting hurt in a game. Guess what?
Marvin Harrison Jr. was going to be a high 1st round draft
pick before he suited up to play Michigan in the last game of the season and he
played – so that isn’t it.
I also am tired of players and announcers saying that player
X who is sitting out to go pro reeeeallllly wished he could be out there with
his guys, and it’s somehow commendable that he hung out with them all week and
then stood on the sidelines. Two things
can be true at the same time. You can be
sitting out so that you are not hurting your pro stock and you can be quitting
on your team. I’m not sure how much I
would love a guy that played next to me all season long, and then when (as they
all say) the biggest game of the season is being played, decide to skip out and
hurt the teams chances. That doesn’t
really scream “I’m a good team player”.
There is a quote by C. Montgomery Burns of the Simpsons that goes: “You
see teamwork will only take you so far.
Then the truly evolved person makes that extra grab for personal glory.” That’s what I hear when I see players sitting
out to go pro.
Another wrinkle that I wonder about is this: If Ohio State had made the Top 4 teams
playing for the Championship, would Marvin Harrison Jr. have played? My guess is that he would have. I’ll be curious to hear how many players from
Alabama, Michigan, Washington and Texas are sitting out to protect their draft
status. I bet it’s a whole lot fewer
than I’ve heard so far, and theoretically these teams would have the most high
draft picks.
Anyway, I think the Georgia / Florida State game is going to
be a total joke because of the 2 points I just made. The NCAA needs to change some things around
or bowl games in the future are going to continue to be glorified spring
practice scrimmages.
From an administration of the pool standpoint, it doesn’t
really effect me. It makes picking games
a lot harder since you can barely use past performance to gauge how good a team
is, but games will be played and picks will be won or lost. The math will shake out and someone will do
better than everyone else and win. The
mechanics of that are fun, but it would be a whole lot more fun if we were
watching full strength teams at the same time.
OK – rant over.
So, we are down to 22 people alive at this point. Those of us on Dennis R. watch saw that he
opened the window slightly by dropping 29 points on Ohio State. He still is hovering around 50% for 1st
place and 88% to win something. No one
else has >50% chance to win any of the places, although one more win by
Moochi the Man may do it. He is
currently sitting at 48%.
At this point, it’s kind of like poker. There are 300 percentage points to go
around. If you win, you are taking
someone else’s points. If you are facing
an elimination game, it is like you are pushing all-in. You either are out, or your probability
doubles. Eventually someone ends up with
100% of 1st place, and 100% of 2nd and 100% of 3rd. On average, most people still have about 1/3 of
their points available. The trick is you
are someone like Brian K. or Ally H. is how much different your picks and
points are from Dennis R. and Moochi the Man.
I am putting the picks and points for the games on he blog. If you both picked the same team, and you
picked that team for fewer points than Dennis R., you are better served for 1st
place having that team lose. That probably
doesn’t help for 2nd and 3rd, but you can only win one
spot, so I’m focusing on 1st.
Anyway, here is the updated matrix:
Total |
1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
1. Dennis R.: 503 (-187) |
48.7467% |
27.4089% |
12.0768% |
2. Moochi the Man: 499 (-254) |
18.6198% |
16.3249% |
13.4928% |
3. Ally H.: 442 (-230) |
9.6517% |
7.4544% |
11.3444% |
6. Brian K.: 436 (-244) |
2.6367% |
10.1074% |
11.8001% |
5. Slave to Trends: 437 (-231) |
1.6113% |
9.1309% |
11.6211% |
9. Amber the Beast: 421 (-260) |
6.9824% |
7.9102% |
6.0872% |
12. Matt Mal.: 411 (-251) |
3.9063% |
4.6875% |
6.3965% |
7. Mike S.: 435 (-261) |
Initial |
5.4688% |
5.7454% |
36. Eric G.: 356 (-233) |
3.2227% |
2.7832% |
4.4434% |
11. Steve M. #1: 413 (-308) |
1.8066% |
2.6855% |
3.1087% |
4. Sally R.: 442 (-299) |
1.4160% |
2.2949% |
3.7598% |
22. Steve M. #2: 384 (-331) |
0.5859% |
1.1230% |
2.0996% |
18. Matt Mei.: 397 (-289) |
0.4232% |
0.8626% |
1.7415% |
48. Charlotte N.: 329 (-286) |
0.3418% |
0.5859% |
0.9277% |
29. Andrew D.: 373 (-265) |
SMU |
SMU |
1.5137% |
13. Daniel E.: 411 (-288) |
SMU |
Iowa St. |
1.2207% |
57. Marc R. #2: 297 (-264) |
Oregon St. |
0.3906% |
0.8138% |
16. Jason S.: 407 (-283) |
Initial |
0.1953% |
0.6348% |
38. Faye N.: 352 (-323) |
0.0488% |
0.3906% |
0.3418% |
17. Marc R. #1: 404 (-295) |
Oregon St. |
0.1953% |
0.2930% |
21. Brent E. #4: 384 (-309) |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
0.4883% |
53. Paul Kr.: 313 (-298) |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
0.0488% |
8. Josaih T. #2: 422 (-293) |
Initial |
Oklahoma |
Iowa St. |
10. Matt N.: 418 (-302) |
Initial |
SMU |
NC State |
14. Jay H. #2: 411 (-325) |
Initial |
NC State |
Kentucky |
15. Josaih T. #1: 409 (-306) |
Miami |
Oklahoma |
Ohio St. |
19. Rich F.: 394 (-340) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
20. Sports Illustrated: 387 (-299) |
Initial |
SMU |
NC State |
23. Klei R.: 383 (-301) |
Kentucky |
Ohio St. |
Ohio St. |
24. Mike N.: 382 (-307) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Ohio St. |
25. Dylan B.: 382 (-315) |
Initial |
NC State |
Iowa St. |
26. Steve Dz.: 380 (-322) |
SMU |
Miami |
Oregon St. |
27. CAAT #4: 380 (-331) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
27. CAAT #3: 380 (-331) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
30. CAAT #2: 366 (-331) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
30. CAAT #1: 366 (-331) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
32. Hutch H. #1: 366 (-345) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
33. Hutch H. #2: 363 (-348) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
34. Michelle L. #1: 362 (-329) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
35. Michelle L. #2: 357 (-338) |
Miami |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
37. Jon F.: 355 (-317) |
Initial |
Initial |
SMU |
39. Brent E. #2: 350 (-327) |
SMU |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
39. Brent E. #3: 350 (-327) |
SMU |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
41. Brent E. #1: 348 (-315) |
Oklahoma |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
42. Pete J. #2: 345 (-361) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
43. Henry A.: 342 (-325) |
SMU |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
44. Scott H. #2: 338 (-344) |
Initial |
Initial |
SMU |
45. Brett W.: 334 (-323) |
Miami |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
46. Mario M.: 332 (-310) |
Oklahoma |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
47. Larry G.: 331 (-401) |
Initial |
SMU |
Miami |
49. Jim D.: 327 (-302) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Ohio St. |
50. Jay H. #1: 326 (-315) |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
Kentucky |
51. Pete J. #1: 325 (-381) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
52. CAAT #5: 323 (-387) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
54. Damien R.: 305 (-363) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Iowa St. |
55. Kirt R.: 304 (-393) |
NC State |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
56. Ryan W.: 303 (-340) |
SMU |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
58. Carrie F.: 297 (-358) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
59. Scott H. #1: 295 (-338) |
Miami |
NC State |
Oklahoma |
60. Mike W.: 284 (-391) |
Initial |
SMU |
Miami |
61. Jim W.: 283 (-357) |
Initial |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
62. Tim N.: 282 (-284) |
Initial |
NC State |
Iowa St. |
63. Howard S.: 278 (-397) |
Miami |
Miami |
Kentucky |
64. Adam E.: 277 (-363) |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
Iowa St. |
65. Max A. #1: 265 (-397) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
66. Jaxon S.: 264 (-322) |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Iowa St. |
67. Brad R.: 252 (-405) |
Initial |
Initial |
Oklahoma |
68. Max A. #2: 248 (-435) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
69. Dan Du.: 233 (-369) |
SMU |
Oregon St. |
Oregon St. |
70. Becky H.: 208 (-372) |
NC State |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
4 more games tomorrow.
I guess because it’s a Saturday, they are all at weird times. I think I’ll go 50/50 and provide details for
the first 2 games, and then the next 2 later.
Peach Bowl
Name |
Points Won |
Pick |
Points |
Dennis R. |
503 |
Penn State |
37 |
Moochi the Man |
499 |
Ole Miss |
32 |
Ally H. |
442 |
Penn State |
24 |
Brian K. |
436 |
Penn State |
30 |
Slave to Trends |
437 |
Penn State |
25 |
Amber the Beast |
421 |
Ole Miss |
34 |
Matt Mal. |
411 |
Ole Miss |
26 |
Mike S. |
435 |
Penn State |
24 |
Eric G. |
356 |
Penn State |
34 |
Steve M. #1 |
413 |
Ole Miss |
22 |
Sally R. |
442 |
Ole Miss |
5 |
Steve M. #2 |
384 |
Penn State |
4 |
Matt Mei. |
397 |
Ole Miss |
34 |
Charlotte N. |
329 |
Penn State |
3 |
Andrew D. |
373 |
Penn State |
27 |
Daniel E. |
411 |
Ole Miss |
2 |
Marc R. #2 |
297 |
Penn State |
34 |
Jason S. |
407 |
Ole Miss |
3 |
Faye N. |
352 |
Ole Miss |
24 |
Marc R. #1 |
404 |
Penn State |
22 |
Brent E. #4 |
384 |
Penn State |
28 |
Paul Kr. |
313 |
Penn State |
24 |
If Penn State Wins: |
Charlotte N. is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
Daniel E. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention. |
Faye N. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd
& 3rd place contention. |
Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd
& 3rd place contention. |
Matt Mei. is eliminated from 1st,
2nd & 3rd place contention. |
Steve M. #1 is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
If Ole Miss Wins: |
Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 3rd
place contention. |
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd
& 3rd place contention. |
Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd
& 3rd place contention. |
Paul Kr. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention. |
Wow. This is a real
make it or break it game. The two people
with the most points are 69 points different from one another. If Dennis R. wins, his odds of taking first
rocket up to something like 78%. If Moochi
the Man wins, he will take over as the odds-on favorite to win the pool
(although at about 33% to 28%). Either
way, a lot will be decided by this game tomorrow near the top of he standings. Someone is going to open the door for some
other people to get closer to the top.
Just who it will be and how close remains to be seen. That’s a great way to start a Saturday of
Bowl games.
The Music City Bowl:
Name |
Points Won |
Pick |
Points |
Dennis R. |
503 |
Auburn |
24 |
Moochi the Man |
499 |
Auburn |
19 |
Ally H. |
442 |
Maryland |
18 |
Brian K. |
436 |
Maryland |
18 |
Slave to Trends |
437 |
Auburn |
22 |
Amber the Beast |
421 |
Auburn |
18 |
Matt Mal. |
411 |
Maryland |
25 |
Mike S. |
435 |
Maryland |
1 |
Eric G. |
356 |
Auburn |
35 |
Steve M. #1 |
413 |
Auburn |
27 |
Sally R. |
442 |
Auburn |
22 |
Steve M. #2 |
384 |
Maryland |
32 |
Matt Mei. |
397 |
Maryland |
6 |
Charlotte N. |
329 |
Auburn |
31 |
Andrew D. |
373 |
Auburn |
26 |
Daniel E. |
411 |
Auburn |
12 |
Marc R. #2 |
297 |
Auburn |
35 |
Jason S. |
407 |
Maryland |
14 |
Faye N. |
352 |
Auburn |
13 |
Marc R. #1 |
404 |
Auburn |
32 |
Brent E. #4 |
384 |
Maryland |
1 |
Paul Kr. |
313 |
Auburn |
25 |
If Auburn Wins: |
Brian K. is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd
& 3rd place contention. |
Matt Mei. is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
Steve M. #2 is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
If Maryland Wins: |
Andrew D. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention. |
Charlotte N. is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
Faye N. is eliminated from 1st place
contention. |
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd
& 3rd place contention. |
Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd
place contention. |
Paul Kr. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention. |
Slave to Trends is eliminated from
1st place contention. |
Not quite as dramatic as the Peach Bowl, but still a lot
could be decided, just probably not for the top 2 spots. Remember that because I am doing single game
eliminations over 2 games, you could be knocked out because of a combination of
losses where no single game would do it.
Good luck!!!!!!
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