Friday, December 29, 2023

I get knocked out and go on a rant edition

 I’m officially eliminated from my own pool, so I am going to take this opportunity to go on a little bit of a rant.  Here we go…

The NCAA needs to fix the rules for the transfer portal. There is no reason that the portal has to start at the end of the regular season and before any bowl games are played.  There aren’t going to be any football games played between early January and mid Fall.  The portal can be opened from any time between those two events.  I don’t know how many games I have watched this bowl season where the announcers had to talk about how the starting QB is getting their first start of the season, or any number of critical players during the regular season are no longer there.  If I was putting on the Cotton Bowl, my guess is that I would still pick Ohio State to be in the game, but definitely not because I though the team they were bringing was anything resembling the team they played with during the regular season.  It would be because I thought I could draw the biggest crowd with Ohio State than I could with some other team (the moral being: money).

Secondly, I know I’ve mentioned this before, but if you are going to declare yourself for the pros, I don’t know why you wouldn’t just do it as soon as you knew you were probably going to be a 1st round pick.  The logic seems to be that you don’t want to risk your future earnings getting hurt in a game.  Guess what?  Marvin Harrison Jr. was going to be a high 1st round draft pick before he suited up to play Michigan in the last game of the season and he played – so that isn’t it.

I also am tired of players and announcers saying that player X who is sitting out to go pro reeeeallllly wished he could be out there with his guys, and it’s somehow commendable that he hung out with them all week and then stood on the sidelines.  Two things can be true at the same time.  You can be sitting out so that you are not hurting your pro stock and you can be quitting on your team.  I’m not sure how much I would love a guy that played next to me all season long, and then when (as they all say) the biggest game of the season is being played, decide to skip out and hurt the teams chances.  That doesn’t really scream “I’m a good team player”.  There is a quote by C. Montgomery Burns of the Simpsons that goes: “You see teamwork will only take you so far.  Then the truly evolved person makes that extra grab for personal glory.”  That’s what I hear when I see players sitting out to go pro.

Another wrinkle that I wonder about is this:  If Ohio State had made the Top 4 teams playing for the Championship, would Marvin Harrison Jr. have played?  My guess is that he would have.  I’ll be curious to hear how many players from Alabama, Michigan, Washington and Texas are sitting out to protect their draft status.  I bet it’s a whole lot fewer than I’ve heard so far, and theoretically these teams would have the most high draft picks.

Anyway, I think the Georgia / Florida State game is going to be a total joke because of the 2 points I just made.  The NCAA needs to change some things around or bowl games in the future are going to continue to be glorified spring practice scrimmages.

From an administration of the pool standpoint, it doesn’t really effect me.  It makes picking games a lot harder since you can barely use past performance to gauge how good a team is, but games will be played and picks will be won or lost.  The math will shake out and someone will do better than everyone else and win.  The mechanics of that are fun, but it would be a whole lot more fun if we were watching full strength teams at the same time.  OK – rant over.

So, we are down to 22 people alive at this point.  Those of us on Dennis R. watch saw that he opened the window slightly by dropping 29 points on Ohio State.  He still is hovering around 50% for 1st place and 88% to win something.  No one else has >50% chance to win any of the places, although one more win by Moochi the Man may do it.  He is currently sitting at 48%.

At this point, it’s kind of like poker.  There are 300 percentage points to go around.  If you win, you are taking someone else’s points.  If you are facing an elimination game, it is like you are pushing all-in.  You either are out, or your probability doubles.  Eventually someone ends up with 100% of 1st place, and 100% of 2nd and 100% of 3rd.  On average, most people still have about 1/3 of their points available.  The trick is you are someone like Brian K. or Ally H. is how much different your picks and points are from Dennis R. and Moochi the Man.  I am putting the picks and points for the games on he blog.  If you both picked the same team, and you picked that team for fewer points than Dennis R., you are better served for 1st place having that team lose.  That probably doesn’t help for 2nd and 3rd, but you can only win one spot, so I’m focusing on 1st.

Anyway, here is the updated matrix:

Total

1st Place

2nd Place

3rd Place

1. Dennis R.: 503 (-187)

48.7467%

27.4089%

12.0768%

2. Moochi the Man: 499 (-254)

18.6198%

16.3249%

13.4928%

3. Ally H.: 442 (-230)

9.6517%

7.4544%

11.3444%

6. Brian K.: 436 (-244)

2.6367%

10.1074%

11.8001%

5. Slave to Trends: 437 (-231)

1.6113%

9.1309%

11.6211%

9. Amber the Beast: 421 (-260)

6.9824%

7.9102%

6.0872%

12. Matt Mal.: 411 (-251)

3.9063%

4.6875%

6.3965%

7. Mike S.: 435 (-261)

Initial

5.4688%

5.7454%

36. Eric G.: 356 (-233)

3.2227%

2.7832%

4.4434%

11. Steve M. #1: 413 (-308)

1.8066%

2.6855%

3.1087%

4. Sally R.: 442 (-299)

1.4160%

2.2949%

3.7598%

22. Steve M. #2: 384 (-331)

0.5859%

1.1230%

2.0996%

18. Matt Mei.: 397 (-289)

0.4232%

0.8626%

1.7415%

48. Charlotte N.: 329 (-286)

0.3418%

0.5859%

0.9277%

29. Andrew D.: 373 (-265)

SMU

SMU

1.5137%

13. Daniel E.: 411 (-288)

SMU

Iowa St.

1.2207%

57. Marc R. #2: 297 (-264)

Oregon St.

0.3906%

0.8138%

16. Jason S.: 407 (-283)

Initial

0.1953%

0.6348%

38. Faye N.: 352 (-323)

0.0488%

0.3906%

0.3418%

17. Marc R. #1: 404 (-295)

Oregon St.

0.1953%

0.2930%

21. Brent E. #4: 384 (-309)

Oregon St.

Oregon St.

0.4883%

53. Paul Kr.: 313 (-298)

Kentucky

Kentucky

0.0488%

8. Josaih T. #2: 422 (-293)

Initial

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

10. Matt N.: 418 (-302)

Initial

SMU

NC State

14. Jay H. #2: 411 (-325)

Initial

NC State

Kentucky

15. Josaih T. #1: 409 (-306)

Miami

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

19. Rich F.: 394 (-340)

Initial

Initial

Initial

20. Sports Illustrated: 387 (-299)

Initial

SMU

NC State

23. Klei R.: 383 (-301)

Kentucky

Ohio St.

Ohio St.

24. Mike N.: 382 (-307)

SMU

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

25. Dylan B.: 382 (-315)

Initial

NC State

Iowa St.

26. Steve Dz.: 380 (-322)

SMU

Miami

Oregon St.

27. CAAT #4: 380 (-331)

Initial

SMU

SMU

27. CAAT #3: 380 (-331)

Initial

SMU

SMU

30. CAAT #2: 366 (-331)

Initial

SMU

SMU

30. CAAT #1: 366 (-331)

Initial

SMU

SMU

32. Hutch H. #1: 366 (-345)

Initial

Initial

Initial

33. Hutch H. #2: 363 (-348)

Initial

Initial

Initial

34. Michelle L. #1: 362 (-329)

Initial

Initial

Initial

35. Michelle L. #2: 357 (-338)

Miami

Oregon St.

Oregon St.

37. Jon F.: 355 (-317)

Initial

Initial

SMU

39. Brent E. #2: 350 (-327)

SMU

SMU

Oklahoma

39. Brent E. #3: 350 (-327)

SMU

SMU

Oklahoma

41. Brent E. #1: 348 (-315)

Oklahoma

Kentucky

Kentucky

42. Pete J. #2: 345 (-361)

Initial

Initial

Initial

43. Henry A.: 342 (-325)

SMU

SMU

Oklahoma

44. Scott H. #2: 338 (-344)

Initial

Initial

SMU

45. Brett W.: 334 (-323)

Miami

Oklahoma

Oklahoma

46. Mario M.: 332 (-310)

Oklahoma

Kentucky

Kentucky

47. Larry G.: 331 (-401)

Initial

SMU

Miami

49. Jim D.: 327 (-302)

SMU

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

50. Jay H. #1: 326 (-315)

Oklahoma

Oklahoma

Kentucky

51. Pete J. #1: 325 (-381)

Initial

Initial

Initial

52. CAAT #5: 323 (-387)

Initial

Initial

Initial

54. Damien R.: 305 (-363)

SMU

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

55. Kirt R.: 304 (-393)

NC State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma

56. Ryan W.: 303 (-340)

SMU

Oklahoma

Oklahoma

58. Carrie F.: 297 (-358)

Initial

Initial

Initial

59. Scott H. #1: 295 (-338)

Miami

NC State

Oklahoma

60. Mike W.: 284 (-391)

Initial

SMU

Miami

61. Jim W.: 283 (-357)

Initial

Oklahoma

Oklahoma

62. Tim N.: 282 (-284)

Initial

NC State

Iowa St.

63. Howard S.: 278 (-397)

Miami

Miami

Kentucky

64. Adam E.: 277 (-363)

Oregon St.

Oregon St.

Iowa St.

65. Max A. #1: 265 (-397)

Initial

Initial

Initial

66. Jaxon S.: 264 (-322)

Kentucky

Kentucky

Iowa St.

67. Brad R.: 252 (-405)

Initial

Initial

Oklahoma

68. Max A. #2: 248 (-435)

Initial

Initial

Initial

69. Dan Du.: 233 (-369)

SMU

Oregon St.

Oregon St.

70. Becky H.: 208 (-372)

NC State

Kentucky

Kentucky

4 more games tomorrow.  I guess because it’s a Saturday, they are all at weird times.  I think I’ll go 50/50 and provide details for the first 2 games, and then the next 2 later.

Peach Bowl

Name

Points Won

Pick

Points

Dennis R.

503

Penn State

37

Moochi the Man

499

Ole Miss

32

Ally H.

442

Penn State

24

Brian K.

436

Penn State

30

Slave to Trends

437

Penn State

25

Amber the Beast

421

Ole Miss

34

Matt Mal.

411

Ole Miss

26

Mike S.

435

Penn State

24

Eric G.

356

Penn State

34

Steve M. #1

413

Ole Miss

22

Sally R.

442

Ole Miss

5

Steve M. #2

384

Penn State

4

Matt Mei.

397

Ole Miss

34

Charlotte N.

329

Penn State

3

Andrew D.

373

Penn State

27

Daniel E.

411

Ole Miss

2

Marc R. #2

297

Penn State

34

Jason S.

407

Ole Miss

3

Faye N.

352

Ole Miss

24

Marc R. #1

404

Penn State

22

Brent E. #4

384

Penn State

28

Paul Kr.

313

Penn State

24


If Penn State Wins:

Charlotte N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Daniel E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Faye N. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Matt Mei. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Steve M. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.


If Ole Miss Wins:

Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Wow.  This is a real make it or break it game.  The two people with the most points are 69 points different from one another.  If Dennis R. wins, his odds of taking first rocket up to something like 78%.  If Moochi the Man wins, he will take over as the odds-on favorite to win the pool (although at about 33% to 28%).  Either way, a lot will be decided by this game tomorrow near the top of he standings.  Someone is going to open the door for some other people to get closer to the top.  Just who it will be and how close remains to be seen.  That’s a great way to start a Saturday of Bowl games.

The Music City Bowl:

Name

Points Won

Pick

Points

Dennis R.

503

Auburn

24

Moochi the Man

499

Auburn

19

Ally H.

442

Maryland

18

Brian K.

436

Maryland

18

Slave to Trends

437

Auburn

22

Amber the Beast

421

Auburn

18

Matt Mal.

411

Maryland

25

Mike S.

435

Maryland

1

Eric G.

356

Auburn

35

Steve M. #1

413

Auburn

27

Sally R.

442

Auburn

22

Steve M. #2

384

Maryland

32

Matt Mei.

397

Maryland

6

Charlotte N.

329

Auburn

31

Andrew D.

373

Auburn

26

Daniel E.

411

Auburn

12

Marc R. #2

297

Auburn

35

Jason S.

407

Maryland

14

Faye N.

352

Auburn

13

Marc R. #1

404

Auburn

32

Brent E. #4

384

Maryland

1

Paul Kr.

313

Auburn

25


If Auburn Wins:

Brian K. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Matt Mei. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Steve M. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.


If Maryland Wins:

Andrew D. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Charlotte N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Faye N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Paul Kr. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Slave to Trends is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Not quite as dramatic as the Peach Bowl, but still a lot could be decided, just probably not for the top 2 spots.  Remember that because I am doing single game eliminations over 2 games, you could be knocked out because of a combination of losses where no single game would do it.

Good luck!!!!!!

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