Initial Odds and Fenway Bowl eliminations

 The Bowl pool is roughly half over.  It was all fun and games and gathering up as many points as possible, but now is where things start to get serious.  I have calculated the probabilities of winning this pool, and the good news is that only 10 people are knocked out of contention for all 3 payouts.

For those that have never entered one of my pools before, or have forgotten what it is that I do, after a certain point, I crank through all possible remaining scenarios, calculate everyone’s potential points for all those scenarios, and determine whether you can get 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd.  One caveat is that I am assuming that all games are roughly a 50/50 chance of either team winning.  That’s not really accurate, but it makes the calculations a whole lot easier.

Once I know everyone’s chances of winning, I can also figure out what will happen based on the results of the next game.  So, from now on, there will always be a section of the game preview that says something like:  If Team X wins: followed by a list of people that will be mathematically eliminated if that result happens.  The goal obviously is to not be on that list.  If you are on that list, you really need to make sure that whatever will eliminate you doesn’t happen.  Sadly, this will happen to all of us at least 3 times unless you finish 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd.

I also more lr less drop the points rankings.  I still keep them in the background and bring them out occasionally, but really I rely on the matrix.  The matrix has 4 columns.  The first is your name.  The 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th columns are your chances of getting either 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd.  I sort them so that the person most likely to win anything is at the top.

So, here are the unlucky 10 entries that can’t win anything:

20. Hutch H. #2: 303 (-249)

27. Rich F.: 297 (-252)

28. Hutch H. #1: 296 (-256)

35. Michelle L. #1: 283 (-244)

46. Pete J. #2: 254 (-248)

49. Pete J. #1: 241 (-261)

47. CAAT #5: 246 (-287)

56. Carrie F.: 212 (-258)

62. Max A. #1: 189 (-265)

67. Max A. #2: 172 (-303)

The number next to the name is the current position in the points standings.  It seems crazy to me that Hutch H. #2 can’t win anything sitting in 20^th place in points right now, yet the person sitting in dead last can.  That’s math for you.

Without any further ado, here is the initial matrix of the 2023-24 Bowl Pool:

Total	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
2. Dennis R.: 383 (-87)	28.6980%	17.0355%	11.2026%
3. Ally H.: 377 (-114)	17.8079%	13.4050%	10.7338%
1. Moochi the Man: 414 (-159)	17.7750%	12.9073%	9.6126%
4. Brian K.: 374 (-140)	9.9385%	11.4202%	9.9061%
12. Slave to Trends: 339 (-163)	5.3759%	6.3977%	6.4157%
5. Sally R.: 355 (-188)	4.4393%	6.1957%	6.4228%
16. Amber the Beast: 322 (-179)	5.4869%	5.4403%	4.7038%
9. Klei R.: 342 (-171)	1.3466%	3.6176%	4.5694%
29. Brent E. #1: 290 (-166)	1.4935%	3.1160%	3.2377%
14. Marc R. #1: 331 (-160)	0.4346%	2.3582%	4.1466%
15. Steve M. #2: 323 (-254)	1.6644%	1.8854%	2.0113%
57. Marc R. #2: 211 (-114)	1.2748%	1.9056%	2.1989%
41. Charlotte N.: 264 (-201)	0.8651%	1.4116%	1.8190%
10. Josaih T. #1: 341 (-181)	0.1634%	0.9583%	2.1855%
13. Jason S.: 339 (-193)	Initial	1.2378%	1.9608%
24. Matt Mei.: 300 (-228)	0.6499%	0.9683%	1.2191%
8. Mike S.: 350 (-211)	Initial	0.8411%	1.6258%
21. Brent E. #4: 302 (-220)	0.1191%	0.7617%	1.2075%
36. Jay H. #1: 281 (-176)	0.1909%	0.5745%	1.0854%
51. Mario M.: 234 (-194)	0.1860%	0.7179%	0.9062%
45. Faye N.: 257 (-240)	0.3177%	0.5761%	0.9128%
44. Matt Mal.: 261 (-209)	0.2371%	0.6114%	0.9569%
40. Steve M. #1: 267 (-260)	0.2754%	0.5627%	0.8980%
68. Eric G.: 166 (-174)	0.3548%	0.5481%	0.6949%
18. Michelle L. #2: 317 (-221)	0.0898%	0.4870%	0.6886%
48. Brett W.: 241 (-213)	0.0763%	0.5030%	0.6697%
58. Paul Kr.: 210 (-170)	0.1729%	0.4238%	0.6362%
11. Daniel E.: 341 (-215)	0.0216%	0.3114%	0.6017%
52. Scott H. #1: 232 (-168)	0.0811%	0.2724%	0.4947%
39. Andrew D.: 267 (-192)	0.0082%	0.2245%	0.5878%
59. Adam E.: 209 (-226)	0.1687%	0.2823%	0.3467%
38. Howard S.: 269 (-247)	0.0771%	0.2708%	0.3319%
65. Becky H.: 175 (-195)	0.1114%	0.2141%	0.3407%
6. Matt N.: 353 (-222)	Initial	0.1738%	0.4906%
54. Ryan W.: 221 (-190)	0.0011%	0.1821%	0.3439%
50. Jim D.: 234 (-170)	0.0070%	0.1673%	0.3447%
17. Steve Dz.: 321 (-235)	0.0198%	0.1335%	0.3536%
60. Damien R.: 208 (-211)	0.0172%	0.1205%	0.3440%
22. Brent E. #2: 301 (-195)	0.0007%	0.0543%	0.4063%
22. Brent E. #3: 301 (-195)	0.0007%	0.0543%	0.4063%
66. Tim N.: 173 (-158)	Initial	0.1234%	0.3176%
31. Mike N.: 287 (-206)	0.0029%	0.0854%	0.3122%
69. Jaxon S.: 146 (-190)	0.0443%	0.1294%	0.2264%
30. Josaih T. #2: 289 (-217)	Initial	0.0852%	0.2629%
19. Dylan B.: 303 (-223)	Initial	0.0688%	0.2716%
34. Sports Illustrated: 284 (-221)	Initial	0.0532%	0.1983%
7. Jay H. #2: 351 (-246)	Initial	0.0296%	0.0820%
25. CAAT #4: 300 (-256)	Initial	0.0183%	0.0764%
55. Jim W.: 217 (-224)	Initial	0.0275%	0.0614%
53. Mike W.: 224 (-250)	Initial	0.0086%	0.0526%
63. Kirt R.: 186 (-307)	0.0017%	0.0139%	0.0347%
70. Dan Du.: 146 (-244)	0.0015%	0.0156%	0.0191%
42. Larry G.: 263 (-239)	Initial	0.0017%	0.0221%
61. Henry A.: 205 (-238)	0.0015%	0.0084%	0.0114%
25. CAAT #3: 300 (-256)	Initial	0.0004%	0.0135%
32. CAAT #2: 286 (-256)	Initial	0.0002%	0.0078%
32. CAAT #1: 286 (-256)	Initial	0.0015%	0.0057%
43. Scott H. #2: 262 (-233)	Initial	Initial	0.0026%
37. Jon F.: 269 (-227)	Initial	Initial	0.0010%
64. Brad R.: 183 (-303)	Initial	Initial	0.0004%
20. Hutch H. #2: 303 (-249)	Initial	Initial	Initial
27. Rich F.: 297 (-252)	Initial	Initial	Initial
28. Hutch H. #1: 296 (-256)	Initial	Initial	Initial
35. Michelle L. #1: 283 (-244)	Initial	Initial	Initial
46. Pete J. #2: 254 (-248)	Initial	Initial	Initial
49. Pete J. #1: 241 (-261)	Initial	Initial	Initial
47. CAAT #5: 246 (-287)	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Carrie F.: 212 (-258)	Initial	Initial	Initial
62. Max A. #1: 189 (-265)	Initial	Initial	Initial
67. Max A. #2: 172 (-303)	Initial	Initial	Initial

There are 4 people who all have 30+% chances of winning something.  Then there’s a bit of a dropoff, and another 4 in that 10-18% range.  Honestly, as long as that number isn’t 0%, you’ve got a chance.  The beauty of this pool is because of the variable points scoring, even though Moochi the Man currently has the most points, he’s only got the 3^rd best chance to win anything.

Let’s look at the first game tomorrow.  It’s the Fenway Bowl:

Vegas Line: SMU -10.5

Median Pick: SMU for 35 points

Average Pick: SMU for 23.9 points.

Picks for SMU: 58 (Average Pick: 33.60 points)

Picks for Boston College: 12 (Average Pick: 22.25 points)

If Boston College wins:

Andrew D. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

CAAT #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

CAAT #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

CAAT #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

CAAT #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Damien R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dan Du. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Daniel E. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Henry A. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Jim D. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jon F. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Larry G. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Mike N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Sports Illustrated is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Steve Dz. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If SMU wins:

Brad R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jaxon S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Kirt R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

So, not a whole lot is on the line here, assuming SMU will win handily.  Then again, they are playing Boston College in Boston, and who knows what the weather will be like.  I wouldn’t mind seeing a big upset – it would keep my brother and my Dad alive, and that’s always good news.

Good luck!!!!!