Posts
That, as they say, is why they play the games. Virtually everyone had SMU winning the Fenway Bowl. So much so, that them losing the Fenway Bowl now constitutes the biggest upset of the Bowl season. I often say that in order to win one of these pools, you kind of need to pick a few upsets and have those upsets hit. This may turn out to be just such a deal breaker.
Those that remember yesterday’s matrix will remember that
Dennis R. was atop the probabilities of winning something. Well, he had Boston College for 28 points, so
his probability of winning something just skyrocketed to 75.17%. That is remarkably good with so many games
left.
Also, if you remember the last post, Boston College winning
was the recipe for maximum carnage in the matrix. 6 more people are totally eliminated from any
of the payouts. My Dad and brother still
live, and my Mom had BC for 25 points, boosting her chances to make the
payouts.
Here is the updated matrix:
|
Total |
1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
|
2. Dennis R.: 411 (-87) |
43.4039% |
19.9311% |
11.8390% |
|
1. Moochi the Man: 414 (-196) |
10.3060% |
11.1011% |
9.2925% |
|
5. Ally H.: 377 (-152) |
8.2013% |
12.2706% |
10.1378% |
|
4. Slave to Trends: 379 (-163) |
9.5032% |
10.5176% |
10.1996% |
|
6. Brian K.: 374 (-157) |
8.3168% |
10.6799% |
10.4811% |
|
3. Sally R.: 380 (-188) |
6.7604% |
9.0328% |
8.9453% |
|
16. Amber the Beast: 322 (-195) |
4.1536% |
5.2070% |
4.7848% |
|
19. Brent E. #1: 303 (-166) |
2.0067% |
4.7014% |
4.9011% |
|
7. Steve M. #2: 356 (-254) |
2.9077% |
2.9819% |
3.1488% |
|
11. Klei R.: 342 (-204) |
0.3775% |
1.9775% |
3.1846% |
|
8. Mike S.: 355 (-211) |
Initial |
1.6808% |
3.0420% |
|
57. Marc R. #2: 211 (-140) |
0.7497% |
1.4526% |
1.8710% |
|
32. Faye N.: 287 (-240) |
0.5721% |
0.9809% |
1.5744% |
|
42. Charlotte N.: 264 (-217) |
0.4440% |
0.9145% |
1.6743% |
|
15. Marc R. #1: 331 (-195) |
0.0857% |
0.7942% |
2.1074% |
|
25. Matt Mei.: 300 (-240) |
0.6175% |
1.0326% |
1.2969% |
|
31. Steve M. #1: 288 (-260) |
0.4814% |
0.8673% |
1.3746% |
|
45. Matt Mal.: 261 (-220) |
0.3448% |
0.6243% |
1.0672% |
|
12. Josaih T. #1: 341 (-216) |
0.0183% |
0.2836% |
1.1208% |
|
14. Jason S.: 339 (-228) |
Initial |
0.3145% |
1.0051% |
|
51. Mario M.: 234 (-221) |
0.1221% |
0.3536% |
0.6950% |
|
69. Eric G.: 166 (-200) |
0.1499% |
0.3689% |
0.5830% |
|
64. Becky H.: 187 (-195) |
0.1842% |
0.3771% |
0.5383% |
|
22. Brent E. #4: 302 (-254) |
0.0290% |
0.2707% |
0.6490% |
|
66. Jaxon S.: 175 (-190) |
0.0885% |
0.2402% |
0.4146% |
|
58. Paul Kr.: 210 (-205) |
0.0511% |
0.1637% |
0.4047% |
|
52. Scott H. #1: 232 (-200) |
0.0038% |
0.1438% |
0.4000% |
|
38. Jay H. #1: 281 (-213) |
0.0042% |
0.0240% |
0.4204% |
|
48. Brett W.: 241 (-252) |
0.0187% |
0.1038% |
0.3229% |
|
59. Adam E.: 209 (-261) |
0.0823% |
0.1161% |
0.1667% |
|
54. Ryan W.: 221 (-219) |
SMU |
0.1263% |
0.2384% |
|
13. Daniel E.: 341 (-251) |
SMU |
0.0357% |
0.3052% |
|
18. Michelle L. #2: 317 (-259) |
0.0015% |
0.0679% |
0.2571% |
|
61. Damien R.: 208 (-248) |
SMU |
0.0488% |
0.2116% |
|
67. Tim N.: 173 (-188) |
Initial |
0.0240% |
0.1839% |
|
50. Jim D.: 234 (-207) |
SMU |
0.0568% |
0.1433% |
|
41. Andrew D.: 267 (-231) |
SMU |
SMU |
0.1924% |
|
40. Howard S.: 269 (-284) |
0.0107% |
0.0656% |
0.1134% |
|
32. Mike N.: 287 (-240) |
SMU |
0.0057% |
0.1242% |
|
30. Josaih T. #2: 289 (-252) |
Initial |
0.0015% |
0.1255% |
|
9. Matt N.: 353 (-259) |
Initial |
SMU |
0.1077% |
|
60. Kirt R.: 209 (-307) |
0.0033% |
0.0273% |
0.0621% |
|
17. Steve Dz.: 321 (-274) |
SMU |
0.0076% |
0.0624% |
|
20. Dylan B.: 303 (-259) |
Initial |
0.0053% |
0.0534% |
|
56. Jim W.: 217 (-256) |
Initial |
0.0134% |
0.0362% |
|
23. Brent E. #2: 301 (-232) |
SMU |
SMU |
0.0493% |
|
23. Brent E. #3: 301 (-232) |
SMU |
SMU |
0.0493% |
|
10. Jay H. #2: 351 (-283) |
Initial |
0.0027% |
0.0139% |
|
36. Sports Illustrated: 284 (-261) |
Initial |
SMU |
0.0121% |
|
53. Mike W.: 224 (-289) |
Initial |
SMU |
0.0083% |
|
43. Larry G.: 263 (-275) |
Initial |
SMU |
0.0046% |
|
70. Dan Du.: 146 (-277) |
SMU |
0.0031% |
0.0015% |
|
65. Brad R.: 183 (-310) |
Initial |
Initial |
0.0008% |
|
62. Henry A.: 205 (-276) |
SMU |
SMU |
0.0004% |
|
21. Hutch H. #2: 303 (-287) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
26. CAAT #4: 300 (-294) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
26. CAAT #3: 300 (-294) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
28. Rich F.: 297 (-289) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
29. Hutch H. #1: 296 (-294) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
34. CAAT #2: 286 (-294) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
34. CAAT #1: 286 (-294) |
Initial |
SMU |
SMU |
|
37. Michelle L. #1: 283 (-283) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
39. Jon F.: 269 (-260) |
Initial |
Initial |
SMU |
|
44. Scott H. #2: 262 (-271) |
Initial |
Initial |
SMU |
|
46. Pete J. #2: 254 (-289) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
47. CAAT #5: 246 (-325) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
49. Pete J. #1: 241 (-302) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
55. Carrie F.: 220 (-258) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
63. Max A. #1: 189 (-304) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
|
68. Max A. #2: 172 (-342) |
Initial |
Initial |
Initial |
There’s still more games to be played today though, so here’s
what can happen in the Pinstripe Bowl:
Vegas Line: Rutgers -2.5
Median Pick: Miami for 3 points
Average Pick: Miami for 3 points
Picks for Rutgers: 33 (Average pick: 14.88 points)
Picks for Miami: 37 (Average pick: 18.35 points)
|
If Miami Wins: |
Pick |
Points |
|
Brad R. is eliminated from 3rd place
contention. |
Rutgers |
1 |
|
Dan Du. is eliminated from 2nd &
3rd place contention. |
Rutgers |
12 |
|
Henry A. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention. |
Rutgers |
18 |
|
Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd
place contention. |
Rutgers |
10 |
|
Jim D. is eliminated from 2nd place
contention. |
Rutgers |
19 |
|
Josaih T. #2 is eliminated from 2nd
place contention. |
Rutgers |
24 |
|
Kirt R. is eliminated from 1st place
contention. |
Rutgers |
30 |
|
Mike N. is eliminated from 2nd place
contention. |
Rutgers |
5 |
|
Tim N. is eliminated from 2nd place
contention. |
Rutgers |
23 |
|
If Rutgers Wins: |
Pick |
Points |
|
Brett W. is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
Miami |
35 |
|
Howard S. is eliminated from 1st
& 2nd place contention. |
Miami |
21 |
|
Josaih T. #1 is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
Miami |
24 |
|
Larry G. is eliminated from 3rd
place contention. |
Miami |
23 |
|
Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from
1st place contention. |
Miami |
8 |
|
Mike W. is eliminated from 3rd place
contention. |
Miami |
22 |
|
Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st
place contention. |
Miami |
33 |
|
Steve Dz. is eliminated from 2nd
place contention. |
Miami |
9 |
I love how a lot of these people that are in danger don’t have
a lot of points on this game. You never
know what significance a lot of these points distributions are going to
play. It also looks like this is an
elimination game for Josiah T, who chose opposite sides of this game for the
same amount of points.
Anyway, I’ll be back between games with an update and a
preview of the 3rd game today.
Good luck everyone!!!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment