December 28 Roundup

 When we started the day today, we had 60 people alive for one of the three payouts, and we had 42 people still alive for first.  At the end of the day, we now have 41 people alive for something and 21 people alive for first.  One thing that didn’t change was that Dennis R. is still in the lead.  He had some minor setbacks today with Miami and Oklahoma, but Boston College more than made up for it.  What those setbacks wound up doing was knocking people out of 2^nd and 3^rd place contention.  If you noticed, he dropped in his chance to win 1^st, but his odds of winning 2^nd or 3^rd went up.  He started the day with a 29% chance of winning the pool and finished with a 39% chance.  That 10.53% increase was the largest absolute change in probabilities for 1^st today.

Former contenders Moochi the Man and Ally H. took the biggest hits on the day in absolute percent chances.  They both dropped about 10-11% from where they started the day.  They are still doing well, but clearly not in as strong a position as they were at the start of the day.

The biggest increase in percent increase today go to Steve M. #1 and Matt Mal. Who increased their respective chances about 350% from where they started the day.  They both started with very low percent chances, but everything seemed to break for them today and you have to start somewhere.

Here is the updated matrix after the 4 games today:

Total	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
3. Dennis R.: 430 (-119)	39.2303%	21.2972%	13.3993%
2. Brian K.: 436 (-176)	15.9312%	17.9901%	15.1632%
5. Slave to Trends: 396 (-170)	13.9109%	10.3709%	10.7463%
6. Ally H.: 393 (-176)	6.8258%	10.9772%	9.2682%
1. Moochi the Man: 437 (-233)	7.3924%	8.9264%	8.5592%
4. Sally R.: 406 (-225)	5.9652%	8.1370%	7.4209%
25. Amber the Beast: 334 (-254)	1.9104%	2.5716%	2.4994%
16. Matt Mei.: 349 (-240)	1.7019%	2.2085%	2.4384%
8. Mike S.: 376 (-220)	Initial	2.3987%	3.8269%
9. Steve M. #2: 373 (-297)	1.5778%	2.1759%	2.0294%
24. Steve M. #1: 335 (-268)	1.1993%	1.8270%	2.4445%
48. Marc R. #2: 267 (-168)	0.9033%	1.7578%	2.3753%
33. Matt Mal.: 319 (-224)	1.0681%	1.6164%	2.2573%
18. Brent E. #1: 342 (-221)	Oklahoma	1.1169%	2.9989%
54. Eric G.: 252 (-200)	0.9155%	1.3214%	1.8738%
20. Faye N.: 338 (-276)	0.6470%	1.0457%	1.7405%
7. Marc R. #1: 377 (-220)	0.0244%	0.7446%	2.3061%
10. Klei R.: 369 (-241)	0.1770%	0.9613%	1.6968%
19. Brent E. #4: 338 (-254)	0.1068%	0.7660%	1.4984%
49. Charlotte N.: 264 (-257)	0.1007%	0.4211%	0.8382%
45. Adam E.: 277 (-261)	0.3632%	0.4333%	0.5615%
13. Jason S.: 356 (-246)	Initial	0.1892%	0.8057%
53. Paul Kr.: 253 (-224)	0.0366%	0.1465%	0.6002%
60. Jaxon S.: 233 (-227)	0.0122%	0.2014%	0.3204%
68. Becky H.: 208 (-233)	NC State	0.2502%	0.2625%
39. Andrew D.: 299 (-234)	SMU	SMU	0.5076%
26. Josaih T. #2: 330 (-257)	Initial	Oklahoma	0.4242%
14. Daniel E.: 355 (-256)	SMU	0.0112%	0.2248%
65. Tim N.: 223 (-214)	Initial	NC State	0.2014%
51. Mario M.: 258 (-274)	Oklahoma	0.0844%	0.0875%
34. Michelle L. #2: 319 (-270)	Miami	0.0275%	0.1251%
36. Mike N.: 318 (-254)	SMU	Oklahoma	0.1221%
17. Josaih T. #1: 346 (-257)	Miami	Oklahoma	0.0946%
21. Dylan B.: 337 (-270)	Initial	NC State	0.0793%
15. Steve Dz.: 355 (-283)	SMU	Miami	0.0448%
47. Jim D.: 274 (-229)	SMU	Oklahoma	0.0427%
69. Dan Du.: 201 (-277)	SMU	0.0244%	0.0122%
62. Damien R.: 232 (-297)	SMU	Oklahoma	0.0336%
11. Jay H. #2: 369 (-292)	Initial	NC State	0.0244%
43. Howard S.: 278 (-305)	Miami	Miami	0.0234%
41. Jay H. #1: 297 (-245)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	0.0214%
12. Matt N.: 358 (-279)	Initial	SMU	NC State
22. CAAT #4: 336 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
22. CAAT #3: 336 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
31. Brent E. #2: 320 (-278)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
31. Brent E. #3: 320 (-278)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
35. Hutch H. #2: 319 (-300)	Initial	Initial	Initial
30. Hutch H. #1: 322 (-297)	Initial	Initial	Initial
27. Rich F.: 326 (-305)	Initial	Initial	Initial
28. CAAT #2: 322 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
28. CAAT #1: 322 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
38. Michelle L. #1: 304 (-294)	Initial	Initial	Initial
37. Sports Illustrated: 311 (-279)	Initial	SMU	NC State
40. Jon F.: 299 (-268)	Initial	Initial	SMU
44. Pete J. #2: 278 (-306)	Initial	Initial	Initial
46. Scott H. #2: 275 (-289)	Initial	Initial	SMU
42. CAAT #5: 282 (-325)	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. Larry G.: 263 (-334)	Initial	SMU	Miami
55. Ryan W.: 249 (-294)	SMU	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
56. Henry A.: 242 (-305)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
57. Brett W.: 241 (-323)	Miami	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
52. Pete J. #1: 258 (-326)	Initial	Initial	Initial
58. Kirt R.: 239 (-361)	NC State	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
59. Jim W.: 235 (-287)	Initial	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
61. Scott H. #1: 232 (-287)	Miami	NC State	Oklahoma
64. Mike W.: 224 (-358)	Initial	SMU	Miami
63. Carrie F.: 231 (-301)	Initial	Initial	Initial
66. Brad R.: 210 (-328)	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
67. Max A. #1: 209 (-375)	Initial	Initial	Initial
70. Max A. #2: 192 (-413)	Initial	Initial	Initial

   

The schedule is a little strange tomorrow.  Today, the 4 games were more or less sequential.  Tomorrow, there are essentially 3 sequential games with the Sun Bowl overlapping 2 of them.  Booo….  That’s bad scheduling.  Then again, it is the only bowl game being carried by CBS, so maybe they are trying to maximalize their viewership at the expense of ESPN.  Who knows, but IU bet the answer has something to do with money.

So, I’ll provide the eliminations of the 2 middle games after the first game is over tomorrow.

Gator Bowl:

Vegas Line: Clemson -4.5

Median Pick: Clemson for 24 points

Average Pick: Clemson for 16.0 points

Picks for Clemson: 56 (Average Pick: 24.84 points)

Picks for Kentucky: 14 (Average Pick: 19.50 points)

If Clemson Wins:	Pick	Points
Becky H. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	26
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	32
Howard S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	24
Jaxon S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Kentucky	25
Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	18
Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Clemson	7
Klei R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Clemson	2
Mario M. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Kentucky	20
Paul Kr. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Kentucky	36

If Kentucky Wins	Pick	Points
Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Clemson	32
Charlotte N. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Clemson	37
Damien R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Clemson	31
Dan Du. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Clemson	32
Jim D. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Clemson	23
Josaih T. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Clemson	30
Steve Dz. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Clemson	25
Tim N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Clemson	28

 We have reached some of my favorite and least favorite parts of the pool.  It is my least favorite part because it is where my entry is in jeopardy of getting knocked out of 1^st place.  I had a good chance starting the day today, but I had a hard time picking up too many wins, and now I’m on the verge of being out.  I think my chances are even more diminished by seeing that on the other side of the elimination partition is Charlotte N, who has never lost a pool she has entered.  That’s not a good omen for me.

I do love this part of the pool because we are seeing people that are in danger of being eliminated even if the team they picked to win actually wins.  For example, I have Clemson winning this game, but only for 2.  My margin for winning is so slim that I am better off losing those 2 points because other people ahead of me will lose more.  I love little statistics like that.

That’s it for tonight.  Good luck!!!!!