The Dennis R. Stranglehold is loosening edition

 For the last few days, I’ve been more or less counting on Dennis R. to just run away with this pool.  If a few games would have gone the other way, he probably would already have cinched a place in the top 3.  But that’s not how this pool works.  Games have to be played and results matter.  It’s been a particularly horrible day for Dennis R. so fat today.  So much so, he is no longer the favorite to win.  He started the day with a 48% chance to win everything, but then lost 37 & 24 points on the Peach and Music City Bowl.  As a matter of fact, he has lost the last 4 games, for a grand total of 129 points to fall from a high probability of 66% to where he is now, which is a shade below 20%.  That sounds terrible, but that’s still a higher chance than all but one person – and he’s still got the best odds of finishing in the top 3.

So, after 4 games where no one was knocked out of 1^st place contention, Auburn knocks 3 people out.  That means that we won’t be having a winner of both the March Madness pool and the Bowl Pool back-to-back as Charlotte N. (and her sister Faye N.) both got taken out for 1^st.  They are still alive for 2^nd and 3^rd, however.

Here is the updated matrix:

Total	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
2. Dennis R.: 503 (-248)	19.9870%	24.2839%	22.3307%
1. Moochi the Man: 531 (-273)	30.7292%	18.2292%	11.9792%
3. Matt Mal.: 462 (-251)	11.9141%	11.5234%	15.0391%
4. Ally H.: 460 (-254)	15.7552%	8.1380%	7.7474%
5. Amber the Beast: 455 (-278)	12.1094%	8.2031%	8.1380%
6. Brian K.: 454 (-274)	1.5625%	10.9375%	10.4818%
9. Matt Mei.: 437 (-289)	1.6927%	2.6693%	4.2318%
8. Slave to Trends: 437 (-278)	Auburn	3.3203%	3.9063%
11. Steve M. #1: 435 (-335)	1.9531%	3.5156%	1.4974%
16. Steve M. #2: 416 (-335)	0.7813%	2.5391%	3.5156%
10. Mike S.: 436 (-285)	Initial	2.7344%	3.5156%
7. Sally R.: 447 (-321)	2.3438%	1.9531%	1.1719%
40. Eric G.: 356 (-302)	1.1719%	0.3906%	1.9531%
12. Jason S.: 424 (-283)	Initial	0.7813%	2.5391%
29. Faye N.: 376 (-336)	Auburn	0.5859%	0.9766%
51. Charlotte N.: 329 (-320)	Auburn	0.1953%	0.7813%
17. Daniel E.: 413 (-300)	SMU	Iowa St.	0.1953%
13. Josaih T. #2: 422 (-325)	Initial	Oklahoma	Iowa St.
14. Matt N.: 418 (-327)	Initial	SMU	NC State
15. Jay H. #2: 416 (-329)	Initial	NC State	Kentucky
18. Josaih T. #1: 413 (-334)	Miami	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
19. Klei R.: 404 (-304)	Kentucky	Ohio St.	Ohio St.
20. Marc R. #1: 404 (-349)	Oregon St.	Penn St.	Penn St.
21. Sports Illustrated: 394 (-327)	Initial	SMU	NC State
22. Rich F.: 394 (-357)	Initial	Initial	Initial
23. Dylan B.: 390 (-315)	Initial	NC State	Iowa St.
24. Mike N.: 386 (-309)	SMU	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
25. Brent E. #4: 385 (-337)	Oregon St.	Oregon St.	Penn St.
26. CAAT #4: 381 (-352)	Initial	SMU	SMU
26. CAAT #3: 381 (-352)	Initial	SMU	SMU
28. Steve Dz.: 380 (-349)	SMU	Miami	Oregon St.
30. Andrew D.: 373 (-318)	SMU	SMU	Auburn
31. CAAT #1: 367 (-352)	Initial	SMU	SMU
32. CAAT #2: 367 (-357)	Initial	SMU	SMU
33. Hutch H. #1: 366 (-368)	Initial	Initial	Initial
34. Mario M.: 364 (-310)	Oklahoma	Kentucky	Kentucky
35. Henry A.: 363 (-347)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
36. Hutch H. #2: 363 (-371)	Initial	Initial	Initial
37. Michelle L. #1: 362 (-344)	Initial	Initial	Initial
38. Michelle L. #2: 362 (-350)	Miami	Oregon St.	Oregon St.
39. Brett W.: 357 (-351)	Miami	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
41. Jon F.: 355 (-357)	Initial	Initial	SMU
42. Brent E. #2: 350 (-362)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
42. Brent E. #3: 350 (-362)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
44. Brent E. #1: 349 (-351)	Oklahoma	Kentucky	Kentucky
45. Jay H. #1: 347 (-335)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Kentucky
46. Pete J. #2: 345 (-393)	Initial	Initial	Initial
47. Mike W.: 343 (-391)	Initial	SMU	Miami
48. Scott H. #2: 338 (-381)	Initial	Initial	SMU
49. Pete J. #1: 334 (-404)	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. Larry G.: 331 (-434)	Initial	SMU	Miami
52. Jim D.: 327 (-358)	SMU	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
53. CAAT #5: 324 (-408)	Initial	Initial	Initial
54. Adam E.: 318 (-363)	Oregon St.	Oregon St.	Iowa St.
55. Tim N.: 316 (-317)	Initial	NC State	Iowa St.
56. Paul Kr.: 313 (-347)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Penn St.
57. Damien R.: 305 (-422)	SMU	Oklahoma	Iowa St.
58. Kirt R.: 304 (-460)	NC State	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
59. Ryan W.: 303 (-377)	SMU	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
60. Marc R. #2: 297 (-333)	Oregon St.	Penn St.	Penn St.
61. Jaxon S.: 297 (-348)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Iowa St.
62. Carrie F.: 297 (-419)	Initial	Initial	Initial
63. Scott H. #1: 295 (-394)	Miami	NC State	Oklahoma
64. Brad R.: 294 (-405)	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
65. Jim W.: 283 (-405)	Initial	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
66. Howard S.: 282 (-409)	Miami	Miami	Kentucky
67. Becky H.: 269 (-372)	NC State	Kentucky	Kentucky
68. Max A. #1: 265 (-468)	Initial	Initial	Initial
69. Dan Du.: 261 (-406)	SMU	Oregon St.	Oregon St.
70. Max A. #2: 248 (-506)	Initial	Initial	Initial

There are 2 games going on right now, so here is the pick distribution:

Row Labels	Points Won	Pick	Points
Dennis R.	503	Georgia	36
Moochi the Man	531	Georgia	14
Matt Mal.	462	Georgia	42
Ally H.	460	Georgia	40
Amber the Beast	455	Florida State	23
Brian K.	454	Georgia	33
Matt Mei.	437	Georgia	29
Slave to Trends	437	Georgia	26
Steve M. #1	435	Georgia	29
Steve M. #2	416	Florida State	31
Mike S.	436	Georgia	42
Sally R.	447	Florida State	36
Eric G.	356	Georgia	36
Jason S.	424	Georgia	40
Faye N.	376	Florida State	4
Charlotte N.	329	Florida State	32
Daniel E.	413	Georgia	39

If Georgia Wins:

Charlotte N. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Eric G. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Faye N. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Sally R. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Steve M. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If Florida State Wins:

Brian K. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Daniel E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

…and the last game of the day – The Arizona Bowl:

Row Labels	Points Won	Pick	Points
Dennis R.	503	Wyoming	26
Moochi the Man	531	Wyoming	9
Matt Mal.	462	Toledo	41
Ally H.	460	Toledo	2
Amber the Beast	455	Toledo	30
Brian K.	454	Wyoming	29
Matt Mei.	437	Wyoming	17
Slave to Trends	437	Wyoming	16
Steve M. #1	435	Toledo	7
Steve M. #2	416	Toledo	29
Mike S.	436	Wyoming	13
Sally R.	447	Wyoming	7
Eric G.	356	Wyoming	24
Jason S.	424	Toledo	4
Faye N.	376	Toledo	40
Charlotte N.	329	Toledo	33
Daniel E.	413	Wyoming	15

If Wyoming Wins:

Charlotte N. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Faye N. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Steve M. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Steve M. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Toledo Wins:

Brian K. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Daniel E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Eric G. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Matt Mei. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

So, it doesn’t look anything is going to be decided today.  That means I actually have to pay attention to some of the remaining games.  It’s getting pretty tight though with so few games left and so few people still alive.  The goal, as always, is not to get eliminated.

Good Luck!!!!!