Biggest Bowl Blowout Ever.

 Can I start out by saying that the Georgia / Florida State game was exactly what the NCAA was courting when they allowed the transfer portal to be when it is and only had 4 teams eligible to win the National Championship.  Once Florida State players found out that they were quasi-screwed out of a chance to play for the National Championship, guys just started opting out left and right.  I feel like the you could’ve put a .500 MAC team out there against Georgia in that game and it would have been more competitive.  Not sure how many of you watched it until the end (The Orange Bowl and ESPN thanks you if you did), but they mentioned that this was the biggest score difference in Bowl game history.  So, for 50+ years, or however long they’ve been playing bowl games, no team has ever beaten another team by so many points.  Bang up job you did there, NCAA.  Really, keep up the good work.  You’re doing great.

The better game looked like it was in the Arizona Bowl, where Wyoming won on a last-second FG.  Unfortunately, it was on the CW, so I didn’t bother looking up what channel that was, and read my book this afternoon instead.

The upshot of all this is that Dennis righted the ship somewhat, and he is back on top of the probabilities of winning.  Not only that, but based on a technicality, Dennis R. is going to finish in the money this year.  Let me explain:

If you add up Dennis R.’s probabilities to win 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd, you get 98.44%.  That means there is only one scenario possible where he finishes outside of the top 3.  It is this:

Reliaquest	Wisconsin
Citrus	Iowa
Fiesta	Liberty
Rose	Alabama
Sugar	Washington
Championship Game	Alabama

I believe this would be an entire run of upsets, so I’m not thinking this will happen, but if it does, the top 4 places will end like this:

Name	Points
Ally H.	576
Steve M. #1	572
Moochi the Man	567
Dennis R.	565

The technicality is this – Steve M. #1 and Moochi the Man are the same person, and I have a rule that states that no one person can get more than one payout.  In this instance, Steve M. would get paid out for 2^nd, and Dennis R. would get paid out for 3^rd.  The reason for this is because unlike March Madness, it is entirely possible to corner the market at the top of the standings with similar picks – and that’s not really fair to everyone playing.  So even though, technically, he is finishing 4^th, he still gets paid for 3^rd.  Congratulations Dennis R.!  You are the first person to clinch one of the payout spots.  Which one is yet to be determined, but you are definitely making money this season.

I also wanted to make a note of Matt Mal.’s picks.  When I initially ran the numbers, he had a 0.24% chance of getting 1^st place.  He then proceeded to make a run of 11 straight games where his odds went up.  He won most of those games, but in at least 3 games he lost, but in losing increased his chances to get first place because his pick was for fewer points relative to the average pick.  It was only a last-second FG by Wyoming that sent his chances for 1^st crashing down.  He’s still got a great chance of winning 3^rd place (>10%), but I wanted to call out that run since I honestly wasn’t paying attention to his picks and then suddenly he was right near the top.  Great run, Matt Mal.!

Here is the updated matrix:

Total	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Dennis R.: 565 (-248)	36.9792%	38.5417%	22.9167%
2. Moochi the Man: 554 (-273)	24.4792%	19.7917%	11.1979%
3. Brian K.: 516 (-274)	6.2500%	14.0625%	21.8750%
5. Ally H.: 500 (-256)	22.3958%	3.6458%	9.1146%
6. Mike S.: 491 (-285)	Initial	9.3750%	4.6875%
4. Matt Mal.: 504 (-292)	1.5625%	1.5625%	10.1563%
7. Matt Mei.: 483 (-289)	3.6458%	2.0833%	3.6458%
8. Slave to Trends: 479 (-278)	Auburn	4.6875%	3.1250%
11. Steve M. #1: 464 (-342)	1.5625%	4.6875%	Toledo
34. Eric G.: 416 (-302)	3.1250%	Florida St.	3.1250%
10. Jason S.: 464 (-287)	Initial	Toledo	5.4688%
16. Amber the Beast: 455 (-331)	Toledo	1.5625%	3.9063%
9. Daniel E.: 467 (-300)	SMU	Iowa St.	0.7813%
12. Josaih T. #2: 463 (-328)	Initial	Oklahoma	Iowa St.
13. Matt N.: 460 (-327)	Initial	SMU	NC State
14. Josaih T. #1: 457 (-334)	Miami	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
15. Jay H. #2: 456 (-332)	Initial	NC State	Kentucky
17. Sally R.: 454 (-357)	Florida St.	Florida St.	Florida St.
18. Steve Dz.: 447 (-349)	SMU	Miami	Oregon St.
19. Klei R.: 445 (-321)	Kentucky	Ohio St.	Ohio St.
20. Sports Illustrated: 443 (-327)	Initial	SMU	NC State
21. Marc R. #1: 439 (-349)	Oregon St.	Penn St.	Penn St.
22. Andrew D.: 438 (-318)	SMU	SMU	Auburn
23. Mario M.: 436 (-310)	Oklahoma	Kentucky	Kentucky
24. Brent E. #4: 436 (-337)	Oregon St.	Oregon St.	Penn St.
25. Rich F.: 434 (-360)	Initial	Initial	Initial
26. Dylan B.: 430 (-328)	Initial	NC State	Iowa St.
27. Michelle L. #1: 428 (-344)	Initial	Initial	Initial
28. Mike N.: 424 (-333)	SMU	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
29. Jon F.: 422 (-357)	Initial	Initial	SMU
30. Brett W.: 417 (-351)	Miami	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
31. CAAT #4: 417 (-352)	Initial	SMU	SMU
31. CAAT #3: 417 (-352)	Initial	SMU	SMU
31. CAAT #1: 417 (-352)	Initial	SMU	SMU
35. Hutch H. #1: 416 (-368)	Initial	Initial	Initial
36. Steve M. #2: 416 (-395)	Florida St.	Florida St.	Florida St.
37. Hutch H. #2: 413 (-371)	Initial	Initial	Initial
38. CAAT #2: 412 (-357)	Initial	SMU	SMU
39. Michelle L. #2: 411 (-350)	Miami	Oregon St.	Oregon St.
40. Jay H. #1: 409 (-335)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Kentucky
41. Brent E. #2: 409 (-362)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
41. Brent E. #3: 409 (-362)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
43. Brent E. #1: 406 (-351)	Oklahoma	Kentucky	Kentucky
44. Tim N.: 392 (-317)	Initial	NC State	Iowa St.
45. Jim D.: 392 (-358)	SMU	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
46. Henry A.: 386 (-371)	SMU	SMU	Oklahoma
47. Pete J. #2: 385 (-401)	Initial	Initial	Initial
48. Pete J. #1: 382 (-404)	Initial	Initial	Initial
49. Paul Kr.: 381 (-347)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Penn St.
50. Scott H. #2: 380 (-386)	Initial	Initial	SMU
51. Mike W.: 380 (-396)	Initial	SMU	Miami
52. Faye N.: 376 (-380)	Auburn	Florida St.	Florida St.
53. Larry G.: 372 (-435)	Initial	SMU	Miami
54. Marc R. #2: 370 (-333)	Oregon St.	Penn St.	Penn St.
55. Jaxon S.: 366 (-348)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Iowa St.
56. CAAT #5: 361 (-408)	Initial	Initial	Initial
57. Adam E.: 357 (-389)	Oregon St.	Oregon St.	Iowa St.
58. Brad R.: 352 (-405)	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
59. Carrie F.: 348 (-419)	Initial	Initial	Initial
60. Damien R.: 346 (-425)	SMU	Oklahoma	Iowa St.
61. Becky H.: 343 (-372)	NC State	Kentucky	Kentucky
62. Dan Du.: 340 (-406)	SMU	Oregon St.	Oregon St.
63. Ryan W.: 337 (-412)	SMU	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
64. Scott H. #1: 337 (-415)	Miami	NC State	Oklahoma
65. Charlotte N.: 329 (-385)	Auburn	Florida St.	Florida St.
66. Jim W.: 326 (-405)	Initial	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
67. Howard S.: 322 (-429)	Miami	Miami	Kentucky
68. Kirt R.: 306 (-500)	NC State	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
69. Max A. #1: 299 (-477)	Initial	Initial	Initial
70. Max A. #2: 282 (-515)	Initial	Initial	Initial

Everyone in my family is now out for all spots, so it’s either a sad day or a glorious day, since they no longer have to care about any of these bowl games.  Tomorrow is an off day for College football, and then 5 games on Monday.  Sometimes, the last game is irrelevant in this pool.  I’m not sure whether I want that or not.  I’ll figure it out as we go.

Good Luck!!!!!