Go Jackets!!!!! edition.

We are finally living in a world where everyone has taken a loss.  It took the largest amount of points lost by any one team (UCF – 850 total points wagered) to do it, but Ally H. joins the ranks of the beatens after 10 games.  It didn’t really damage her standing much, as she still tops both rankings, but it maybe gives some hope to the rest of the field.

This also marks two straight (and 3 of 4)) upsets based on the Vegas point spread.  My strategy for this season was to take the top 14 games and pick only by the spreads and then assign maximum points to those games.  The idea was that virtually everyone was going to do that, so I didn’t want to lose ground picking wild upsets.  I think took the 14 closest point spreads and put a ton of points on all upsets.  My thinking was that people are probably not picking these games for much, so if I win a bunch of them, I can make up a lot of ground on the field.  The last 14 mid-tier point spread games, I kind of took out the dartboard for winners/losers and points.  We’ll see how that goes.  So long as a lot of these 2-3 point spreads end up in upsets, I’ll look pretty good.

To that end, I was looking at how everyone did this week.  There were 4 games during the week (since last Saturday’s smorgasbord of college games).  Only 4 people went 4/4 this week.  I was one of them, gaining 66 points.  Another was Larry G. who is currently in 23^rd in points and 14^th in net points.  The best over that stretch was Jay H. #2, who climbed all the way to #3 in points and 6^th in net.  The 4^th, and this is almost impossible to see, was my brother Kirt R.  I say that because he is currently sitting in 69^th in net points and 61^st in total points.  It’s been a real Jeckyll and Hyde season for him.  He started out 1/7.  He then rattled off 4 games in a row.  The downside is that the 4 games only got him 43 points.  Still, as they say, it beats losing.  It would be a run for all time if he managed to make it to the top 10.  I’m here for it.

All right, I’m sure 75-80% of you are skipping this entirely, so here are the updated standings:

1. Ally H.: 206 (-6)

2. Moochi the Man: 202 (-18)

3. Jay H. #2: 187 (-66)

4. Mike S.: 187 (-93)

5. Sally R.: 172 (-87)

6. Josaih T. #1: 169 (-20)

7. Dylan B.: 169 (-69)

8. Dennis R.: 166 (-35)

9. Steve M. #2: 165 (-131)

10. Brian K.: 162 (-28)

11. Matt N.: 159 (-75)

12. Michelle L. #2: 158 (-79)

13. Amber the Beast: 153 (-82)

14. Jason S.: 151 (-85)

15. Steve Dz.: 147 (-77)

16. Hutch H. #2: 145 (-79)

17. Brent E. #2: 144 (-87)

17. Brent E. #3: 144 (-87)

19. Marc R. #1: 142 (-22)

20. Jon F.: 139 (-74)

21. Brent E. #1: 138 (-35)

22. Josaih T. #2: 138 (-51)

23. Larry G.: 133 (-52)

24. Hutch H. #1: 129 (-95)

25. Sports Illustrated: 128 (-69)

26. Brent E. #4: 127 (-102)

27. Scott H. #2: 125 (-67)

28. Max A. #1: 124 (-65)

29. CAAT #1: 120 (-84)

29. CAAT #3: 120 (-84)

29. CAAT #4: 120 (-84)

32. Michelle L. #1: 117 (-84)

33. Matt Mal.: 117 (-89)

34. Daniel E.: 117 (-114)

35. Steve M. #1: 113 (-56)

36. Mike N.: 113 (-77)

37. Klei R.: 112 (-44)

38. Rich F.: 111 (-94)

39. Charlotte N.: 110 (-39)

40. Jim W.: 110 (-80)

41. Slave to Trends: 110 (-103)

42. Max A. #2: 107 (-82)

43. CAAT #2: 106 (-84)

44. Matt Mei.: 103 (-116)

45. Mario M.: 102 (-81)

46. Andrew D.: 101 (-37)

47. Scott H. #1: 100 (-32)

48. Jay H. #1: 98 (-27)

49. Pete J. #1: 95 (-89)

50. Adam E.: 93 (-50)

51. Howard S.: 92 (-92)

52. Faye N.: 91 (-99)

53. Damien R.: 90 (-46)

54. Jim D.: 89 (-31)

55. Brett W.: 86 (-47)

56. CAAT #5: 85 (-110)

57. Paul Kr.: 82 (-22)

58. Becky H.: 82 (-86)

59. Pete J. #2: 79 (-105)

60. Ryan W.: 77 (-107)

61. Kirt R.: 77 (-123)

62. Mike W.: 76 (-45)

63. Carrie F.: 65 (-78)

64. Henry A.: 63 (-29)

65. Tim N.: 57 (-20)

66. Brad R.: 56 (-89)

67. Eric G.: 54 (-31)

68. Marc R. #2: 51 (-15)

69. Jaxon S.: 36 (-30)

70. Dan Du.: 29 (-100)

…and net points:

1. Ally H.: 200

2. Moochi the Man: 184

3. Josaih T. #1: 149

4. Brian K.: 134

5. Dennis R.: 131

6. Jay H. #2: 121

7. Marc R. #1: 120

8. Brent E. #1: 103

9. Dylan B.: 100

10. Mike S.: 94

11. Josaih T. #2: 87

12. Sally R.: 85

13. Matt N.: 84

14. Larry G.: 81

15. Michelle L. #2: 79

16. Amber the Beast: 71

16. Charlotte N.: 71

16. Jay H. #1: 71

19. Steve Dz.: 70

20. Klei R.: 68

20. Scott H. #1: 68

22. Jason S.: 66

22. Hutch H. #2: 66

24. Jon F.: 65

25. Andrew D.: 64

26. Paul Kr.: 60

27. Sports Illustrated: 59

27. Max A. #1: 59

29. Scott H. #2: 58

29. Jim D.: 58

31. Brent E. #2: 57

31. Brent E. #3: 57

31. Steve M. #1: 57

34. Damien R.: 44

35. Adam E.: 43

36. Brett W.: 39

37. Tim N.: 37

38. CAAT #1: 36

38. CAAT #3: 36

38. CAAT #4: 36

38. Mike N.: 36

38. Marc R. #2: 36

43. Steve M. #2: 34

43. Hutch H. #1: 34

43. Henry A.: 34

46. Michelle L. #1: 33

47. Mike W.: 31

48. Jim W.: 30

49. Matt Mal.: 28

50. Brent E. #4: 25

50. Max A. #2: 25

52. Eric G.: 23

53. CAAT #2: 22

54. Mario M.: 21

55. Rich F.: 17

56. Slave to Trends: 7

57. Pete J. #1: 6

57. Jaxon S.: 6

59. Daniel E.: 3

60. Howard S.: 0

61. Becky H.: -4

62. Faye N.: -8

63. Matt Mei.: -13

63. Carrie F.: -13

65. CAAT #5: -25

66. Pete J. #2: -26

67. Ryan W.: -30

68. Brad R.: -33

69. Kirt R.: -46

70. Dan Du.: -71

But tomorrow is a Saturday, and that means another long day of football.  It’s another 7 games.  The good thing is that they are staggered in such a way that it more or less goes 2-2-2-1.  That allows me time between games to update things, so I’ll preview the first 2 games and then update as the day goes on.

Camellia Bowl

Vegas Line: Arkansas State -1

Median Pick: Northern Illinois for 1 point.

Mean Pick: Northern Illinois for 2.1 points.

Picks for Arkansas State: 31 (Average pick: 11.61 points)

Picks for Northern Illinois: 39 (Average pick: 12.56 points)

Bang!!  Here’s my strategy in action.  I took Northern Illinois for 29 points.  Only 2 people took Northern Illinois for more points than me, and one of them is Charlotte N, who not only killed everyone in the March Madness pool, but just went 3/4 last week to move all the way up to 16^th in net points.  That should strike fear in everyone’s hearts.  If she wins this, it is going to go down in achievement like John Wooden’s run at UCLA in the 60s and 70s, or Marie Curie’s Nobel prizes in Physics and Chemistry.  The only other person to take Northern Illinois for more points is someone currently tied with Charlotte N. in net points who goes by “Amber the Beast”.  I have no idea who this person is, but if she prefers to be addressed as “Amber the Beast” in a public setting, I think we should at least give pause and possibly deference to their picks.  I feel I am in good company.  We’ll see how the game goes, but I am surprisingly comfortable with my pick for it being a 1 point game in Vegas primarily because of the company I am keeping.

Birmingham Bowl

Vegas Line: Troy -8

Median Pick: Troy for 27 points

Average pick: Troy for 15.9 points

Picks for Troy: 53 (Average Pick: 26.68 points)

Picks for Duke: 17 (Average Pick: 17.35 points)

So, the Camellia Bowl is being played in Montgomery.  That is only 90 miles away from Birmingham, and they are being played at exactly the same time.  You’d think Alabama was a little crazy for football or something.  I get the feeling this game is the one you go to for maybe one of 3 reasons:  1. You went to Troy.  I am assuming if you went to Duke, you are some rich pretty boy, and your identity as a Duke alumni is more tied to the basketball team, and obnoxiously telling people you graduated from Duke than the football team.  2. You want to see Duke lose (see #1) or 3. You couldn’t get tickets to the Camellia Bowl and are jonesing for some live football.  #3 seems pretty unlikely since I doubt Northern Illinois or Arkansas State actually draw much.  If I watch any of this game, it will be for #2.  I have a grudge against Duke since my Georgia Tech days.  It’s part of my bloodstream at this point.

Enjoy the games everyone!!!!!

PS – Update on my Python project.  I was able to get Python to generate the rankings as they are right now.  My next task was to generate a table of all possible outcomes for games that had yet to be played.  It took a while to build a sample of that ( the Championship Game was a little tricky to get to work).  I was able to get it finally and I started testing how big I could get the table.  I was able to generate a table for the last 24 games (that is 2^24 = 16.7M scenarios).  I tried going up to 27, but I ran out of memory on my computer.  My next step is to try to build it on an AWS Workspace.  If I have to burn memory, it may as well be theirs, right?  I’ll see how much progress I make.