End of Day 1 wrap up

 All right, we get a day off before the next game, so everyone can get their bearings and actually enjoy their weekends, as opposed to spending the entirety of it glued to the couch.  Then again, if you are watching NFL games tomorrow, I don’t know what to tell you.

I had the Independence Bowl on tonight, but honestly, I was playing a time suck game on my iPad the whole time just waiting for it to be over.  I didn’t really care about either team, and it seemed like the game was pretty much over at halftime.

But it counts for points for a bunch of people, and that means we can have a Day 1 wrap-up.

We have 5 undefeated brackets after Day 1: Ally H., Dennis R., Mario M., Andrew D. and Jaxon S.  That’s some really good picking, as there were 2 upsets today if you go by the Vegas line (Ohio & Fresno State).  So, it wasn’t like you could just pick chalk and win.

It’s a topsy-turvy day in my family as my Mom and wife are both in the Top 10, while my Dad and brother are in the bottom 5.  I’m not faring a whole lot better, so for now, they have bragging rights in the family – there’s a long way to go though.  I’m not giving up hope yet.

Speaking of which, even with 7 games, no one has used more than about 20% of their points.  That tells you just how far we have to go yet.  The average sheet only used 10.86% of their available points today.  That makes today very much like the opening day of March Madness.  It’s not even like a tee shot in golf that gets you started on a hole.  Today was like a tee shot if we were playing a par-13 length hole.  There’s plenty of time and plenty of games to make up ground on the field.

Speaking of which, here is the current points standings:

1. Mike S.: 153 (-18)

2. Steve M. #2: 151 (-45)

3. Sally R.: 128 (-38)

4. Moochi the Man: 125 (-3)

5. Ally H.: 122 (0)

6. Daniel E.: 117 (-24)

7. Michelle L. #2: 112 (-40)

8. Dennis R.: 109 (0)

9. Jason S.: 108 (-51)

10. Josaih T. #1: 106 (-11)

11. Mario M.: 102 (0)

12. Steve Dz.: 100 (-37)

13. Matt N.: 99 (-56)

14. Jay H. #2: 95 (-66)

15. Larry G.: 91 (-52)

16. Hutch H. #1: 89 (-36)

17. Jon F.: 89 (-49)

18. Marc R. #1: 88 (-5)

19. Brian K.: 86 (-25)

20. Dylan B.: 86 (-37)

21. CAAT #1: 85 (-19)

21. CAAT #3: 85 (-19)

21. CAAT #4: 85 (-19)

24. Amber the Beast: 84 (-43)

25. Josaih T. #2: 81 (-36)

26. Hutch H. #2: 79 (-46)

27. Brent E. #1: 76 (-26)

28. Rich F.: 76 (-40)

29. Slave to Trends: 73 (-51)

30. Faye N.: 73 (-72)

31. Brent E. #4: 73 (-88)

32. Scott H. #2: 72 (-26)

33. Michelle L. #1: 72 (-44)

34. Scott H. #1: 71 (-9)

35. CAAT #2: 71 (-19)

36. Brent E. #2: 71 (-84)

36. Brent E. #3: 71 (-84)

38. Sports Illustrated: 70 (-37)

39. Becky H.: 68 (-37)

40. Andrew D.: 67 (0)

41. Matt Mei.: 64 (-36)

42. Jim W.: 63 (-35)

43. Carrie F.: 62 (-19)

44. Jay H. #1: 60 (-6)

45. Matt Mal.: 58 (-52)

46. Max A. #1: 56 (-42)

47. Mike N.: 55 (-33)

48. Pete J. #1: 55 (-42)

49. CAAT #5: 50 (-45)

50. Henry A.: 48 (-9)

51. Jim D.: 48 (-14)

52. Klei R.: 46 (-44)

53. Paul Kr.: 44 (-6)

54. Brett W.: 43 (-36)

55. Damien R.: 43 (-38)

56. Pete J. #2: 42 (-55)

57. Steve M. #1: 39 (-23)

58. Max A. #2: 39 (-59)

59. Tim N.: 38 (-18)

60. Adam E.: 36 (-16)

61. Howard S.: 36 (-77)

62. Ryan W.: 36 (-87)

63. Jaxon S.: 35 (0)

64. Eric G.: 35 (-13)

65. Charlotte N.: 35 (-29)

66. Kirt R.: 34 (-123)

67. Mike W.: 30 (-10)

68. Brad R.: 28 (-59)

69. Marc R. #2: 21 (-7)

70. Dan Du.: 12 (-84)

…and the net points standings:

1. Mike S.: 135

2. Moochi the Man: 122

2. Ally H.: 122

4. Dennis R.: 109

5. Steve M. #2: 106

6. Mario M.: 102

7. Josaih T. #1: 95

8. Daniel E.: 93

9. Sally R.: 90

10. Marc R. #1: 83

11. Michelle L. #2: 72

12. Andrew D.: 67

13. CAAT #1: 66

13. CAAT #3: 66

13. CAAT #4: 66

16. Steve Dz.: 63

17. Scott H. #1: 62

18. Brian K.: 61

19. Jason S.: 57

20. Jay H. #1: 54

21. Hutch H. #1: 53

22. CAAT #2: 52

23. Brent E. #1: 50

24. Dylan B.: 49

25. Scott H. #2: 46

26. Josaih T. #2: 45

27. Matt N.: 43

27. Carrie F.: 43

29. Amber the Beast: 41

30. Jon F.: 40

31. Larry G.: 39

31. Henry A.: 39

33. Paul Kr.: 38

34. Rich F.: 36

35. Jaxon S.: 35

36. Jim D.: 34

37. Hutch H. #2: 33

37. Sports Illustrated: 33

39. Becky H.: 31

40. Jay H. #2: 29

41. Michelle L. #1: 28

41. Matt Mei.: 28

41. Jim W.: 28

44. Slave to Trends: 22

44. Mike N.: 22

44. Eric G.: 22

47. Tim N.: 20

47. Adam E.: 20

47. Mike W.: 20

50. Steve M. #1: 16

51. Max A. #1: 14

51. Marc R. #2: 14

53. Pete J. #1: 13

54. Brett W.: 7

55. Matt Mal.: 6

55. Charlotte N.: 6

57. CAAT #5: 5

57. Damien R.: 5

59. Klei R.: 2

60. Faye N.: 1

61. Dan Du.: 0

62. Brent E. #2: -13

62. Brent E. #3: -13

62. Pete J. #2: -13

65. Brent E. #4: -15

66. Max A. #2: -20

67. Brad R.: -31

68. Howard S.: -41

69. Ryan W.: -51

70. Kirt R.: -89

I feel like Mike S. has been lurking around the top all day in both categories.  He’s used a lot of points to get to the top, but he’s also won a lot of those games.  He went 6-1 today and the only game he lost cost him 18 points, while winning 6 games worth between 17 & 33 points, so only one game as a top 10 game.  Lots of points still left on the board for him.  Great start to the pool Mike S.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

Like I said, no game tomorrow, but I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of the next bowl game, the Famous Toastery Bowl (whatever that is).

I also had an epiphany tonight.  Every year, once the number of games dwindles down to a reasonable level, I run some Excel programs to figure out probabilities of winning and eliminations, etc.  I do this in Excel, and the number of rows in Excel dictates how many games have to be left before I can run the analysis.  My epiphany was – why don’t I build some Python code to do the same thing and avoid using Excel altogether?  Python has much more capability to handle large data sets than Excel does, and it could greatly expand the amount of data I need to process.  In theory, I could generate odds of winning before Game 1.  I could also potentially incorporate a weighted odds of winning based on point spreads.  I think that would be amazingly interesting and worthwhile project to work on.  Not sure when that will happen, but now that I’ve thought of it, it is definitely going to happen sometime.  Good times!!!!!

Good night and good luck to everyone!!!!