After the Pop-Tarts Bowl

 I gotta admit, I was a little let down with the Pop-Tarts Bowl.  Not so much that I lost a lot of ground on winning this pool with NC State losing, but I was promised that the mascot for the game was going to be edible.  I was really hoping that the guy in the Pop-Tarts suit would be descended upon by the winning team and eat him.  That would have been fun to see.  What they actually did was send the guy in the suit into a giant “toaster” on the field and then spat out a giant pop-tart at the bottom that was edible.  Meh….  Kinda cool, but not what I was expecting.

As for the results of the game, it looks like another in an inexorable march to getting Dennis R. his prize money.  With the 19 points he won with Kansas State tonight, he is now 81.15% chance of winning something, and over 50% likely to win the whole thing.  He is going to be a very hard person to catch.  This pool is getting close to the point where everyone is playing for 2^nd and 3^rd.

2 more entries fall from the ranks of the people that can win something, leaving us with 50 people left for 3 spots.

Here is the matrix:

Total	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Dennis R.: 430 (-92)	51.6937%	18.4138%	11.0469%
5. Slave to Trends: 396 (-163)	12.3983%	12.7955%	11.5840%
3. Brian K.: 410 (-176)	9.4777%	14.0925%	13.0096%
4. Sally R.: 406 (-204)	6.8654%	10.7854%	10.2534%
6. Ally H.: 377 (-176)	3.7730%	9.2646%	8.5790%
2. Moochi the Man: 414 (-233)	4.3676%	7.4885%	6.8029%
20. Amber the Beast: 334 (-219)	2.8376%	4.7963%	4.0878%
16. Brent E. #1: 342 (-201)	0.2869%	3.1148%	5.0644%
7. Steve M. #2: 373 (-275)	2.6011%	2.6637%	2.7857%
19. Faye N.: 338 (-240)	1.5040%	2.3814%	3.3773%
15. Matt Mei.: 346 (-240)	1.3819%	2.4785%	2.4831%
8. Klei R.: 369 (-223)	0.1658%	2.4261%	3.2466%
9. Mike S.: 366 (-220)	Initial	2.1729%	3.1169%
24. Steve M. #1: 322 (-268)	0.7278%	1.2538%	1.8946%
56. Marc R. #2: 238 (-168)	0.4517%	1.1749%	1.6652%
62. Eric G.: 222 (-200)	0.4578%	0.9552%	1.4125%
41. Matt Mal.: 279 (-224)	0.5386%	0.9257%	1.3407%
13. Marc R. #1: 349 (-220)	0.0122%	0.4532%	1.3438%
47. Charlotte N.: 264 (-235)	0.1572%	0.4639%	1.0432%
31. Brent E. #4: 312 (-254)	0.0534%	0.4333%	0.9583%
50. Adam E.: 253 (-261)	0.2070%	0.3001%	0.3581%
44. Jim D.: 274 (-207)	SMU	0.2243%	0.4562%
12. Daniel E.: 355 (-255)	SMU	0.1048%	0.4308%
18. Jason S.: 339 (-246)	Initial	0.0946%	0.4196%
21. Josaih T. #2: 330 (-252)	Initial	0.0061%	0.4898%
60. Paul Kr.: 231 (-224)	0.0183%	0.1129%	0.3306%
49. Mario M.: 258 (-257)	0.0153%	0.1460%	0.2528%
39. Andrew D.: 282 (-234)	SMU	SMU	0.4110%
29. Mike N.: 318 (-240)	SMU	0.0229%	0.3372%
65. Jaxon S.: 203 (-227)	0.0061%	0.1129%	0.1724%
68. Becky H.: 187 (-233)	NC State	0.1266%	0.1450%
36. Jay H. #1: 297 (-228)	0.0015%	0.0193%	0.2340%
59. Damien R.: 232 (-271)	SMU	0.0458%	0.1160%
30. Michelle L. #2: 317 (-270)	Miami	0.0168%	0.1328%
55. Kirt R.: 239 (-320)	NC State	0.0595%	0.0870%
66. Tim N.: 196 (-214)	Initial	NC State	0.1190%
57. Jim W.: 235 (-266)	Initial	0.0488%	0.0671%
17. Josaih T. #1: 341 (-257)	Miami	0.0076%	0.1068%
14. Steve Dz.: 347 (-283)	SMU	Miami	0.0483%
25. Dylan B.: 322 (-270)	Initial	NC State	0.0458%
26. Brent E. #2: 320 (-245)	SMU	SMU	0.0356%
26. Brent E. #3: 320 (-245)	SMU	SMU	0.0356%
69. Dan Du.: 182 (-277)	SMU	0.0122%	0.0061%
51. Ryan W.: 249 (-256)	SMU	0.0031%	0.0137%
58. Scott H. #1: 232 (-256)	Miami	NC State	0.0168%
10. Jay H. #2: 361 (-292)	Initial	NC State	0.0122%
45. Howard S.: 272 (-305)	Miami	Miami	0.0117%
53. Brett W.: 241 (-299)	Miami	0.0015%	0.0076%
64. Brad R.: 210 (-310)	Initial	Initial	0.0031%
52. Henry A.: 242 (-276)	SMU	SMU	0.0015%
11. Matt N.: 358 (-273)	Initial	SMU	NC State
22. CAAT #4: 325 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
22. CAAT #3: 325 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
28. Hutch H. #2: 319 (-290)	Initial	Initial	Initial
32. Hutch H. #1: 312 (-297)	Initial	Initial	Initial
33. Rich F.: 312 (-305)	Initial	Initial	Initial
34. CAAT #2: 311 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
34. CAAT #1: 311 (-294)	Initial	SMU	SMU
37. Michelle L. #1: 287 (-294)	Initial	Initial	Initial
38. Sports Illustrated: 285 (-279)	Initial	SMU	NC State
40. Jon F.: 281 (-268)	Initial	Initial	SMU
42. Pete J. #2: 278 (-289)	Initial	Initial	Initial
43. Scott H. #2: 275 (-275)	Initial	Initial	SMU
46. CAAT #5: 271 (-325)	Initial	Initial	Initial
48. Larry G.: 263 (-304)	Initial	SMU	Miami
54. Pete J. #1: 241 (-326)	Initial	Initial	Initial
61. Mike W.: 224 (-334)	Initial	SMU	Miami
63. Carrie F.: 220 (-301)	Initial	Initial	Initial
67. Max A. #1: 189 (-375)	Initial	Initial	Initial
70. Max A. #2: 172 (-413)	Initial	Initial	Initial

Last Game of the day:

Alamo Bowl:

Vegas Line: Arizona -3

Median Pick: Arizona for 6 points

Average Pick: Oklahoma for 0.3 points

Picks for Arizona: 39 (Average Pick: 17.26 points)

Picks for Oklahoma: 31 (Average Pick: 21.90 points)

If Arizona Wins:	Pick	Points
Brad R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	18
Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Oklahoma	20
Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	33
Brent E. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	33
Brett W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	24
Damien R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Oklahoma	26
Henry A. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	29
Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Oklahoma	17
Jim D. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Oklahoma	22
Jim W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	21
Josaih T. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Arizona	5
Josaih T. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Oklahoma	5
Kirt R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	41
Mario M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Oklahoma	17
Mike N. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Oklahoma	14
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	38
Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Oklahoma	31

If Oklahoma Wins:	Pick	Points
Brent E. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Arizona	26
Dan Du. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Arizona	19
Eric G. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Arizona	30
Howard S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Arizona	6
Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Arizona	17
Jaxon S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Arizona	30
Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Arizona	8
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Arizona	28
Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Arizona	29
Paul Kr. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Arizona	22

This is a really strange one.  More people took Arizona, but the average pick was on the Oklahoma side.  What that means is that the people that took Oklahoma, took them for significantly more than the people that chose Arizona.  That’s a strange phenomenon.

It also looks like more people are eliminated from 1^st place contention with an Oklahoma win, while an Arizona win would knock out more people from the 2^nd / 3^rd place levels.  I think a lot of that is what is happening to Dennis R., who is the 300-lb gorilla in this pool.  He has Oklahoma for 27 points.  If he wins, more people are out for 1^st.  If he loses, then more people in 2^nd / 3^rd are out.  That’s what happens when you have such a huge lead.

Good luck!!!!!!