Update and preview of 12/27 games

Everyday in the bowl pool, especially when there are 3+ games, it always feels like you just throw everyone’s picks in to a box, shake it up, and then see what happens.  Because the points wagered a variable, even people that picked the same things can have vastly different outcomes on the day.  Also, because points wagered is a variable, you can get some really wild swings when people pick the opposite sides of games.  For instance, If I start the day tied with someone, but there is a game we both feel strongly about – only in opposite directions, I may take Team A for 42 points.  The person I’m tied against might take Team B for 42 points.  Whoever wins that game started out tied with the other person, but is now up 84 net points.  That is enormous.  We get stuff like that all the time in the bowl pool.

I think it’s good to think of this pool as a marathon or a bike race.  There is a time when you need to strike to distance yourself from the field.  It’s just a question of strategy as to when that point will be.

So, today was a little easier than last Saturday.  All 3 favorites won today.  As a result the average person today won 2.14 games out of 3.  I think Saturday, the average person won close to that amount, only out of 7.  Here were out top 10 point winners on the day:

1. Brett W.: 103 (0)

2. Mike N.: 94 (0)

3. Brian K.: 87 (0)

4. Rich F.: 86 (0)

5. Hutch H. #2: 82 (0)

5. Hutch H. #1: 82 (0)

7. Steve Dz.: 80 (0)

8. Dennis R.: 78 (0)

8. Brent E. #2: 78 (0)

8. Brent E. #3: 78 (0)

8. Brad R.: 78 (0)

The Net points Top 10 is essentially the same 10 people.  I was curious how this affected their net points rankings:

Ranking	Net Now	Net Before
Brett W.	14	31
Mike N.	26	44
Brian K.	4	6
Rich F.	37	58
Hutch H. #2	9	21
Hutch H. #1	42	59
Steve Dz.	16	23
Dennis R.	2	3
Brent E. #2	18	26
Brent E. #3	18	26
Brad R.	66	70

Nothing too wild in these movements.  Nobody seemed to win it all today.  Some people went from marginally out of it, to closer to contention.  I was feeling pretty good about my picks, since I went 3/3, but then I saw that of all the 3/3 entrants, I got the fewest points out of it today.  I guess today wasn’t my big push day.

Here are the updated points standings after today:

1. Moochi the Man: 346 (-128)

2. Ally H.: 332 (-84)

3. Mike S.: 312 (-191)

4. Dennis R.: 310 (-64)

5. Brian K.: 300 (-98)

6. Hutch H. #2: 299 (-175)

7. Jason S.: 296 (-192)

8. Jay H. #2: 293 (-204)

9. Steve Dz.: 290 (-184)

10. Sally R.: 288 (-170)

11. Amber the Beast: 285 (-172)

12. Marc R. #1: 278 (-136)

13. Matt N.: 278 (-195)

14. Brent E. #1: 276 (-104)

15. Dylan B.: 276 (-189)

16. Klei R.: 272 (-135)

17. Josaih T. #1: 272 (-145)

18. Daniel E.: 272 (-186)

19. Brent E. #2: 270 (-171)

19. Brent E. #3: 270 (-171)

21. Slave to Trends: 269 (-148)

22. Mike N.: 254 (-176)

23. Steve M. #2: 254 (-232)

24. Hutch H. #1: 253 (-221)

25. Charlotte N.: 251 (-135)

26. Matt Mal.: 248 (-151)

27. Rich F.: 247 (-204)

28. Michelle L. #2: 247 (-217)

29. Larry G.: 246 (-200)

30. Brent E. #4: 244 (-189)

31. Brett W.: 241 (-126)

32. CAAT #1: 241 (-202)

32. CAAT #3: 241 (-202)

32. CAAT #4: 241 (-202)

35. Jon F.: 239 (-190)

36. Josaih T. #2: 237 (-180)

37. Sports Illustrated: 228 (-200)

38. Scott H. #2: 227 (-197)

39. CAAT #2: 227 (-202)

40. Pete J. #2: 225 (-183)

41. Matt Mei.: 224 (-202)

42. Michelle L. #1: 223 (-209)

43. Mario M.: 222 (-150)

44. Andrew D.: 213 (-148)

45. Jay H. #1: 209 (-145)

46. Ryan W.: 208 (-177)

47. CAAT #5: 206 (-236)

48. Steve M. #1: 205 (-219)

49. Jim D.: 202 (-125)

50. Carrie F.: 198 (-181)

51. Adam E.: 198 (-197)

52. Faye N.: 197 (-226)

53. Scott H. #1: 195 (-96)

54. Howard S.: 195 (-228)

55. Damien R.: 194 (-174)

56. Jim W.: 192 (-193)

57. Pete J. #1: 180 (-228)

58. Paul Kr.: 177 (-132)

59. Mike W.: 176 (-198)

60. Henry A.: 172 (-164)

61. Max A. #1: 170 (-254)

62. Brad R.: 164 (-224)

63. Max A. #2: 153 (-271)

64. Marc R. #2: 141 (-90)

65. Becky H.: 137 (-165)

66. Tim N.: 128 (-116)

67. Jaxon S.: 122 (-109)

68. Eric G.: 121 (-110)

69. Kirt R.: 120 (-270)

70. Dan Du.: 68 (-226)

…and net points:

1. Ally H.: 248

2. Dennis R.: 246

3. Moochi the Man: 218

4. Brian K.: 202

5. Brent E. #1: 172

6. Marc R. #1: 142

7. Klei R.: 137

8. Josaih T. #1: 127

9. Hutch H. #2: 124

10. Mike S.: 121

10. Slave to Trends: 121

12. Sally R.: 118

13. Charlotte N.: 116

14. Brett W.: 115

15. Amber the Beast: 113

16. Steve Dz.: 106

17. Jason S.: 104

18. Brent E. #2: 99

18. Brent E. #3: 99

18. Scott H. #1: 99

21. Matt Mal.: 97

22. Jay H. #2: 89

23. Dylan B.: 87

24. Daniel E.: 86

25. Matt N.: 83

26. Mike N.: 78

27. Jim D.: 77

28. Mario M.: 72

29. Andrew D.: 65

30. Jay H. #1: 64

31. Josaih T. #2: 57

32. Brent E. #4: 55

33. Marc R. #2: 51

34. Jon F.: 49

35. Larry G.: 46

36. Paul Kr.: 45

37. Rich F.: 43

38. Pete J. #2: 42

39. CAAT #1: 39

39. CAAT #3: 39

39. CAAT #4: 39

42. Hutch H. #1: 32

43. Ryan W.: 31

44. Michelle L. #2: 30

44. Scott H. #2: 30

46. Sports Illustrated: 28

47. CAAT #2: 25

48. Steve M. #2: 22

48. Matt Mei.: 22

50. Damien R.: 20

51. Carrie F.: 17

52. Michelle L. #1: 14

53. Jaxon S.: 13

54. Tim N.: 12

55. Eric G.: 11

56. Henry A.: 8

57. Adam E.: 1

58. Jim W.: -1

59. Steve M. #1: -14

60. Mike W.: -22

61. Becky H.: -28

62. Faye N.: -29

63. CAAT #5: -30

64. Howard S.: -33

65. Pete J. #1: -48

66. Brad R.: -60

67. Max A. #1: -84

68. Max A. #2: -118

69. Kirt R.: -150

70. Dan Du.: -158

There are 4!!  Count ‘em, 4!!! Games tomorrow. 

Military Bowl

Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -10.5

Median Pick: Virginia Tech for 20 points.

Average Pick: Virginia Tech for 12.4 points

Picks for Virginia Tech: 49 (Average Pick: 24.31 points)

Picks for Tulane: 21 (Average Pick: 16.19 points)

I’m not 100% sure how bowl committees figure out who is going to play in their respective bowls, but I would think one of the things you would consider is whether or not the game is going to be competitive.  I understand that the answer to all things all the time is money, but if you put a team in a bowl game that is probably going to get killed, doesn’t it seem less likely that that teams fans will buy tickets to the game?  Seems reasonable to me, especially if the team is someone like Tulane, who probably doesn’t draw particularly well nationally.  Anyway, there seems to be a pretty strong consensus opinion that Virginia Tech is going to win this game and that everyone will get 20+ points as a result.  This may be one of those games, where it’s just a matter of degrees in the shift in points.  Like whether you win 25 or 35 points.  Then again, Steve M. #1 is making a bold push for relevance putting 41 on Tulane.  Good luck, Steve!!!

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Vegas Line: West Virginia -6.5

Median Pick: West Virginia for 10 points

Average Pick: West Virginia for 4.2 points

Picks for West Virginia: 40 (Average pick: 21.60 points)

Picks for North Carolina: 30 (Average pick: 18.20 points)

I know that I’ve griped about players in the transfer portal not playing in these games, and it taking away from the games, but there are other things that take away from these games, and this is one example of it.  North Carolina had a pretty good season.  They have a good record and they are going to a decent mid-tier bowl – but their starting QB all year is not going to play in this game.  The reason is because he is going to go the NFL draft and doesn’t want to risk injury.  Fine.  That really sucks for the rest of the North Carolina team that is going to play this game, because now they are short handed and playing with essentially a back-up QB.

Here's what I don’t understand.  I am going to assume that all NCAA games are essentially just there so that NFL scouts can get game tape together for potential draftees.  Why is it only the last game that the players opt out of.  I think the common argument is that they don’t want to risk injury prior to the draft.  Well, every time you play, you are risking injury.  I would argue it would be more consistent for a player like Drake Maye to play only as many games as he thinks is required to maximize his draft stock.  Given where he was projected pre-season to go, that may have meant he plays no games this season, or maybe half the season.  I’m not sure what the right number of games is, but I severely doubt it is “all but 1”.  Arguments to the contrary seem disingenuous to me – and to be honest, it feels a little like screwing your team over, which doesn’t sit all that well with me.  Then again, I’m not about to be drafted into the NFL, so easy for me to say.

Holiday Bowl:

Vegas Line: Louisville -7

Median Pick: Louisville for 25

Average Pick: Louisville for 13.5

Picks for Louisville: 52 (Average pick: 25.58 points)

Picks for USC: 18 (Average pick: 20.39 points)

Bowl games sometime have this interesting dynamic when teams like this play.  When USC started the season, I bet if you had told them that they were going to play in the Holiday Bowl, they would have been very disappointed.  With Louisville, they may have thought that was a decent outcome.  Anyway, with teams like USC, or Notre Dame or Texas or Ohio State or any of these schools that feels ordained by God to have a Championship contender every year, I imagine it is very hard to get motivated to play in a mid-tier bowl game.  The one year I won this pool, I largely won because Georgia Tech beat an underachieving USC team in the Sun Bowl as 7 point underdogs because USC pretty much didn’t want to go to El Paso to play in a December 27^th game.  I feel like this is a similar dynamic.  I won’t be at all surprised to see Louisville crush USC in this game.

To my earlier point on picking teams, I bet there was another team that would’ve made for a more competitive game, but this game is being played in San Diego, and that’s just down the road from USC, so I bet they draw a ton of fans.  Again, the answer to all your questions is money.

Texas Bowl

Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -3

Median Pick: Oklahoma State for 3 points

Average Pick: Oklahoma State for 2.6 points

Picks for Oklahoma State: 36 (Average Pick: 18.58 points)

Picks for Texas A&M: 34 (Average Pick: 14.41 points)

This game looks great.  And by “great”, I mean “unpredictable”.  That distribution tells me that hardly anyone could decide what to do with this game.  At the start of the bowl pool, I make a reference sheet with point spreads and median picks, etc.  I noticed that since the start of the bowl season, the line has moved from Texas A&M -2.5 to Oklahoma State -3.  That’s a huge swing, and I haven’t been paying that close of attention to understand why.  Still, it makes this game very interesting.  I hope this starts to separate the field a little bit.

Depending on how late the Texas Bowl ends, I should be able to generate odds for at least 1^st place tomorrow night.  More on that tomorrow.  I’m genuinely curious what that is going to look like.  It’s been an interesting pool so far.

Good luck everyone!!!!