Thursday, March 16, 2023

2023 March Madness - End of Day 1

 I always say I’m happy if there is one upset in a set of 4 games.  There was one upset in these games, but it wasn’t all that interesting.  It was Penn State as a 10 over Texas A&M as a 7.  I have to eat some crow about how good Texas A&M was.  They were never in the game against Penn State.  It was a pretty bad performance by them.

Some of the other games that weren’t upsets were a lot closer.  I was really sweating out the Houston / Northern Kentucky game.  I said that I’m a ride or die Houston fan this season, but they look like a lot different team without Marcus Sasser.  It’s pretty hard to lose a 1st team All-American right at the end of the season and be the same team. I’m officially worried about them.

Tennessee almost collapsed against Louisiana, but still managed to pull it out.  That was kind of what I thought might happen in that game.  I’m not sold on Tennessee.  Honestly, they did lose their point guard at the end of the season, so they are similar to Houston in that respect.  I don’t want my favorite team to be associated with Tennessee at this time of the year.  That’s not good.

To complete the injury block in the NCAA tournament, UCLA also lost some people at the end of the season.  The difference is that they looked about as good as anyone today.  They crushed UNC Asheville the way you want to see if you picked them to do anything.

I’m going to take a point of personal privilege here:  It’s not a “Euro-step”, it’s a travelling violation.

Looking at the standings, we have quite an anomaly.  Jay H. only submitted 2 brackets.  In one, he is alone in 1st place with 14 points (the only person to get 14 right).  He also is in dead last with 7 and a loss of 47 points.  That’s pretty incredible.  I don’t think you could do that if you tried.  I’m impressed.

So, as I mentioned, Jay H. is the only person to get 14 games right.  If you want to know how upsets did today, the Gutless bracket is a good indicator.  It managed to get 12 right.  Since that bracket is only by the seeds, you can see what that would get you.  For one day, it would get you 12, but it would hgave cost you 12 as well, for 26th place.  I’ve always said that picking only by the seeds will keep you alive for a long time, but probably won’t get you to the top.  I feel very strongly that the way to win these pools is to pick some upsets and then have those upsets win – or at least minimize the damage of big upsets.

As a group we really struggled today.  The median number of points won was 10.  The median number points lost was 15.  Noah N. and Melody T. still have all 16 of their Sweet 16 teams alive.  There are 28 brackets that have only 1 Sweet 16 team out.  25 people are missing only 2 Sweet 16 teams.  I also feel like these are important numbers.  One key thing that correlates to winning is not having a lot of advanced points missing.  You want to be able to get as many points as possible.  That always gives you a chance.  You still have to win those games, but at least you have a chance.  That’s kind of what you want.

So, here are the points rankings:

1. Jay H. #2: 14 (-6) - Texas

2. Noah N.: 13 (-3) - Alabama

3. Pete J. #5: 13 (-11) - Alabama

4. Ryan W.: 13 (-17) - Purdue

5. April K.: 13 (-19) - Purdue

6. Chad L. #1: 13 (-21) - Duke

7. Max A. #1: 13 (-35) - Houston

8. Brian K.: 12 (-6) - Alabama

8. Dan D.: 12 (-6) - Purdue

8. Irene H. #3: 12 (-6) - Alabama

8. Irene H. #5: 12 (-6) - Marquette

8. Luis B. #4: 12 (-6) - Alabama

8. Mason A. #2: 12 (-6) - Gonzaga

8. Michael S.: 12 (-6) - Houston

8. Pete J. #1: 12 (-6) - Houston

16. Stephen C.: 12 (-8) - Alabama

17. Brent E. #1: 12 (-10) - Alabama

17. Brent E. #4: 12 (-10) - Purdue

17. CAAT #1 (Adam O.): 12 (-10) - Purdue

17. Deanna T.: 12 (-10) - Kansas

17. Dustin D. #1: 12 (-10) - Houston

17. Emily T.: 12 (-10) - Alabama

17. Jacob A.: 12 (-10) - UCLA

17. Quinn1130 (Brett G.): 12 (-10) - Duke

17. Snoop Dogg: 12 (-10) - UCLA

26. Hutch H. #1: 12 (-12) - Kansas

26. Mason A. #4: 12 (-12) - UCLA

26. RB Blackburn: 12 (-12) - Indiana

26. Sacrificial Gutless Bracket: 12 (-12) - Alabama

26. Tom W Bel.: 12 (-12) - Kansas

31. Brent E. #3: 12 (-16) - Alabama

31. Chad L. #2: 12 (-16) - Gonzaga

33. Elizabeth N. #1: 12 (-18) - Houston

33. JB Erickson: 12 (-18) - Gonzaga

33. Tim D. #2: 12 (-18) - Purdue

36. Andy Katz: 12 (-20) - Purdue

36. Matt O.: 12 (-20) - UCLA

38. Greg L.: 12 (-24) - Purdue

39. Eric V. #3: 12 (-34) - Texas

39. Kealoha G.: 12 (-34) - Houston

41. Carrie F.: 12 (-38) - UCLA

41. Mindi W.: 12 (-38) - UCLA

43. Schmuidos #2 (Bob & Max): 12 (-72) - Arizona

44. Barack O.: 11 (-7) - Duke

44. Brandon B.: 11 (-7) - Texas

44. Damien R. #4: 11 (-7) - Alabama

44. Dylan B.: 11 (-7) - Marquette

44. House Rules (Jacob S.): 11 (-7) - Houston

44. Irene H. #6: 11 (-7) - Houston

44. Jared B.: 11 (-7) - Kansas

44. Jim W.: 11 (-7) - Alabama

44. Kylan T.: 11 (-7) - Purdue

44. Pete J. #2: 11 (-7) - Alabama

54. Andrew D. #2: 11 (-9) - Houston

54. Baily T.: 11 (-9) - Purdue

54. Becky H.: 11 (-9) - Marquette

54. Dustin D. #2: 11 (-9) - Kansas

54. Dustin D. #3: 11 (-9) - Houston

54. Howard S. #2: 11 (-9) - Texas

54. Melissa W.: 11 (-9) - Gonzaga

54. TJ Val.: 11 (-9) - Houston

62. Andrew D. #1: 11 (-11) - Houston

62. Brent E. #2: 11 (-11) - Marquette

62. Damien R. #2: 11 (-11) - Alabama

62. Dawn G.: 11 (-11) - Gonzaga

62. Karen C.: 11 (-11) - UCLA

62. Kirt R. #2: 11 (-11) - Houston

62. Kristin G.: 11 (-11) - Kansas

62. Miela314 (Brett G.): 11 (-11) - Alabama

62. Shanky G.: 11 (-11) - Houston

62. William M. #1: 11 (-11) - Alabama

72. Chris M.: 11 (-13) - Purdue

72. Connor W.: 11 (-13) - Alabama

72. D Row (Dennis R.): 11 (-13) - Purdue

72. Dianna A.: 11 (-13) - Texas

72. Jason S.: 11 (-13) - Houston

72. Mary Lou H.: 11 (-13) - Houston

72. Mike W.: 11 (-13) - Marquette

72. Pete J. #3: 11 (-13) - Marquette

72. Scott H. #1: 11 (-13) - Alabama

72. Tim D. #1: 11 (-13) - Alabama

72. Tomas L.: 11 (-13) - Houston

83. Chris L. #1: 11 (-15) - Alabama

83. Chris L. #2: 11 (-15) - Houston

85. Klei R. #3: 11 (-17) - UCLA

85. Samer C.: 11 (-17) - Alabama

87. Elliot N.: 11 (-19) - Houston

87. Mike N.: 11 (-19) - Duke

89. Szecho L.: 11 (-21) - UCLA

90. Craig G.: 11 (-25) - Kansas

90. Nick I.: 11 (-25) - UCLA

90. Scarlett H.: 11 (-25) - Kansas

93. Alyssa B.: 11 (-31) - Purdue

94. Adam E.: 11 (-35) - Texas

94. Brent S. #2: 11 (-35) - Texas

94. Matt N.: 11 (-35) - Houston

97. Daniel E.: 11 (-49) - UCLA

98. Chad L. #3: 11 (-67) - Arizona

98. Marblesox: 11 (-67) - Arizona

100. James P.: 11 (-69) - Arizona

101. Melody T.: 10 (-6) - Baylor

102. Ally H.: 10 (-8) - Alabama

102. Chun W. #3: 10 (-8) - Texas

102. Chun W. #4: 10 (-8) - Houston

102. Hack a Zach (Dave F.): 10 (-8) - Purdue

102. Jeremy H.: 10 (-8) - Kentucky

102. Pete J. #4: 10 (-8) - Connecticut

102. Stefon K.: 10 (-8) - Kansas

109. Amanda R.: 10 (-10) - Baylor

109. Cicely K.: 10 (-10) - Alabama

109. Dave A.: 10 (-10) - Purdue

109. Eric V. #2: 10 (-10) - Alabama

109. Hurry Up #1: 10 (-10) - Gonzaga

109. Klei R. #4: 10 (-10) - Purdue

115. Andrew D. #3: 10 (-12) - Alabama

115. Bret K. #1: 10 (-12) - Purdue

115. Cool Guy (Wytosick): 10 (-12) - Marquette

115. Eric V. #1: 10 (-12) - Houston

115. Luis B. #1: 10 (-12) - Alabama

115. Luis B. #3: 10 (-12) - Alabama

115. Luis B. #5: 10 (-12) - Alabama

115. Luis B. #6: 10 (-12) - Alabama

115. Nick D.: 10 (-12) - Purdue

115. Rob I. #1: 10 (-12) - San Diego State

115. Scott H. #2: 10 (-12) - Houston

126. Chun W. #1: 10 (-14) - Kansas

126. Daisy N. #5: 10 (-14) - Houston

126. Devils (Brett G.): 10 (-14) - Houston

126. Dimitris M.: 10 (-14) - Alabama

126. Harrell R. #3: 10 (-14) - UCLA

126. Nick M.: 10 (-14) - Alabama

126. Scott K. #2: 10 (-14) - Houston

126. Stan C.: 10 (-14) - UCLA

134. Eric G.: 10 (-16) - Gonzaga

135. Brent S. #1: 10 (-20) - Duke

135. Chris L. #3: 10 (-20) - Alabama

135. Chris L. #4: 10 (-20) - Connecticut

135. John A.: 10 (-20) - Texas

135. Tiggy Tony (Tony N.): 10 (-20) - Duke

140. Bret K. #2: 10 (-22) - Texas

140. Chad L. #4: 10 (-22) - Purdue

140. Paul K. #1: 10 (-22) - UCLA

143. Marshmallow (Nikolajs B.): 10 (-24) - UCLA

144. Irene H. #4: 10 (-26) - Purdue

144. Schmuidos #1 (Bob & Max): 10 (-26) - Gonzaga

144. Steve D. #1: 10 (-26) - Purdue

147. Brandie H.: 10 (-28) - Duke

148. Chun W. #2: 10 (-36) - Gonzaga

149. CAAT #3 (Adam O.): 10 (-38) - Gonzaga

149. Harrell R. #2: 10 (-38) - Connecticut

149. Jaxon S.: 10 (-38) - Kansas

149. Jonny Y.: 10 (-38) - UCLA

149. Kyler T.: 10 (-38) - Houston

149. William M. #3: 10 (-38) - Kansas

155. Scott K. #1: 10 (-40) - Gonzaga

156. SD Azteco (Dan McK.): 10 (-42) - Gonzaga

157. Adalyn H.: 10 (-56) - Purdue

158. Brad R.: 10 (-68) - Arizona

158. Damien R. #1: 10 (-68) - Arizona

158. Paul K. #2: 10 (-68) - Arizona

161. Bret K. #3: 10 (-70) - Arizona

161. CAAT #2 (Adam O.): 10 (-70) - Arizona

161. Irene H. #2: 10 (-70) - Arizona

161. William M. #2: 10 (-70) - Arizona

165. Rob I. #2: 10 (-76) - Arizona

166. Hutch H. #2: 9 (-9) - Houston

166. Tim N.: 9 (-9) - Marquette

168. Chris E.: 9 (-11) - Baylor

168. Daisy N. #1: 9 (-11) - Kansas

168. Howard S. #1: 9 (-11) - Houston

168. Josh C.: 9 (-11) - UCLA

168. Josiah T.: 9 (-11) - Houston

168. Michelle L. #1: 9 (-11) - Alabama

174. Paul K. #3: 9 (-13) - Houston

175. Ben S. #2: 9 (-15) - UCLA

175. Daisy N. #3: 9 (-15) - Gonzaga

175. Daisy N. #4: 9 (-15) - Purdue

175. Damien R. #3: 9 (-15) - Alabama

175. Dan Dz.: 9 (-15) - Kansas

175. Irene H. #1: 9 (-15) - Houston

175. Luis B. #2: 9 (-15) - Alabama

175. Mark B.: 9 (-15) - Kansas

175. Michelle L. #4: 9 (-15) - Purdue

175. Pete J. #6: 9 (-15) - Houston

185. Bryce S.: 9 (-17) - Texas

185. Daisy N. #2: 9 (-17) - Alabama

185. Eric S. #1: 9 (-17) - Houston

185. Harrell R. #1: 9 (-17) - Texas

185. Hurry Up #2: 9 (-17) - Houston

190. Dustin B.: 9 (-19) - Gonzaga

190. Klei R. #1: 9 (-19) - Houston

190. Mason A. #3: 9 (-19) - Kansas

190. Valerie D.: 9 (-19) - Houston

194. Jackson I.: 9 (-21) - UCLA

194. James G.: 9 (-21) - Purdue

194. Veronica G.: 9 (-21) - Kansas State

197. Vang L. #1: 9 (-23) - Gonzaga

197. Vang L. #2: 9 (-23) - Gonzaga

199. Charlotte N.: 9 (-25) - Connecticut

200. Derek B.: 9 (-27) - Marquette

201. Jon F.: 9 (-29) - Purdue

202. Klei R. #2: 9 (-37) - Gonzaga

203. CAAT #4 (Adam O.): 9 (-39) - Connecticut

203. Kristina H.: 9 (-39) - Kansas

205. Chase L.: 9 (-45) - UCLA

205. Steve D. #2: 9 (-45) - UCLA

207. Chrissy S.: 9 (-57) - UCLA

208. Ben S. #1: 9 (-69) - Arizona

208. Chris T.: 9 (-69) - Arizona

208. Eric S. #2: 9 (-69) - Arizona

211. Upset City (Brett G.): 9 (-71) - Arizona

212. Niren D.: 8 (-10) - Texas

213. Brett W.: 8 (-12) - Gonzaga

214. Colonel Sander (Eric S. #3): 8 (-14) - Purdue

214. Tyler C.: 8 (-14) - Alabama

216. Derek H.: 8 (-16) - Duke

216. Elizabeth N. #3: 8 (-16) - Kansas

218. Mustard (Nikolajs B.): 8 (-18) - San Diego State

219. Max A. #2: 8 (-22) - Houston

220. Kirt R. #1: 8 (-24) - Houston

220. Michelle L. #2: 8 (-24) - Houston

222. Shawn D.: 8 (-28) - Purdue

223. Aaron E.: 8 (-34) - Creighton

224. Michelle L. #3: 8 (-38) - Kansas

225. Hero R.: 8 (-46) - Houston

226. Mason A. #1: 8 (-72) - Arizona

227. Sally R.: 8 (-78) - Arizona

228. Matt H.: 7 (-13) - Houston

228. W Lafayette Blues (Dave F.): 7 (-13) - Texas

230. Elizabeth N. #2: 7 (-15) - Alabama

231. Brandon H.: 7 (-31) - UCLA

232. Michelle L. #5: 7 (-33) - Marquette

233. Jay H. #1: 7 (-47) - Kansas

…and the net points rankings:

1. Noah N. (10)

2. Jay H. #2 (8)

3. Brian K. (6)

3. Dan D. (6)

3. Irene H. #3 (6)

3. Irene H. #5 (6)

3. Luis B. #4 (6)

3. Mason A. #2 (6)

3. Michael S. (6)

3. Pete J. #1 (6)

11. Barack O. (4)

11. Brandon B. (4)

11. Damien R. #4 (4)

11. Dylan B. (4)

11. House Rules (Jacob S.) (4)

11. Irene H. #6 (4)

11. Jared B. (4)

11. Jim W. (4)

11. Kylan T. (4)

11. Melody T. (4)

11. Pete J. #2 (4)

11. Stephen C. (4)

23. Ally H. (2)

23. Andrew D. #2 (2)

23. Baily T. (2)

23. Becky H. (2)

23. Brent E. #1 (2)

23. Brent E. #4 (2)

23. CAAT #1 (Adam O.) (2)

23. Chun W. #3 (2)

23. Chun W. #4 (2)

23. Deanna T. (2)

23. Dustin D. #1 (2)

23. Dustin D. #2 (2)

23. Dustin D. #3 (2)

23. Emily T. (2)

23. Hack a Zach (Dave F.) (2)

23. Howard S. #2 (2)

23. Jacob A. (2)

23. Jeremy H. (2)

23. Melissa W. (2)

23. Pete J. #4 (2)

23. Pete J. #5 (2)

23. Quinn1130 (Brett G.) (2)

23. Snoop Dogg (2)

23. Stefon K. (2)

23. TJ Val. (2)

48. Amanda R. (0)

48. Andrew D. #1 (0)

48. Brent E. #2 (0)

48. Cicely K. (0)

48. Damien R. #2 (0)

48. Dave A. (0)

48. Dawn G. (0)

48. Eric V. #2 (0)

48. Hurry Up #1 (0)

48. Hutch H. #1 (0)

48. Hutch H. #2 (0)

48. Karen C. (0)

48. Kirt R. #2 (0)

48. Klei R. #4 (0)

48. Kristin G. (0)

48. Mason A. #4 (0)

48. Miela314 (Brett G.) (0)

48. RB Blackburn (0)

48. Sacrificial Gutless Bracket (0)

48. Shanky G. (0)

48. Tim N. (0)

48. Tom W Bel. (0)

48. William M. #1 (0)

71. Andrew D. #3 (-2)

71. Bret K. #1 (-2)

71. Chris E. (-2)

71. Chris M. (-2)

71. Connor W. (-2)

71. Cool Guy (Wytosick) (-2)

71. D Row (Dennis R.) (-2)

71. Daisy N. #1 (-2)

71. Dianna A. (-2)

71. Eric V. #1 (-2)

71. Howard S. #1 (-2)

71. Jason S. (-2)

71. Josh C. (-2)

71. Josiah T. (-2)

71. Luis B. #1 (-2)

71. Luis B. #3 (-2)

71. Luis B. #5 (-2)

71. Luis B. #6 (-2)

71. Mary Lou H. (-2)

71. Michelle L. #1 (-2)

71. Mike W. (-2)

71. Nick D. (-2)

71. Niren D. (-2)

71. Pete J. #3 (-2)

71. Rob I. #1 (-2)

71. Scott H. #1 (-2)

71. Scott H. #2 (-2)

71. Tim D. #1 (-2)

71. Tomas L. (-2)

100. Brent E. #3 (-4)

100. Brett W. (-4)

100. Chad L. #2 (-4)

100. Chris L. #1 (-4)

100. Chris L. #2 (-4)

100. Chun W. #1 (-4)

100. Daisy N. #5 (-4)

100. Devils (Brett G.) (-4)

100. Dimitris M. (-4)

100. Harrell R. #3 (-4)

100. Nick M. (-4)

100. Paul K. #3 (-4)

100. Ryan W. (-4)

100. Scott K. #2 (-4)

100. Stan C. (-4)

115. April K. (-6)

115. Ben S. #2 (-6)

115. Colonel Sander (Eric S. #3) (-6)

115. Daisy N. #3 (-6)

115. Daisy N. #4 (-6)

115. Damien R. #3 (-6)

115. Dan Dz. (-6)

115. Elizabeth N. #1 (-6)

115. Eric G. (-6)

115. Irene H. #1 (-6)

115. JB Erickson (-6)

115. Klei R. #3 (-6)

115. Luis B. #2 (-6)

115. Mark B. (-6)

115. Matt H. (-6)

115. Michelle L. #4 (-6)

115. Pete J. #6 (-6)

115. Samer C. (-6)

115. Tim D. #2 (-6)

115. Tyler C. (-6)

115. W Lafayette Blues (Dave F.) (-6)

136. Andy Katz (-8)

136. Bryce S. (-8)

136. Chad L. #1 (-8)

136. Daisy N. #2 (-8)

136. Derek H. (-8)

136. Elizabeth N. #2 (-8)

136. Elizabeth N. #3 (-8)

136. Elliot N. (-8)

136. Eric S. #1 (-8)

136. Harrell R. #1 (-8)

136. Hurry Up #2 (-8)

136. Matt O. (-8)

136. Mike N. (-8)

149. Brent S. #1 (-10)

149. Chris L. #3 (-10)

149. Chris L. #4 (-10)

149. Dustin B. (-10)

149. John A. (-10)

149. Klei R. #1 (-10)

149. Mason A. #3 (-10)

149. Mustard (Nikolajs B.) (-10)

149. Szecho L. (-10)

149. Tiggy Tony (Tony N.) (-10)

149. Valerie D. (-10)

160. Bret K. #2 (-12)

160. Chad L. #4 (-12)

160. Greg L. (-12)

160. Jackson I. (-12)

160. James G. (-12)

160. Paul K. #1 (-12)

160. Veronica G. (-12)

167. Craig G. (-14)

167. Marshmallow (Nikolajs B.) (-14)

167. Max A. #2 (-14)

167. Nick I. (-14)

167. Scarlett H. (-14)

167. Vang L. #1 (-14)

167. Vang L. #2 (-14)

174. Charlotte N. (-16)

174. Irene H. #4 (-16)

174. Kirt R. #1 (-16)

174. Michelle L. #2 (-16)

174. Schmuidos #1 (Bob & Max) (-16)

174. Steve D. #1 (-16)

180. Brandie H. (-18)

180. Derek B. (-18)

182. Alyssa B. (-20)

182. Jon F. (-20)

182. Shawn D. (-20)

185. Eric V. #3 (-22)

185. Kealoha G. (-22)

185. Max A. #1 (-22)

188. Adam E. (-24)

188. Brandon H. (-24)

188. Brent S. #2 (-24)

188. Matt N. (-24)

192. Aaron E. (-26)

192. Carrie F. (-26)

192. Chun W. #2 (-26)

192. Michelle L. #5 (-26)

192. Mindi W. (-26)

197. CAAT #3 (Adam O.) (-28)

197. Harrell R. #2 (-28)

197. Jaxon S. (-28)

197. Jonny Y. (-28)

197. Klei R. #2 (-28)

197. Kyler T. (-28)

197. William M. #3 (-28)

204. CAAT #4 (Adam O.) (-30)

204. Kristina H. (-30)

204. Michelle L. #3 (-30)

204. Scott K. #1 (-30)

208. SD Azteco (Dan McK.) (-32)

209. Chase L. (-36)

209. Steve D. #2 (-36)

211. Daniel E. (-38)

211. Hero R. (-38)

213. Jay H. #1 (-40)

214. Adalyn H. (-46)

215. Chrissy S. (-48)

216. Chad L. #3 (-56)

216. Marblesox (-56)

218. Brad R. (-58)

218. Damien R. #1 (-58)

218. James P. (-58)

218. Paul K. #2 (-58)

222. Ben S. #1 (-60)

222. Bret K. #3 (-60)

222. CAAT #2 (Adam O.) (-60)

222. Chris T. (-60)

222. Eric S. #2 (-60)

222. Irene H. #2 (-60)

222. Schmuidos #2 (Bob & Max) (-60)

222. William M. #2 (-60)

230. Upset City (Brett G.) (-62)

231. Mason A. #1 (-64)

232. Rob I. #2 (-66)

233. Sally R. (-70)

It was a rough day for my family.  My Mom and Dad are both in the bottom 20, having both chosen Arizona to win it all.  Fun fact, there were 2 huge upsets today.  During both of them, my Dad was not here.  For the Virginia upset, he was in transit to my brother’s place.  For the Arizona upset, he was out getting dinner.  We had to break the bad news to him when he got back.  When we told him there was an upset, he was thinking it may have been Illinois over Arkansas or something.  I don’t think his brain even processed that Arizona could ever lose to Princeton.  Tough day for him.  Still, it was a fun day to spend with my Dad.

There are 4 games tomorrow morning, so here are the stats:

Game 17

Michigan State / USC

Vegas Line: MSU -2

Picks for Michigan State: 129

Picks for USC: 103

I’m not sure what to make of this game.  It’s a typical 10/7 game, so it should be close.  Both teams have showed flashes of being good during the season, but none of them were consistent.  I’m always pulling for MSU, being that I am from Michigan.  This year, I think I am pulling for them even more than normal, given the shooting that occurred there during the season.

Game 18

Xavier / Kennesaw State

Vegas Line: Xavier -12.5

Picks for Xavier: 212

Picks for Kennesaw State: 20

I have a theory that whatever team does best against the Vegas line on the year, that team’s coach should win coach of the year.  This year, I would have given that award to Mark Madsen at Utah Valley.  As a runner up, I would give it to Amir Abdur-Rahim at Kennesaw State.  He did a great job with this team.  If you want a major conference coach to give it to you, I would nominate Jeff Capel at Pitt or Jerome Tang at Kansas State.  All this to say that I like the Owls.  I’m not sure if I like them enough to beat Xavier, but stranger things have already happened.  12.5 points isn’t all that many points, and Xavier has a reputation for letting people down in the tournament.  Speaking of which, if you look at just the top 3 seeds in each region, Xavier is the only one that no one picked to win the whole thing.  That’s a lot of disrespect.  They aren’t that bad.

Game 19

Baylor / UCSB

Vegas Line: Baylor -10.5

Picks for Baylor: 215

Picks for UCSB: 17

With the Arizona loss, this game comes with particular importance.  People that have Baylor really have a chance to pick up up to 7 points on people that picked Arizona in the Elite 8 from this part of the bracket.  That being said, both of the big upsets of the day were in this bracket, o maybe this is the wacky region.  Maybe this is like the region Kansas came out of last year.  Remember last year, Miami and Iowa State made big runs in the region, but Kansas managed to make it.  If Baylor loses, that makes the region look similar with Alabama taking the place of Kansas.  Then again, maybe this is like the bracket last year North Carolina came out of, or Loyola-Chicago a few years ago.  Only time will tell.

Game 20

St. Mary’s / VCU

Vegas Line: St. Mary’s -4

Picks for St. Mary’s: 124

Picks for VCU: 108

This is the 12/5 game most people think will happen.  I would argue that St. Mary’s has been the most underrated team all season, but they did fade a little at the end of the season, and VCU is always tough, so it seems plausible.  Based on the numbers, this looks like it should be the upset of the 4 game block.  Only 43 people have St. Mary’s in the Sweet 16.  Only 23 have VCU, so most people think they can enjoy this upset and hope they immediately lose the next game.

All right.  It’s been a long day and I still have to drive home.  See you all tomorrow and good luck!!!!!

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