2023 March Madness- Probabilities for 1st place

We are all set!!!  The Sweet 16 is finally here!!!  I’ve calculated the chances of everyone getting 1^st place, but before I send those out, I want to say a few words before. 

First, I haven’t calculated the probabilities for 2^nd, 3^rd & 4^th.  If you are eliminated from 1^st, you may still be able to get one of those other places.  The payout for any of those is also pretty good, so don’t sleep on those.

Second, the probabilities are based on all outcomes being equally likely.  So, a Houston / Alabama final counts just as much as a Princeton / Miami-Florida final in terms of chances.  That makes the probabilities look a little skewed at the beginning.  For instance, the entry that currently has the most paths to winning is Rob I. #1.  He is currently in 94^th in points, and 44^th in net points.  The thing his backet has going for it is that he is one of 2 people that has San Diego State winning it all.  Regardless of almost any other games outcome, if SDSU wins it all, Rob I. #1 has a 93.65% chance of winning it all.  Same goes for Veronica G and Kansas State and Aaron E. and Creighton.  Even Steve D. #1 has a pretty high probability, even though he has Purdue winning it all.  That is because he is the only person with Miami-Florida in the Championship game.  He probably needs some help on the other side, but Miami-Florida will keep him alive for a while as long as they keep winning.

So, I’m not going to ditch the points, because points are how you win this thing, but I am going to shift my focus to the probabilities and who still is alive for the payouts and who is eliminated.  I do this with a matrix.  It shows your name and then your probability of getting each of the 4 payouts.  Once you are mathematically eliminated from one of them, I will put the name of the team that lost that knocked you out so you can seethe with anger over them costing you.  If you are eliminated on the first cut of the data, I just put “Sweet 16” there.  Here’s what it looks like:

Name	1st Place
Rob I. #1 - San Diego State	7.2693%
Veronica G. - Kansas State	6.8049%
Jason S. - Houston	6.3192%
Irene H. #3 - Alabama	6.1330%
Noah N. - Alabama	4.3218%
Aaron E. - Creighton	4.3182%
Steve D. #1 - Purdue	4.2999%
Matt O. - UCLA	4.2572%
Chun W. #3 - Texas	4.2027%
Cool Guy (Wytosick) - Marquette	4.1321%
Brian K. - Alabama	3.1887%
Brandon B. - Texas	2.8198%
Hurry Up #1 - Gonzaga	2.3499%
Pete J. #4 - Connecticut	2.0020%
Stan C. - UCLA	1.8127%
Brett W. - Gonzaga	1.8117%
Hack a Zach (Dave F.) - Purdue	1.7944%
Ryan W. - Purdue	1.7746%
Emily T. - Alabama	1.6968%
Chun W. #4 - Houston	1.6576%
Chad L. #2 - Gonzaga	1.4557%
Derek B. - Marquette	1.4394%
Chris L. #4 - Connecticut	1.3184%
Charlotte N. - Connecticut	1.2278%
Mason A. #4 - UCLA	1.2115%
Brent E. #1 - Alabama	1.2087%
Harrell R. #2 - Connecticut	1.1841%
Mason A. #2 - Gonzaga	1.1673%
Alyssa B. - Purdue	0.9749%
Rob I. #2 - Arizona	0.8809%
Snoop Dogg - UCLA	0.8001%
Andrew D. #1 - Houston	0.7751%
Michael S. - Houston	0.7131%
Josiah T. - Houston	0.6958%
Brent S. #2 - Texas	0.6592%
CAAT #4 (Adam O.) - Connecticut	0.5859%
House Rules (Jacob S.) - Houston	0.5742%
Irene H. #6 - Houston	0.5493%
Pete J. #5 - Alabama	0.5493%
Andrew D. #3 - Alabama	0.5361%
Dianna A. - Texas	0.5310%
Baily T. - Purdue	0.4333%
Dustin D. #1 - Houston	0.4211%
Valerie D. - Houston	0.4211%
Quinn1130 (Brett G.) - Duke	0.4028%
Mindi W. - UCLA	0.3947%
Luis B. #4 - Alabama	0.3906%
Mustard (Nikolajs B.) - San Diego State	0.3784%
Kylan G. - Purdue	0.3723%
Elizabeth N. #1 - Houston	0.3662%
Mike W. - Marquette	0.3662%
Paul K. #3 - Houston	0.3113%
Vang L. #1 - Gonzaga	0.2930%
Harrell R. #1 - Texas	0.2869%
Andrew D. #2 - Houston	0.2747%
Dan Dz. - Kansas	0.2441%
Ben S. #1 - Arizona	0.2197%
CAAT #3 (Adam O.) - Gonzaga	0.2197%
Scott K. #1 - Gonzaga	0.2197%
D Row (Dennis R.) - Purdue	0.1923%
Dimitris M. - Alabama	0.1767%
Jay H. #2 - Texas	0.1465%
Jacob A. - UCLA	0.1185%
Elliot N. - Houston	0.1099%
Klei R. #3 - UCLA	0.1099%
Matt N. - Houston	0.0854%
Chris L. #1 - Alabama	0.0793%
Carrie F. - UCLA	0.0732%
Jeremy H. - Kentucky	0.0732%
Kirt R. #2 - Houston	0.0671%
Chris M. - Purdue	0.0671%
Chad L. #3 - Arizona	0.0665%
Dan D. - Purdue	0.0610%
Josh C. - UCLA	0.0600%
Samer C. - Alabama	0.0559%
SD Azteco (Dan McK.) - Gonzaga	0.0488%
Connor W. - Alabama	0.0468%
Michelle L. #1 - Alabama	0.0407%
Bret K. #2 - Texas	0.0366%
Damien R. #3 - Alabama	0.0366%
Scott H. #2 - Houston	0.0305%
Eric S. #2 - Arizona	0.0244%
Dustin D. #2 - Kansas	0.0208%
Devils (Brett G.) - Houston	0.0183%
Eric S. #1 - Houston	0.0183%
Kristina H. - Kansas	0.0183%
Sacrificial Gutless Bracket - Alabama	0.0163%
Cicely K. - Alabama	0.0129%
Irene H. #5 - Marquette	0.0122%
Luis B. #5 - Alabama	0.0122%
Pete J. #2 - Alabama	0.0122%
Tom W Bel. - Kansas	0.0107%
Luis B. #3 - Alabama	0.0078%
Tyler C. - Alabama	0.0061%
W Lafayette Blues (Dave F.) - Texas	0.0061%
Adalyn H. - Purdue	Sweet 16
Adam E. - Texas	Sweet 16
Ally H. - Alabama	Sweet 16
Amanda R. - Baylor	Sweet 16
Andy Katz - Purdue	Sweet 16
April K. - Purdue	Sweet 16
Barack O. - Duke	Sweet 16
Becky H. - Marquette	Sweet 16
Ben S. #2 - UCLA	Sweet 16
Brad R. - Arizona	Sweet 16
Brandie H. - Duke	Sweet 16
Brandon H. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Brent E. #2 - Marquette	Sweet 16
Brent E. #3 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Brent E. #4 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Brent S. #1 - Duke	Sweet 16
Bret K. #1 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Bret K. #3 - Arizona	Sweet 16
Bryce S. - Texas	Sweet 16
CAAT #1 (Adam O.) - Purdue	Sweet 16
CAAT #2 (Adam O.) - Arizona	Sweet 16
Chad L. #1 - Duke	Sweet 16
Chad L. #4 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Chase L. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Chris E. - Baylor	Sweet 16
Chris L. #2 - Houston	Sweet 16
Chris L. #3 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Chris T. - Arizona	Sweet 16
Chrissy S. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Chun W. #1 - Kansas	Sweet 16
Chun W. #2 - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Colonel Sander (Eric S. #3) - Purdue	Sweet 16
Craig G. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #1 - Kansas	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #2 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #3 - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #4 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Daisy N. #5 - Houston	Sweet 16
Damien R. #1 - Arizona	Sweet 16
Damien R. #2 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Damien R. #4 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Daniel E. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Dave A. - Purdue	Sweet 16
Dawn G. - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Deanna T. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Derek H. - Duke	Sweet 16
Dustin B. - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Dustin D. #3 - Houston	Sweet 16
Dylan B. - Marquette	Sweet 16
Elizabeth N. #2 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Elizabeth N. #3 - Kansas	Sweet 16
Eric G. - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Eric V. #1 - Houston	Sweet 16
Eric V. #2 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Eric V. #3 - Texas	Sweet 16
Greg L. - Purdue	Sweet 16
Harrell R. #3 - UCLA	Sweet 16
Hero R. - Houston	Sweet 16
Howard S. #1 - Houston	Sweet 16
Howard S. #2 - Texas	Sweet 16
Hurry Up #2 - Houston	Sweet 16
Hutch H. #1 - Kansas	Sweet 16
Hutch H. #2 - Houston	Sweet 16
Irene H. #1 - Houston	Sweet 16
Irene H. #2 - Arizona	Sweet 16
Irene H. #4 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Jackson I. - UCLA	Sweet 16
James G. - Purdue	Sweet 16
James P. - Arizona	Sweet 16
Jared B. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Jaxon S. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Jay H. #1 - Kansas	Sweet 16
JB Erickson - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Jim W. - Alabama	Sweet 16
John A. - Texas	Sweet 16
Jon F. - Purdue	Sweet 16
Jonny Y. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Karen C. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Kealoha G. - Houston	Sweet 16
Kirt R. #1 - Houston	Sweet 16
Klei R. #1 - Houston	Sweet 16
Klei R. #2 - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Klei R. #4 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Kristin G. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Kyler T. - Houston	Sweet 16
Luis B. #1 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Luis B. #2 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Luis B. #6 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Marblesox - Arizona	Sweet 16
Mark B. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Marshmallow (Nikolajs B.) - UCLA	Sweet 16
Mary Lou H. - Houston	Sweet 16
Mason A. #1 - Arizona	Sweet 16
Mason A. #3 - Kansas	Sweet 16
Matt H. - Houston	Sweet 16
Max A. #1 - Houston	Sweet 16
Max A. #2 - Houston	Sweet 16
Melissa W. - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Melody T. - Baylor	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #2 - Houston	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #3 - Kansas	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #4 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Michelle L. #5 - Marquette	Sweet 16
Miela314 (Brett G.) - Alabama	Sweet 16
Mike N. - Duke	Sweet 16
Nick D. - Purdue	Sweet 16
Nick I. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Nick M. - Alabama	Sweet 16
Niren D. - Texas	Sweet 16
Paul K. #1 - UCLA	Sweet 16
Paul K. #2 - Arizona	Sweet 16
Pete J. #1 - Houston	Sweet 16
Pete J. #3 - Marquette	Sweet 16
Pete J. #6 - Houston	Sweet 16
RB Blackburn - Indiana	Sweet 16
Sally R. - Arizona	Sweet 16
Scarlett H. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Schmuidos #1 (Bob & Max) - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
Schmuidos #2 (Bob & Max) - Arizona	Sweet 16
Scott H. #1 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Scott K. #2 - Houston	Sweet 16
Shanky G. - Houston	Sweet 16
Shawn D. - Purdue	Sweet 16
Stefon K. - Kansas	Sweet 16
Stephen C. - Alabama	Sweet 16
Steve D. #2 - UCLA	Sweet 16
Szecho L. - UCLA	Sweet 16
Tiggy Tony (Tony N.) - Duke	Sweet 16
Tim D. #1 - Alabama	Sweet 16
Tim D. #2 - Purdue	Sweet 16
Tim N. - Marquette	Sweet 16
TJ Val. - Houston	Sweet 16
Tomas L. - Houston	Sweet 16
Upset City (Brett G.) - Arizona	Sweet 16
Vang L. #2 - Gonzaga	Sweet 16
William M. #1 - Alabama	Sweet 16
William M. #2 - Arizona	Sweet 16
William M. #3 - Kansas	Sweet 16

You can see for yourself if your bracket is alive or not – at least for 1^st.  When I’m done, there will be three more columns for 2^nd, 3^rd & 4^th place.  I think roughly 3/4 of the brackets are alive for something, even if it is just 4^th place.  So, I hope you all continue to follow the pool.

The next great thing is that because I know who will win in all scenarios, I can figure out if a particular bracket needs to win its next game in order to stay alive.  Often times, it is obvious.  Other times, especially if your probability is low, you may need a team you didn’t even pick to win.  That could be because your picks have a lot in common with someone else’s, and the result of the game could put them ahead of you on points and you can’t pass them back.  I always find those interesting.

So, I’ll put out a long list of who is eliminated from what payouts as a result of each games outcome.  Unfortunately, they play games simultaneously on Thursday and Friday, so I have to give the results from each game separately.  Sometimes, losing just one of those games won’t knock you out, but a combination of the two would.  Take Rob I. #1 as an example.  If San Diego State loses, he may not be knocked out entirely, but a combination of SDSU and whatever game is going on at the same time could.  So, it’s important to check the blog once games are over to make sure you are still alive.

Here are the points, for those that are interested:

1. Noah N.: 46 (-26) - Alabama

2. Andrew D. #1: 46 (-38) - Houston

3. Chun W. #3: 46 (-50) - Texas

4. Jason S.: 45 (-27) - Houston

4. Emily T.: 45 (-27) - Alabama

6. Irene H. #3: 45 (-35) - Alabama

7. Kealoha G.: 45 (-67) - Houston

8. Mike W.: 45 (-83) - Marquette

9. Kristin G.: 45 (-99) - Kansas

10. Chun W. #4: 44 (-36) - Houston

10. House Rules (Jacob S.): 44 (-36) - Houston

10. Luis B. #4: 44 (-36) - Alabama

13. Michael S.: 44 (-52) - Houston

14. Luis B. #5: 44 (-72) - Alabama

15. James G.: 44 (-124) - Purdue

16. Andrew D. #3: 43 (-37) - Alabama

17. Matt O.: 43 (-41) - UCLA

18. Connor W.: 43 (-45) - Alabama

19. Sacrificial Gutless Bracket: 43 (-53) - Alabama

20. Dustin D. #1: 43 (-57) - Houston

21. Brent S. #2: 43 (-65) - Texas

22. Matt N.: 43 (-69) - Houston

23. Luis B. #1: 43 (-73) - Alabama

24. Baily T.: 43 (-85) - Purdue

25. Deanna T.: 43 (-117) - Kansas

26. Brian K.: 42 (-26) - Alabama

27. Brandon B.: 42 (-38) - Texas

28. Veronica G.: 42 (-42) - Kansas State

28. Chad L. #2: 42 (-42) - Gonzaga

30. Snoop Dogg: 42 (-46) - UCLA

31. William M. #1: 42 (-54) - Alabama

32. Mindi W.: 42 (-62) - UCLA

32. Elizabeth N. #1: 42 (-62) - Houston

34. Elliot N.: 42 (-66) - Houston

35. Luis B. #3: 42 (-70) - Alabama

35. Luis B. #6: 42 (-70) - Alabama

37. Eric V. #3: 42 (-78) - Texas

38. Ryan W.: 42 (-94) - Purdue

39. Hutch H. #1: 42 (-102) - Kansas

40. April K.: 42 (-126) - Purdue

41. Irene H. #1: 41 (-47) - Houston

41. Mary Lou H.: 41 (-47) - Houston

43. Irene H. #6: 41 (-59) - Houston

43. Kirt R. #2: 41 (-59) - Houston

45. John A.: 41 (-71) - Texas

45. Pete J. #6: 41 (-71) - Houston

47. Schmuidos #1 (Bob & Max): 41 (-75) - Gonzaga

48. Hack a Zach (Dave F.): 41 (-87) - Purdue

49. D Row (Dennis R.): 41 (-91) - Purdue

49. Irene H. #5: 41 (-91) - Marquette

51. Chris M.: 41 (-103) - Purdue

51. Dylan B.: 41 (-103) - Marquette

53. Brent S. #1: 41 (-111) - Duke

54. Brent E. #4: 41 (-119) - Purdue

54. CAAT #1 (Adam O.): 41 (-119) - Purdue

56. Jaxon S.: 41 (-131) - Kansas

57. Pete J. #5: 40 (-40) - Alabama

58. Stan C.: 40 (-44) - UCLA

58. Mason A. #2: 40 (-44) - Gonzaga

58. Scott H. #2: 40 (-44) - Houston

58. Ally H.: 40 (-44) - Alabama

58. Miela314 (Brett G.): 40 (-44) - Alabama

58. Pete J. #1: 40 (-44) - Houston

64. Mason A. #4: 40 (-60) - UCLA

65. Klei R. #3: 40 (-64) - UCLA

66. Vang L. #1: 40 (-68) - Gonzaga

67. Kylan G.: 40 (-88) - Purdue

67. Tom W Bel.: 40 (-88) - Kansas

69. Quinn1130 (Brett G.): 40 (-92) - Duke

69. Pete J. #3: 40 (-92) - Marquette

71. Ben S. #1: 40 (-100) - Arizona

71. Amanda R.: 40 (-100) - Baylor

73. Tiggy Tony (Tony N.): 40 (-104) - Duke

74. Eric S. #2: 40 (-124) - Arizona

75. Hurry Up #1: 39 (-41) - Gonzaga

76. Samer C.: 39 (-45) - Alabama

77. Tyler C.: 39 (-49) - Alabama

77. Eric V. #1: 39 (-49) - Houston

79. Brent E. #3: 39 (-57) - Alabama

80. JB Erickson: 39 (-73) - Gonzaga

80. Nick M.: 39 (-73) - Alabama

80. Vang L. #2: 39 (-73) - Gonzaga

83. Jeremy H.: 39 (-101) - Kentucky

83. Brad R.: 39 (-101) - Arizona

85. Cool Guy (Wytosick): 39 (-105) - Marquette

85. Nick D.: 39 (-105) - Purdue

87. Melody T.: 39 (-109) - Baylor

88. Michelle L. #3: 39 (-129) - Kansas

89. Dimitris M.: 38 (-34) - Alabama

90. Brent E. #1: 38 (-38) - Alabama

91. Chris L. #1: 38 (-42) - Alabama

91. Chris L. #2: 38 (-42) - Houston

93. Devils (Brett G.): 38 (-46) - Houston

94. Rob I. #1: 38 (-50) - San Diego State

94. Eric S. #1: 38 (-50) - Houston

94. Max A. #2: 38 (-50) - Houston

94. Scott H. #1: 38 (-50) - Alabama

98. Jacob A.: 38 (-54) - UCLA

98. Cicely K.: 38 (-54) - Alabama

100. Luis B. #2: 38 (-58) - Alabama

101. Howard S. #1: 38 (-62) - Houston

102. Pete J. #4: 38 (-70) - Connecticut

102. Dianna A.: 38 (-70) - Texas

102. Josh C.: 38 (-70) - UCLA

102. Max A. #1: 38 (-70) - Houston

106. Damien R. #2: 38 (-74) - Alabama

107. Tomas L.: 38 (-86) - Houston

108. Becky H.: 38 (-98) - Marquette

109. CAAT #2 (Adam O.): 38 (-102) - Arizona

110. Alyssa B.: 38 (-106) - Purdue

110. RB Blackburn: 38 (-106) - Indiana

112. Derek B.: 38 (-110) - Marquette

112. Chad L. #3: 38 (-110) - Arizona

114. Andy Katz: 38 (-122) - Purdue

114. Brent E. #2: 38 (-122) - Marquette

116. Stefon K.: 38 (-130) - Kansas

116. William M. #2: 38 (-130) - Arizona

118. Andrew D. #2: 37 (-35) - Houston

119. Brett W.: 37 (-47) - Gonzaga

120. Daisy N. #5: 37 (-51) - Houston

120. Klei R. #1: 37 (-51) - Houston

122. Jim W.: 37 (-59) - Alabama

123. Josiah T.: 37 (-71) - Houston

123. CAAT #3 (Adam O.): 37 (-71) - Gonzaga

123. Chun W. #2: 37 (-71) - Gonzaga

126. Harrell R. #2: 37 (-75) - Connecticut

126. Scott K. #1: 37 (-75) - Gonzaga

128. Karen C.: 37 (-79) - UCLA

129. SD Azteco (Dan McK.): 37 (-83) - Gonzaga

129. Michelle L. #2: 37 (-83) - Houston

131. Rob I. #2: 37 (-95) - Arizona

131. Dan D.: 37 (-95) - Purdue

131. Bret K. #1: 37 (-95) - Purdue

134. Mike N.: 37 (-107) - Duke

134. Schmuidos #2 (Bob & Max): 37 (-107) - Arizona

136. Jon F.: 37 (-115) - Purdue

137. Kristina H.: 37 (-123) - Kansas

137. Daisy N. #4: 37 (-123) - Purdue

139. William M. #3: 37 (-131) - Kansas

140. Eric V. #2: 36 (-44) - Alabama

141. Harrell R. #1: 36 (-48) - Texas

141. Pete J. #2: 36 (-48) - Alabama

141. Marshmallow (Nikolajs B.): 36 (-48) - UCLA

144. Chris L. #4: 36 (-52) - Connecticut

144. Niren D.: 36 (-52) - Texas

146. Bryce S.: 36 (-60) - Texas

146. Dustin D. #3: 36 (-60) - Houston

148. Valerie D.: 36 (-64) - Houston

149. Harrell R. #3: 36 (-68) - UCLA

150. Jay H. #2: 36 (-72) - Texas

151. Carrie F.: 36 (-76) - UCLA

152. Chris L. #3: 36 (-80) - Alabama

153. Dan Dz.: 36 (-100) - Kansas

153. Michelle L. #4: 36 (-100) - Purdue

153. Paul K. #2: 36 (-100) - Arizona

156. Barack O.: 36 (-104) - Duke

156. Chris E.: 36 (-104) - Baylor

158. Steve D. #1: 36 (-108) - Purdue

159. Marblesox: 36 (-112) - Arizona

160. Jared B.: 36 (-116) - Kansas

161. Irene H. #4: 36 (-132) - Purdue

162. Irene H. #2: 36 (-136) - Arizona

163. Michelle L. #1: 35 (-45) - Alabama

164. Ben S. #2: 35 (-49) - UCLA

165. CAAT #4 (Adam O.): 35 (-73) - Connecticut

165. Jackson I.: 35 (-73) - UCLA

165. Paul K. #1: 35 (-73) - UCLA

168. Derek H.: 35 (-101) - Duke

169. Upset City (Brett G.): 35 (-105) - Arizona

170. Dave A.: 35 (-109) - Purdue

171. Chad L. #1: 35 (-117) - Duke

172. Daisy N. #1: 35 (-125) - Kansas

173. Scott K. #2: 34 (-38) - Houston

174. Howard S. #2: 34 (-46) - Texas

175. Bret K. #2: 34 (-70) - Texas

176. Hero R.: 34 (-78) - Houston

176. Shanky G.: 34 (-78) - Houston

178. Steve D. #2: 34 (-82) - UCLA

179. Daniel E.: 34 (-90) - UCLA

180. Elizabeth N. #3: 34 (-114) - Kansas

180. James P.: 34 (-114) - Arizona

182. Dustin D. #2: 34 (-122) - Kansas

183. Chad L. #4: 34 (-146) - Purdue

184. Charlotte N.: 33 (-55) - Connecticut

185. Daisy N. #2: 33 (-59) - Alabama

186. Hutch H. #2: 33 (-75) - Houston

187. Adam E.: 33 (-79) - Texas

187. Kirt R. #1: 33 (-79) - Houston

189. Dawn G.: 33 (-83) - Gonzaga

189. Kyler T.: 33 (-83) - Houston

189. Matt H.: 33 (-83) - Houston

192. Klei R. #4: 33 (-99) - Purdue

192. Mason A. #1: 33 (-99) - Arizona

194. Bret K. #3: 33 (-107) - Arizona

195. Chun W. #1: 33 (-115) - Kansas

196. Greg L.: 33 (-119) - Purdue

197. Chris T.: 33 (-135) - Arizona

198. Jay H. #1: 33 (-139) - Kansas

198. Tim D. #2: 33 (-139) - Purdue

200. Craig G.: 33 (-143) - Kansas

201. Damien R. #3: 32 (-40) - Alabama

202. W Lafayette Blues (Dave F.): 32 (-56) - Texas

203. Stephen C.: 32 (-64) - Alabama

204. Daisy N. #3: 32 (-68) - Gonzaga

205. Dustin B.: 32 (-76) - Gonzaga

206. Szecho L.: 32 (-92) - UCLA

207. Damien R. #1: 32 (-120) - Arizona

207. Sally R.: 32 (-120) - Arizona

209. Mark B.: 32 (-132) - Kansas

210. Michelle L. #5: 32 (-140) - Marquette

211. Scarlett H.: 32 (-144) - Kansas

212. Hurry Up #2: 31 (-57) - Houston

213. Nick I.: 31 (-73) - UCLA

214. Tim D. #1: 30 (-74) - Alabama

215. Jonny Y.: 30 (-86) - UCLA

215. Melissa W.: 30 (-86) - Gonzaga

217. TJ Val.: 30 (-90) - Houston

218. Mustard (Nikolajs B.): 29 (-91) - San Diego State

219. Damien R. #4: 29 (-95) - Alabama

220. Paul K. #3: 28 (-68) - Houston

221. Elizabeth N. #2: 28 (-84) - Alabama

222. Klei R. #2: 28 (-96) - Gonzaga

223. Chase L.: 28 (-104) - UCLA

224. Adalyn H.: 28 (-148) - Purdue

225. Shawn D.: 28 (-160) - Purdue

226. Eric G.: 27 (-77) - Gonzaga

227. Aaron E.: 27 (-97) - Creighton

228. Brandon H.: 26 (-86) - UCLA

229. Chrissy S.: 26 (-102) - UCLA

230. Mason A. #3: 24 (-152) - Kansas

231. Tim N.: 23 (-125) - Marquette

232. Colonel Sander (Eric S. #3): 21 (-143) - Purdue

233. Brandie H.: 20 (-168) - Duke

Nobody did better than 6/8 today.  Not many people had Florida Atlantic, so that part wasn’t surprising.  Michigan State and Creighton were also hard to predict, and only 8 people got both of those right. 7 of those 8 people missed on Miami-Florida, which is how you only get 6/8 being the top. 2 people managed to go 0/8 today.  That’s harsh one.  Tough break there.  Yesterday, our average was a little over 8 points.  Today it was 7.13.

Nobody got all 4 Sweet 16 teams from the South (Thanks a lot, Princeton).  Nobody got all 4 Sweet 16 teams in the East (Thanks again, FDU).  31 people managed to go 4/4 in the most chalky of brackets, the Midwest.  Much to my surprise, 8 people managed to go 4/4 in the West.  I thought Arkansas would have sorted all that out.  Great picking!!

The cleanest bracket going forward belongs solely to Brian K.  He only is missing Purdue from his Elite 8 and nothing else.  That is a great position to be in.  I would look for his probabilities to go up as games go on.  He has a lot of options going forward.

Brian K. is one of 9 people that still has all 4 of their Final 4 teams alive.  I wish I was one of them.  We won’t know until everything plays out, but the winner usually gets about 3 of the Final 4, but definitely gets the last 2 and the Champions right.  Unfortunately for Scott K. #2, he is the one person that has all 4 alive, but can’t win as of right now.  He probably is in great position for 2^nd, but there’s no path to 1^st.  Yikes…

69 people still have their final 2 intact and 144 people still have a champion alive.  Of the people that don’t have a champion alive, 23 of them still have a pathway to win.  It probably involves a lot of chaos and at least one more oddball thing to happen.  But that’s what I’m here to tell ya’.  Dustin D. #2 may be sitting in 182^nd in points and had Kansas beating Duke in the finals, but he still has a path to winning.  It involves Arkansas making the finals against Florida Atlantic or Tennessee and then winning a 2 or 5-way tiebreaker, but it’s a path…..

Something else I do is calculate who you need to root for in the Sweet 16.  Some teams you think you need to root for, but them winning or losing don’t affect your chances to win, while others are VERY important not because you took them, but because others near you in the standings took them.  That’s always a fascinating study.

So, I’ll be back with more info tomorrow.  I should be able to calculate 2^nd, 3^rd & 4^th place, and then eliminations for the first two games on Thursday.

Congratulations to those that can still get 1^st.  Keep the faith until tomorrow, those that are eliminated from 1^st.  2nd, 3^rd or 4^th is still a lot of money.

Good Luck!!!!!