2023 March Madness - Friday night preview and 1st game eliminations

I’ve got a good night’s sleep after last night’s excitement.  I’d like to think that tonight’s games will be that exciting, but given the point spreads on the games, it seems a little unlikely.  The smallest line is 4 points.  Most of the lines are a touchdown or more.  I guess that means if those teams can score upsets, it will have a huge impact.

Here are the previews of the 4 games tonight:

Game 53

Alabama v San Diego State

Vegas Line: Alabama -7

Picks for Alabama: 194

Picks for San Diego State: 15

Picks for Other: 23

Is this the most important game in SDSU basketball history?  Maybe.  It’s got to be in contention for that honor.  The only game I can think of that is comparable is the 2011 Tournament where Kawhi Leonard as a #2 seed lost to Kemba Walker as a #3 seed.  That may have been their best team in my lifetime, although the 2019-2020 team was also great, but we’ll never know how they would have done because of COVID.

104 people managed to pick these two teams to get this far.  You could argue that based on the seeds, this game is for the Final 4.  You also could have said that about the UCLA / Gonzaga game, but I’m not sure Connecticut fans would agree.  At this point, I’m not really ready to write any team off.

Here are the eliminations for this game:

If Alabama wins:

Ben S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Charlotte N. is eliminated from 1st,2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Cool Guy (Wytosick) is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Elizabeth N. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Hack a Zach (Dave F.) is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

JB Erickson is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Jeremy H. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Matt O. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Mustard (Nikolajs B.) is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Paul K. #3 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Rob I. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Rob I. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Schmuidos #1 (Bob & Max) is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Valerie D. is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.

If San Diego State wins:

Andrew D. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Andrew D. #3 is eliminated from 1st,2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Brandon B. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Bret K. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Bryce S. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Chad L. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Chris L. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Chris L. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Chun W. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Daisy N. #3 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Damien R. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Devils (Brett G.) is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Dimitris M. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Dustin D. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Eric S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Eric V. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Irene H. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Irene H. #5 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Kirt R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Luis B. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mason A. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Miela314 (Brett G.) is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Pete J. #5 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Samer C. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Tyler C. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

W Lafayette Blues (Dave F.) is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

William M. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Given that Alabama is the #1 overall seed, it should be no surprise that an Aztec victory here would cause major damage to a lot of people’s brackets.

Game 54

Houston v Maimi-Florida

Vegas Line: Houston -7.5

Picks for Houston: 168

Picks for Miami-Florida: 17

Picks for Other: 47

As you probably know by now, I am all-in on Houston.  I as really worried about them at halftime in the last game when they were down 10 points to Auburn.  Maybe I shouldn’t have been, given Auburn’s track record in this tournament.

I want to take a second to comment on one of the late games last night.  It feels strange to crow about this, but Tennessee and Rick Barnes especially will ALWAYS let you down.  We may have gotten the game wrong that they will do that in, but they will always do it.  Looking back, I’m still pretty surprised that they were able to handle Duke, but they got completely outcoached against Florida Atlantic.  All I heard about going into that game was how Tennessee just constantly fouled against Duke, but they never called anything.  It seemed like that got in the heads of the refs, because I saw a lot of calls go against Tennessee that I don’t think they would get otherwise.  Rick Barnes never really adjusted to that.  Every so often, I need to take stock of some teams and rethink my impression of them.  I’ve done this over the years with Villanova, Virginia & Baylor.  I am not falling for them beating Duke.  They choke in every tournament.

OK, rant over.  I’m sure I mentioned this before, but the first college I ever attended was Georgia Tech in a misguided attempt to be an engineer.  That didn’t work out for me, but my love for ACC basketball (and GT specifically) is still very strong.  As such, I’m a little sad to see how mediocre the ACC was this season.  Miami-Florida is the last team from the conference, and they are probably going to get clobbered tonight.  I’m not going to root for them because Houston is a team of destiny (in my mind), but it’s still kinda sad.

Here are the eliminations for this game:

If Houston wins:

Ben S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Brett W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Chad L. #3 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Harrell R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Rob I. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Rob I. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Scott K. #1 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Steve D. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

W Lafayette Blues (Dave F.) is eliminated from 4th place contention.

If Miami-Florida wins:

Andrew D. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Andrew D. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Andrew D. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Bret K. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Chris L. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Chris L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Chun W. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Chun W. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Daisy N. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Devils (Brett G.) is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Dimitris M. is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Dustin D. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Elizabeth N. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Elliot N. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Eric S. #1 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

House Rules (Jacob S.) is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Irene H. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Irene H. #5 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Irene H. #6 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

JB Erickson is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Jeremy H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

John A. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Kirt R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Luis B. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Mason A. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Michael S. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Paul K. #3 is eliminated from 2nd, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Samer C. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Schmuidos #1 (Bob & Max) is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Tyler C. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Valerie D. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Much like the Alabama game, if Houston somehow manages to lose, it will be a catastrophe for a lot of brackets.  They were the overall #2 seed in the tournament, so a ton of people have them making the Final 4, if not winning it all.

Game 55

Creighton v Princeton

Vegas Line: Creighton -10

Picks for Creighton: 29

Picks for Princeton: 0

Picks for Other: 203

I love this game.  There is a real chance that no one gets any points as a result of this game.  That being said, there are already at least 4 people that have to have Princeton win in order to stay alive, and that’s prior to knowing any of the results of the first two games.  It may be more.  If Princeton loses here, I can almost guarantee that those people won’t be too upset at Princeton for costing them a chance to win.  In reality, they should probably be mad at whoever Princeton beat to get here.  So, while Princeton losing may be the final dagger in the proverbial back of their bracket, the die was cast when Arizona or Missouri were beaten (to mix my metaphors).

The great thing is that Princeton may win this game.  That would be fun.  I’m not really here to root for the 1%, but I can suspend my distaste for the rich and powerful for 2 hours while basketball is being played.  I kind of imagine the Princeton players talking about the game while wearing cable-kinit sweaters, sipping brandy and smoking cigars at the tennis club.  They probably aren’t going to do that, but I bet you hear a whole lot more about what these kid’s majors are in glowing terms than you will hear for the rest of the remaining teams combined.

Game 56

Texas v Xavier

Vegas Line: Texas -4

Picks for Texas: 138

Picks for Xavier: 49

Picks for Other: 45

Earlier (like yesterday), I needed to go 5/5 in select games in order to stay alive in this pool.  One of those games was Xavier.  This proves my case that sometimes the pool puts you in a strange position.  It’s no secret that I think Xavier is lucky to be here.  Since UCLA lost already, I can go back to rooting against Xavier here.

I wouldn’t even say that Xavier losing here would be a choke job.  They are supposed to lose here.  They have managed to make it about as far as expected.  I would argue that the true measure of how good a conference or team is is not how many games they win or lose.  I think how many games they wins compared to how many games they were supposed to win is a better measure.  For example, I don’t know that we know a whole lot more about teams like Connecticut, Houston, Alabama, Houston, Xavier, Texas, San Diego State or Kansas State than we did at the start of the tournament.  Each of those teams is where they should be based on the seeds they’ve played so far.  Gonzaga and Florida Atlantic both had to score upsets somewhere along the way to get where they are.  That tells you more about those teams.

This is also the lowest point spread today, and it was larger than 3 of the games yesterday.  It’s also only the second game between teams that are there via the seeds.  The other being Gonzaga / UCLA, and we all saw how fun a game that was.

I’ll be back between games with an updated matrix and eliminations for Games 55 & 56.

Good Luck!!!!!