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Good morning. Games start a little earlier today, so I’ll have the breakdown of both games, and then the eliminations for the 2nd game between games. I kind of like the earlier start times. It allows East Coast viewers to watch “60 Minutes” in its entirety.
With only 21 people left, and only 5 games left – and with
so much red on everyone’s bracket, it seems like every game is either an
elimination game or means nothing. For
example, if Texas wins it all, no other game matters. I already know who the top 4 brackets will be if
Texas wins regardless of any other games.
If Texas loses today, almost all those brackets are eliminated. I feel like that goes for most of the other
outcomes. If more people had more teams alive
at this point, there may be some wiggle room, but no one does. As a matter of fact, the only person to have
both of their finalists still alive is Charlotte N. Everyone else is already missing out on a
potential 16 points. If UConn actually
beats SDSU in the final, Charlotte N. is going to win this pool by 25 points.
Speaking of which, I did hear back about what Charlotte N.
will do with her money if she wins – “A million toys!!”. That checks out. Honestly, that’s what everyone should do with
their winnings.
That leads us into the most important game of the day for me
(and Charlotte N.)
Game 59
San Diego State v Creighton
Vegas Line: Creighton -2.5
Picks for San Diego State: 8
Picks for Creighton: 3
Picks for Other: 221
Fun fact, of the 3 people that picked Creighton to win this
game, 2 of them are already eliminated from winning anything. The only person who is still alive with this
pick is Aaron E. He is a very
interesting case. He is currently
sitting in 223rd place in points with 31 (the current leader in
points has 70). However, he is the only
person who has Creighton winning it all, so if that happens, he will come all
the way back and win the pool.
I think there are a couple of routes to winning this
pool. Because it’s weighted so much
toward the end, you are mostly just competing with other people that picked the
same team to win as you. If you pick one
of the favorites like Alabama or Houston, you are hoping that you can do well
enough in the earlier rounds to win tie-breakers. The other route is to pick a more obscure
team, and hope they win. That way, it almost
doesn’t matter what happens in the earlier rounds because you are competing
with fewer people. The only exception to
this is if the team you picked to win it all loses. Then you are essentially rooting for a team
that no one picked to win. That’s how 10
people that are still alive right now can still win something (including 5
people who could get 1st) even though their pick to win it all is
gone.
As for me, I doubt my heart rate will be below 130 this
entire game. It will be a real challenge
to me, and I will consider it a small victory, if I make it through the game
without wanting to yell at the TV at some point. I asked if the last game was the biggest in
SDSU history, and it may have been.
However, we are in uncharted territory here for the Aztecs, so just
about every game as long as it lasts is probably the biggest game.
Here are the eliminations:
If San Diego State wins:
|
Aaron
E. is eliminated from 1st place contention. |
|
CAAT
#2 (Adam O.) is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention. |
|
CAAT
#4 (Adam O.) is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
|
Noah
N. is eliminated from 1st place contention. |
|
Pete
J. #4 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention. |
|
Pete
J. #5 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. |
|
Quinn1130
(Brett G.) is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention. |
|
Ryan
W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. |
|
Steve
D. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention. |
|
Upset
City (Brett G.) is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
If Creighton Wins:
|
CAAT
#4 (Adam O.) is eliminated from 3rd place contention. |
|
Charlotte
N. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. |
|
Emily
T. is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
|
Hack
a Zach (Dave F.) is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. |
|
Mustard
(Nikolajs B.) is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. |
|
Pete
J. #4 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. |
|
Rob
I. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention. |
|
Ryan
W. is eliminated from 4th place contention. |
|
Steve
D. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. |
Since I probably won’t hve time between games, here’s the
breakdown of Game #60
Texas v Miami-Florida
Vegas Line: Texas -4
Picks for Texas: 67
Picks for Miami-Florida: 6
Picks for Other: 159
I took a look at the updated odds to win the whole
tournament prior to any games being played in the Elite 8. The favorite was Connecticut. Just a little behind them was Texas. That struck me as a little strange since
Texas was the only remaining #2 seed. In
theory, they should be favored to win.
However, Vegas has some different ideas than the people that seeded this
tournament. There have been a number of
games so far where the teams wearing the road jerseys were favored, including
2 of the 4 Elite 8 games. Strangely
enough, both of those “road favorite” teams were from the Big East. Not sure what to make of that – except the
computers love them, and probably for good reason based on how they’ve done.
Anyway, Texas and Miami-Florida. I kind of don’t have a horse in this
race. I imagine I will either be in a
state of euphoria or mildly depressed based on the outcome of the first
game. Much like the first game, I am
kind of surprised there were 6 people that have Miami-Florida in the Final 4. Also, like the first game, only one of those
people is still alive for anything. Steve
D. #1 is alive for all the top 3 spots, but only because he has them going to
the Championship game. Everyone else had
them losing once they got there to Kansas or Gonzaga or UCLA. Nobody has Miami-Florida winning it all – so the
chaos bracket people are certainly pulling for that.
I’ll be back with the eliminations between games. There will only be 16 ways the pool can play
out by then, so it should be a little quicker.
Good Luck!!!!!
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