4th place initial probabilities

OK.  I’ve got 4^th place ready.  Only 17 people are eliminated from 4^th place, and there is a way we can finish with a 7-way tie, which would really suck.

Here are the poor donators to the yearly pool:

Ben W. #1

Bhav R. #1

Bret K. #1

Dan D. #2

Hutch H. #1

J. Mack #1

J. Mack #3

James G. #2

Jaxon S.

Josiah T. #1

Kate G.

Kiah H.

Michelle L. #1

Nick I

Tim N.

Veronica A.

Zach T.

….and the probabilities for 4^th place:

1.: David W. (2.7451%) - North Carolina

2.: Joel B. #1 (2.198%) - Michigan State

3.: Josh D. #3 (1.9351%) - Kentucky

4.: Dustin B. (1.7649%) - Tennessee

5.: Ben S. #3 (1.7307%) - Gonzaga

6.: Kevin F. #3 (1.6462%) - Kentucky

7.: Steve Dz. (1.6388%) - Florida State

8.: Chris M. (1.4898%) - Virginia

9.: Jay H. #2 (1.4811%) - Duke

10.: Szecho L. #1 (1.4594%) - Duke

11.: Jason S. (1.3908%) - Duke

12.: Irene H. #7 (1.3491%) - Tennessee

13.: Joel B. #4 (1.3372%) - Duke

14.: Ryan P. (1.3%) - Michigan

15.: Irene H. #3 (1.28%) - Kentucky

16.: Daisy N. #6 (1.2301%) - Houston

17.: Mike W. (1.1791%) - Virginia

18.: Daisy N. #17 (1.1548%) - Michigan

19.: Ben S. #4 (1.1411%) - North Carolina

20.: Irene H. #4 (1.1372%) - Michigan State

21.: Joe D. #1 (1.1058%) - Duke

22.: Alexander N. #5 (1.0956%) - Michigan

23.: Brent S. #4 (1.0663%) - Duke

24.: Harrell R. #3 (1.0607%) - Duke

25.: Brent S. #2 (1.0417%) - Kentucky

26.: Alex P. (1.0399%) - Auburn

27.: Jim W. (1.0372%) - Michigan State

28.: Josh S. #2 (1.0361%) - Kentucky

29.: Brian K. (0.9834%) - Tennessee

30.: Nikolajs B. (0.9678%) - LSU

31.: Gigi I (0.9537%) - Virginia

32.: Scott Her. #1 (0.9519%) - Duke

33.: Kirt R. #1 (0.9338%) - Gonzaga

34.: Joe D. #2 (0.924%) - Duke

35.: Ally H. (0.9175%) - North Carolina

36.: Stefon K. (0.9162%) - Virginia

37.: Harrell R. #2 (0.8929%) - Tennessee

38.: Joel B. #5 (0.8581%) - North Carolina

39.: Rob I #2 (0.8484%) - Tennessee

40.: Alexander N. #4 (0.8427%) - Virginia

41.: William G. #1 (0.8423%) - Michigan

42.: Daisy N. #5 (0.8413%) - Virginia

43.: Mike S. #2 (0.8301%) - Gonzaga

44.: Daisy N. #12 (0.828%) - Houston

45.: J. Mack #2 (0.8166%) - Kentucky

46.: Ben J. #2 (0.8159%) - Duke

47.: Ben W. #2 (0.7947%) - Duke

48.: Daisy N. #10 (0.7756%) - Tennessee

49.: Stephen H. (0.7706%) - Michigan State

50.: Chris T. #4 (0.7594%) - Gonzaga

51.: Dylan B. (0.746%) - North Carolina

52.: Ben J. #1 (0.7385%) - Virginia

53.: Klei R. #2 (0.7243%) - Texas Tech

54.: Michelle L. #3 (0.7219%) - Gonzaga

55.: Szecho L. #2 (0.7167%) - Gonzaga

56.: Alyssa B. (0.7161%) - Duke

57.: Brent S. #3 (0.7132%) - North Carolina

58.: Jay K. (0.6953%) - Michigan State

58.: Washington Post (0.6953%) - Michigan State

60.: Tomas L. (0.6938%) - Houston

61.: Jay H. #1 (0.6917%) - Virginia

62.: Klei R. #1 (0.6836%) - Virginia

63.: Brent E. #4 (0.6836%) - Michigan State

64.: Max A. #2 (0.683%) - Gonzaga

65.: Becky H. (0.6388%) - Michigan State

66.: Damien R. #3 (0.6317%) - North Carolina

67.: Irene H. #6 (0.6201%) - Kentucky

68.: Stephanie P. (0.6109%) - Michigan

69.: Carlos B. #1 (0.6087%) - Michigan

70.: Dennis R. #2 (0.6041%) - Michigan State

71.: Pete J. #4 (0.5951%) - Gonzaga

72.: Max A. #1 (0.5937%) - Gonzaga

73.: Michelle L. #4 (0.5803%) - North Carolina

74.: Daisy N. #14 (0.5498%) - Kentucky

75.: Josh D. #2 (0.5479%) - North Carolina

76.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.5414%) - Gonzaga

77.: Adam E. #2 (0.5234%) - Virginia

78.: Janahan A. (0.523%) - Duke

79.: Ken Pom (0.4819%) - Virginia

80.: E. Rucker #2 (0.481%) - LSU

81.: Niren D. (0.4756%) - Duke

82.: Irene H. #5 (0.4675%) - North Carolina

83.: E. Rucker #1 (0.4579%) - Duke

84.: Ben S. #2 (0.4527%) - Texas Tech

85.: Ray W. #2 (0.4517%) - Virginia

86.: Chris T. #2 (0.4379%) - North Carolina

87.: Daisy N. #9 (0.4323%) - Gonzaga

88.: Scott Her. #2 (0.4183%) - Duke

89.: Daisy N. #7 (0.4059%) - Virginia

90.: Scott K. #2 (0.4044%) - North Carolina

91.: Todd K. #3 (0.3976%) - Michigan State

92.: Daisy N. #11 (0.3917%) - Duke

93.: Ray W. #4 (0.3906%) - Tennessee

94.: Dan D. #1 (0.386%) - Oregon

95.: Regina L. (0.3845%) - Tennessee

96.: Todd K. #1 (0.3662%) - Michigan State

97.: Taima B. #1 (0.3619%) - Duke

98.: Ben S. #1 (0.3611%) - North Carolina

99.: Ray W. #3 (0.3568%) - Duke

100.: Sagarin Plus (0.3488%) - North Carolina

101.: Michelle R. (0.3458%) - North Carolina

102.: Brent E. #2 (0.3337%) - Michigan State

103.: Taima B. #2 (0.3335%) - North Carolina

104.: Joel B. #2 (0.3321%) - Duke

105.: Mike S. #1 (0.3212%) - North Carolina

106.: Joel B. #3 (0.3174%) - Tennessee

107.: Joel B. #7 (0.3164%) - Virginia

108.: Daisy N. #16 (0.3138%) - Michigan State

109.: Scott K. #1 (0.2968%) - Virginia

110.: Ben J. #4 (0.2899%) - Texas Tech

111.: Tim D. (0.2898%) - Duke

112.: Jim D. #2 (0.2865%) - North Carolina

113.: Michelle L. #5 (0.2838%) - Kentucky

114.: Chris T. #3 (0.2808%) - Virginia

115.: David S. (0.2804%) - North Carolina

116.: Daisy N. #8 (0.2686%) - Virginia

117.: Molly R. (0.2669%) - Gonzaga

118.: Ray W. #5 (0.2622%) - Duke

119.: Matt M. (0.2614%) - Virginia

120.: Bret K. #3 (0.2604%) - Gonzaga

121.: Alexander N. #3 (0.2602%) - Virginia

122.: Josh D. #1 (0.25%) - Duke

123.: Jim P. (0.2482%) - North Carolina

124.: Daisy N. #13 (0.2472%) - North Carolina

125.: Pete J. #3 (0.2307%) - North Carolina

126.: Mason A. #1 (0.2223%) - Duke

127.: Nick V. (0.2192%) - Duke

128.: Rich W. (0.2134%) - Kentucky

129.: Michelle L. #2 (0.2131%) - Virginia

130.: Mason A. #2 (0.213%) - North Carolina

131.: Brad R. (0.2101%) - Gonzaga

132.: Dan C. (0.2075%) - Duke

133.: Alexander N. #1 (0.1977%) - Virginia

134.: Tristan E. (0.1923%) - North Carolina

135.: Irene H. #2 (0.177%) - Virginia

136.: Nate S. - 538 (0.177%) - Duke

137.: Josiah T. #2 (0.177%) - North Carolina

138.: Bret K. #2 (0.176%) - Michigan State

139.: Kevin F. #1 (0.1699%) - Duke

140.: Daisy N. #2 (0.1673%) - Duke

141.: Daisy N. #1 (0.1668%) - Duke

142.: Brent E. #3 (0.164%) - North Carolina

143.: Valerie D. (0.1521%) - Duke

144.: Jessica McG. (0.1506%) - Gonzaga

145.: Daisy N. #15 (0.1444%) - Virginia

146.: Jim D. #1 (0.1399%) - Duke

147.: Brent S. #1 (0.1355%) - Duke

148.: Wayne D. #2 (0.1221%) - Duke

149.: Howard S. (0.1215%) - Virginia

150.: Josiah T. #4 (0.1155%) - Duke

151.: Carlos B. #2 (0.1111%) - Duke

152.: Chrissy I (0.1094%) - Virginia

153.: Adam S. (0.1081%) - Duke

154.: Rob I #1 (0.1078%) - Gonzaga

155.: Jared B. (0.1066%) - Duke

156.: Irene H. #1 (0.1033%) - Duke

157.: Brent E. #1 (0.1022%) - Michigan State

158.: James G. #1 (0.1012%) - Duke

159.: Todd K. #4 (0.0921%) - Virginia

160.: Jeff Sagarin (0.0895%) - Duke

161.: Todd K. #2 (0.086%) - Michigan State

162.: Daisy N. #4 (0.0851%) - Virginia

163.: Wayne D. #1 (0.0845%) - Gonzaga

164.: Luis B. #1 (0.083%) - Duke

165.: Mark D. (0.0799%) - North Carolina

166.: Joel B. #6 (0.0793%) - Michigan State

167.: Marc R. (0.0791%) - Duke

168.: Elizabeth N. #3 (0.0758%) - Virginia

169.: Karim D. (0.0738%) - Duke

170.: Josiah T. #3 (0.07%) - Gonzaga

171.: Jason L. (0.0679%) - Duke

172.: Harrell R. #1 (0.0676%) - North Carolina

173.: Adam E. #1 (0.0671%) - Virginia

174.: Pete J. #5 (0.0669%) - Virginia

175.: Elizabeth N. #2 (0.0651%) - Duke

176.: Hutch H. #2  (0.061%) - North Carolina

177.: Ray W. #1 (0.0595%) - Duke

178.: Chris T. #1 (0.0577%) - Duke

179.: Damien R. #4 (0.0544%) - Duke

180.: Dennis R. #1 (0.0488%) - Duke

181.: Chad L. (0.0478%) - North Carolina

182.: Kirt R. #2 (0.047%) - Duke

183.: Noah N. (0.0458%) - Duke

184.: Alex I (0.0427%) - Virginia

185.: Jay Bilas (0.0402%) - North Carolina

185.: Matt N. (0.0402%) - North Carolina

187.: Damien R. #1 (0.0331%) - Duke

187.: Ryan W. (0.0331%) - Duke

189.: Dan D. (0.0326%) - Duke

190.: Pete J. #2 (0.032%) - Duke

191.: Wayne D. #3 (0.0292%) - North Carolina

192.: Ben P. (0.029%) - Duke

192.: Luis B. #2 (0.029%) - Duke

194.: Daisy N. #3 (0.0259%) - North Carolina

195.: Craig McG. (0.0234%) - Duke

196.: Andy P. (0.0214%) - Duke

197.: Bhav R. #2 (0.0193%) - Virginia

198.: Alexander N. #2 (0.0183%) - Duke

199.: Craig G. (0.0137%) - Duke

199.: Mike N. (0.0137%) - Duke

201.: Jacob A. (0.0127%) - Duke

202.: Josh S. #1 (0.0122%) - Duke

202.: Kevin F. #2 (0.0122%) - Kentucky

202.: Pete J. #1 (0.0122%) - Duke

202.: William G. #2 (0.0122%) - North Carolina

206.: Bryce S. (0.0107%) - North Carolina

207.: Ben J. #3 (0.0061%) - Gonzaga

207.: Brett W. (0.0061%) - North Carolina

207.: Jackson I (0.0061%) - Duke

210.: Damien R. #2 (0.0046%) - Duke

I love seeing all the Duke and North Carolina picks at the bottom here.  That’s the downside of picking the favorite.  You kind of have to do good in the first two rounds to have a realistic shot.  This year, because so money people did well in those rounds, you also have to more or less nail most of the remaining games too.  Wow.  Last year, the winner had 135/192 points (70%).  This year it seems likely to me that the winner will have somewhere in the 165 – 170 range.  That’s a lot of good picking.  I’ll post the spreadsheets I used for calculating the odds so you can play with them yourself if you want.

Good luck to all!!