Initial Probabilities for 1st place

OK.  I just calculated the probabilities currently for 1^st place.  There are currently 155 entries that still have some way they can win.  In some of them, you may need to win a tie-breaker, but they still count.  Luckily, the worst scenario I’ve got is a 5-way tiebreaker.  I’m hoping it doesn’t come down to that.

Remember that just because you can’t win, doesn’t mean you are dead for any of the other payouts.  I haven’t calculated those yet.  I’ll try to get to those tonight if I can.

Here’s the entries that have no way to get 1^st place:

Adam E. #1

Alexander N. #2

Andy P.

Ben J. #3

Ben J. #4

Ben P.

Ben W. #1

Bhav R. #1

Bhav R. #2

Brad R.

Brent S. #1

Bret K. #1

Bret K. #3

Brett W.

Bryce S.

Chad L.

Chris T. #3

Craig G.

Craig McG.

Daisy N. #1

Daisy N. #17

Daisy N. #3

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Dan D.

Dan D. #2

Dennis R. #1

Elizabeth N. #2

Harrell R. #1

Hutch H. #1

J. Mack #1

J. Mack #3

Jackson I

Jacob A.

James G. #2

Jared B.

Jaxon S.

Jay Bilas

Jeff Sagarin

Jessica McG.

Joel B. #3

Joel B. #6

Josh S. #1

Josiah T. #1

Karim D.

Kate G.

Kevin F. #2

Kiah H.

Luis B. #2

Marc R.

Mark D.

Matt N.

Max A. #1

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #5

Mike N.

Nick I

Noah N.

Pete J. #2

Pete J. #5

Rob I #1

Ryan W.

Tim N.

Todd K. #2

Todd K. #4

Tristan E.

Veronica A.

Wayne D. #1

Wayne D. #3

William G. #1

William G. #2

Zach T.

Here are the initial probabilities for winning.  This year, I included who the person picked as Champion because I think it’s pretty important towards gauging how much you like your chances.  You’ll notice all of the common picks are further down in the standings because there is much more competition for the top spot with those picks.

1.: Steve Dz. (8.3852%) - Florida State

2.: Alex P. (6.8115%) - Auburn

3.: Daisy N. #6 (4.6234%) - Houston

4.: Ben S. #2 (4.5074%) - Texas Tech

5.: E. Rucker #2 (3.83%) - LSU

6.: Ben S. #3 (3.6972%) - Gonzaga

7.: Nikolajs B. (3.3625%) - LSU

8.: Carlos B. #1 (3.157%) - Michigan

9.: Alexander N. #5 (2.8015%) - Michigan

10.: Irene H. #7 (2.7542%) - Tennessee

11.: Dan D. #1 (2.5121%) - Oregon

12.: Josh D. #3 (1.9989%) - Kentucky

13.: Chris M. (1.9185%) - Virginia

14.: Joel B. #1 (1.7225%) - Michigan State

15.: Daisy N. #12 (1.6907%) - Houston

16.: Klei R. #2 (1.6541%) - Texas Tech

17.: Joe D. #2 (1.5553%) - Duke

18.: David W. (1.5289%) - North Carolina

19.: Brent S. #2 (1.3962%) - Kentucky

20.: Kevin F. #3 (1.3728%) - Kentucky

21.: Szecho L. #1 (1.3624%) - Duke

22.: Irene H. #3 (1.357%) - Kentucky

23.: Szecho L. #2 (1.0854%) - Gonzaga

24.: Mike W. (1.0452%) - Virginia

25.: Daisy N. #10 (0.9949%) - Tennessee

26.: Mike S. #2 (0.971%) - Gonzaga

27.: Jim W. (0.9626%) - Michigan State

28.: Irene H. #6 (0.9379%) - Kentucky

29.: Becky H. (0.8743%) - Michigan State

30.: Dustin B. (0.8698%) - Tennessee

31.: Brent S. #4 (0.8189%) - Duke

32.: Jay H. #1 (0.7935%) - Virginia

32.: Rob I #2 (0.7935%) - Tennessee

34.: Irene H. #4 (0.7515%) - Michigan State

35.: Klei R. #1 (0.7451%) - Virginia

36.: Brian K. (0.6989%) - Tennessee

37.: Dylan B. (0.6747%) - North Carolina

38.: Daisy N. #16 (0.6577%) - Michigan State

39.: Jason S. (0.6302%) - Duke

40.: Jay H. #2 (0.6073%) - Duke

41.: Ally H. (0.5871%) - North Carolina

42.: Daisy N. #5 (0.5646%) - Virginia

43.: Josh D. #2 (0.5609%) - North Carolina

44.: Joel B. #4 (0.5508%) - Duke

45.: Damien R. #3 (0.532%) - North Carolina

46.: Chris T. #4 (0.5295%) - Gonzaga

47.: Michelle L. #3 (0.5188%) - Gonzaga

48.: Jay K. (0.4992%) - Michigan State

48.: Washington Post (0.4992%) - Michigan State

50.: Alexander N. #4 (0.4985%) - Virginia

51.: Scott Her. #1 (0.4954%) - Duke

52.: Chris T. #2 (0.4654%) - North Carolina

53.: Sagarin Plus (0.4639%) - North Carolina

54.: Irene H. #5 (0.4222%) - North Carolina

55.: Stefon K. (0.4171%) - Virginia

56.: Gigi I (0.3988%) - Virginia

57.: Joe D. #1 (0.3967%) - Duke

58.: Brent S. #3 (0.3621%) - North Carolina

59.: Brent E. #4 (0.3616%) - Michigan State

60.: Daisy N. #9 (0.3484%) - Gonzaga

61.: Daisy N. #8 (0.3433%) - Virginia

62.: Alyssa B. (0.3293%) - Duke

63.: Niren D. (0.3189%) - Duke

64.: Harrell R. #3 (0.3036%) - Duke

64.: Ray W. #4 (0.3036%) - Tennessee

64.: Taima B. #1 (0.3036%) - Duke

67.: Pete J. #4 (0.3021%) - Gonzaga

68.: Ryan P. (0.293%) - Michigan

68.: Stephen H. (0.293%) - Michigan State

70.: Taima B. #2 (0.2848%) - North Carolina

71.: Ken Pom (0.2777%) - Virginia

72.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.2686%) - Gonzaga

73.: Ray W. #2 (0.2589%) - Virginia

74.: Todd K. #3 (0.2474%) - Michigan State

75.: Ben J. #1 (0.2431%) - Virginia

76.: Ben W. #2 (0.235%) - Duke

76.: Tomas L. (0.235%) - Houston

78.: Max A. #2 (0.2319%) - Gonzaga

79.: E. Rucker #1 (0.2309%) - Duke

80.: Kirt R. #1 (0.2258%) - Gonzaga

81.: Josh S. #2 (0.2167%) - Kentucky

82.: Matt M. (0.2075%) - Virginia

83.: Ray W. #3 (0.2045%) - Duke

84.: Scott K. #2 (0.2029%) - North Carolina

85.: Michelle R. (0.1984%) - North Carolina

86.: Ben J. #2 (0.1984%) - Duke

87.: Ben S. #4 (0.1923%) - North Carolina

88.: Harrell R. #2 (0.1801%) - Tennessee

89.: Janahan A. (0.1766%) - Duke

90.: Michelle L. #4 (0.1755%) - North Carolina

91.: Jim P. (0.1694%) - North Carolina

92.: Scott K. #1 (0.1638%) - Virginia

93.: Irene H. #2 (0.1617%) - Virginia

94.: Daisy N. #11 (0.1561%) - Duke

95.: Pete J. #3 (0.1447%) - North Carolina

96.: Daisy N. #7 (0.1404%) - Virginia

97.: Mike S. #1 (0.1358%) - North Carolina

98.: Scott Her. #2 (0.1333%) - Duke

99.: Adam E. #2 (0.1282%) - Virginia

100.: Dennis R. #2 (0.1279%) - Michigan State

101.: Joel B. #5 (0.1221%) - North Carolina

102.: Brent E. #2 (0.119%) - Michigan State

103.: Joel B. #2 (0.116%) - Duke

103.: Nick V. (0.116%) - Duke

105.: Ben S. #1 (0.1114%) - North Carolina

106.: J. Mack #2 (0.1053%) - Kentucky

107.: Daisy N. #2 (0.0961%) - Duke

107.: Daisy N. #4 (0.0961%) - Virginia

109.: Brent E. #3 (0.0946%) - North Carolina

110.: Chrissy I (0.0885%) - Virginia

111.: Joel B. #7 (0.0824%) - Virginia

112.: Wayne D. #2 (0.0819%) - Duke

113.: Dan C. (0.0793%) - Duke

114.: Ray W. #5 (0.0772%) - Duke

115.: Josh D. #1 (0.0768%) - Duke

116.: Alexander N. #3 (0.0748%) - Virginia

117.: Daisy N. #14 (0.0732%) - Kentucky

118.: David S. (0.068%) - North Carolina

119.: Todd K. #1 (0.0671%) - Michigan State

120.: Alexander N. #1 (0.0656%) - Virginia

121.: Tim D. (0.0636%) - Duke

122.: Nate S. - 538 (0.061%) - Duke

123.: Daisy N. #13 (0.0565%) - North Carolina

124.: Regina L. (0.0534%) - Tennessee

125.: Molly R. (0.0509%) - Gonzaga

126.: Adam S. (0.0473%) - Duke

127.: Carlos B. #2 (0.0412%) - Duke

128.: Josiah T. #2 (0.0366%) - North Carolina

129.: Elizabeth N. #3 (0.0336%) - Virginia

129.: James G. #1 (0.0336%) - Duke

131.: Jim D. #2 (0.0305%) - North Carolina

132.: Josiah T. #4 (0.0244%) - Duke

132.: Kevin F. #1 (0.0244%) - Duke

132.: Mason A. #1 (0.0244%) - Duke

132.: Valerie D. (0.0244%) - Duke

136.: Luis B. #1 (0.0238%) - Duke

137.: Howard S. (0.0214%) - Virginia

137.: Hutch H. #2  (0.0214%) - North Carolina

139.: Irene H. #1 (0.0168%) - Duke

140.: Alex I (0.0153%) - Virginia

140.: Bret K. #2 (0.0153%) - Michigan State

140.: Daisy N. #15 (0.0153%) - Virginia

140.: Michelle L. #2 (0.0153%) - Virginia

144.: Chris T. #1 (0.0128%) - Duke

145.: Jim D. #1 (0.0122%) - Duke

145.: Josiah T. #3 (0.0122%) - Gonzaga

145.: Pete J. #1 (0.0122%) - Duke

145.: Stephanie P. (0.0122%) - Michigan

149.: Damien R. #4 (0.0092%) - Duke

149.: Mason A. #2 (0.0092%) - North Carolina

151.: Kirt R. #2 (0.0086%) - Duke

152.: Rich W. (0.0081%) - Kentucky

153.: Jason L. (0.0066%) - Duke

154.: Brent E. #1 (0.0061%) - Michigan State

155.: Ray W. #1 (0.0015%) - Duke

If you see your name here, I’ll be back later this week to tell you if any games on Thursday can knock you out of the pool.  The goal from here on out is to not get eliminated.  Good luck!!!!!