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I’ve uploaded my spreadsheets for calculating the
probabilities for 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th
place. If you are curious about the scenarios
that you’ll need to get any of those places, here’s how you do it:
Go to the spreadsheet for the place you want to know about.
All the game winners are in the first 16 columns. The first 8 are the winners of the Sweet 16,
Then the Elite 8 games, and so forth.
All the remaining columns are entry names with a bunch of 0s, and a few
non-0’s.
Find your entry. Make
sure that the filters are the column header.
Filter so that there only non-0s under your entry name. Once you do, you will see all the way the
games can play that will give you 1st place (if you are in the 1st
place file).
If you see a “1”, that means you would win that place if
that scenario happened. If you see
something like “0.5” that means that you would need to either win or lose a 2-way
tiebreaker to get that spot.
Using this spreadsheet, you can figure out what teams you
need to root for in the next round and all subsequent rounds. I’ll post something about those tonight if I
can. It’s a little more complicated.
Also, if you notice the “Picks” spreadsheet, I have started
to fill in the matrix. I did this last
year, and I liked it. It looks like
this:
|
Name
|
1st Place
|
2nd Place
|
3rd Place
|
4th Place
|
|
Ben S. #3
|
3.6972%
|
1.7832%
|
1.8903%
|
1.7307%
|
|
Irene H. #7
|
2.7542%
|
2.0081%
|
1.8224%
|
1.3491%
|
|
Niren D.
|
0.3189%
|
0.2258%
|
0.3504%
|
0.4756%
|
|
Scott Her. #1
|
0.4954%
|
0.6116%
|
0.8313%
|
0.9519%
|
|
David W.
|
1.5289%
|
1.0483%
|
1.1749%
|
2.7451%
|
|
Chris
T. #2
|
0.4654%
|
0.7467%
|
0.5890%
|
0.4379%
|
|
Alex P.
|
6.8115%
|
0.5376%
|
0.9079%
|
1.0399%
|
|
James G. #1
|
0.0336%
|
0.0595%
|
0.1216%
|
0.1012%
|
|
Brent
S. #1
|
Initial
|
0.0397%
|
0.1040%
|
0.1355%
|
The probabilities in the matrix are the same ones that I’ve
sent out in other posts. As they change,
I will update this matrix. Once you’ve
been eliminated from one of the places, I’ll add the name of the team that lost
to knock you out. If it says “Initial”,
that means you’ve already been mathematically eliminated from that payout. If you want to know your probability of
winning anything, you can add up your
probabilities for 1-4, or you can scroll over to column CW in the spreadsheet,
and that info is there as well.
Here are the spreadsheets:
Scoring Spreadsheet:
1st place:
2nd place:
3rd place:
4th place:
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