6 games in edition

Here’s something I can’t quite reconcile with the tournament now that we are 6 games in.  Underdogs are 6/6 against the point spread, but they are only 1/6 actually winning those games.  These aren’t huge point spreads.  Most of them are in the 5-7 point range.  The favorites win, but they are barely winning.  If anything, I’ve been more impressed with the teams that have lost today than with the teams that have won.

Kansas looks like they may break that trend, as they are winning pretty handily against Northeastern.  Then again, there’s still plenty of time left.  If this tournament has showed us anything so far, they will make a run in the second half, come close, and then lose in the last 2-3 minutes.

I was really pulling for Belmont.  I love the mid-majors.  I say that, but I picked Maryland to beat LSU in the next round, so like many of the times in this tournament, I’m really conflicted between what my heart wants (upsets) and what my head wants (my picks to win).  I love this tournament partly for that tension.

So, we are down to 19 perfect brackets.  I am always interested in computer predictive models, so I entered a bunch of them in the pool.  If you see Ken Pom, Jeff Sag, Nate S. – 538 or Washington Post in the standings, it’s because I entered picks based on the computer modelling that they did.  I also entered Jay Bilas’s bracket mostly because you had to sign in to see Seth Davis’s bracket and I needed at least one studio “analyst” to beat up on when their picks inevitably fall apart.  Anyway, Washington Post still has a perfect bracket 6 games in.  That’s the best of the computer models I have in there.

Here are the updated standings after 6 games:

1. Bhav R. #1: 6 (0)

1. Brent S. #3: 6 (0)

1. Daisy N. #6: 6 (0)

1. Dan D. #2: 6 (0)

1. David W.: 6 (0)

1. Dennis R. #1: 6 (0)

1. Dennis R. #2: 6 (0)

1. Irene H. #5: 6 (0)

1. Irene H. #7: 6 (0)

1. Jacob A.: 6 (0)

1. Jaxon S.: 6 (0)

1. Jay K.: 6 (0)

1. Joel B. #5: 6 (0)

1. Karim D.: 6 (0)

1. Klei R. #1: 6 (0)

1. Ray W. #1: 6 (0)

1. Ray W. #5: 6 (0)

1. Scott K. #2: 6 (0)

1. Washington Post: 6 (0)

20. Adam S.: 5 (-1)

20. Alex P.: 5 (-1)

20. Alexander N. #4: 5 (-1)

20. Ally H.: 5 (-1)

20. Alyssa B.: 5 (-1)

20. Andy P.: 5 (-1)

20. Becky H.: 5 (-1)

20. Ben P.: 5 (-1)

20. Ben S. #3: 5 (-1)

20. Ben W. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Brent S. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Brent S. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Brent S. #4: 5 (-1)

20. Bret K. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Bret K. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Bret K. #3: 5 (-1)

20. Carlos B. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Carlos B. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Chris T. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Chris T. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Chris T. #4: 5 (-1)

20. Chrissy I: 5 (-1)

20. Craig G.: 5 (-1)

20. Daisy N. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Daisy N. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Daisy N. #5: 5 (-1)

20. Damien R. #3: 5 (-1)

20. Damien R. #4: 5 (-1)

20. Dan D.: 5 (-1)

20. David S.: 5 (-1)

20. Dylan B.: 5 (-1)

20. E. Rucker #1: 5 (-1)

20. E. Rucker #2: 5 (-1)

20. Hutch H. #2 : 5 (-1)

20. Irene H. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Irene H. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Irene H. #3: 5 (-1)

20. Irene H. #4: 5 (-1)

20. J. Mack #2: 5 (-1)

20. James G. #1: 5 (-1)

20. James G. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Janahan A.: 5 (-1)

20. Jeff Sagarin: 5 (-1)

20. Jim P.: 5 (-1)

20. Joe D. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Joel B. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Joel B. #6: 5 (-1)

20. Joel B. #7: 5 (-1)

20. Josh D. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Josiah T. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Josiah T. #4: 5 (-1)

20. Kate G.: 5 (-1)

20. Ken Pom: 5 (-1)

20. Kevin F. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Kevin F. #3: 5 (-1)

20. Kirt R. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Kirt R. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Mason A. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Matt M.: 5 (-1)

20. Max A. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Max A. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Michelle R.: 5 (-1)

20. Mike W.: 5 (-1)

20. Nate S. - 538: 5 (-1)

20. Nick I: 5 (-1)

20. Niren D.: 5 (-1)

20. Pete J. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Scott Her. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Scott Her. #2: 5 (-1)

20. Scott K. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Stephanie P.: 5 (-1)

20. Stephen H.: 5 (-1)

20. Szecho L. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Tim D.: 5 (-1)

20. Todd K. #1: 5 (-1)

20. Tomas L.: 5 (-1)

20. Zach T.: 5 (-1)

97. Ben J. #2: 5 (-3)

97. Brad R.: 5 (-3)

97. Chad L.: 5 (-3)

97. Chris T. #3: 5 (-3)

97. Craig McG.: 5 (-3)

97. Daisy N. #11: 5 (-3)

97. Daisy N. #12: 5 (-3)

97. Daisy N. #13: 5 (-3)

97. Luis B. #2: 5 (-3)

97. Mike S. #1: 5 (-3)

97. Mike S. #2: 5 (-3)

97. Taima B. #1: 5 (-3)

97. Taima B. #2: 5 (-3)

97. Todd K. #2: 5 (-3)

97. Valerie D.: 5 (-3)

112. Brian K.: 5 (-7)

112. Molly R.: 5 (-7)

112. Todd K. #4: 5 (-7)

115. Adam E. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Brett W.: 4 (-2)

115. Chris M.: 4 (-2)

115. Daisy N. #17: 4 (-2)

115. Daisy N. #3: 4 (-2)

115. Damien R. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Dustin B.: 4 (-2)

115. Elizabeth N. #1: 4 (-2)

115. Elizabeth N. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Elizabeth N. #3: 4 (-2)

115. Gigi I: 4 (-2)

115. Harrell R. #1: 4 (-2)

115. Harrell R. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Harrell R. #3: 4 (-2)

115. Jason S.: 4 (-2)

115. Jay H. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Jessica McG.: 4 (-2)

115. Jim D. #1: 4 (-2)

115. Jim D. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Joe D. #1: 4 (-2)

115. Joel B. #1: 4 (-2)

115. Josh D. #3: 4 (-2)

115. Josh S. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Josiah T. #3: 4 (-2)

115. Kevin F. #2: 4 (-2)

115. Kiah H.: 4 (-2)

115. Mason A. #1: 4 (-2)

115. Michelle L. #3: 4 (-2)

115. Michelle L. #4: 4 (-2)

115. Nikolajs B.: 4 (-2)

115. Pete J. #3: 4 (-2)

115. Pete J. #4: 4 (-2)

115. Regina L.: 4 (-2)

115. Ryan P.: 4 (-2)

115. Sagarin Plus: 4 (-2)

115. Steve Dz.: 4 (-2)

115. Veronica A.: 4 (-2)

115. Wayne D. #2: 4 (-2)

153. Ben S. #4: 4 (-4)

153. Ben W. #1: 4 (-4)

153. Brent E. #2: 4 (-4)

153. Brent E. #3: 4 (-4)

153. Brent E. #4: 4 (-4)

153. Bryce S.: 4 (-4)

153. Daisy N. #10: 4 (-4)

153. Daisy N. #14: 4 (-4)

153. Daisy N. #4: 4 (-4)

153. Daisy N. #7: 4 (-4)

153. Daisy N. #8: 4 (-4)

153. Daisy N. #9: 4 (-4)

153. Dan D. #1: 4 (-4)

153. Hutch H. #1: 4 (-4)

153. Jared B.: 4 (-4)

153. Jay Bilas: 4 (-4)

153. Jim W.: 4 (-4)

153. Joel B. #3: 4 (-4)

153. Joel B. #4: 4 (-4)

153. Josh S. #1: 4 (-4)

153. Luis B. #1: 4 (-4)

153. Marc R.: 4 (-4)

153. Matt N.: 4 (-4)

153. Michelle L. #1: 4 (-4)

153. Michelle L. #2: 4 (-4)

153. Michelle L. #5: 4 (-4)

153. Mike N.: 4 (-4)

153. Noah N.: 4 (-4)

153. Pete J. #1: 4 (-4)

153. Ray W. #3: 4 (-4)

153. Szecho L. #2: 4 (-4)

153. Todd K. #3: 4 (-4)

185. Alex I: 4 (-8)

185. Bhav R. #2: 4 (-8)

185. J. Mack #1: 4 (-8)

188. Rob I #1: 4 (-10)

189. Daisy N. #15: 4 (-16)

189. J. Mack #3: 4 (-16)

191. Irene H. #6: 3 (-3)

191. Josiah T. #1: 3 (-3)

191. Stefon K.: 3 (-3)

194. Alexander N. #5: 3 (-5)

194. Ben J. #1: 3 (-5)

194. Ben S. #1: 3 (-5)

194. Ben S. #2: 3 (-5)

194. Brent E. #1: 3 (-5)

194. Daisy N. #16: 3 (-5)

194. Damien R. #1: 3 (-5)

194. Dan C.: 3 (-5)

194. Howard S.: 3 (-5)

194. Jackson I: 3 (-5)

194. Jason L.: 3 (-5)

194. Jay H. #1: 3 (-5)

194. Mark D.: 3 (-5)

194. Pete J. #5: 3 (-5)

194. Rob I #2: 3 (-5)

194. Ryan W.: 3 (-5)

194. Tristan E.: 3 (-5)

211. Alexander N. #1: 3 (-7)

211. Alexander N. #2: 3 (-7)

211. Alexander N. #3: 3 (-7)

211. Klei R. #2: 3 (-7)

211. Nick V.: 3 (-7)

211. Ray W. #2: 3 (-7)

211. Wayne D. #1: 3 (-7)

218. Josh D. #1: 3 (-11)

219. Adam E. #1: 2 (-6)

219. Ben J. #3: 2 (-6)

219. Ben J. #4: 2 (-6)

219. Ray W. #4: 2 (-6)

219. William G. #1: 2 (-6)

224. Wayne D. #3: 2 (-8)

225. Rich W.: 2 (-10)

226. Tim N.: 2 (-12)

226. William G. #2: 2 (-12)

Now that the morning games have all started, they are going to switch to a different schedule for the afternoon games, and they will be going off more or less 4 at a time.  Here are the details for the next 4 games:

Picks for Nevada: 141

Picks for Florida: 86

Vegas Line: Nevada -2.5

This game is a classic matchup of good mid-major school vs. mediocre big name college.  Nevada has been ranked the entire season, while Florida has more or less flirted with .500 all season.  Given that I have a degree from a Mountain West school, you can probably guess which team I am rooting for.  Besides, I am not a fan of teams with 14 losses even making the tournament.  I’d rather see UNC-Greensboro.

Picks for Kentucky: 227

Picks for Abilene Christian: 0

Vegas Line: Kentucky -21.5

OK, so this game very probably will be terrible.  There is a good reason for me to watch this game.  Much like Yale in the morning games, I will be wearing my Abilene Christian T-shirt this afternoon.  Why do I have such a t-shirt?  Because I have a t-shirt buying problem.  I also am here for the Wildcat on Wildcat action.  It’s like the two teams could just use the same mascot.  Good times!!!

Picks for Villanova: 148

Picks for St. Mary’s: 79

Point Spread: Villanova -4.5

Probably one of the better games of this slate.  Villanova is the defending champ, but if you read the distribution of picks in a previous post, you know that no one is picking them to repeat.  St. Mary’s is another data point for my case for mid-majors getting into the tournament.  If they didn’t beat Gonzaga in the WCC Finals, they probably wouldn’t have made the field, which is nuts.  I’d take them over Ohio State every day.  Ugh, mediocre power conferences.  They are the worst.

Picks for Gonzaga: 227

Picks for Fairleigh Dickinson: 0

Vegas Line: Gonzaga -27.5

In Vegas, there is a bet you can take that is an over/under on the biggest final point difference in the first round.  I think this game could really push the over on that bet (it’s 38.5, in case you are interested).  FDU won a play-in game, so it’s all house money.  My guess is that once they get down 10 points or so (which could be within 3 minutes of tip off), they will feel good about the win on Wednesday and start playing for fun and wind up getting run out of the gym.  Of course, I’d be happy to be wrong about that, but that seems like a possible outcome.

Again, here is the scoring spreadsheet:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1zi_wTuDwtk0gz5CvmhywrD7PyELvzCHM