Monday, March 25, 2019

Who to root for and how hard in the next round A - Jason S.


I used to do this by hand, which looking at it now, seems crazy.  This is a ton of data.

Here’s how you use this.  As of right now, if you have a path to winning the pool, this sheet will tell you who needs to win their next game to improve your chances.  Let’s take Nick V.’s picks as an example:

Nick V.
Ways to Win: 43
Texas Tech
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Duke
71.43%
Purdue
61.90%
Auburn
57.14%
Michigan State
52.38%
Gonzaga
50.00%


The 100% indicates that Nick needs Texas Tech, Virginia and Houston all to win to stay alive.  If ANY of those teams lose, he is mathematically eliminated from 1st place.  If they all win, it doesn’t mean he is out of the woods, as some combination of losses could also knock him out, but that’s a little harder to quantify.  For example, if Virginia Tech, Tennessee and North Carolina all win, that combo of games may knock him out, even though one particular game wouldn’t (at this point).  The other feature is the 50% game.  This is a game that Nick can relax while watching because the outcome will have no affect on his probability of winning regardless of who wins.

So, if you want to see who you should be rooting for and how hard in the next games, I would suggest using the “find” function, because this is a pretty large post.

Adam E. #2
Ways to Win: 44
Gonzaga
100.00%
Michigan
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
Virginia
95.35%
Kentucky
90.70%
LSU
72.09%
Auburn
58.14%
Virginia Tech
55.81%
Adam S.
Ways to Win: 17
Gonzaga
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
Auburn
100.00%
Texas Tech
93.75%
Oregon
75.00%
Duke
68.75%
Houston
62.50%
LSU
56.25%
Alex I
Ways to Win: 6
Duke
100.00%
Gonzaga
100.00%
Texas Tech
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
LSU
80.00%
Tennessee
60.00%
Auburn
60.00%
Alex P.
Ways to Win: 2259
Auburn
100.00%
Virginia Tech
54.03%
Purdue
51.02%
Texas Tech
50.93%
Gonzaga
50.71%
Michigan State
50.62%
Virginia
50.44%
Houston
50.44%
Alexander N. #1
Ways to Win: 24
Michigan
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
North Carolina
86.96%
Michigan State
82.61%
Gonzaga
82.61%
Tennessee
82.61%
Houston
82.61%
Duke
52.17%
Alexander N. #3
Ways to Win: 30
Michigan
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Gonzaga
79.31%
Tennessee
79.31%
Michigan State
72.41%
Duke
62.07%
Auburn
55.17%
Alexander N. #4
Ways to Win: 167
Houston
100.00%
Gonzaga
98.80%
Virginia
92.77%
Auburn
59.04%
LSU
57.83%
Purdue
56.02%
Michigan
53.01%
Virginia Tech
51.81%
Alexander N. #5
Ways to Win: 923
Michigan
100.00%
Houston
86.55%
Auburn
61.17%
Virginia
58.13%
Florida State
50.98%
Purdue
50.76%
LSU
50.33%
Duke
50.00%
Ally H.
Ways to Win: 206
Michigan
99.51%
North Carolina
93.17%
Houston
77.56%
Gonzaga
71.22%
Virginia Tech
64.88%
Tennessee
62.93%
Oregon
60.98%
Michigan State
55.12%
Alyssa B.
Ways to Win: 181
Purdue
100.00%
North Carolina
97.78%
Duke
77.78%
Michigan
77.78%
Oregon
70.56%
Kentucky
62.78%
Michigan State
62.22%
Gonzaga
50.56%
Becky H.
Ways to Win: 290
Kentucky
100.00%
Michigan State
98.96%
Auburn
60.55%
Florida State
59.17%
Michigan
57.79%
Purdue
53.63%
Virginia Tech
51.90%
Oregon
50.52%
Ben J. #1
Ways to Win: 105
Florida State
99.04%
Virginia
90.38%
Purdue
84.62%
Virginia Tech
82.69%
Houston
79.81%
Michigan State
73.08%
North Carolina
69.23%
Michigan
57.69%
Ben J. #2
Ways to Win: 75
Texas Tech
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Purdue
94.59%
LSU
81.08%
Duke
72.97%
Auburn
62.16%
Oregon
54.05%
Gonzaga
50.00%
Ben S. #1
Ways to Win: 39
Michigan State
100.00%
Texas Tech
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Duke
86.84%
Tennessee
63.16%
Kentucky
60.53%
Gonzaga
55.26%
Oregon
52.63%
Ben S. #2
Ways to Win: 1735
Texas Tech
100.00%
Tennessee
58.13%
Kentucky
55.71%
North Carolina
51.33%
Gonzaga
51.27%
Oregon
51.10%
LSU
50.98%
Duke
50.87%
Ben S. #3
Ways to Win: 1232
Purdue
90.17%
Gonzaga
88.38%
Virginia Tech
76.44%
Texas Tech
66.29%
Houston
64.50%
North Carolina
57.68%
Oregon
56.70%
Michigan State
50.45%
Ben S. #4
Ways to Win: 64
Virginia Tech
100.00%
Texas Tech
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Houston
73.02%
Florida State
61.90%
Michigan State
52.38%
Virginia
52.38%
Ben W. #2
Ways to Win: 81
Auburn
100.00%
Florida State
88.75%
Tennessee
88.75%
Michigan
78.75%
LSU
77.50%
Kentucky
73.75%
Duke
65.00%
Oregon
52.50%
Brent E. #1
Ways to Win: 3
Duke
100.00%
Michigan State
100.00%
Gonzaga
100.00%
Michigan
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Kentucky
100.00%
Purdue
50.00%
Brent E. #2
Ways to Win: 41
Michigan State
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Gonzaga
85.00%
Michigan
65.00%
Duke
57.50%
Purdue
52.50%
Virginia
50.00%
Brent E. #3
Ways to Win: 35
Purdue
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Gonzaga
85.29%
Duke
67.65%
Michigan State
61.76%
Virginia
61.76%
Michigan
55.88%
Brent E. #4
Ways to Win: 122
Michigan State
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Michigan
85.95%
Purdue
81.82%
Duke
59.50%
Kentucky
57.85%
Virginia
56.20%
Florida State
53.72%
Brent S. #2
Ways to Win: 469
Kentucky
100.00%
LSU
80.34%
Florida State
75.85%
Texas Tech
75.43%
Duke
62.61%
North Carolina
62.39%
Tennessee
61.97%
Virginia
52.14%
Brent S. #3
Ways to Win: 137
LSU
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Texas Tech
92.65%
Kentucky
75.74%
Duke
65.44%
Tennessee
65.44%
Florida State
63.24%
Oregon
55.15%
Brent S. #4
Ways to Win: 290
Kentucky
97.23%
Texas Tech
88.24%
Purdue
78.55%
Auburn
76.82%
Duke
74.39%
LSU
73.01%
Gonzaga
56.40%
Virginia
52.25%
Bret K. #2
Ways to Win: 7
Michigan State
100.00%
Gonzaga
100.00%
Michigan
100.00%
Oregon
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
North Carolina
83.33%
Duke
66.67%
Kentucky
66.67%
Brian K.
Ways to Win: 299
Texas Tech
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
Florida State
83.89%
Kentucky
71.81%
LSU
69.13%
North Carolina
63.76%
Virginia Tech
51.01%
Virginia
50.00%
Carlos B. #1
Ways to Win: 1036
Michigan
100.00%
Kentucky
79.90%
North Carolina
60.58%
Oregon
57.58%
Purdue
54.11%
LSU
53.43%
Florida State
50.53%
Virginia Tech
50.14%
Carlos B. #2
Ways to Win: 22
Tennessee
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Michigan
80.95%
Virginia
80.95%
Duke
71.43%
Michigan State
66.67%
Kentucky
66.67%
Gonzaga
61.90%
Chris M.
Ways to Win: 651
Florida State
99.69%
Virginia
92.15%
Virginia Tech
70.62%
Kentucky
64.92%
Purdue
59.23%
Michigan State
54.31%
Auburn
53.54%
Michigan
50.46%
Chris T. #1
Ways to Win: 6
Duke
100.00%
Gonzaga
100.00%
Texas Tech
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Michigan State
60.00%
Purdue
60.00%
Chris T. #2
Ways to Win: 233
North Carolina
98.28%
Gonzaga
89.66%
Texas Tech
68.97%
Michigan State
62.50%
Virginia Tech
58.19%
Kentucky
56.47%
Oregon
53.88%
Tennessee
53.02%
Chris T. #4
Ways to Win: 197
Gonzaga
100.00%
Virginia
93.88%
Virginia Tech
77.55%
Michigan State
62.24%
Michigan
61.73%
Tennessee
57.65%
Kentucky
54.08%
North Carolina
52.04%
Chrissy I
Ways to Win: 35
Virginia
100.00%
Duke
97.06%
Michigan
88.24%
North Carolina
79.41%
Kentucky
70.59%
Florida State
55.88%
Michigan State
52.94%
Tennessee
52.94%
Daisy N. #10
Ways to Win: 327
Tennessee
100.00%
Michigan State
96.32%
Kentucky
62.58%
Virginia Tech
60.74%
Gonzaga
55.21%
North Carolina
53.07%
Michigan
51.53%
Virginia
50.31%
Daisy N. #11
Ways to Win: 77
Kentucky
100.00%
Michigan
89.47%
Duke
84.21%
Tennessee
75.00%
Michigan State
73.68%
Gonzaga
64.47%
North Carolina
57.89%
Oregon
55.26%
Daisy N. #12
Ways to Win: 555
Michigan
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Tennessee
60.65%
Virginia Tech
57.94%
Oregon
53.79%
Gonzaga
50.90%
LSU
50.54%
North Carolina
50.54%
Daisy N. #13
Ways to Win: 21
Virginia Tech
100.00%
Michigan State
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Michigan
85.00%
Kentucky
60.00%
Gonzaga
55.00%
Virginia
55.00%
Daisy N. #14
Ways to Win: 25
Duke
100.00%
Michigan State
100.00%
Michigan
100.00%
Kentucky
100.00%
Purdue
66.67%
Gonzaga
50.00%
Florida State
50.00%
Virginia
50.00%
Daisy N. #15
Ways to Win: 11
Virginia Tech
100.00%
Michigan
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
LSU
80.00%
Florida State
60.00%
North Carolina
50.00%
Daisy N. #16
Ways to Win: 218
Michigan State
99.08%
Tennessee
95.85%
Michigan
67.74%
Houston
64.06%
Florida State
56.22%
Auburn
53.92%
Duke
52.53%
Virginia
50.69%
Daisy N. #2
Ways to Win: 37
North Carolina
100.00%
Gonzaga
88.89%
Duke
80.56%
Virginia
80.56%
LSU
77.78%
Kentucky
66.67%
Michigan
58.33%
Tennessee
52.78%
Daisy N. #4
Ways to Win: 33
Duke
100.00%
Michigan
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Florida State
62.50%
Auburn
62.50%
LSU
50.00%
Michigan State
50.00%
Daisy N. #5
Ways to Win: 189
Houston
89.36%
Michigan
88.30%
Virginia
86.70%
Michigan State
76.60%
Virginia Tech
75.53%
Tennessee
59.04%
Gonzaga
57.98%
Auburn
51.06%
Daisy N. #6
Ways to Win: 1565
Houston
100.00%
Texas Tech
67.26%
Purdue
56.27%
North Carolina
52.81%
Michigan State
52.69%
Virginia
51.92%
Florida State
50.90%
Virginia Tech
50.51%
Daisy N. #7
Ways to Win: 48
Gonzaga
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Virginia Tech
57.45%
LSU
57.45%
Michigan
53.19%
Tennessee
53.19%
Daisy N. #8
Ways to Win: 125
Virginia
100.00%
Kentucky
83.87%
Duke
81.45%
Gonzaga
72.58%
Michigan
67.74%
Tennessee
65.32%
Auburn
53.23%
LSU
50.00%
Daisy N. #9
Ways to Win: 156
Gonzaga
100.00%
Houston
96.77%
Virginia
84.52%
Duke
70.32%
Texas Tech
68.39%
Tennessee
58.71%
Auburn
56.13%
LSU
53.55%
Damien R. #3
Ways to Win: 186
North Carolina
98.38%
Purdue
96.76%
Michigan
88.65%
Kentucky
83.24%
Florida State
70.81%
LSU
55.14%
Duke
52.97%
Virginia
51.35%
Damien R. #4
Ways to Win: 4
Duke
100.00%
LSU
100.00%
Texas Tech
100.00%
Oregon
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
Auburn
100.00%
Kentucky
100.00%
Gonzaga
66.67%
Dan C.
Ways to Win: 27
Duke
100.00%
Kentucky
100.00%
Gonzaga
92.31%
Michigan State
76.92%
Michigan
76.92%
North Carolina
76.92%
Purdue
65.38%
Virginia
53.85%
Dan D. #1
Ways to Win: 873
Oregon
100.00%
Gonzaga
75.11%
Auburn
63.88%
Virginia Tech
56.88%
Tennessee
56.31%
Texas Tech
55.50%
Michigan State
53.90%
Houston
50.46%
David S.
Ways to Win: 32
LSU
100.00%
Purdue
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Michigan
93.55%
Gonzaga
67.74%
Duke
61.29%
Virginia
51.61%
Kentucky
51.61%
David W.
Ways to Win: 507
Texas Tech
100.00%
North Carolina
92.89%
Houston
63.64%
Virginia Tech
63.24%
Purdue
60.08%
Florida State
52.77%
Michigan State
51.78%
Oregon
50.20%
Dennis R. #2
Ways to Win: 54
Michigan State
100.00%
Kentucky
100.00%
North Carolina
90.57%
Gonzaga
86.79%
Duke
69.81%
Michigan
66.04%
Oregon
52.83%
Purdue
50.94%
Dustin B.
Ways to Win: 290
Tennessee
100.00%
North Carolina
94.12%
Houston
73.70%
Gonzaga
61.59%
Michigan State
59.86%
Michigan
51.90%
Virginia Tech
50.87%
Virginia
50.52%
Dylan B.
Ways to Win: 235
Michigan
100.00%
North Carolina
91.88%
Florida State
87.61%
Houston
76.07%
Virginia Tech
64.53%
Michigan State
61.97%
Purdue
56.84%
Virginia
54.27%
E. Rucker #1
Ways to Win: 106
Kentucky
100.00%
Michigan
92.38%
Florida State
80.95%
LSU
74.29%
Duke
70.48%
Tennessee
67.62%
North Carolina
60.00%
Oregon
59.05%
E. Rucker #2
Ways to Win: 1270
LSU
100.00%
Virginia
71.63%
Tennessee
62.10%
Michigan
61.07%
Auburn
55.00%
Kentucky
51.06%
Gonzaga
50.51%
Duke
50.04%
Elizabeth N. #1
Ways to Win: 89
Gonzaga
100.00%
Kentucky
90.91%
LSU
88.64%
Virginia
81.82%
Duke
65.91%
Tennessee
63.64%
Auburn
57.95%
Michigan
56.82%
Elizabeth N. #3
Ways to Win: 13
Duke
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Gonzaga
66.67%
Tennessee
66.67%
LSU
50.00%
Michigan State
50.00%
Gigi I
Ways to Win: 138
LSU
100.00%
Auburn
97.08%
Virginia
91.24%
Florida State
67.15%
Texas Tech
61.31%
Purdue
55.47%
Kentucky
54.01%
Duke
53.28%
Harrell R. #2
Ways to Win: 60
Michigan State
100.00%
Tennessee
100.00%
Auburn
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Michigan
55.93%
Florida State
54.24%
Duke
52.54%
Virginia
50.85%
Harrell R. #3
Ways to Win: 122
Auburn
100.00%
Florida State
97.52%
Duke
66.94%
Michigan
64.46%
Michigan State
63.64%
Purdue
63.64%
Kentucky
58.68%
Oregon
55.37%
Howard S.
Ways to Win: 8
Duke
100.00%
Gonzaga
100.00%
Texas Tech
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Purdue
100.00%
Auburn
100.00%
Michigan State
57.14%
Kentucky
57.14%
Hutch H. #2
Ways to Win: 9
Duke
100.00%
Michigan State
100.00%
Texas Tech
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Gonzaga
50.00%
Florida State
50.00%
Purdue
50.00%
Irene H. #1
Ways to Win: 7
Duke
100.00%
LSU
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Purdue
100.00%
Michigan
83.33%
North Carolina
83.33%
Kentucky
83.33%
Gonzaga
50.00%
Irene H. #2
Ways to Win: 57
Texas Tech
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Houston
100.00%
Duke
78.57%
Florida State
78.57%
Tennessee
64.29%
LSU
50.00%
Michigan State
50.00%
Irene H. #3
Ways to Win: 468
Kentucky
100.00%
Gonzaga
80.94%
Virginia Tech
71.31%
Tennessee
68.31%
Michigan
56.96%
Michigan State
54.82%
Oregon
53.32%
North Carolina
50.75%
Irene H. #4
Ways to Win: 308
Michigan State
93.81%
Florida State
83.71%
Houston
79.80%
Virginia Tech
77.85%
Michigan
68.40%
Virginia
60.91%
North Carolina
56.03%
Purdue
51.47%
Irene H. #5
Ways to Win: 154
LSU
100.00%
North Carolina
98.04%
Gonzaga
72.55%
Oregon
64.71%
Texas Tech
59.48%
Tennessee
58.82%
Kentucky
56.86%
Duke
52.94%
Irene H. #6
Ways to Win: 350
Kentucky
100.00%
Michigan State
82.23%
Purdue
78.22%
Michigan
59.89%
North Carolina
55.87%
Virginia Tech
55.59%
Gonzaga
53.30%
Oregon
52.44%
Irene H. #7
Ways to Win: 978
Tennessee
99.80%
LSU
78.30%
Auburn
68.78%
Kentucky
66.53%
Michigan
61.82%
Florida State
52.20%
Duke
50.56%
Virginia
50.05%
J. Mack #2
Ways to Win: 44
LSU
100.00%
Gonzaga
100.00%
Kentucky
100.00%
Purdue
90.70%
Duke
86.05%
Michigan
69.77%
Oregon
65.12%
North Carolina
65.12%
James G. #1
Ways to Win: 13
Michigan State
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Purdue
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Duke
83.33%
Michigan
66.67%
Florida State
58.33%
Kentucky
58.33%
Janahan A.
Ways to Win: 79
Michigan
100.00%
North Carolina
100.00%
Florida State
87.18%
Houston
85.90%
LSU
84.62%
Duke
65.38%
Oregon
62.82%
Tennessee
52.56%
Jason L.
Ways to Win: 5
Duke
100.00%
Michigan State
100.00%
Florida State
100.00%
Michigan
100.00%
Virginia
100.00%
Kentucky
100.00%
Purdue
50.00%
Tennessee
50.00%
Jason S.
Ways to Win: 238
Auburn
100.00%
Duke
73.00%
Tennessee
68.35%
Gonzaga
63.71%
Texas Tech
62.03%
LSU
59.49%
Houston
58.23%
Oregon
53.59%

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