That feeling of dread

I’ve got a bad feeling about today.  I am afraid it’s going to be a lot like yesterday, and here’s why:  Remember on Friday when we had upsets in 8/16 games, but none of them were what I’d consider “big” upsets?  It just so happens that those 8 upsets were pretty well spread out among the bracket.  What that means today is that 6 of the 8 games today feature a team in the top 4 seeds vs a team that “upset” a higher seed.  Upset is a term I use pretty loosely here, since Washington, Oklahoma & UCF are all considered “upsets” because they were 9’s that beat an 8.  Of these games, the average point spread is 9.5 points.  The closest game in Vegas is Houston vs. Ohio State at 5.5.  That makes me think that we may not see many upsets today, although I’ll be more than happy to be wrong about that.

Today only features one game where the teams should be there based on the seeds, Texas Tech vs. Buffalo.  I would say that promises to be the game of the day, as it is the closest game based on point spreads.  Both teams looked pretty decent in the opening round.  I’ll have split loyalties again.  My bracket that is super low in the standings has Texas Tech winning it all, but it’s also way back in the standings, so it’s a long shot to win anyway.  I always pull for the MAC team, so who knows who I’ll be rooting for in this one.  Maybe I win either way.

The other game is Oregon / UC Irvine.  This looks to be the only part of the bracket where chaos erupted, although I feel like it’s also a place where people kind of predicted that was going to happen.  65 people can get points in this game, which is pretty good for a 12/13 game.  Fun fact: going back to the regular season, Oregon has covered the spread in its last 9 games.  Given that each game is theoretically a coin flip against the line, this means that Vegas has been dramatically undervaluing Oregon.  I like them and the Anteaters, so I kind of win either way here as well.

One thing to know is that after the games are over today, I will be able to calculate which brackets are still alive for one of the 4 places and what brackets are mathematically eliminated.  I’m guessing a lot more will be in the former category than the latter.

Here are the details for games 1 & 2:

Picks for Tennessee: 193

Picks for Iowa: 11

Picks for Other: 23

Vegas Line: Tennessee -7.5

If this was back in December, I would give Iowa a pretty good chance of pulling the upset here,  Given how bad Iowa played at the end of the season, I was lobbying from them to not make the tournament at all.  Now that they’ve beat Cincinnati, I kind of want them to win this one too.  Strange how my rooting loyalties change as the tournament goes on.  Anyone that picked Cincinnati in Round one should be doing the same.  Tennessee struggled against Colgate, so it seems possible.

Picks for North Carolina: 220

Picks for Washington: 1 (Nick I.)

Picks for Other: 6

Vegas Line: North Carolina -11.5

This game breakdown looks like it belongs to a 3/14 game or a 2/15 game, not a 1/9 game.  I wouldn’t be disappointed if this turned into a Wichita State / Gonzaga situation from 2013.  It seems pretty unlikely, but I’m sure Wichita State winning that game was unlikely as well.  Honestly, I think it’s possible that this game is a blowout.  It doesn’t mean I won’t watch it, it just means that I may get some reading done waiting for it to be over.  Again, I hope I’m wrong.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!!