Initial Probabilities for 3rd place

It looks only 22 entries are currently mathematically eliminated from 3^rd place.  That’s a remarkably low number.  These games on Thursday and Friday promise to be bloodbaths regardless of who wins.

It also looks like there’s a way to have a dreaded 6-way tie for 3^rd place.  Yuck.

Here’s who is out:

Alexander N. #2

Ben W. #1

Bhav R. #1

Bhav R. #2

Bret K. #1

Bryce S.

Dan D. #2

Hutch H. #1

J. Mack #1

J. Mack #3

James G. #2

Jaxon S.

Josiah T. #1

Kate G.

Kevin F. #2

Kiah H.

Michelle L. #1

Nick I

Tim N.

Veronica A.

William G. #2

Zach T.

…and the probabilities for 3^rd place:

1.: Ben J. #4 (3.7933%) - Texas Tech

2.: Daisy N. #12 (3.0446%) - Houston

3.: Tomas L. (2.9017%) - Houston

4.: Carlos B. #1 (2.0987%) - Michigan

5.: Ben S. #3 (1.8903%) - Gonzaga

6.: Chris M. (1.8359%) - Virginia

7.: Klei R. #2 (1.8341%) - Texas Tech

8.: Irene H. #7 (1.8224%) - Tennessee

9.: Szecho L. #1 (1.7376%) - Duke

10.: Dustin B. (1.6678%) - Tennessee

11.: Steve Dz. (1.6027%) - Florida State

12.: Kevin F. #3 (1.5376%) - Kentucky

13.: Jason S. (1.503%) - Duke

14.: Josh D. #3 (1.4758%) - Kentucky

15.: Brent S. #2 (1.3977%) - Kentucky

16.: Harrell R. #3 (1.3443%) - Duke

17.: Nikolajs B. (1.3239%) - LSU

18.: Joe D. #2 (1.3225%) - Duke

19.: Joel B. #1 (1.3222%) - Michigan State

20.: Daisy N. #17 (1.2573%) - Michigan

21.: David W. (1.1749%) - North Carolina

22.: Brent S. #4 (1.1739%) - Duke

23.: Irene H. #3 (1.1614%) - Kentucky

24.: Alexander N. #5 (1.1607%) - Michigan

25.: Mike W. (1.0925%) - Virginia

26.: Irene H. #4 (1.0723%) - Michigan State

27.: Jay H. #2 (1.0523%) - Duke

28.: Brian K. (1.0432%) - Tennessee

29.: Stefon K. (1.0228%) - Virginia

30.: Dan D. #1 (0.9939%) - Oregon

31.: Alexander N. #4 (0.9678%) - Virginia

32.: Josh S. #2 (0.9659%) - Kentucky

33.: Alex P. (0.9079%) - Auburn

34.: Irene H. #6 (0.8986%) - Kentucky

35.: Harrell R. #2 (0.884%) - Tennessee

36.: Jim W. (0.8634%) - Michigan State

37.: Ben S. #4 (0.8591%) - North Carolina

38.: William G. #1 (0.8545%) - Michigan

39.: Jay K. (0.854%) - Michigan State

39.: Washington Post (0.854%) - Michigan State

41.: Daisy N. #10 (0.8393%) - Tennessee

42.: Scott Her. #1 (0.8313%) - Duke

43.: Max A. #1 (0.8209%) - Gonzaga

44.: Daisy N. #6 (0.8008%) - Houston

45.: Gigi I (0.7787%) - Virginia

46.: Daisy N. #5 (0.7772%) - Virginia

47.: Kirt R. #1 (0.7492%) - Gonzaga

48.: Pete J. #4 (0.7401%) - Gonzaga

49.: Ally H. (0.7153%) - North Carolina

50.: Alyssa B. (0.7105%) - Duke

51.: Joel B. #4 (0.7039%) - Duke

52.: Damien R. #3 (0.6966%) - North Carolina

53.: Elizabeth N. #1 (0.6762%) - Gonzaga

54.: Joel B. #5 (0.6612%) - North Carolina

55.: Szecho L. #2 (0.651%) - Gonzaga

56.: Brent E. #4 (0.6485%) - Michigan State

57.: Dylan B. (0.639%) - North Carolina

58.: Max A. #2 (0.6353%) - Gonzaga

59.: Klei R. #1 (0.631%) - Virginia

60.: Daisy N. #9 (0.5931%) - Gonzaga

61.: Chris T. #2 (0.589%) - North Carolina

62.: Mike S. #2 (0.5859%) - Gonzaga

63.: Josh D. #2 (0.5853%) - North Carolina

64.: J. Mack #2 (0.573%) - Kentucky

65.: Becky H. (0.563%) - Michigan State

66.: Chris T. #4 (0.5524%) - Gonzaga

67.: Michelle L. #3 (0.529%) - Gonzaga

68.: Ben J. #1 (0.5287%) - Virginia

69.: Ben W. #2 (0.5259%) - Duke

70.: Janahan A. (0.5241%) - Duke

71.: Rob I #2 (0.5234%) - Tennessee

72.: E. Rucker #1 (0.5185%) - Duke

73.: Adam E. #2 (0.5066%) - Virginia

74.: Todd K. #1 (0.4862%) - Michigan State

75.: Ryan P. (0.4852%) - Michigan

76.: Daisy N. #16 (0.4771%) - Michigan State

77.: Brent E. #2 (0.47%) - Michigan State

78.: Dennis R. #2 (0.4629%) - Michigan State

79.: Ken Pom (0.4435%) - Virginia

80.: Joe D. #1 (0.4389%) - Duke

81.: E. Rucker #2 (0.4377%) - LSU

82.: Mike S. #1 (0.4328%) - North Carolina

83.: Taima B. #1 (0.4191%) - Duke

84.: Stephen H. (0.4166%) - Michigan State

85.: Jay H. #1 (0.414%) - Virginia

86.: Daisy N. #14 (0.413%) - Kentucky

87.: Brent S. #3 (0.4011%) - North Carolina

88.: Ray W. #4 (0.3998%) - Tennessee

89.: Todd K. #3 (0.3875%) - Michigan State

90.: Joel B. #7 (0.3815%) - Virginia

91.: Scott Her. #2 (0.3637%) - Duke

92.: Niren D. (0.3504%) - Duke

93.: Taima B. #2 (0.3457%) - North Carolina

94.: Irene H. #5 (0.3454%) - North Carolina

95.: Daisy N. #7 (0.3443%) - Virginia

96.: Sagarin Plus (0.3432%) - North Carolina

97.: Ray W. #2 (0.3415%) - Virginia

98.: Ben J. #2 (0.3377%) - Duke

99.: Michelle L. #4 (0.3301%) - North Carolina

100.: Ray W. #3 (0.3291%) - Duke

101.: Michelle R. (0.3291%) - North Carolina

102.: Daisy N. #11 (0.3265%) - Duke

103.: Scott K. #2 (0.3113%) - North Carolina

104.: Regina L. (0.3052%) - Tennessee

105.: Scott K. #1 (0.3042%) - Virginia

106.: Joel B. #2 (0.2823%) - Duke

107.: Stephanie P. (0.2767%) - Michigan

108.: David S. (0.2766%) - North Carolina

109.: Ben S. #2 (0.2752%) - Texas Tech

110.: Daisy N. #8 (0.2508%) - Virginia

111.: Jessica McG. (0.2441%) - Gonzaga

112.: Tim D. (0.234%) - Duke

113.: Ben S. #1 (0.2238%) - North Carolina

114.: Michelle L. #5 (0.2228%) - Kentucky

115.: Alexander N. #1 (0.2203%) - Virginia

116.: Josh D. #1 (0.2083%) - Duke

117.: Matt M. (0.2055%) - Virginia

118.: Molly R. (0.2009%) - Gonzaga

119.: Pete J. #3 (0.1989%) - North Carolina

120.: Wayne D. #2 (0.1968%) - Duke

121.: Ray W. #5 (0.1957%) - Duke

122.: Brad R. (0.1938%) - Gonzaga

123.: Joel B. #3 (0.1892%) - Tennessee

124.: Jim P. (0.1826%) - North Carolina

125.: Alexander N. #3 (0.174%) - Virginia

126.: Howard S. (0.1717%) - Virginia

127.: Josiah T. #2 (0.1678%) - North Carolina

128.: Daisy N. #13 (0.1584%) - North Carolina

129.: Mason A. #1 (0.1541%) - Duke

130.: Mason A. #2 (0.1516%) - North Carolina

131.: Irene H. #2 (0.1485%) - Virginia

132.: Jim D. #2 (0.144%) - North Carolina

133.: Daisy N. #1 (0.1434%) - Duke

134.: Brent E. #3 (0.1409%) - North Carolina

135.: Daisy N. #2 (0.1394%) - Duke

136.: Michelle L. #2 (0.1389%) - Virginia

137.: Adam S. (0.1322%) - Duke

138.: Bret K. #2 (0.1236%) - Michigan State

139.: Nate S. - 538 (0.1231%) - Duke

140.: James G. #1 (0.1216%) - Duke

141.: Kevin F. #1 (0.1211%) - Duke

142.: Daisy N. #4 (0.1145%) - Virginia

143.: Mark D. (0.1144%) - North Carolina

144.: Tristan E. (0.1083%) - North Carolina

145.: Brent S. #1 (0.104%) - Duke

146.: Valerie D. (0.0926%) - Duke

147.: Chrissy I (0.0916%) - Virginia

148.: Rich W. (0.0908%) - Kentucky

149.: Nick V. (0.089%) - Duke

150.: Dan C. (0.087%) - Duke

150.: Jim D. #1 (0.087%) - Duke

152.: Daisy N. #15 (0.0837%) - Virginia

153.: Jeff Sagarin (0.0824%) - Duke

154.: Jared B. (0.0768%) - Duke

155.: Bret K. #3 (0.0702%) - Gonzaga

156.: Karim D. (0.0671%) - Duke

157.: Todd K. #4 (0.0671%) - Virginia

158.: Josiah T. #4 (0.0656%) - Duke

159.: Carlos B. #2 (0.0655%) - Duke

160.: Elizabeth N. #3 (0.0651%) - Virginia

161.: Brent E. #1 (0.0648%) - Michigan State

162.: Chris T. #3 (0.0641%) - Virginia

163.: Pete J. #5 (0.0605%) - Virginia

164.: Irene H. #1 (0.0605%) - Duke

165.: Luis B. #1 (0.0587%) - Duke

166.: Jason L. (0.057%) - Duke

167.: Hutch H. #2  (0.0565%) - North Carolina

168.: Joel B. #6 (0.0534%) - Michigan State

169.: Marc R. (0.0488%) - Duke

170.: Mike N. (0.0458%) - Duke

170.: Rob I #1 (0.0458%) - Gonzaga

172.: Harrell R. #1 (0.0422%) - North Carolina

173.: Chris T. #1 (0.0377%) - Duke

174.: Elizabeth N. #2 (0.0366%) - Duke

175.: Damien R. #4 (0.0346%) - Duke

176.: Wayne D. #3 (0.0343%) - North Carolina

177.: Noah N. (0.032%) - Duke

178.: Dennis R. #1 (0.0305%) - Duke

179.: Ray W. #1 (0.029%) - Duke

180.: Kirt R. #2 (0.0276%) - Duke

181.: Daisy N. #3 (0.0275%) - North Carolina

182.: Todd K. #2 (0.0259%) - Michigan State

183.: Alex I (0.0244%) - Virginia

184.: Chad L. (0.0224%) - North Carolina

185.: Damien R. #1 (0.0198%) - Duke

185.: Dan D. (0.0198%) - Duke

185.: Ryan W. (0.0198%) - Duke

188.: Adam E. #1 (0.0183%) - Virginia

188.: Andy P. (0.0183%) - Duke

188.: Jackson I (0.0183%) - Duke

188.: Jay Bilas (0.0183%) - North Carolina

188.: Matt N. (0.0183%) - North Carolina

188.: Pete J. #2 (0.0183%) - Duke

194.: Josiah T. #3 (0.0181%) - Gonzaga

195.: Pete J. #1 (0.0158%) - Duke

196.: Wayne D. #1 (0.0125%) - Gonzaga

197.: Josh S. #1 (0.0122%) - Duke

198.: Ben P. (0.0092%) - Duke

198.: Luis B. #2 (0.0092%) - Duke

200.: Craig McG. (0.0076%) - Duke

201.: Brett W. (0.0061%) - North Carolina

202.: Craig G. (0.0046%) - Duke

202.: Damien R. #2 (0.0046%) - Duke

204.: Ben J. #3 (0.0031%) - Gonzaga

204.: Jacob A. (0.0031%) - Duke