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Good morning. I hope
everyone has recovered from the 1st round. Not many people have brackets that are so bad
that they would think they have no chance of winning. I would argue that even the bracket that is
currently in last place (Ray W. #4) still has a chance to win. He did a terrible job in the first round
(16/32), but he still has all 4 Final 4 teams alive, including a rare Tennessee
/ Michigan final game. If all that
happens, he will probably win. If not
win, at least finish in the top 4 spots.
Even the person that is last in net points rankings, which I
think is even more indicative of overall health (Dan D. #1) has Oregon over
Gonzaga. As the only person to pick
Oregon to win it all, I almost guarantee that if they win, Dan D. #1 will win.
So, there’s plenty of room currently to move up or down. The format today seems like 1 game at a time
for the first 2 games, and then games going off every hour for the last 6. So, here are the particulars about game 1 and
game 2.
Picks for LSU: 118
Picks for Maryland: 40
Picks for Other: 69
Vegas Line: LSU -2
I’m sure that the NCAA doesn’t think about this when they
schedule these things, but this game features a tie for closest point spread of
the day. That makes me think it should be
a pretty good game to start off with. Both
LSU and Maryland won, but did not cover the spread in their opening round games,
so neither of them has really looked that impressive. As I mentioned in the opening round, LSU is
the most vulnerable #3 seed based on pick distribution. Maryland was a trendy pick to lose to Belmont. It’s looking like the deck was pretty stacked
against Belmont getting to the Sweet 16.
They played Tuesday night, then again on Thursday. If they won that game, their reward would
have been the first game of the day on Saturday. That’s a lot of games in a row. I’m sure they wouldn’t mind, but that seems
like a lot to me. Only 42 people have
the winner of this game making it to the Elite 8. This game will be crucial to those people,
but only another 2-point game for everyone else. In a somewhat cruel set of circumstances, if
you were in that “Other” category, you almost definitely want Maryland to win. This is one of my favorite truths about the
pool. If you can’t win, you are best
served with the outcome that damages the most other brackets. It’s a mentality of “if I can’t win, I don’t
want anyone else to win either”. In most
walks of life, that would be highly immature, but here, it’s the best
strategy. For those that don’t think
they have to pay attention because they took Belmont, history has told me that
games like this wind up being important.
You want to minimize the number of points you lose to the field if at
all possible.
Picks for Kentucky: 206
Picks for Wofford: 17
Picks for Other: 4
Vegas Line: Kentucky -5.5
Maybe I’m crazy, but this game reminds me of the UC Irvine /
Kansas State game in the first round.
Kentucky is clearly the better team, but they are missing arguably their
best player, and Wofford is no joke.
They looked legit in the first round.
Abilene Christian didn’t give Kentucky much of a game in the first round,
so I’m not sure if they are good or bad.
This should be a good test for them.
As for me, I’m hitting the elliptical machine this morning. I need the exercise after the last few
days. I weighed myself in this morning,
and I’ve gained about 2.5 pounds over the last two days. That’s a lot.
I’m, well rested and ready for more basketball.
I also started getting payments in the mail yesterday, so
thanks to everyone that has taken care of that.
If I got your payment, you will see your name in green in the scoring
spreadsheet. If it’s still in yellow,
please make sure that you have taken care of that. I’m not running a charity here.
Good luck everyone!!!!!
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